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ECB Decision: Dovish Surprise?

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The U.S. dollar was on the front foot, having scaled an 11-week top against a basket of peers yesterday. The EUR/USD fell towards 1.0850 while the GBP/USD dropped below 1.30.

The greenback has not only drawn support from better-than-expected U.S. economy data which caused traders to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the looming U.S. election.

Today we have the European Central Bank decision in focus where policy makers are expected to deliver another rate cut. The big question is however, whether the ECB could hint at cutting rates faster-than-expected through next year. In case of a dovish ECB surprise today, the downside momentum in the EUR/USD will accelerate. While a 50bp rate cut remains an outside bet, ECB president Christine Lagarde could signal, that more stimulus might be needed to help the region’s slowing economy. This would trigger more downside potential.

EUR/USD: Technically, a dovish surprise would see a dip towards the lower support area at 1.08-1.0780.

The ECB decision is scheduled for 12:15 GMT, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

Let’s be surprised.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Meeting In Focus This Week

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The focus this week shifts again to the European Central Bank and another expected rate cut. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp at Thursday’s meeting while another cut is further expected in December. Since this move is fully priced in, traders do not expect fireworks on Thursday. The spotlight will turn to the ECB press conference following the monetary policy decision.

Delivering further easing, the euro is likely to extend its latest slide. Following the robust US jobs report for September, the EUR/USD fell below 1.1000, completing a double top formation. A dovish ECB decision may allow the slide to continue towards the summer-low at 1.0880. Furthermore, the latest rebound in oil prices due to the Middle East tensions poses upside risks to the outlook.

In the unlikely event that ECB policymakers agree to wait until December to cut rates, the EUR/USD could experience a short-squeeze and thus, a strong rebound as investors get caught off guard.

 

Upcoming U.S. elections (November 5)

The dollar has historically flexed its muscles in the run-up to U.S. elections, driven by rising safe-haven demand amid uncertainty about the election outcome—a pattern that could repeat itself in the coming weeks.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Expect No Fireworks At The ECB Decision

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A weakening U.S. dollar has helped both euro and pound sterling to move higher.

Also, BoE rate cut expectations have been pushed back to September as UK inflation remains sticky at 3.5 percent. The GBP/USD rose to a high of 1.3045 and as long as the pair can hold above the crucial 1.30-threshold, the next higher target at 1.3140 could be within reach.

Today, the European Central Bank will decide on its monetary policy but no rate cuts are expected from the ECB this month. Traders thus expect the euro to remain supported against the greenback and brace for higher targets at 1.0960 and 1.0980.

However, traders shouldn’t expect any fireworks today after the ECB has only delivered its first rate cut last month and with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying there will no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Of course, we will watch out for clues about a next move but we don’t expect too much today.

 

During summer doldrums we may face quieter trading conditions. Therefore, we will not invest much, trade with smaller positions and don’t trade every day.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 18/7/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0965

Short @ 1.0885

 

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Traders Brace For Volatility Ahead Of Inflation Numbers

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After last week’s low volatile trading period and subdued performance this week promises to offer more momentum in terms of high importance risk events such as the U.S. CPI report (Wednesday) and the European Central Bank decision (Thursday). Last week, the only market-moving catalyst were Friday’s NFP data and the hotter-than-expected jobs data for March sent the U.S. dollar initially higher but gains were quickly erased and thus, the greenback ended last week moderately lower.

If the March U.S. inflation report beats projections with the consequence that the inflation outlook evolves unfavorably, the Federal Reserve may have no other choice but to justify the robustness of the labor market for being patient before turning to a looser monetary policy. This possible more hawkish stance could support the U.S. dollar in short-term time frames. However, a lower-than-anticipated inflation print would lead to a softer dollar.

On Thursday when the ECB is due to decide on monetary policy, it is almost certain that there will be no action and no change in interest rates. Market participants have a June rate cut already priced in.

EUR/USD: For accelerated momentum, watch out for price breaks either above 1.0890 or below 1.0730.

GBP/USD: The sideways trend is still intact. We will wait for a sustained break above 1.28 or below 1.25.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Decision: Euro’s Outlook Remains Neutral

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony has caused some volatility through the market and the U.S. dollar weakened on the back of falling U.S. Treasury rates. The reason for the downward tilt in the greenback was merely that there was nothing new to report, even though Powell’s remarks leaned towards the hawkish side.

Tomorrow’s NFP report could however surprise and if U.S. labor market data come in stronger-than-expected, it could trigger a shift in market pricing and thus, an upward move in the U.S. dollar.

Today, the European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. Investors will however closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences following the decision. Lagarde is expected to embrace a neutral stance, even though disappointing growth data in the EU may argue for a more dovish stance. Any signals about potential earlier rate cuts would weigh on the euro, whereas a delay of any potential easing measures could spark a hawkish repricing and thus, strengthen the euro.

The ECB’s decision is due at 13:15 UTC, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

EUR/USD – Still Sideways

Despite its recent upward tick, the currency pair still finds itself below 1.10 (blue EMA) and therefore still sideways. In order to speak of an upside breakout of the recent sideways range we would need to see a rise above 1.1050. As long as the pair remains between 1.07 and 1.10, the outlook is neutral.

GBP/USD – Struggling With Resistances

The cable is struggling to overcome a resistance at around 1.2750. We recommend traders to wait for a sustained upside break above 1.28 (red ellipse) to engage in an upside swing. On the downside, the 1.2550-area (orange EMA) could act as a support.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Decision Takes Center Stage

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All eyes will turn to the European Central Bank decision today at 13:15 GMT where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates with inflation still above target. While inflation in the euro area has maintained a downward trajectory during the last year, ECB policymakers are wary of upside risks to inflation. The biggest threat might be the latest crisis in the Middle East with a temporary supply shock posing a risk to European businesses.

Traders will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press briefing at 13:45 GMT for an updated view on the economy and inflation outlook.

The risk for the euro is to the downside. For the common currency to recover, Lagarde would need to sound surprisingly hawkish, dashing hopes for an ECB rate cut anywhere near as much as what markets have priced in. Markets expect the ECB to cut rates in June. If the communication among policymakers is, however, not clear, the euro could end up drifting sideways.

We will focus on a break below 1.0820 and further 1.08 in order to sell the euro towards 1.0750 and 1.07. Above 1.0935, the focus shifts back towards the 1.10-threshold.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 25/1/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0910

Short @ 1.0870

 

Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Meeting And U.S. PCE Data Will Take Center Stage

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Welcome to a new trading week.

From a fundamental perspective, trading might be in quiet waters at the beginning of this week but towards the end of the week we have two high-importance data releases and events.

The European Central Bank decision will take center stage on Thursday. Most action will come from the commentary by President Christine Lagarde. Markets currently expect the ECB to cut interest rates in April, but Lagarde warned that’s too early, pointing to a summer rate cut instead. While traders hope for a timetable of when to expect the first cut, this ECB meeting will likely be too soon to hope for a strong guidance. If Lagarde is however successful in dampening rate cut expectations, the euro could briefly spark higher.

On Friday, the core U.S. PCE index will be important in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Looking at the technical picture, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain stuck in broad ranges. As long as currencies are struggling for momentum, traders are advised to focus on range trading and breakout levels.

EUR/USD – Watch out for breakouts above 1.10 or below 1.08.

GBP/USD – Sideways range is intact. Sustained breakouts above 1.28 or below 1.25 will be of interest.

DAX – We will focus on a bullish break above 16820 in order to try another push for 17000. Remaining above 16300 will favor bullish action.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Decision: No Rate Hike, No Surprises

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The recent rally in both euro and British pound has proved to be short-lived while the euro has tested the area around 1.07 before retreating whereas the pound did not even manage to climb above 1.23 before falling back below 1.21. Given geopolitical tensions and thus an increased demand for safe haven currencies, the U.S. dollar remains strong so far and many traders use dips as USD buying opportunities.

In the GBP/USD the psychological 1.20-level comes back into focus now and in case this support level is broken, we may see a free-fall towards 1.18.

Today, all eyes turn to European Central Bank policy statement due at 12:15 UTC and the first look at the U.S. Q3 GDP, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The ECB will keep rates on hold, so no big surprises are expected here but if U.S. GDP reveals a further economic expansion, the euro is vulnerable to further losses.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 26/10/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0570

Short @ 1.0525

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Decision: 50/50 Chance Of A Rate Hike

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Yesterday’s mixed U.S. inflation figures did not serve us well in terms of profitable trades as the dollar choppily whipsawed without a clear direction. This has led to a false breakout in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. While the core inflation gauge was in line with estimates, the 12-month reading came in slightly higher than forecast. Traders are mostly anticipating no monetary action from the Federal Reserve next week with a view to a possible hike in November.

Today, the European Central Bank will decide whether to hike rates again amid worsening economic conditions in the Euro Area. Sources have suggested the ECB policymakers are about to upgrade their inflation outlook for 2024 to above 3 percent. This would mean a hawkish repricing of rate hike expectations. In short, it is now a 50/50 chance on whether the ECB raises rates today or not.

From a purely technical view, we now see short-term momentum in favor of the dollar, but if the ECB hikes today, the euro will rally.

Let’s see.

The ECB decision is due at 12:15 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

In case the euro rallies, the next target is at 1.0835, while slipping below 1.0685, the next lower target is seen at 1.0630.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

After Fed Focus Turns To ECB

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The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected but did not strike a hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar weakened amid the lack of commitment to further tightening.

The euro flirted with the 1.11 handle but trading was limited to a tight price range without major breakouts. The focus now turns to the European Central Bank’s decision today at 13:15 UTC.

The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bp but traders speculate on a shift in a dovish direction in the face of the deteriorating health of the EU-economy. If traders begin to price out the probability of more tightening in September, the euro could experience a sharp sell-off.

However, from a technical view we see chances for further leg-up towards 1.12. On the downside, if the euro falls back below 1.1020, the next support lies at 1.0970.

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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