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Focus On U.K. Job Report, U.S. Retail Sales

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Dear Traders,

Despite the upswing in the euro and British pound, Monday proved to be a fairly quiet trading day with any larger market moves lacking. While the upside potential in the EUR/USD was limited to a high of 1.1996, none of our daily signal entries was triggered in the GBP/USD. With the crucial 1.20-barrier remaining a hart nut to crack for euro bulls, the focus shifts back to the euro’s down trend and the next support around 1.19. If the single currency drops below 1.1880 we may see a continuation of the euro’s down move.

Revisions to the Eurozone GDP Q1 figures are scheduled for release along with the ZEW Surveys today at 9:00 UTC but both reports might take a backseat to the final April CPI release on Wednesday.

The British pound refrained from a sustained climb above 1.36 and fell back towards 1.3550.

On the data front, we have the U.K. jobs figures scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and these numbers have the potential to spark volatility in the pound, provided that the report surprises. Sterling traders should thus keep an eye on the job numbers this morning. Technically speaking, the GBP/USD still finds itself within a trading range between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. Looking for sustained breakouts, we will keep tabs on prices either above 1.3650 or below 1.3440.

From the U.S. we have Advance Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could have a short-term impact on the price action in the dollar.

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Will U.K. CPI Data Prompt Sterling Bulls For A Run For 1.30?

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Dear Traders,

Euro bulls have regained control and pushed the EUR/USD up to a test of 1.10 this morning. Traders are now on the look-out for a sustained upside-break of that psychological level. If the euro breaks above 1.1023, the opening price following the first round of French elections, we see chances of a climb towards 1.1070. On the bottom side, we expect a current support to be around 1.09. The most important piece of Eurozone data this morning will be the Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. At the same time, the German ZEW Survey is due for release. Any upside surprises could translate into further euro strength.

The British pound found some halt near 1.2880 after an attempt to break the 1.2940-level has failed. All eyes will be on the Consumer Price report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and if inflation data is upbeat, the pound could trade higher targeting 1.2970 and 1.3020. Current support levels are however seen at 1.2860 and 1.28.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Yellen Testimony Takes Center Stage

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Dear Traders,

The currency market got off to a cautious start before the testimony from Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen. The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro and British pound Monday and while the euro took a dip below the 1.06-level, we still cannot speak of a significant downside breakout. The pound sterling ended the trading day in positive territory and it currently appears poised to break through the 1.2550-barrier. For sterling traders, it will be an interesting trading day with U.K. Consumer Prices being due for release at 9:30 UTC. Traders should prepare for volatile swings even ahead of the upcoming inflation figures. Above 1.2560 the pound may head for a test of 1.2575/95. While the risk for inflation is clearly on the upside there is also potential for disappointment last month.

The euro is hovering around the 1.06-mark and we still wait for a sustained break below the 1.0580-support. Once that level is breached we expect further losses towards 1.0550 and 1.0520. On the upside, the 1.0650-level may limit potential gains but today’s price action will hinge on Yellen’s testimony. Euro traders will also pay attention to the German ZEW Survey and Eurozone GDP figures, both reports scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC.

The Fed chair will start testimony in Congress in Washington at 15:00 UTC. While Yellen is not expected to give any clear hints as to the timing of the next rate hike, her comments on monetary policy could trigger larger market moves.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Uncertainties Before U.K. Vote Result In Massive Widening Of Volatility

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story was the sharp rise of the British pound early this morning, which once again demonstrates the enormous potential despite uncertainties surrounding the U.K. referendum. Only this morning we saw a higher likelihood for upcoming bullish momentum if the cable was able to break above 1.4480 but the pound came up first with its strong upward move before we published today’s analysis. The British pound has soared within seconds by 180 pips towards a high of 1.4661 but was not able to hold onto its huge gains. The currency pair remains vulnerable to high-volatile swings and traders should be prepared for huge breakouts at any time.

Yellen’s speech had only little impact on the market’s sentiment as she avoided addressing the timing of another interest-rate increase. While her comments were less hawkish this time, omitting a previous phrase that an increase would likely be “appropriate in the coming months”, the Fed is still on track to raise rates this year. Yellen described the latest labor-market report as “disappointing”, but also pointed to the increase in average hourly earnings, which is seen as one of the few encouraging elements of the report.

In a nutshell, a June move is off the table and the Federal Open Market committee is now expected to keep rates on hold when they meet next week. Also, the chances of a July hike have fallen substantially after the latest labor-market weakness and Yellen’s speech. The next major risk event will now be the U.K. referendum and investors are likely to remain risk-averse in the run-up to the important vote, a fact that could depress the market environment in the near-term.

The U.S. dollar was little changed yesterday and this could possibly last for some time as there will be no major economic reports this week, which could help determine the market’s direction. Traders should therefore not expect too much, take profits even at smaller targets and do not invest too much.

The only second-tier report from the Eurozone today will be revisions to the first-quarter GDP, due at 9:00 UTC. This report is not expected to have a major impact on the euro. The EUR/USD marked a recent trading range between 1.1392 and 1.1325. Based on that range we will focus on price swings above and below these bounds, while we expect the 1.1409-level to act as a short-term resistance. Above 1.1415 a next bullish target could be at 1.1445. However, a break below 1.1325 could drive the euro towards 1.1290 and 1.1260.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Is Bullish Bias Set To Persist?

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Dear Traders,

Both major currency pairs experienced a volatile start to the new week and there was something for everyone. While bears initially set the tone, providing short-traders a good profit bulls won out against the bears at the end of the day, sending the euro and British pound higher against the U.S. dollar.

Consequently, the current sentiment appears to be strongly bullish but what is next? Let’s have a look at the technical side.

GBP/USD

Sterling still trades within a tertiary downward channel. After the recent rise the situation appears somewhat overbought so traders should generally expect increased bearish momentum in the near-term. If the pair is able to break significantly above 1.43, we see next resistances at 1.4360 and 1.44. Even if concerns about a potential Brexit have eased somewhat, the latest U.K. economic reports were not really encouraging. We therefore favor a bearish stance and focus on next resistances from where GBP may bounce back.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.3.16

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to testify at Parliament’s Treasury Committee on the economic and financial benefits of EU membership today at 9:15 a.m. GMT. Carney is declined to reveal any details of the possible actions the BoE will be considering in the event of Brexit. A potential EU withdrawal fueled speculation the U.K. could fall into recession and the central bank would have to respond with a rate-cut. Traders should keep an eye on Carney’s testimony as any new insights or details could have a significant impact on the pound.

The Eurozone Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT but no changes are expected.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Can U.S. Retail Sales Boost Attractiveness Of The USD?

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Dear Traders,

After the first day of testimony from Janet Yellen the currency market returned to business as usual. Investors ignored the second day of her testimony and shifted their focus away from the dollar towards safe havens such as the yen. The euro continued to benefit from its role as a funding currency and trended upwards, extending its gains as far as 1.1376. The cable, however, traded lower and dropped towards its support at 1.4380. The GBP/USD defined a current trading range between 1.4590 and 1.4380 and therefore may need a catalyst in order to extend movements above or below that range. The U.S. Retail Sales report and U.S. Consumer Confidence, scheduled for release today, may trigger some movements in the greenback.

The euro traded resiliently above 1.13 on Thursday and euro-bulls must have strong nerves in order to pocket their later profits. Unfortunately we terminated our trading slightly too early and therefore missed out on the last profitable upward move in the EUR/USD.

The most important economic report today will be U.S. Retail Sales due for release at 13:30 GMT. Stronger spending is an indication of strength in the U.S. economy which is why the Fed is closely monitoring this report. Given the forecast of no outstanding rise, the risk is to the downside for the USD. In case the report surprises with a far higher increase than 0.1 percent, the greenback could rally.

Furthermore we have the GDP reports from the eurozone, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, which could have a short-term impact on the EUR/USD. Last but not least, Michigan Confidence, due for release at 15:00 GMT could affect the dollar.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Dollar Bulls Need More Signals To Reinvigorate The Long-Dollar Trade

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Dear Traders,

After investors have been scared out of their long-dollar positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. job report, they must now reconsider the timing of interest-rate hikes this year. The latest non-farm payrolls report raised doubts about recent speculations the Federal Reserve could be inclined to forgo future rate increases in 2016. While payrolls increased by only 151K last month, the jobless rate fell to 4.9 percent, which was the lowest level since February 2008. In addition, wage growth showed a higher reading, which was reason enough for dollar bulls to send the greenback higher. Nonetheless, it was not easy for traders to handle the sharp fluctuations when job numbers were due for release. Consequently, those who have made a trading break on Friday have made the best choice.

What is important for the this week?

Apart from Fed-Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and Eurozone GDP-reports and U.S. Retail Sales on Friday the economic calendar is light. Yellen appears before the House Financial Services Committee to testify on economy and monetary policy and market participants will look for an unambiguous confirmation of the future outlook, whether the Fed will grow less hawkish or maintain an optimistic stance, pointing to further tightening in 2016. The dollar’s performance could therefore hinge on Wednesday’s testimony.

The GBP/USD seesawed Friday but ended the week below 1.45. Our focus will be on the 1.4350-level, which may act as a support for the currency pair. A significant break below that level could send sterling back towards 1.4240 and 1.4150. However, remaining above 1.44, we might see the pound rallying towards 1.46 and 1.47, albeit we assume that the 1.47-mark could be a strong resistance. There are no major economic U.K. data reports until Wednesday when Industrial and Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release.

The EUR/USD is currently trending downwards. We expect the 1.1070-level to lend a short-term support for the pair. If this support proves to be correct, we may see a small rebound towards 1.1150 and 1.1180. This scenario would then format a head-shoulders pattern, which could be in play as soon as the euro breaks below 1.1070, reinforcing strong bearish momentum.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.2.16

We wish you a good start to the week and many profitable trades.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Next Targets To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

While the British Pound continued to weaken against the U.S. dollar, the euro tested the 1.08-barrier which lends a short-term support for the currency pair. The big question ahead the FOMC meeting next week is whether the euro will remain comfortable above this zone or will rapidly fall back towards 1.05. A Federal Reserve interest rate hike is priced into the market, which is why we expect downward pressure to be limited in the coming days. However, the odds are in favour of the USD and we will be looking for lower targets at 1.0750 in the EUR/USD and 1.5020/00 in the GBP/USD.

EUR/USD: Breaking below 1.0730 may prompt the EUR/USD for a test of 1.07/1.0690. Current resistances are seen at 1.0860 and 1.09. Euro bulls should be looking for a sustained break above 1.09 targeting higher levels at 1.0940.

GBP/USD: GBP is trending downwards but where could be a next stop? We consider the 1.50-mark as a crucial support for the pair. Once this level is breached to the downside, the next stop could be at 1.4950 and 1.4920. On the upper side, the 1.5080-level may act as a resistance for sterling. Above 1.51 a bullish target could be at 1.5150.

Important data for today which could impact on the currency pairs:

9:30 UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production

10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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German & Eurozone GDP reports

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Dear Traders,

Not much has changed on the technical outlook. The euro experienced a correction within its recent upward trend but recovered its losses towards the end of the day. As long as the currency remains comfortable above 1.11, the upward trend is intact. Prices below 1.1080 may indicate increasing signs of euro-weakness.

German and Eurozone Gross Domestic Product reports are scheduled for release today, which could have a significant impact on the euro. The euro could revive its recent strength if numbers beat expectations.

The pound Sterling traded – how could it be any different – sideways. None of our entries was triggered yesterday.

We might see increasing momentum with the release of U.K. and U.S. Consumer Prices and the Federal Reserve Minutes next week.

We gained a nice weekly profit, so today we will save our profits and do not invest too much.

Important reports to watch today (timezone GMT):

6:00 EUR German GDP

8:30 UK Construction Output

9:00 EUR Eurozone GDP

9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Prices

13:15 USA Industrial & Manufacturing Production

14:00 USA Michigan Confidence 

We wish you a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co