Posts

Quiet Trading Over US Thanksgiving Holiday?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The market’s sentiment was recently strongly influenced by political events and while political risks in the Eurozone continue to build up, the euro went into a tailspin. With the Italian constitutional referendum coming in on December 4, the situation for the euro may deteriorate as political risks are rising across Europe.

Trump’s win seems to have reinvigorated populist sentiment across the continent and if the UK can Brexit, the US can elect Trump, it is also possible that France and Italy could pull out of the EU. In this uncertain political environment, the euro remains vulnerable to losses. However, bearing in mind that the euro is oversold in short-term time frames, we expect some corrections in the EUR/USD.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market-moving data. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday usually leads to low liquidity in the market, which is why we do not expect significant market movements this week. The only interesting piece of U.S. data will be Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are expected to confirm the hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve. Everything else than a Fed rate hike next month would be a big surprise.

From the Eurozone, we have the PMI Report (Wednesday) and the German IFO Report (Thursday) due for release this week. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg today at 16:00 UTC.

Technically we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.07 and 1.0530 in the near-term while a break above 1.0720 may invigorate some bullish momentum towards 1.0770 and 1.08 whereas a break below 1.0520 would increase the pressure on the currency pair.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling dropped towards 1.23 and sterling bears are eager to see whether the cable will break below that crucial support. After a break below 1.23 we see a next lower target at 1.2150. A break above 1.2550 however, would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

chart_gbp_usd_daily_snapshot21-11-16

From the U.K. , the only interesting piece of economic data will be the Autumn Budget Statement (Wednesday) and Friday’s GDP Report.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Will U.K. GDP Numbers Drive The Pound To 1.21?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against the euro and British pound Wednesday. After peaking at a daily high of 1.0946 the euro, however, shied away from its resistance at 1.0950 and dropped back below 1.09. If the EUR/USD remains unable to take the hurdle at 1.0950 we expect further losses towards 1.08. In case of a rise above 1.0965 it may head for a test of 1.10. The greenback will be back in focus within the next 48 hours with Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC and Gross Domestic Product data due tomorrow. GDP data and the nonfarm payrolls report next week will offer further clues on the health of the U.S. economy.

The pound sterling still remained within its current trading range between 1.2250 and 1.2150. Above 1.2250 it may head for a test of 1.2320 but be careful, the risks are currently rather still geared to the downside and it only takes one negative impulse to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum in the GBP/USD. This impulse might come from important U.K. data such as today’s Gross Domestic Product figures, due at 8:30 UTC. If GDP numbers come in below expectations we could see sterling tumbling towards 1.2150 and further 1.21. Below .2130 we are looking for a steeper fall towards 1.20.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot27-10-16

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Back In Focus: Will U.S. Data Help Or Hurt?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While both of our major currency pairs fluctuated more or less sideways yesterday, the U.S. dollar was gaining momentum as upbeat economic data boosted optimism on the world’s largest economy. A gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nine years, coming in as a positive surprise for the market.

The euro tested the 1.12-support but, for the time being, the currency was able to remain above that important price level. Once the 1.1190-level is significantly breached, we may see accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.1130. However, given the recent sideways trend in the EUR/USD we anticipate the price action to be confined to a range between 1.1285 and 1.1120.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling rebounded against the greenback Tuesday and rose to a high of 1.3026. While we expect any further gains in this pair to be limited until 1.3070, downward movements may also be limited towards the lower bound of the pounds recent trading range at 1.2920. Once the 1.29-mark is breached to the downside, we could see further losses towards 1.2820.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot28-9-16

Today, we will watch U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, which could have a major impact on the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 14:00 UTC. Market participants scrutinize her remarks, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy but Yellen is not expected to reveal anything new after last week’s news conference.

ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 14:30 UTC at a meeting of the German Parliament’s EU Committee, but his speech is not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Rally Pauses, GBP In Overbought Territory, What’s Next?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The British pound extended its gains versus the U.S. dollar Wednesday. The GBP/USD remained stable around the 1.47-level and we are now looking for an upside break above 1.4730 in order to buy the pound towards 1.4750 and 1.4770. Caution is advised here, however: The GBP/USD is going to trade within overbought territory now and traders should expect some setbacks towards 1.4650 and 1.4610.

U.K. GDP figures are scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC but no changes are expected.

The dollar rally paused yesterday and as a result, the EUR/USD was not moving much. We generally expect the dollar rally to continue and any upside movements in this currency pair could therefore be limited until 1.1230 and 1.1280. Short-traders should rather wait for a renewed break below 1.1145 in order to sell the euro towards lower targets at 1.1120 and 1.1070.

The most important piece of U.S. data will be Durable Goods Orders, due at 12:30 UTC. If data disappoints, the dollar could lose further ground versus its major peers. Last but not least, U.S. Pending Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC. Figures of both reports are expected to be weak, which could weigh on the USD in the short-term.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Despite Low Volatility Bulls Still Gain The Upper Hand

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Despite worse-than-expected German business-confidence data the euro has held up well against the U.S. dollar Monday. Although prices fluctuated within a confined band of only 40 pips, the euro showed resilience against the greenback ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. With the euro remaining firmly above 1.1240, we expect another test of the 1.13-barrier, which may result in an upswing towards 1.1335 and 1.1355. However, while we do not expect a shift in sentiment a test of these lower resistances might be likely before the Fed statement.

The British pound tested the 1.45-mark but was unable to sustainably maintain the high price level. Whether we will see an extended upside move remains to be seen and should also hinge on the performance of the U.S. dollar. Above 1.4520 the pound could extend its gains towards 1.4560 and 1.4590. However, below 1.4480 it could fall back towards 1.4450 and 1.4410.

Traders should keep an eye on important economic data from the U.S. such as Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence due at 14:00 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Market May Underestimate The Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Despite the relatively low volatility in the currency market the U.S. dollar appreciated against all other major currencies. Trading conditions in the EUR/USD were overall quiet and short-traders had to be satisfied with smaller profits. Given the low volatility environment before the Easter break we do not expect the euro to show larger movements today even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and forecasts point to a decline in the headline figure, which may trigger short-term pullbacks in the greenback.

Unlike the euro the GBP/USD showed more volatile swings which have unfortunately resulted in two false breakouts before sterling was able to break below 1.4150. According to the saying “all good things come in threes” a third sell order would have finally hit all profit targets but as we always abide by our trading rules we missed out on that profitable downward move.

Having digested the recent terror attacks in Brussels the interest of investors is once again increasingly directed towards the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Comments from Fed speakers seem to be suggesting a more hawkish outlook for interest rates than the market is currently pricing in. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in an interview yesterday that policy makers should consider an interest rate increase at their next meeting in April. He sees the case for a move in April if another strong jobs report confirms that the labor market is improving, underlining the unchanged economic outlook and prospects for higher inflation. Bullard stressed that the committee might “raise rates more rapidly later on” if unemployment exceeds targets. Fed officials will now “look at April and see what the data looks like” when the next meet on April 26-27.

The focus will therefore shift to March Nonfarm payrolls data due for release next Friday April 1. As a rate hike next month has not been priced in, the dollar could rally strongly if the jobs report is strong.

U.K. Retail Sales (9:30 GMT) and U.S. Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) are due for release today and could trigger the last volatile swings this week.

GBP/USD: Technically we see current resistances at 1.4155 and 1.4190, whereas lower support levels could be at 1.4035 and 1.40.

EUR/USD: Amidst low volatility conditions we see current resistances at 1.1205 and 1.1235. However, lower supports are seen at 1.1135 and 1.1110.

Please note that we will not provide any signal alerts on Good Friday and Easter Monday. We will be back on Tuesday, March 29.

We wish you a very Happy Easter!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Bearish Momentum Faded – Time For Corrections?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the British pound continued its slide against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, the euro quickly recovered its losses after the U.S. services PMI showed contraction, raising concerns about the resilience of the U.S. economy. The euro initially fell to a low of 1.0957 but was later able to stabilize above the 1.10-mark. We consider the 1.1050-area as a current resistance for the EUR/USD, whereas downside movements could be extended toward 1.0930.

EUR/USD

The euro is still trading within a short-term downward channel. With a sustained break above 1.1070/80 we might see the pair rallying toward 1.1140. However, bearish movements could be limited until the descending trend line, which is currently at around 1.0930.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.2.16

From the eurozone we have Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT but no changes are expected.

The pound has gained some ground against the greenback and was able to remain above 1.39. Upside movements could be capped at 1.40 and 1.4050 whereas a break below 1.39 could drive the cable towards lower levels at 1.3850.

U.K. Gross Domestic Product figures are scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT, but as long as numbers are consistent with the expectations the impact on the GBP should be limited.

The most important piece from the U.S. will be Durable Goods Orders, due for release at 13:30 GMT. Data is expected to show an improvement, which could add strength to the dollar in the short-term.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fed May Shift Towards Slower Pace Of Interest-Rate Hikes

/in /by

Dear Traders,

In the end the market reaction to the FOMC statement was muted and has left much do be desired for currency traders. While the statement was a communications challenge for the Federal Reserve it came in as balanced as possible. Particularly noteworthy is the shift into a wait-and-see mode, which signals a less-hawkish forward guidance. While an interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in March is less likely Fed policy makers have left the door open for a March. Officials said that rate increases will depend on how the U.S. economy performs and said that they were “closely monitoring global and financial developments”.

In a nutshell, the Fed may be inclined to move forward at a slower pace of interest-rate hikes but the main focus remains on labor market and inflation data.

The EUR/USD did not show much movement yesterday, trading firmly around the 1.09-mark. For the time being, we expect swings to be muted unless the euro breaks above 1.0960 or vice versa, breaks below 1.08 and 1.0770. Upwards movements could be capped at 1.0925 and 1.0955 while downward swings may be limited until 1.0870 and 1.0820 in the short-term.

The German Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 13:00 GMT, a report which could affect the price action in the EUR/USD.

The British pound continued to trade lower against the greenback. We generally favor a bearish stance in GBP/USD and our focus is on the 1.42-barrier. A renewed test of that support level may reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.4170, 1.4150 and 1.4120. Current resistance levels are seen at 1.4285, 1.4308 and 1.4340.

U.K. GDP numbers are due for release at 9:30 GMT and if GDP is lower than expected, sterling could easily slide below 1.42.

Important U.S. data are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT with U.S. Durable Goods Orders, followed by Pending Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading

/in /by

Dear Traders,

These are the very last days of the year and many institutional investors have already closed their books. Despite some important economic reports scheduled for release within the next 3 days, this shortened trading week is expected to be very quiet.

The most important reports coming from the U.S. will be Q3 Gross Domestic Product figures, Existing Home Sales due for release on Tuesday and Personal Income scheduled for release alongside Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday. Most of these reports are expected to show softer numbers, which may lead to a minor weakness in the U.S. dollar’s uptrend. However, going into 2016, monetary policy remains the dominant theme. With the Federal Reserve remaining on track for tighter monetary policy while other central banks are tending towards an accommodative policy stance, the dollar should receive attraction throughout 2016.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. GDP numbers, due for release on Wednesday. If data will be in line with expectations, the impact on the currency pair will be limited.

Let’s have a look at the technical side:

EUR/USD

As previously noted, the 1.08-level remains important to pay close attention to. Prices formatted a head-shoulders pattern, predicting upcoming bearish momentum once the 1.08-mark is significantly breached to the downside. Lower targets could be at 1.0708 and 1.0640. We see an important support area at 1.0550. Below 1.0520, the currency pair could free-fall towards 1.0465 and 1.04. However, current resistances could be at 1.0930 and 1.10. With sustained prices above 1.10 we consider the head-shoulders pattern as void.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot21.12.15

GBP/USD

Sterling is currently trading around the support line of its downward channel. A break below 1.4850 could reinvigorate fresh bearish potential, whereas a break above 1.4965 may drive the pair towards 1.50 and 1.5050.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot21.12.15

We wish traders profitable trades just before the Christmas holidays and recommend not to invest too much during these days and take profits at smaller targets.

Please note that we will take a Christmas break from December 23 until January 1. During this period we will not provide our signal service. We will be back on January 4.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Appeared Unaffected By Geopolitical Tensions

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro remained resilient amidst heightened tensions between Turkey and Russia. The European currency was capped at 1.0670/75, resulting in a barrier for any bullish engagements. While other currencies such as the JPY benefitted from safe haven flows after geopolitical tensions overshadowed financial markets, the U.S. dollar received less attraction as a safe haven. Political analysts consider a major escalation unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey as a NATO member.

The British pound traded lower on dovish comments from Bank of England officials. BoE Governor Mark Carney said in testimony to lawmakers that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane sounded even more dovish saying risks to the inflation outlook were to the downside. So all in all, given the bleak outlook, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses in the near-term. The currency pair marked a recent support at around 1.5050. Next target is 1.50.

Yesterday’s U.S. data came in mixed and failed to trigger a big reaction in the USD. The focus will now shift to Personal Consumption Expenditure and Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. U.S. New Home Sales are due for release along with Michigan Confidence at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD

The euro is trending downwards. A current resistance can be found at 1.0690/1.07. Any bullish breakouts above 1.07 are likely to be limited until 1.0760-75. A lower support could currently be at 1.0575, from where some pullback may occur.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.11.15

 

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co