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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

While Thursday proved to be a volatile trading day, the volatile but choppy swings in the market were not to our liking. Entries were triggered and stopped out due to heightened volatility but there was little follow-through on either side.

The U.S. dollar gained traction ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the statement did not alter rate hike expectations. While the Fed saw gradual rate hikes as needed given a very strong U.S. economy, some Fed members are concerned about intensified risks around trade policy.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. NFP report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

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USD Unfazed By FOMC Meeting

Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar following the FOMC meeting. As expected, there was no policy change, so the market is now pricing in a nearly 100 percent chance of a next rate hike in March. The greenback ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound.

As recommended for subscribers, we did not trade yesterday since we secured our monthly profits. Thus, we did not lose any pips of our monthly performance.

EUR/USD: The pair traded recently sideways between 1.2475 and 1.2385. For euro bulls we recommend waiting for a sustained break above 1.25 in order to participate in the euro’s uptrend. If the euro, however, falls back below 1.24 we may get a retest of 1.2350/30.

GBP/USD: The cable traded with a tailwind and climbed above 1.42. That break was however not sustained, at least until now. If the pound takes out the 1.4235-barrier we may see a run for 1.4285. Sterling bears might wait for a sustained break below 1.41.

Interesting economic reports today:

9:30 UK PMI Manufacturing

15:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

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Possible Pullbacks In The Greenback – Focus On U.S. Retail Sales

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar was supported by speculation about the trajectory of interest rates before the Fed announcement tomorrow. While a rate hike this month is very unlikely ,chances for an increase later this year have increased. The probability of a rate hike in June is now about 50 percent while analysts see a 63 percent chance of an increase by December.

The euro weakened against the greenback but was able to remain above the 1.1070-50 support area. We will focus on a break of 1.1070/50 in order to sell the pair EUR/USD towards lower levels at 1.10 and 1.0910. On the upside gains could be limited until 1.1160 and 1.1220. With only one day to go before the FOMC announcement the dollar could be vulnerable to pullbacks as U.S. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT are forecast to show a marked decline in February.  

The pound sterling returned to the slippery slope, falling back below 1.43. As stated in yesterday’s analysis we see a current support at 1.4250/40. Once that support level is significantly breached to the downside we will shift our focus towards lower targets at 1.4170 and 1.4120. Current resistances are seen at 1.4310 and 1.4360.

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable Are Stuck In Tight Ranges

Dear Traders,

As expected, the FOMC minutes failed to trigger any major market movements and both currency pairs traded boringly within tight trading ranges. Consequently, there was nothing to be gained for traders.

Many Federal Reserve officials saw increased downside risks to the outlook for the U.S. economy if the recent global market turmoil, including the slowdown in China was sustained, the minutes showed. While rate hike expectations for 2016 have been gradually priced out, there is still a small chance for the Fed to raise interest rates in the middle of the year. Policy makers emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial developments and so, if the U.S. economy continues to improve the Fed could follow its path of further tightening.

We will wait and see and focus on technical conditions. The EUR/USD formatted a current trading range between 1.12 and 1.11 and traders should rather wait for any sustained breakout above or below that range. If the euro breaks above 1.1215, there is a next hurdle at 1.1240/50, which needs to be broken before we can shift our focus to 1.13 again. On the downside, we expect the 1.1085-70 area to be crucial for further bearish momentum. With a break of 1.1070, we could see the euro falling towards 1.1050 and 1.0990.

The GBP/USD remained well above 1.4240 but was not able to exceed the 1.4340-level. Once the 1.4340-level will be breached to the upside, sterling could rally towards 1.4380 and 1.44. Above 1.4410 the next crucial level could be at 1.4450. However, below 1.4270 we will turn our focus towards the 1.42-mark.

Today we will keep an eye on the following important economic reports which may have an impact on the currencies:

12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Minutes

13:30 USA Philly Fed Index

16:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories

(Time zone GMT)

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Advanced Amid Optimistic Fed Comments

Dear Traders,

The U.S. Dollar traded higher against the euro and British pound amid optimistic comments from Federal Reserve policy makers. Fed officials view the U.S. economy as strong enough to withstand a rate hike in 2015. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart said yesterday he remains confident the central bank will tighten this year and he indicated that the September FOMC decision was a close call.

Investors were relieved and drove the greenback higher, even though yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report was below expectations.

GBP/USD

Sterling declined against the greenback but stopped its slide slightly above 1.5480. Today’s focus will be on U.K. Public Sector Finances, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. Borrowing is expected to show a rise in August, increasing the chances for an upward move towards 1.5570 and 1.5625.

The only piece of eurozone data will be Consumer Confidence, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT. Prior to that, U.S. House Price Index is due for release at 13:00 GMT, but the impact on the currencies could be limited.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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Fed delays Rate Hike – No appetite for U.S. dollars

Dear Traders,

The Federal Reserve delayed its rate hike and left interest rates unchanged. Reasons for the Fed’s decision were recent global economic and financial developments which may put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nevertheless, the committee’s outlook has not changed and they repeated to raise rates when they see further improvement in the labor market and stronger inflation.

The question of whether the Fed’s move was right or wrong continues to be controversial.

Those who have hoped for a rate hike were disappointed and sold U.S. dollar as an initial reaction to the decision. We went long and gained a nice profit of 100 pips in the EUR/USD and 91 pips in the GBP/USD. So all in all a profitable trading day even though we had to record some losing trades during the day, but with the right risk-management these losses have been less serious.

There are no important economic reports scheduled for release today. It could therefore be a quiet trading day.

We wish you a beautiful weekend!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co