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U.S. Dollar To Rebound On Fed?

It’s Federal Reserve decision day today and for the fifth consecutive meeting the central bank is seen holding interest rates unchanged at its current 5.25 to 5.50 percent range. Nonetheless, today’s decision could be of interest for traders as the focus will be on the Fed’s forward guidance. If Fed policy makers signal a greater inclination to patience and show less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, the U.S. dollar could rise.

Furthermore, the Fed releases updated macro projections, including the dot-plot at 18:00 GMT, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conferences 30 minutes later.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 20/3/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0890

Short @ 1.0825

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2760

Short @ 1.2690

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 18030

Short @ 17960

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Fed’s Hawkish Pause

The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for a second time today but could leave open the possibility of another hike as soon as December. Market participants expect today’s decision to be kind of a ‘hawkish pause’ while expressing the potential need for another rate increase. A definitive end of the Fed’s hiking cycle will hinge on labor and inflation data over the next months.

As for the Israel-Hamas war, Powell has highlighted elevated geopolitical tensions which is why the FOMC may discuss whether to include this as a risk in its statement as well.

Traders expect that the market reaction to today’s decision could be muted, so we will not go for big profits today.

The Fed decision will be released at UTC, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later.

Our technical focus hasn’t’ changed since Monday:

EUR/USD: Below 1.0530, the euro could test the 1.05-support again on its hold but if 1.0440 breaks again, we could see a free-fall towards 1.02. On the upside, we expect the 1.07-region to serve as a resistance.

GBP/USD: We will now wait for price breaks either below 1.2070 or above 1.2260. A next lower target will be at 1.18 whereas on the upside the next target would be 1.24.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Fed Decision And Trading Signals

It’s Federal Reserve decision day. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp to a range of 5.25-5.50 percent. This move is fully priced in. The focus will be on the policy guidance for the next months. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicates more hawkish moves ahead, the U.S. dollar will rise. If he abandons his hawkish rhetoric instead, the dollar will weaken.

However, today’s decision could be less volatile for traders since no summary of economic projections will be provided this time.

The Fed decision is due at 18:00 UTC today, followed by the Fed’s press conference 30 minutes later.

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 26/7/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1125

Short @ 1.1035

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2915

Short @ 1.2865

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 16280

Short @ 16190

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Traders Brace For Higher Volatility This Week

After several days of muted trading conditions, volatility is likely to increase this week, with major central bank decision on tab.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25bp on Wednesday. Traders’ focus will be on the forward guidance. If the Fed signals a further hawkish bias, the U.S. dollar will receive a boost.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is also expected to deliver a quarter-point hike but unlike the U.S. dollar, the euro could be at risk of a sharp drop. Given the deterioration of growth in the eurozone, ECB policy makers may sound less committed about further tightening.

Last but not least, traders will assess the June PCE data on Friday. A higher reading would argue in favor of additional Fed tightening, and thus, benefit the greenback.

 

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Central Bank Decisions In Focus

Welcome to a new trading week which could have some larger market moves in store as the U.S. Federal Reserve and ECB are set to announce policies this week.

As for the Fed which meets on June 13-14, officials are expected to take a breather and skip a rate hike this month after more than a year of increases. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could signal that policy makers are prepared to keep hiking if needed. Some market participants expect the Fed decision this month to be a close call, especially if Tuesday’s U.S. inflation print should come in higher than expected.

On Thursday the European Central Bank is widely expected to raise rates by 25bps again.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the British pound showed decent gains against the U.S. dollar, closing the past week on a positive footing.

GBP/USD

We will keep tabs on a breakout price range between 1.2650 and 1.24. Breaking above 1.2670 will increase chances in favor of a bullish breakout towards 1.30. However, we bear in mind that the pair entered overbought territory, making corrections towards 1.2450 likely.

EUR/USD

The pair consolidated within its recent price range between 1.08 and 1.06. Until there is no breakout of this range, there is nothing new to report.

DAX

Breakout in the making?

The index’s price movement narrowed, increasing the chances for a profitable breakout. Above 16020, we favor a bullish bias with a higher target at 16200. Below 15900, however, we will pencil in a lower target at around 15700.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Fed Decision Day

It’s Federal Reserve decision day and the central bank is expected to deliver a 25bp interest rate hike and then signal a pause in its aggressive hiking path. Inflation is expected to cool more meaningful in the months ahead which could allow for the Fed to stop raising rates. However, there is room for a surprise and since the market prematurely speculates on potential rate cuts toward the end of the year, any signs for further tightening would come as a surprise and strengthen the U.S. dollar.

Thus, sustained strong inflation and jobs data could add pressure on the Fed to continue hiking, leaving the greenback’s counterparts exposed to further downside.

The most likely scenario however is that if the Fed officially hits the pause button, the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken, as traders attempt to front-run the next moves, which in this case would be rate cuts. With other key central banks, such as the ECB, still seen hiking borrowing costs a few more times this year, monetary policy divergence is expected to play against the greenback.

The Fed decision is due at 18:00 UTC, followed by the Fed press conference 30 minutes later.

Sideways direction

EUR/USD: The euro recently traded within a sideways range between 1.11 and 1.09. If we see an upper breakout above 1.11, the next target is 1.12. Falling below 1.09 could see further losses towards 1.0750.

GBP/USD: If the pound stabilizes above 1.25, we could see a run for 1.2650. A sustained break below 1.24, however, could lead to a test of the lower support area at 1.23.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Monthly results 2023:

April 2023 (5 days trading only): +38 pips

March 2023: +408 pips

February 2023: +475 pips

January 2023: +123 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Fed Decision: It’s All About The Outlook For Terminal Rates

November’s U.S. CPI report surprised lower and the market rallied, providing bulls very good profits yesterday. However, gains faded quickly with the DAX and British pound giving up virtually all gains towards the end of the trading day. The euro held above 1.06, for now.

Federal Reserve rate decision is due today at 19:00 UTC, followed by the Fed press conference 30 minutes later.

We will learn how much of the Fed pivot was already been priced in over the past months. Markets are forward-looking and focusing on the long-term and thus market participants are looking for hints about the outlook for terminal rates and what the central bank signals after its rate decision. The Fed press conference and Jerome Powell’s statement will therefore take center stage.

All eyes will be on the Fed’s dot plot forecasts and the path for interest rates. If policy makers send a dovish signal and suggest a pause in rate increases in March, sooner than expected, markets could further rally. However, we bear in mind that the market is forward-looking and has much of the move already priced in. Thus, if a dovish pivot comes sooner, the next tightening cycle could also come sooner. So, in the end, it’s all about premature speculation.

After days of ongoing upward momentum, the risk is tilted to the downside.

Our trading ideas for today 14/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0670

Short @ 1.0585

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2380

Short @ 1.2340

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14490

Short @ 14440

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Pivotal Week

Welcome to a new and pivotal trading week. After smaller market movements on the back of a low liquidity backdrop the past week, the fundamental docket will get far busier this week. We get the last run of major data before the Christmas holidays with several high-profile event risk coming up within the next days.

The Federal Reserve is getting close to pivoting to easier policy and is thus expected to announce a 50bp rate hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to follow suit on Thursday.

In terms of volatility, the Fed will carry the greatest weight this week and since much of the central bank’s less-hawkish stance is already priced in into the market’s recent risk appetite and subsequent upward momentum, the greatest risk of volatility would be a sharp move to the downside.

The U.S. dollar started this week with an uptick against other peers and traders now turn their eyes to Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation data ahead of the Fed meeting. For the dollar to rally we would need to see core CPI above 6.3 percent whereas a reading below 6 percent could ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Technical view

EUR/USD: Looking at larger time frames the euro has been in a downtrend since May 2021. The only driving force behind the euro’s recent ascendency has been a softer U.S. dollar which traded lower on signs of easing U.S. inflation. In other words, the fundamental picture and developments in the US the next days will dictate the euro’s price action.

From a purely technical view, the currency pair remains stretched to the upside with a need for correction. Below 1.0340, chances increase in favor of the bears with a lower target seen at 1.01. Bulls on the other side will have to overcome the resistance zone between 1.06 and 1.08 in order to change the sentiment in favor of further bullish action.

GBP/USD: Like in the euro, the U.S. data and Fed decision will dictate the cable’s direction in the next days. It seems as if bullish momentum is waning and if the pound breaks below 1.21, we may see a steeper correction towards 1.18. Above 1.2350, however, bulls may push for a test of 1.25.

Our trading ideas for today 12/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0540

Short @ 1.0490

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2265

Short @ 1.2190

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14330

Short @ 14270

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Euro And Pound Poised For Further Strength But be Careful

Friday saw the euro tread water with the price reluctant to push above the 1.2180-mark. Thus, the technical picture in the EUR/USD has not fundamentally changed and we still anticipate another leg up towards 1.2250-70. If the pair is however unable to steady above 1.22 traders will focus on lower targets at 1.20 and 1.1960.

The U.S. dollar accelerated against other peers Friday as investors mulled the prospects for stimulus amid the worsening pandemic. There are warnings of longer and stricter lockdowns in the wake of mutant Covid-19 strains which might hinder a near-term economic recovery. The U.K.’s health minister warned that coronavirus vaccines may be less effective against new variants of the disease.

As for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, market participants hope that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide reassurance that $120 billion of monthly bond purchases won’t be tapered any time soon. Generally speaking, economists do not expect quantitative easing to be scaled back until 2022 so traders should not expect any surprises at the Fed’s meeting.

GBP/USD

The British pound managed to climb back above 1.37 after Friday’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar. Looking at the technical picture all signs are pointing to a further uptrend with a higher target seen at around 1.38. Sterling bears, on the other side, may focus on a decline below 1.36 in order to anticipate increased bearish momentum.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Will The Fed Meet The Market’s Expectations?

Yesterday’s best performing currency was the British pound which rose in volatile trading from an intraday low at 1.3279 to a high of 1.3469. The reason for sterling’s climb was a tweet from BBC journalist Nicholas Watt who tweeted about a feeling among British lawmakers that a Brexit deal may be close. A deal is about 75 percent priced in in the pound’s recent rally. As for yesterday’s trades we were able to profit to either side and expect volatility to remain elevated within the next days.

GBP/USD

On the daily chart we see the primary uptrend still intact even though there have been high volatile price swings recently. We now focus on a trading range between 1.3550 on the upside and 1.31 on the downside. Any price breakouts above or below these levels could invigorate fresh momentum.

EUR/USD

The ‘sleepy’ euro provided zero chances for day traders recently, while it remains within the smallest trading range in over 12 months. We may see some more volatile movements today with the Fed decision and focus on important price levels such as 1.23 on the upside and 1.2050 on the downside- provided that price action gains momentum.

The FOMC meeting is this week’s top event risk and may give some life to the oversold U.S. Dollar, with recent comments from several members suggesting that the central bank will keep its monetary policy settings steady. Most economists expect no shift in the Fed’s monetary policy now but with the pandemic posing the risk of further lockdowns and Congress failing to agree on a relief aid, a minority is leaning toward a move this week. If the Fed is however not dovish enough to meet market expectations, we could see higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The Fed decision is scheduled for 19:00 UTC, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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