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GBP/USD: Set For Another Bullish Breakout?

The U.S. dollar weakened as the risk-on rally continues. Federal Reserve officials indicated that they will continue to raise rates but are open to slowing their tempo. The market’s focus is however on the meaning ‘hawkish slowing’ which is why we saw rallies across the board. The Fed will publish the minutes of their November 1-2 meeting today at 7pm GMT.

Is the GBP/USD headed for a next bull run?

Based on bullish candle stick formation we may a next leg up towards 1.22. The ascending trendline has proved to act as a support and as long as prices remain above 1.18 but more importantly, above 1.17 we favor the upside trend. Next bullish targets are at 1.1950, 1.20 and 1.21.

Our trading ideas for today 23/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0340

Short @ 1.0280

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1915

Short @ 1.1865

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14480

Short @ 14430

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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GBP/USD: Gains Capped At 1.26 Amid Overbought Situation

While the FOMC minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed policy makers agreed to raise interest rates in half-point steps in June and July, the tone of the report can be described as less-hawkish-than-feared. The U.S. dollar weakened against other peers.

The GBP/USD is again testing the resistance area between 1.26-1.2650 this morning. A sustained break above that area could result in a run for 1.30 but caution is advised here: The pair is overbought and needs to correct to revive bullish momentum.

EUR/USD: We currently see chances in favor of the bears even if the pair holds above 1.0640-1.06. However, we anticipate a correction toward 1.0580, rather than a flight toward 1.08.

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Profitable Week So Far

Investors have moved to less-defensive positions amid signs of a Ukraine de-escalation. Russia’s apparent pullback led to some relief in the market and risk appetite drove the U.S. dollar lower and risk assets higher. We were able to book some good profits with our buy position in the EUR/USD, our sell position in the GBP/USD and last but not least our buy position in the DAX that surged by more than 3 percent from our entry level.

Today, the FOMC minutes at 19:00 UTC will be closely watched. If the minutes are perceived as hawkish, the dollar could soar against other counterparts.

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Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 3160

Short @ 3090

 

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Euro And Cable Draw Closer To Support Levels Amid Low Volatility

The FOMC minutes showed that conditions of substantial further progress have not been met for the Federal Reserve to start tapering. The minutes contained some degree of uncertainty among policy makers which is why the U.S. dollar initially slipped on the release. However, large price swings are lacking since market volatility remains subdued.

Generally speaking, the Fed tapering prospects will lead to a stronger greenback in the medium-term but now doesn’t appear to be the right time to expect too much from the hawks.

EUR/USD: If 1.1780 breaks, we will watch out for falling prices towards 1.1730/1.17. Resistances are seen at 1.1850, 1.19 and 1.20.

GBP/USD: We still see a crucial support at 1.37 from where we could see some rebound but if bears are strong enough to push the pair significantly below 1.3670, traders should expect steeper losses towards 1.35. Resistances are seen at 1.3850, 1.39 and 1.40.

DAX: We have already reached our weekly profit target while we were able to book good profits in three consecutive trading days. The index’s price range remains sideways between 15750 and 15450. Any break above or below this area should be considered as a potential chance for larger moves.

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Focus On Technical Picture Amid Inflation Concerns

Gains were capped at 1.4220 in the GBP/USD which was an anticipated resistance level. Traders wonder whether there could be a deeper correction towards 1.4150 now – provided that the 1.4220-1.4230-area remains a resistance.

The situation was similar in the EUR/USD with the pair extending its uptrend above 1.22 but being reluctant to show much follow-through, at least until now.

Volatility could pick up today with investors awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting. The FOMC minutes due at 18:00 UTC may offer more insight into policy maker’s thinking about inflation and may hint on a timeline for tapering stimulus.

Regardless of all inflation concerns, we will keep tabs on the technical picture in both major currency pairs.

GBP/USD

After 1.4220 has been hit we saw the cable correcting some of its gains and as long as the price remains below 1.42, we could see the formation of a bull flag with a potential low at around 1.4150. A bull flag is a continuation pattern within a strong uptrend and if new buyers enter the market above 1.42, we could see another leg up towards 1.4230 and possibly 1.43. On the bottom side, if the pair falls below 1.4140, we anticipate further losses towards 1.4070 and possibly even a dip towards 1.40.

EUR/USD

The euro faces the 1.2250-hurdle now and once this barrier is eliminated, we will focus on a higher target at 1.2320. On the downside, the focus is on the 1.21-support.

We wish you good trades!

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Prevailing Uptrend Set The Tone But Inflation Fears Could Be The Game Changer

Welcome to a new trading week.

The U.S. dollar ended last week lower against other peers after U.S. retail sales stalled in April following a sharp advance in the prior month. Regardless of the greenback’s most recent decline, inflation fears will be front and center in the market and investors will scrutinize the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting on Wednesday for any hints of a timeline for reducing stimulus. While market participants are bracing themselves for a sooner rather than later shift in the Fed’s monetary policy, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a Bloomberg interview on Friday that the Fed’s policy is in a good place right now. “This is not the time to be adjusting anything on policy. It really is a time for watchful waiting, seeing how the recovery evolves” Mester said.

Aside from the FOMC minutes, it could be an interesting week for the pound sterling as the U.K. is due to release data on employment, retail sales and inflation.

Notwithstanding the fundamental backdrop, we will focus on the technical picture in the currency pairs.

GBP/USD

The trend is our friend and based on the prevailing uptrend in this pair we will focus on a higher target at around 1.4220 with a potential extension of gains towards the February high at 1.4243. A current support is however intact at 1.40 and if the cable dips below that crucial barrier, a lower target could come in at 1.3950 – the lower boundary of the latest uptrend channel.

EUR/USD

While the overall uptrend is obvious, we will pay attention to short-term price barriers within the bullish trend. On the upside we see a next hurdle at 1.22 and if this level is significantly breached to the upside, we may see another leg up towards 1.23 and 1.2350. On the downside, if the euro breaks below 1.2080, we expect more losses towards 1.2040 and 1.20.

DAX

Volatility was notably higher in recent days with the index surging from a low near its current support at 14800 to a high of 15500 – the upper boundary of the index’s recent sideways range. Breaking above 15520, the DAX could resume its uptrend towards a higher target at 16000.

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U.S. Dollar Strength To Continue?

This content is for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX members only.
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Watch Out For Higher Volatility Today

Dear Traders,

As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.

BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.

The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.

From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.

Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Will The Pound Receive A Boost From U.K. GDP Data?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar appreciated against its major counterparts in the aftermath of the Fed’s minutes. The tone of the FOMC minutes was passively hawkish while the transcript showed increasing confidence that economic growth will pick up steam despite inflation concerns.  Market participants are now pricing in the possibility of a tighter Fed rate hike path with a current 90 percent chance of a next rate hike in March and a 60 percent chance of three rate hikes through the year. The possibility of even four rate hikes in 2018 is currently over 20 percent. After initial teething problems, the dollar was finally able to end the trading day in positive territory against the euro and pound.

The British pound was volatile as expected but again failed to overcome the 1.40-barrier. Technically speaking, however, we got the price breakouts we were looking for and given the fact that 1.40 remained unbroken we got a dip towards 1.39. A next lower target could now be at around 1.3850/30.

Today we have the U.K. GDP scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and this report could possibly provide a boost to the weakening pound.

EUR/USD: The euro traded with a downward tilt on the back of a strengthening dollar but from a technical perspective, we still see this pair confined to a sideways trading range between 1.2550 and 1.22. Only if the euro breaks significantly below 1.22 the short-term outlook will shift in favor of the bears.

The next top event risk is the minutes from the European Central Bank’s January meeting which are due at 12:30 UTC. However, unlike the January release, which covered the December meeting which had a new set of Staff Economic Projections revealed, the coming minutes will have much less hard information to discuss. Thus, it could be a non-event for euro traders.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co