Euro – Page 2 – MaiMarFX

Last Volatile Week Of The Year?

December 11, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

This week will be the last trading week of the year with a heavy-loaded economic calendar which is likely to bring elevated market volatility while our trading instruments could experience large swings. All the action could already start tomorrow with U.S. inflation data due, followed by significant monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Looking for interesting trading opportunities, traders should keenly watch tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report to assess the validity of prevailing interest rate expectations for 2024. Inflation is projected to continue to fall but progress towards the Fed’s target is likely to be limited and this situation could prevent FOMC policymakers from adopting a more dovish stance at their rate decision on Wednesday.

All three central banks are expected to hold their policy settings steady, so the focus will be on the forward guidance and projections. As for any interest rate projections going into 2024, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have room to be somewhat more hawkish than his counterparts at the ECB and BoE, given the resilience of the American economy. This fact could support the USD against other peers. The market, however, has completely priced out any chance of additional tightening by the Fed. The central bank will release the updated dot plot projections on Wednesday while market participants are betting that the Fed will cut rates five times in 2024, with a 25bp rate cut fully priced in for May. If the Fed predicts fewer cuts, the dollar could extend its recovery on the back of the hawkish signals.

As for the ECB decision on Thursday, it is expected that policy makers will keep the deposit rate at 4.0 percent for the second meeting in a row. Given the weakening economic backdrop, the market is speculating that the ECB will be the first major central bank to cut rates, possibly in April. In other words, there could be further losses for the euro.

Also, the British pound is unlikely to gain much against the greenback unless the U.S. dollar sells off. Even though, the BoE is likely to dampen speculation about an early rate cut, gains in the pound might be very limited.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Inflationsdaten im Fokus: Werden Euro, Pfund und DAX ihre Gewinne ausbauen?

November 27, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Herzlich willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche nach dem, in den USA feiertagsbedingten Wochenende.

Alle Handelsinstrumente haben die angepeilten Widerstandszonen erreicht, aber das wirft Fragezeichen auf, ob die Erholungen bei Euro, Pfund und DAX über kritische Widerstände hinausgehen können.

Am Donnerstag werden die Inflationsdaten für die Eurozone veröffentlicht, die im November leicht von 2,9 Prozent auf 2,8 Prozent sinken dürften. Eine nachlassende Inflation könnte den Euro unter Druck setzen.

Die PCE-Kerninflationsrate, die ebenfalls am Donnerstag veröffentlicht werden soll, dürfte sich ebenfalls verlangsamt haben, wobei Schätzungen auf einen Rückgang von 3,7 Prozent auf 3,5 Prozent im Oktober hindeuten.

Die EUR/USD-Paarung verzeichnete eine positive Woche und baute auf ihrer jüngsten Erholung auf. Solange das Paar über dem 200-EMA bei etwa 1,0750 bleibt, können die Bullen auf einen Test von 1,10 und 1,1090 hoffen.

Die GBP/USD-Paarung testete den Bereich um 1,26, in dem sie zu Beginn dieser Woche oszillierte. Wir sehen nun eine kurzfristige Unterstützung bei 1,2530, gefolgt von der unteren 200-EMA-Unterstützung bei derzeit 1,2415. Ein Ausbruch über 1,2660 könnte die Tür für einen Anstieg in Richtung 1,27 und 1,2750 öffnen.

Der DAX stieg auf einen Höchststand von 16047 Punkten, während sich Händler fragen, ob noch mehr Aufwärtsdynamik vorhanden sein könnte. Wir stellen uns auf einige Korrekturen von den hohen Kursen ein und rechnen mit einer nächsten Unterstützung bei 15850. Oberhalb von 16070 werden wir unseren Fokus auf den nächsten Widerstand bei 16240 richten.

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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U.S. Dollar Weakness

November 6, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The British pound and euro reversed sharply higher last Friday after U.S. jobs data saw only 150k created in October, missing the market’s expectations of 180k. Furthermore, U.S. Treasury yield sell-off accelerated after Friday’s NFP report, which in turn weakened the U.S. dollar. There is a growing feeling that interest rates in the U.S. have peaked and that a potential recession in the next months could make rate cuts necessary.

GBP/USD

Technically, we got the price breakout we have been looking for. Sterling surged until almost 1.24 on Friday. The EMA200 oscillates at 1.2410 and if sterling bulls will want to turn the tide from bearish to bullish, they will need to stabilize sterling above 1.24. Watch out for a rise above 1.2415 now. A fresh support could now lie at around 1.2150.

EUR/USD

The euro hit 1.0746 after the 1.05-support has proved to hold. If the bullish bias continues, we will keep tabs on a break above 1.0760 in order to pencil in a higher target at around 1.0940.

DAX

The index was on the rise again and stabilized above the 15000-mark. We now see a next higher target at 15460 from where we may see stronger pullbacks. On the downside, the 15000-threshold, however, remains a crucial barrier.

This trading week will be a quieter week for traders in terms of market-moving event risks.

We will not invest too much at the start of this week.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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ECB Decision: No Rate Hike, No Surprises

October 26, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The recent rally in both euro and British pound has proved to be short-lived while the euro has tested the area around 1.07 before retreating whereas the pound did not even manage to climb above 1.23 before falling back below 1.21. Given geopolitical tensions and thus an increased demand for safe haven currencies, the U.S. dollar remains strong so far and many traders use dips as USD buying opportunities.

In the GBP/USD the psychological 1.20-level comes back into focus now and in case this support level is broken, we may see a free-fall towards 1.18.

Today, all eyes turn to European Central Bank policy statement due at 12:15 UTC and the first look at the U.S. Q3 GDP, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The ECB will keep rates on hold, so no big surprises are expected here but if U.S. GDP reveals a further economic expansion, the euro is vulnerable to further losses.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 26/10/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0570

Short @ 1.0525

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

Euro: Längste Verlustserie seit 1997

September 18, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Der Euro bestätigte den 9. wöchentlichen Verlust in Folge, die längste Verlustserie seit 1997.

Die Gemeinschaftswährung fiel wie ein Stein in Richtung 1,0630, nachdem die Europäische Zentralbank am vergangenen Donnerstag die Zinssätze zwar abermals erhöht hatte, es jedoch Anzeichen dafür gab, dass die Zinssätze ihren Höhepunkt erreicht hatten. Das Rezessionsrisiko und die sich verschlechternden Stimmungsindikatoren in Deutschland sprechen gegen weitere Erhöhungen.

Ein Blick auf den Wochenchart zeigt, dass der Euro trotz seines steilen Rückgangs immer noch über dem entscheidenden Unterstützungsbereich um 1,05 liegt. Angesichts der jüngsten bärischen Stärke könnten wir uns vorstellen, dass das Paar die 1,06er-Marke testet, bevor ein Pullback in Richtung 1,08 ansteht. Allerdings wird der US-Dollar in dieser Woche eine wichtige Rolle spielen, so dass Händler wahrscheinlich die Entscheidung der US-Notenbank abwarten werden, bevor sie sich entscheiden, in welche Richtung sie gehen.

EUR/USD

Auch in dieser Woche stehen wieder zahlreiche Ereignisse an, darunter mehrere Zentralbankentscheidungen. Wir werden uns auf die Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank am Mittwoch konzentrieren, und obwohl allgemein erwartet wird, dass die Fed die Zinssätze in diesem Monat unverändert lässt, gehen Händler von einer weiteren Anhebung bis zum Ende des Jahres aus.

Von der Bank von England wird am Donnerstag eine Zinserhöhung um 25 Basispunkte erwartet. Im Falle einer dovishen Zinserhöhung oder genauer gesagt, wenn die BoE andeutet, dass die Zinssätze sich ihrem Höhepunkt nähern, wird das Pfund Sterling fallen.

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Euro: The Longest Losing Streak Since 1997

September 18, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The euro confirmed a 9^th consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 1997.

The common currency dropped like a stone towards 1.0630 after the European Central Bank raised interest rates last Thursday but there were signs that rates had peaked. Recession risk and worsening sentiment indicators in Germany fuel arguments against further hikes.

Looking at the weekly chart we see, that despite the euro’s steep fall, it remains still above the crucial support area around 1.05. Given the recent bearish strength we could imagine that the pair tests the 1.06-level before a pullback towards 1.08 is in the cards. However, the U.S. dollar will play a major role this week, so traders will likely wait for the Fed decision before deciding which way to go.

EUR/USD

This week is again loaded with event risk, including multiple central bank decisions. We will focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday and while the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this month, traders access the prospects of a further hike by the end of this year.

The Bank of England is expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike on Thursday. In case of a dovish hike or more precisely, if the BoE give a hint that rates are near their peak, the pound sterling will fall.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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ECB Decision: 50/50 Chance Of A Rate Hike

September 14, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Yesterday’s mixed U.S. inflation figures did not serve us well in terms of profitable trades as the dollar choppily whipsawed without a clear direction. This has led to a false breakout in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. While the core inflation gauge was in line with estimates, the 12-month reading came in slightly higher than forecast. Traders are mostly anticipating no monetary action from the Federal Reserve next week with a view to a possible hike in November.

Today, the European Central Bank will decide whether to hike rates again amid worsening economic conditions in the Euro Area. Sources have suggested the ECB policymakers are about to upgrade their inflation outlook for 2024 to above 3 percent. This would mean a hawkish repricing of rate hike expectations. In short, it is now a 50/50 chance on whether the ECB raises rates today or not.

From a purely technical view, we now see short-term momentum in favor of the dollar, but if the ECB hikes today, the euro will rally.

Let’s see.

The ECB decision is due at 12:15 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

In case the euro rallies, the next target is at 1.0835, while slipping below 1.0685, the next lower target is seen at 1.0630.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

After Fed Focus Turns To ECB

July 27, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected but did not strike a hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar weakened amid the lack of commitment to further tightening.

The euro flirted with the 1.11 handle but trading was limited to a tight price range without major breakouts. The focus now turns to the European Central Bank’s decision today at 13:15 UTC.

The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bp but traders speculate on a shift in a dovish direction in the face of the deteriorating health of the EU-economy. If traders begin to price out the probability of more tightening in September, the euro could experience a sharp sell-off.

However, from a technical view we see chances for further leg-up towards 1.12. On the downside, if the euro falls back below 1.1020, the next support lies at 1.0970.

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Geringe Volatilität voraus?

July 3, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Die vergangene Woche endete mit einer Steigerung der Risikostimmung am Markt, wobei der Euro und das britische Pfund gegenüber dem US-Dollar zulegten und der DAX wieder in Richtung 16200 sprang. Der PCE-Index für die USA fiel am Freitag niedriger aus als erwartet, was die jüngsten Gewinne des Dollars zunichtemachte.
Die US-Märkte werden morgen wegen des Unabhängigkeitstages geschlossen sein, was zu einem ruhigen Handelsverlauf zu Wochenbeginn führen könnte.

Die einzig interessante Meldung auf dem Wirtschaftskalender diese Woche werden die US-Arbeitsmarktdaten am Freitag sein.

Wir geben zu bedenken, dass die Sommerflaute jetzt im Juli zu ruhigeren Handelsbedingungen und geringeren Gewinnchancen führen könnte. Händler sollten daher nicht zu viel investieren, mit kleineren Positionen handeln oder einfach eine Sommerpause einlegen.

Handelssignale

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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U.S. Dollar Rebound

June 29, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar rebounded against the British pound and the euro following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed chairman said at a central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal, that more tightening is coming and that a broad majority of Fed officials support two additional rate hikes this year. Furthermore, he admitted that he doesn’t expect core inflation to get to 2.0 percent until 2025. This could mean no rate cuts next year. Tomorrow’s PCE deflator could be of particular interest in terms of more clarity on the inflation outlook. A surprise to the upside could bolster the greenback.

Many traders, however, remain doubtful about a renewed round of tightening.

GBP/USD: The cable sold off towards the 1.26-support. If the pair now slips below 1.2580, we will turn our focus to a next lower target at around 1.2510. Bulls on the other side, will keep tabs on prices above 1.2770 in order to buy pounds toward 1.2850.

Looking at our signal performance in June we can say that it has been a highly profitable trading month with +188 pips in the GBP/USD, +47 pips in the EUR/USD and +247 points in the DAX. We will therefore not reinvest our monthly profits during the last two trading days of the month.

We hope that you were also able to profit in the markets in June and wish you many more profitable trades to come.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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