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Secure Your Profit Now And Fasten Your Seat-belt For Next Week

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Dear traders,

The European Central Bank stood pat for now and finally did not surprise the market at yesterday’s policy decision. Policy makers, however, paved the way for a fresh easing package in December. The ECB held its pandemic bond-buying program at 1.35 trillion euros, reiterating that it will run until at least June 2021 and won’t be stopped until the “crisis phase” of the pandemic is past.

The euro reacted in line with the market’s expectations and slid slightly lower to a low of 1.1650. We were able to book a good profit yesterday by trading our short entry.

Fasten your seat-belts for next week’s U.S. election while uncertainty remains elevated. Volatility is expected to pick up next week and traders around the globe prepare for large market movements.

We will be back on Monday and until then we wish you a wonderful and relaxing weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

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Profitable Trading Week: Secure Your Profits And Lean Back

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Dear Traders,

Things turned out differently than many market participants had hoped. Almost everyone was expecting a very dovish tone from European Central Bank President Draghi but what we got, was a neutral Draghi who talked up the EU economy, saying officials will reassess stimulus in autumn. His remarks that the economy is finally enjoying a robust recovery outweighed concerns about the rise in the common currency. The market fully ignored Draghi’s assertion of the need for continued accommodation and pushed the euro to its strongest level in 23 months.

Investors will have to get used to the prospects of less ECB stimulus even though no decision has been made on timing or form of any tapering yet. Draghi only signaled the ECB would discuss its bond purchase program in the autumn.

The euro rallied to a fresh high of 1.1658 and many analysts already expect the euro rising toward higher targets at 1.17 and even 1.20. Time will tell.

The cable tumbled back below the 1.30 level as initial Brexit talks did not produce a breakthrough on any of the key issues between the UK and EU. Our short entry at 1.3015 has proved highly profitable and gave us a nice profit while using it twice.

For our part, since we have gained a good profit this week we will not reinvest our weekly profits and will thus do a trading break today. Have a good weekend!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

ECB Decision: Stimulus Change Would Be Premature

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Dear Traders,

It’s ECB decision day and the euro trends slightly lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the event risk. Meanwhile, the dollar received some support by an unexpectedly robust ADP employment report which nearly doubled the 185K forecast, lifting estimates for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. A Fed rate increase is therefore priced in as a near-certainty. However as certain as next week’s FOMC rate decision seems, the tightening cycle in subsequent meetings has not accelerated. Hence, the greenback seems to be unimpressed by the hawkish outlook.

Euro traders will pay close attention to comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. The bar is high and investors are looking for clues as to whether the conditions are right for a stimulus change. However the central bank is not expected to signal any change in policy today as policy makers will keep QE probably going until the end of the year. Even with euro-zone inflation at 2 percent for the first time in four years, Draghi is expected to maintain a dovish bias for the time being. The ECB must very cautiously reduce the level of current stimulus and it will therefore seek to avoid unnecessary turmoil. Nevertheless, inflation forecasts are expected to be revised higher for 2017 and 2018, which is why some market indicators point to the possibility of a rate hike in 2018.

The ECB’s decision will be announced at 12:45 UTC, followed by the ECB press conference 45 minutes later.

As usual, traders should prepare for volatile swings around the time of the press conference. Technically, the euro’s downtrend remains intact with the focus being on a next lower target at 1.0515/10. The 1.05-support level could lend a strong support to the euro which is why traders should also consider possible pullbacks in short-term time frames. A current resistance is seen at 1.0550, a level where sellers might jump back in. If the euro breaks however above 1.0575 we may see further gains towards 1.0640 and possibly even 1.0670. A break below 1.0490 could increase bearish momentum towards 1.0390.

The pound sterling extended its losses against the greenback and dropped to a low of 1.2139. We still anticipate some corrections in short-term time frames, sending the pound higher towards 1.23 and possibly even 1.24. On the bottom side there is a crucial support area ranging from 1.21 to 1.20. The pound may have difficulty to break that support zone ahead of the trigger of Article 50. No date has yet been fixed for the potential Brexit trigger, which is supposed to take place before the end of March.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Market Listens To Draghi: Tapering Or Expanding Stimulus Plan?

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Dear Traders,

Top event risk for the upcoming session is the European Central Bank meeting and ECB President Draghi‘s comments on tapering. While recent ECB meetings have rendered little market reaction, there has been speculation recently that the central bank will begin tapering its bond purchase program at one of its next meetings. While Draghi was optimistic about the outlook for the Eurozone economy, most economists predict the ECB won’t start tapering before the second half of 2017. Quantitative easing is currently scheduled to end in March and with consumer prices still hovering close to zero, policymakers should at least be comfortable with the current level of stimulus or even extend the program before gradually phasing it out once inflation approaches the ECB’s goal of 2 percent.

The ECB will announce its policy decision at 11:45 UTC but no changes are expected. The main focus will be on the press conference 45 minutes later and Draghi’s comments. If he pushes back aggressively against recent talk of tapering, the euro could be vulnerable to further losses. Any signal that the ECB plans to reduce bond purchases will provide a strong boost to the euro. If the central bank however refrains from providing any signals and defers any changes until December, today’s announcement could turn out to be a non-event for euro traders.

To cut it short, let us have a look at the technical chart and prepare for both possible scenarios.

EUR/USD

The euro recently weakened against the U.S. dollar but found some halt around the 1.0950-level, the descending trend line of the euro’s recent downward channel. If the pair breaks below 1.0940 we see a higher likelihood of further losses towards 1.09 and 1.0830. On the upside, the euro would need to break above 1.1060 in order to spark some bullish momentum towards 1.1170.

chart_eur_usd_daily_snapshot20-10-16

Apart from the ECB meeting we have U.K. Retail Sales at 8:30 UTC, the Philly Fed index at 12:30 UTC as well as U.S. Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC scheduled for release but all these reports could take a backseat to the ECB.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Amazing Trading Day: Bad For The ECB But Good For Traders

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Dear Traders,

What an amazing trading day! While the euro’s rise can be characterized as a bitter pill for the European Central Bank as the market’s reaction was certainly not the sort of movement the ECB may have hoped for, it was a very profitable day for traders. Before getting into the reasons for the euro rally let us look back on a very successful trading day. Short-trader’s efforts paid off after the ECB surprised the market with a drop in the benchmark to zero and we got what we have been looking for: +100 pips. Shortly after reaching our profit target the bearish movement was already exhausted and the euro started its relief rally. As if the profit would have not already been enough, just 90 minutes later our long-entry was triggered and we could watch the euro hitting our higher profit target where we have gained another 100 pips profit. The volatile swings in the EUR/USD allowed even more profit but at some point traders should not be profit-greedy and save the winnings.

The ECB delivered a full stimulus package which can be described as even more aggressive step than everyone has expected. That package included cuts in the deposit and benchmark rates, a pledge to increase the monthly QE purchases to 80 billion euros and four more multi-year lending operations (TLTROs). On top of that, the central bank lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2016 and 2017.

So what was finally the reason for the euro’s later uptrend? ECB President Mario Draghi has made a little faux pas when he told reporters after the meeting that “from today’s perspective, we don’t anticipate it will be necessary to reduce rates further.” In other words there is a limit to monetary easing and the central bank has finished cutting rates further. Draghi’s comments thus considerably outweighed the impact of increased stimulus.

EUR/USD

The euro experienced an upside breakout above 1.1070. Given the high volatility and the shift towards a bullish bias the euro could possibly extend its gains towards 1.1245 and 1.13. While we see a current resistance at around 1.13, the next major resistance zone is only at 1.14-1.15. If the pair breaks above 1.1315 a next target is seen at 1.1370 before heeding towards 1.14. However, the bullish move is not a done deal and traders should also bear in mind that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its hawkish policy stance – a fact that could strengthen the U.S. dollar in the medium-term. The former resistance at 1.1070 could now act as a support.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot11.3.16

The ECB announcement also triggered volatility in other currencies such as the British pound. The pound participated in the euro’s uptrend and moved finally higher against the greenback. If the pair breaks significantly above 1.4315 we could see sterling rallying towards 1.44. Remaining below 1.43 lower targets could be at 1.4180.

We wish you a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

 

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

EUR/USD To Remain Under Pressure- Focus On 1.08

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Dear Traders,

Those who traded the British pound Monday had to have patience as the cable provided only later some gains towards the 1.3950-barrier. After a false bearish break-out below 1.3840, GBP recovered its losses and is currently facing a next resistance at 1.3950. Once it breaks above 1.3965, we might see a renewed test of 1.40/1.4020.

The most important U.K. data will be Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and if data surprises to the downside, we expect sterling to fall back below 1.39. A lower target could be at 1.3820.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus at the ECB’s next meeting on March 10. Euro-area inflation turned negative in February putting pressure on the central bank to consider further easing. Within the next few days we expect the euro to trend lower against the greenback. For the time being, we focus on the 1.08-mark, which could act as a current support for the EUR/USD. Bearish momentum could accelerate with a break below 1.0770.

Traders should keep an eye on important economic data such as the German Unemployment report, due at 8:55 GMT and from the U.S. the ISM Manufacturing index, scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Roller Coaster Ride In Both EUR/USD And GBP/USD

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Dear Traders,

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced a roller coaster ride yesterday and while short-traders initially achieved good profits, some of these gains were lost owing to the strong rebound. In the end, both major currency pairs ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar.

The euro slid to a low of 1.0778 on dovish comments from ECB president Mario Draghi. While interest rates were kept unchanged, he readied the market for more stimulus at the next ECB meeting in March and traders got what they have been looking for: A strong hint that the ECB is willing to increase stimulus. Draghi said officials will review their programs in March and there are “no limits” on how far the central bank is willing to deploy additional measures within mandate. He signaled concerns about low commodity prices and their effects on inflation and said that policy makers “have to be vigilant about that”. Further clues on the inflation outlook will be published in the Quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, scheduled for release today at 9:00 GMT.

Draghi is scheduled to speak today at 7:45 GMT in Davos.

While a dovish ECB was enough to sent the euro in the short-term lower, it is still not enough to change the overall sentiment immediately. But at least yesterday’s statement will put pressure on the EUR/USD and traders should generally favor the downtrend. Below the important support at 1.08 the euro marked a second support at 1.0775, which needs to be broken in order to revive further bearish momentum towards 1.0730 and 1.0665.

The British pound followed the roller coaster ride and rose from its fresh 1.4079-low to 1.4249. Current resistances could be intact at 1.4250 and 1.4285/1.43, while recent support-areas are seen at 1.4155, 1.4130 and 1.4080/65.

Important U.K. economic data is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT with the U.K.Retail Sales report. Economists are looking for a weaker report and if they are right, sterling could continue its downtrend.

From the euro zone we have the German Manufacturing and Services PMI, due at 8:30 GMT, which could have a short-lived impact on the euro.

Furthermore, U.S. Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 14:45 GMT and Existing Home Sales due at 15:00 could only have a small impact on the dollar.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Whipsaw Performance In Both Currency Pairs

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Dear Traders,

While we initially anticipated further trendsetting movements in the GBP/USD on Thursday, traders have been disappointed by the cable’s zigzag moves ranging between 1.4445 and 1.4360. In the face of GBP’s recent depreciation, the currency might have taken a little breather yesterday, which has led to false breakouts and limited movements, making it an overall non-profitable trading day. Bank of England officials kept its monetary policy unchanged and said the outlook for growth and inflation has weakened further. Thus, investors continue to hold a very bearish bias over the medium-term.

The euro, however, started the day with some profitable bullish moves towards 1.0945. That short-term rise can be attributed to speculation that further European Central Bank stimulus may be limited. On the other hand, some ECB policy makers expressed a preference for an even larger rate cut, according to an account of the Dec. 3 policy meeting, published on Thursday. The ECB next meets on January 21 and investors will be looking for new insights into the ECB’s guidance.

The U.S. dollar slightly weakened on cautious comments from Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who sounded more cautious by saying the latest decline in oil prices may delay the return of inflation to the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

All in all, it was none of our favorite trading days as the market failed to provide much consistency in the currencies performances.

Today, traders will have another opportunity to watch out for some strong movements in the U.S. dollar. U.S. Retail Sales are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT and this report could trigger a strong reaction in the greenback.  Retail Sales are expected to show a decline in December and any surprises could affect the dollar’s performance. Last but not least, Michigan Confidence is due at 15:00 GMT.

Let’s see if we can pocket some profit on the last trading day of this week.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co