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U.S. Dollar Is Undervalued After Investors Pushed Rate-Hike Expectations Into Far Distance

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of May and we hope for new profitable opportunities and greater willingness on the part of investors to take risks, increasing the volatility on the markets.

Today’s analysis will be brief due to a public holiday.

This week’s main risk event will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday but analysts doubt that the report will help the U.S. dollar strengthen. On the contrary, if labor market data fail to impress, the greenback could be vulnerable to further losses, sending its major peers even higher. Before going into Friday’s report, both ISM indices, scheduled for release on Monday and Wednesday, could help evaluating the payrolls’ possible outcome.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today at 14:00 UTC in Frankfurt, which could affect the euro in the short-term.

Important data and speeches for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

14:00 EUR Draghi speaks

(Time zone: UTC)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Amazing Trading Day: Bad For The ECB But Good For Traders

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Dear Traders,

What an amazing trading day! While the euro’s rise can be characterized as a bitter pill for the European Central Bank as the market’s reaction was certainly not the sort of movement the ECB may have hoped for, it was a very profitable day for traders. Before getting into the reasons for the euro rally let us look back on a very successful trading day. Short-trader’s efforts paid off after the ECB surprised the market with a drop in the benchmark to zero and we got what we have been looking for: +100 pips. Shortly after reaching our profit target the bearish movement was already exhausted and the euro started its relief rally. As if the profit would have not already been enough, just 90 minutes later our long-entry was triggered and we could watch the euro hitting our higher profit target where we have gained another 100 pips profit. The volatile swings in the EUR/USD allowed even more profit but at some point traders should not be profit-greedy and save the winnings.

The ECB delivered a full stimulus package which can be described as even more aggressive step than everyone has expected. That package included cuts in the deposit and benchmark rates, a pledge to increase the monthly QE purchases to 80 billion euros and four more multi-year lending operations (TLTROs). On top of that, the central bank lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017.

So what was finally the reason for the euro’s later uptrend? ECB President Mario Draghi has made a little faux pas when he told reporters after the meeting that “from today’s perspective, we don’t anticipate it will be necessary to reduce rates further.” In other words there is a limit to monetary easing and the central bank has finished cutting rates further. Draghi’s comments thus considerably outweighed the impact of increased stimulus.

EUR/USD

The euro experienced an upside breakout above 1.1070. Given the high volatility and the shift towards a bullish bias the euro could possibly extend its gains towards 1.1245 and 1.13. While we see a current resistance at around 1.13, the next major resistance zone is only at 1.14-1.15. If the pair breaks above 1.1315 a next target is seen at 1.1370 before heeding towards 1.14. However, the bullish move is not a done deal and traders should also bear in mind that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its hawkish policy stance – a fact that could strengthen the U.S. dollar in the medium-term. The former resistance at 1.1070 could now act as a support.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot11.3.16

The ECB announcement also triggered volatility in other currencies such as the British pound. The pound participated in the euro’s uptrend and moved finally higher against the greenback. If the pair breaks significantly above 1.4315 we could see sterling rallying towards 1.44. Remaining below 1.43 lower targets could be at 1.4180.

We wish you a wonderful weekend!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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British Pound Extends Losses

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Dear Traders,

The pound sterling dropped like a stone, breaking easily through $1.4230 after Bank of England governor Mark Carney said that “now is not yet the time to raise interest rates”. He highlighted global economic risks weighing on inflation and said that inflation “will likely remain very low for longer”. His comments dashed investors’ hopes for an early rate hike and sent the pound sharply lower toward its next target at 1.41.

Ahead of Carney’s speech an unexpectedly uptick in core consumer price index has driven GBP to a weekly high at 1.4340, which now marks a faraway resistance for the currency pair. We will now turn our focus to the next lower barrier at 1.41. A sustained break below that level could push sterling towards 1.4050 and 1.40, important price levels where the cable may gain some ground. However, upward movements could currently be limited until 1.42 and 1.4235.

Today we will focus on the next important economic report from U.K. which will be labor market data, due at 9:30 GMT, here in particular Average Weekly Earnings. Wages are forecast to show a decline, which could put further pressure on the currency.

The EUR/USD marked a current support at 1.0859 from where it started a relief rally toward its resistance area at 1.0985. In case of a renewed test of this resistance it should be interesting whether the euro will be able to break above 1.10, pointing towards a higher target at 1.1035. However, the current upward momentum could be deceptive ahead the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow. ECB president Mario Draghi may deliver a more dovish than-expected message to talk down the euro. Euro traders should prefer to turn their focus to a downside break of 1.0830 and 1.08 rather than an upside break of 1.0985.

We have some interesting U.S. data scheduled for release today. U.S. Consumer Prices are due at 13:30 GMT along with the release of U.S. Building Permits. If CPI figures surprise to the upside, the greenback could trade higher against its major peers. 

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

How Low Can Euro And Sterling Go?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar advanced to new highs against the euro and British pound. The greenback resumed its uptrend in expectation the Fed will hike next month while other central banks are biased to ease. The euro weakened toward a fresh low of 1.06 after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi encouraged speculation the ECB will increase stimulus next week. Draghi said Friday the central bank will do what it must to raise inflation “as quickly as possible”. The euro could thus be vulnerable to further losses ahead of the ECB’s next policy decision on December 3.

Nonetheless, traders should be cautious with short positions as central bank actions are mostly priced in. The downtrend in the EUR/USD may come to a temporary halt at 1.0585, 1.0560 or 1.0520.

This week is a shortened holiday-trading week as U.S. markets will remain closed for Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. Important economic reports are scheduled for release on Tuesday and Wednesday with U.S. Gross Domestic Product, Personal Consumption, Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders.

Important eurozone reports are due for release today with the Eurozone’s PMI reports and Tuesday with the German IFO Business Climate.

Sterling traders should watch the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Friday. While GBP may find a short-term support at 1.5150, key support levels could only be at 1.51 and 1.5030. Resistances are seen at 1.52 and 1.5240.

This week starts off with important data releases such as German Services and Manufacturing PMI reports at 8:30 GMT, Eurozone’s PMI reports at 9:00 GMT and U.S. Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

We wish you a good start to the new week!

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Trades Sideways, Cable Lacks Direction

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Dear Traders,

There was only little consistency in the currencies’ performances yesterday. While the euro preferred to trade sideways, the cable has been torn between better than expected U.K. PMI data and the neutral outcome in U.S. Manufacturing. GBP/USD still remains below 1.55 and traders are wondering if the Inflation report, scheduled for release on Thursday, could help the pound for a break through its key resistance.

Let’s wait and see. Before “Super Thursday” we will keep an eye on the U.K. PMI reports. The U.K. Construction PMI is due for release at 9:30 GMT today. Furthermore U.S. Factory Orders are scheduled for release today at 15:00 GMT but this report is unlikely to have a significant impact on the USD.

ECB president Draghi will speak at the opening of the European Cultural Days today at 19:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

No big market moves

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s price action remained relatively moderate. The highly anticipated U.S. ISM index fell short of the forecast but failed to trigger big market moves. The British pound tested the area slightly above 1.5240 but sold off sharply in response to weaker U.K. PMI reports. The support zone around 1.5130/10 still remains intact for the time being. A break below 1.51 could drive the cable towards 1.5010.

The euro, however, offered some gains for both sides. After a test of 1.1290, the currency pair turned into an intraday downtrend. A current support can be found at 1.1170. Below that level we will turn our focus to the 1.11-mark again.

Today, there are only second-tier economic reports scheduled for release, which could have a limited impact on the currencies.

7:30 EUR Germany Construction PMI

12:30 USA Trade Balance

17:00 EUR ECB president Draghi speaks

21:30 USA Fed’s Williams speaks

(timezone: GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Yellen sends clear signal

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Dear Traders,

While the British Pound tortured traders with fake-outs and choppy moves, the euro was heading for a test of the 1.13-area. The short recovery in the EUR/USD was still driven by Mario Draghi’s comments, who said on Wednesday that ECB policy makers will wait before discussing on a QE extension. After failing at $ 1.13, dollar bulls took control and drove the pair back below $ 1.12.

The U.S. dollar received support from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen saying that the Fed is on track to raise rates this year. During her speech in Amherst, Massachusetts, she sent a clear signal, that Fed policy makers believe that a rate hike is appropriate this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter.

What is important for today?

Revisions to second-quarter U.S. GDP (12:30 GMT), the U.S. PMI reports (13:45 GMT) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (14:00 GMT) are the only second-tier data scheduled for release today.

If GDP figures meet the expectations, the impact on the dollar could be limited.

Given the hawkish outlook for the U.S. dollar in the near-term, we are generally looking for further gains in the USD.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Dollar due for a correction?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Euro traders needed to be persistent and enter our long-entry several times, in order to gain the final profit. Before Draghi’s testimony in Brussels yesterday, euro bears tried to put pressure on the currency pair but finally failed when Draghi sounded slightly more optimistic. While he repeated the view that the European Central Bank is willing to bolster its bond-buying program if more stimulus is needed, he said that it is too early to judge whether expanding purchases would be appropriate. The ECB president said that more time is needed to determine whether risks to the economic outlook warrant a step-up in the ECB’s stimulus.

The euro reacted positively on his comments and tested the 1.12-level. Whether we will see more upward momentum, remains to be seen. With a break above 1.1220 we see chances that the euro could climb to 1.13.

The British Pound knows currently only one direction: Downwards. The support at 1.5220 proved to be stable for the time being. Bear in mind, that below 1.5220 there is no support until 1.5165. Above 1.5265 we may see a correction until 1.53 and 1.5340.

Today, the most important piece of economic data is coming from the USA with Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Furthermore, New Home Sales at 14:00 GMT and the speech of Fed-chair Janet Yellen at 21:00 GMT could have an impact on the U.S. dollar.

Interesting data from the eurozone and the U.K.:

8:00 EUR German IFO Index

8:30 UK Loans for House purchase

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Draghi delivered – All eyes on U.S. Payrolls now

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Dear Traders,

As expected, ECB president Mario Draghi talked down the euro by emphasizing that asset purchases can be adjusted in terms of size and duration if needed. He signaled that European Central Bank officials might expand stimulus if economy weakens further and inflation does not return to the ECB’s goal of 2 percent. The central bank cut its outlook for inflation and growth for each year through 2017. Draghi indicated that inflation rates may drop below zero before accelerating in 2016 and 2017. Until then, “there aren’t special limits to the possibilities that the ECB has in gearing up monetary policy,” he said.

In other words, traders got what they were looking for: A dovish Draghi, who sends the euro on a downhill ride.

Today, the market’s attention is focused on the August Non-Farm Payrolls report. Market participants are looking for a confirmation whether the U.S. economy is strong enough for a September liftoff amid recent turmoil in global markets. The odds for a Federal Reserve rate-hike at the September meeting are currently at 30 percent.

A weaker U.S. job report, however, may disappoint dollar bulls and lead to a short squeeze in the euro and GBP.

Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

We wish you successful trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Will today’s economic data push the euro towards $1.15?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

the U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British Pound, as a result of a “patient” Federal Reserve. The Fed has made it clear that there is no rush to raise rates in the next couple of months and also the Eurozone’s concerns about a Greek default are off the table, at least for the short term.

Yesterday afternoon, ECB President Mario Draghi expressed optimism when he said that stimulus starts to a have positive impact on growth. His comments suggest that the ECB may no longer be looking to increase stimulus in the near term.

On the bottom line, there are chances that the euro is prime for a test of 1.15.

While the euro continued to trade sideways within narrow ranges, the British Pound broke above 1.55. We expect further strength up to 1.5585. With a significant break above 1.56 sterling could make its way towards 1.5750.

Today, there is a bunch of important economic data scheduled for release. A decline in U.S. Consumer Prices and Durable Goods Orders could lead to further losses in the USD.

9:55 EUR German Unemployment Data

10:30 UK GDP

14:30 USA Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders

timezone: UTC+1

We wish you a good trading day!

Daily Forex Signals:

EUR/USD

Long @  1.1387                   SL           25           TP 20, 50

Short @ 1.1335                   SL           25           TP 30 -40

GBP/USD

Long @  1.5565                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Short @ 1.5490                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Daily Signal- performance in pips:

January 2015: EUR/USD: +240 pips, GBP/USD: +200 pips

December 2014: EUR/USD: +405 pips, GBP/USD: +230 pips

November 2014: EUR/USD: + 135 pips, GBP/USD: + 190 pips

October 2014: EUR/USD: + 255 pips, GBP/USD: +390 pips

September 2014: EUR/USD: + 336 pips, GBP/USD: + 424 pips

 

Signal success rate: EUR/USD: 69 %, GBP/USD: 65 %

February 2015

  • EUR/USD: +320  pips
  • GBP/USD: +115  pips

 

Trading Management via email support (Trailing Stops, Risk-/Money Management per trade and Strategy) is only offered to our signal subscribers. Our daily signals will be sent from Mon-Fri at 8:15 (UTC +1) to all subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Please be advised that we are not registered as a forex broker-dealer or an investment adviser. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice.

Our daily signals are neither an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell any of the currency pairs EUR/USD or GBP/USD. The signals are purely hypothetical and have only been prepared for informational and educational purpose and are not intended to be used as a complete source for any trading decision.

Trading may involve significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, performance strategies, prices, charts or other information are not necessarily predictive of any particular result and do not constitute advice. Past performance is no indication of future results.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimarfx.com