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Quiet Trading

Dear Traders,

U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations whereupon the dollar gave up some of its gains. However, the greenback had a rather mixed day while it ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound.

Generally speaking, it seems that many market participants refrain from taking any larger positions now amidst the liquidity drain during the summer months. Therefore, we recommend to trade at a low risk or stay at the sidelines as long as risk events are lacking.

The Fed will deliver its monetary policy report to Congress today at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you a wonderful weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Continues Slide After Trump State Of The Union Speech

Dear Traders,

Turn-around Tuesday lived up to its name and we got what we were looking for: A reversal of the dollar’s short-lived recovery and a very good daily and monthly profit. The U.S. dollar is being sucked into the maelstrom triggered by the ‘America First’ agenda of the Trump administration. As for the depreciation of the greenback and the long-term outlook, we can point out that the protectionism move will negatively influence the world’s largest economy.

The dollar extended its slide after U.S. President Trump’s State of the Union speech. As expected, Trump sought to strike a positive tone and described a “New American Moment” of wealth and opportunity. Trump called on Congress to pass a 1.5 trillion infrastructure-spending plan but this campaign promise was widely expected by the markets. Thus, the dollar’s reaction to his speech was muted.

EUR/USD

The euro recovered some of its losses after the 1.2330-support proved intact. Now that the single currency has stabilized above 1.24 we could see another test of 1.2450, a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. If the euro finds its way above 1.2460 we expect further gains towards 1.25 and possibly even 1.2650.

The British pound started a relief rally after the psychological support at 1.40 has been tested. If the pound climbs above 1.4210 we may see a rise towards 1.43 but this depends on the risk appetite and demand for dollars ahead of the FOMC decision.

The next upcoming risk event will be the FOMC rate decision at 19:00 UTC but no changes are expected. It will be Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting before her term ends in February.

Before coming to the FOMC decision, we will keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price report, due at 10:00 UTC, followed by the ADP report at 13:15 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

There Is No Reasonable Explanation For The Dollar’s reversal

Dear Traders,

It seemed as if dollar bulls just sought an excuse for taking profits on dollar positions after the U.S. dollar rose to new highs on evidence of firming inflation. Whereas for the U.S. all signs are pointing to higher inflation and thus, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, there was no reasonable explanation for the sharp reversal of the USD towards the end of the trading day. During the House Financial Services Committee hearing, conservatives Republicans pressed Fed Chair Janet Yellen to concede that economic growth is still disappointing and that the Fed has failed to fix underlying problems. For the most part, Yellen’s tone was positive, defending the Fed’s efforts that had contributed to strong job growth. The only negative point during the hearing was that Yellen acknowledged that economic growth has been “quite disappointing”. This seemed to be the reason for the weakening dollar in short-term time frames.

The EUR/USD traded higher, heading towards 1.0630 and it will now be interesting whether the 1.0660-resistance is going to hold. If the euro breaks through 1.0665/70 we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.0710 and possibly even 1.0750. A current support area is however seen at 1.0580-60. If the euro falls back below 1.0560 it could extend its losses towards 1.0510.

The pound sterling ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback. A break above 1.2520 could boost bullish momentum but we bear in mind that the barrier at 1.2550 is still unbroken. Crucial support levels are seen at 1.2350 and 1.2310 and as long as the pound remains firmly above these zones we will rather focus on higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and those of you who have already made a good profit this week, shall better not reinvest their profits.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

USD Receives Boost On Hawkish Yellen Comments

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar was bolstered by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on the first day of her testimony. While Yellen did not reveal much new information, she was surprisingly hawkish, saying that “waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets”. In other words, the pace of interest rate hikes could accelerate, still leaving the door open for a hike in March. Market participants will now shift their focus to the U.S. Consumer Price data with the intention to evaluate the need for faster rate normalization.

The greenback traded higher against the euro and British pound and while we generally expect further gains in the dollar, traders should also prepare for some pullbacks in short-term time frames.

The euro found some halt at 1.0560 and it may now tend to correct recent losses towards 1.0615 and possibly even 1.0630. Today’s price action will, however, again hinge on the demand for dollars. In case of better-than-expected CPI data the euro could extend its losses towards 1.0540 and 1.05.

The British pound dropped towards 1.2440 after the U.K. Consumer Price Index failed to meet market expectations. Signs of weaker price growth may encourage the Bank of England to maintain a neutral monetary policy. From a technical perspective, the cable is still confined within a sideways trading range between 1.2550/85 and 1.2440. A break below 1.2440 may prompt sterling bears to sell sterling towards 1.2350 and further 1.2270. On the topside, the pound will need to break through 1.2530 and 1.2560 in order to invigorate fresh bullish momentum.

We will keep an eye on the U.K. Labor Market report, due for release at 9:30 UTC, which could affect the price action in the GBP/USD, provided that there is any surprise.

Higher volatility is expected during the U.S. session with Consumer Prices and Advance Retail Sales scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC.

Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will U.K. CPI Data Push The Pound Above 1.27?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday. Ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement investors are concerned that US-policymakers were to flag the risk of a strengthening dollar on the U.S. economy, suggesting that the dollar rally has gone too far. Most of the dollar gains have come about as a result of expectations that Trump will enact policies that increase spending as well as spur growth and inflation. It remains to be seen how the political program will look like during Trump’s term as president while the details of an eventual fiscal-spending program are still written in the stars.

The euro tested the 1.0650-level and our yesterday’s long-entry has proved successful. We will now wait for the euro to overcome the 1.0665-barrier in order to focus at higher targets at 1.0710 and 08. On the bottom side, the 1.0470-support remains intact. Euro traders should keep an eye on the ZEW Survey, due for release at 10:00 UTC. The euro might tend to strengthen ahead of that report.

Particular attention will be paid to the British pound and the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. CPI data is expected to show an uptick in November which is why the pound may appreciate against the greenback ahead of that report. We will focus on an upside break above 1.27, which could drive the pound towards higher targets at 1.2770 and perhaps even 1.2870. A current support is however seen at 1.2530.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Dollar Weakened Ahead Of CPI Data

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s consumer price reports. While Monday’s trading in the EUR/USD was quiet and none of our entries was triggered, sterling traders had to struggle with false breakouts within a tight trading range. Thus we had to record some losses before our last buy attempt proved to be successful. The pound strengthened before the U.K. releases inflation figures today at 8:30 UTC and sterling traders should pay close attention to the CPI report as it could have a major impact on the price action in the GBP/USD.

Technically, the pound broke above a descending trend line, pointing to further upside momentum in the short-term. If the pair is unable to break above 1.2275, the recent upward movement could be on shaky ground.

Bullish scenario: Above 1.2275 we expect further gains towards the next resistance at 1.2320/50. Above 1.2375 the pound may even head towards 1.2430.

Bearish scenario: Below 1.2130 we expect further pound weakness.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot18-10-16

Apart from the U.K. CPI report we have U.S. Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Economists predict the report to show inflation is accelerating and if they are right the dollar will strengthen in the wake of Federal Reserve rate hike speculations before year-end.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Slumped as Fed September Rate Hike Seems Unlikely

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound rebounded strongly against the U.S. dollar after bearish momentum failed to drive both currency pairs significantly lower. Ultimately, short-traders’ efforts did not pay off and we suffered losses with yesterday’s short-entries.

The Federal Reserve is more upbeat about the economic outlook, saying that near-term risks to the U.S. economy have diminished and that job gains were strong, the FOMC statement showed. However, there was no indication of the specific timing of the next potential rate hike and with Esther George being the lone hawk, it has not been enough for the greenback to maintain it strength. Consequently, traders gave up on dollar long positions as they see only little chance of a rate hike in September. The market is now pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate increase in December.

The euro rose towards 1.1080 on the back of broad based dollar weakness. We now see a next resistance around the 1.11-level which could limit the gains in the EUR/USD. If the euro breaks above 1.1130 it could head for a renewed test of 1.1160. However, if prices fall back below 1.10 we will favor a bearish stance.

The British pound marked a strong support at 1.3060 from where it reversed. Given the recent sideways trend we will now focus on an upper bound at 1.33, whereas the 1.3060-level is seen as the lower bound of the cable’s trading range. Above 1.3350 the sentiment may shift in favor of the bulls but we expect short-term gains to be limited until 1.3410/50.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The German Unemployment report (due at 7:55 UTC) may have a short-term impact on the euro but the price action will depend on risk appetite.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Upward Movement To Be On Shaky Foundations?

Dear Traders,

While we actually got the breakouts what we have been looking for, the market’s fluctuations proved to be limited to either side Monday. Sterling traders were able to pocket some profits with both long and short-entries whereas euro traders still struggle with the euro’s poor performance. The EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.1075 and 1.1015 and neither our sell attempt nor a later buy order provided a sustained profit. Consequently, euro traders will need some more patience and wait until market conditions improve.

The pound sterling climbed towards 1.31 as the leadership certainty in the U.K. provided some relief for the currency. Theresa May will be appointed as Britain’s next prime minister and even though May will have to resist pressure to rush into the Brexit negotiations, Britain’s second female prime minister is not seen in a hurry to trigger Article 50, the formal start of an EU exit.

In the meantime, it is going to be a big week for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who faces the U.K. parliament’s Treasury Select Committee today at 10:00 UTC, ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision. Economists expect the BoE to cut rates by 25 basis points, which would be the first rate cut since 2009. With this in mind sterling is expected to remain under pressure ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision.

Furthermore, two Fed officials are scheduled to speak today around 14:00 UTC, which could influence the dollar’s performance as long as they maintain a hawkish stance.

The euro rose towards 1.11 but the technical picture has not changed significantly. Long-term swing entries are available for subscribers.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Brexit Is The Big Elephant In The Room Urging The Fed To Adopt Slower Rate Hike Path

Dear Traders,

The market reaction to the FOMC statement was more muted than expected. While the cable maintained a daily price level around the 1.42-mark, the euro surged to a high of 1.1298 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. While the decision to leave rates steady in June was widely expected, Fed chair Yellen declined to provide any guidance on the timing of future rate increases during her press conference. However, the Fed has taken a more cautious stance with regard to next week’s referendum in the U.K., a decision that “could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets (…) and in turn for the U.S. economic outlook”, Yellen said. At present, the Brexit vote is the greatest uncertainty in the market.

In the light of a slower approach to interest-rate increases, the U.S. dollar weakened but losses were limited as the dollar is profiting from its function as a safe haven amidst all uncertainties. Traders should bear in mind that as long as the market is biased by the upcoming Brexit vote we might not see any sustained movements in the currencies. Large investors are likely to wait until after the big event in order to take new positions.

Today, the focus shifts to the U.S. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. In case of any unexpected surprises the dollar will respond accordingly. Apart from that most important piece of economic data, the Bank of England is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 11:00 UTC but no changes are expected, making it a non-event for traders. Before the BoE interest rate decision, U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 8:30 UTC which could have a minor impact on the pound.

From the Eurozone we have Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but if the report is in line with the expectations, it will not have a significant impact on the euro.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Struggles With 1.14 While Sterling Went Into A Tailspin

Dear Traders,

The European Central Bank began buying corporate bonds on Wednesday and the euro climbed above the 1.14-mark. However, the slight appreciation of the euro can rather be attributed to the shift in expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. The U.S. dollar weakened as Investors see only a 58 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates by year-end. The greenback’s recent weakness contributed markedly to the increase in the euro but in general the dollar remains a buy on pullbacks as the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates in 2016.

The movements were, however, limited in the currency market. The euro rose merley 10 pips above the 1.14-barrier whereas it marked a current support at around 1.1350. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Brussels at 7:00 UTC, which could impact on the euro.

From the U.S. we have Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims due for release at 12:30 UTC, but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the USD.

The British pound rebounded from a high at 1.46 as Brexit risks continue to put pressure on the currency. If sterling breaks again significantly below 1.4495, we see a greater chance of a renewed bearish move towards 1.4440 and 1.4385. However, above 1.4540 gains could be limited until 1.4580.

The only second-tier economic data from U.K. will be Trade Balance figures due for release at 8:30 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co