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FOMC Decision: Will The Fed Send A Dovish Signal?

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Traders should be prepared for increased volatility with the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision of 2024 coming up. While no change in interest rates is expected, the Fed could adjust its monetary policy guidance which could trigger large swings. If the central bank embraces a more dovish posture, the U.S. dollar will fall. In the event of a hawkish signal and pushing back against expectations of deep and early rate cuts, the dollar should rise sharply.

The Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced at 19:00 GMT today, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

EUR/USD: Watch out for breaks either below 1.0790 (short) or above 1.0910 (long).

GBP/USD: Today, we will pay attention to a rise above 1.2760 which could attract buyers or a fall below 1.2640 that could increase bearish momentum towards 1.26 and further 1.2550.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for the FOMC decision 31/1/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0860

Short @ 1.0785

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2710

Short @ 1.2665

 

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

 

Markets Believe In Rate Cuts Even After FOMC Statement

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was unable to convince markets of no rate cuts this year. As expected, the central bank delivered a 25bp rate hike but what mattered was the outlook after a most probable rate hike pause in June. Powell said that the FOMC does not support rate cuts but the markets didn’t believe the Fed’s comments. Instead, markets have priced in at least 3 rate cuts by December, a completely different forecast.

What is quite worrying is that such a near-term pivot would likely be a reaction to an increasingly worsening economic outlook. The U.S. dollar continued to weaken against the euro and pound.

The further outlook for the dollar remains bearish since there was no hawkish surprise from the Fed which could have lifted the battered greenback.

EUR/USD: The euro flirted with the 1.11-resistance but an upper breakout is still outstanding. The next target is 1.12.

GBP/USD: The pound stabilized above 1.25 and is currently heading towards 1.26. We see a next hurdle around 1.2650 from where sterling may correct.

Today we will have the European Central Bank decision at 12:15 and 12:45 UTC. Markets expect a neutral/hawkish 25bp rate hike by the ECB with the promise of further rate increases in the months ahead provided that inflation remains high.

Thus, the euro’s outlook remains slightly bullish but if the EUR/USD is unable to overcome the 1.1110-barrier it may correct.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Will The U.S. Dollar Retreat On A 75bp Rate Hike?

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It’s the Federal Reserve’s decision day and traders brace for a 75bp rate increase. The market’s key question is whether the Fed is nearing a projected 3.4 percent rate peak around year-end before Fed policy makers can start easing again to tackle the risk of recession. We bear however in mind that the market is often ahead of itself which is why talking about easing monetary policy could be premature at this point.

Nonetheless, the growing risk of a recession may force Fed policy makers to deliver smaller rate increases towards the end of this year. A shift in the Fed’s forward guidance may produce headwinds for the U.S. dollar in the coming months. So, we may see the greenback struggling to hold onto its gains even when the Fed hikes as expected.

In other words, a 75bp rate hike may not be a bullish catalyst for the dollar if additional rate hikes this year are not signaled. And the chance of a 100bp rate hike is at only 13 percent.

Given the summer lull we do not expect market movements to be extraordinarily large.

 

Daily Forex And DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

While Thursday proved to be a volatile trading day, the volatile but choppy swings in the market were not to our liking. Entries were triggered and stopped out due to heightened volatility but there was little follow-through on either side.

The U.S. dollar gained traction ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes but the statement did not alter rate hike expectations. While the Fed saw gradual rate hikes as needed given a very strong U.S. economy, some Fed members are concerned about intensified risks around trade policy.

The focus now shifts to the U.S. NFP report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

For more information and analysis, sign up for our signal service.

 

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

USD Unfazed By FOMC Meeting

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Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar following the FOMC meeting. As expected, there was no policy change, so the market is now pricing in a nearly 100 percent chance of a next rate hike in March. The greenback ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound.

As recommended for subscribers, we did not trade yesterday since we secured our monthly profits. Thus, we did not lose any pips of our monthly performance.

EUR/USD: The pair traded recently sideways between 1.2475 and 1.2385. For euro bulls we recommend waiting for a sustained break above 1.25 in order to participate in the euro’s uptrend. If the euro, however, falls back below 1.24 we may get a retest of 1.2350/30.

GBP/USD: The cable traded with a tailwind and climbed above 1.42. That break was however not sustained, at least until now. If the pound takes out the 1.4235-barrier we may see a run for 1.4285. Sterling bears might wait for a sustained break below 1.41.

Interesting economic reports today:

9:30 UK PMI Manufacturing

15:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Possible Pullbacks In The Greenback – Focus On U.S. Retail Sales

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar was supported by speculation about the trajectory of interest rates before the Fed announcement tomorrow. While a rate hike this month is very unlikely ,chances for an increase later this year have increased. The probability of a rate hike in June is now about 50 percent while analysts see a 63 percent chance of an increase by December.

The euro weakened against the greenback but was able to remain above the 1.1070-50 support area. We will focus on a break of 1.1070/50 in order to sell the pair EUR/USD towards lower levels at 1.10 and 1.0910. On the upside gains could be limited until 1.1160 and 1.1220. With only one day to go before the FOMC announcement the dollar could be vulnerable to pullbacks as U.S. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT are forecast to show a marked decline in February.  

The pound sterling returned to the slippery slope, falling back below 1.43. As stated in yesterday’s analysis we see a current support at 1.4250/40. Once that support level is significantly breached to the downside we will shift our focus towards lower targets at 1.4170 and 1.4120. Current resistances are seen at 1.4310 and 1.4360.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro And Cable Are Stuck In Tight Ranges

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Dear Traders,

As expected, the FOMC minutes failed to trigger any major market movements and both currency pairs traded boringly within tight trading ranges. Consequently, there was nothing to be gained for traders.

Many Federal Reserve officials saw increased downside risks to the outlook for the U.S. economy if the recent global market turmoil, including the slowdown in China was sustained, the minutes showed. While rate hike expectations for 2016 have been gradually priced out, there is still a small chance for the Fed to raise interest rates in the middle of the year. Policy makers emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial developments and so, if the U.S. economy continues to improve the Fed could follow its path of further tightening.

We will wait and see and focus on technical conditions. The EUR/USD formatted a current trading range between 1.12 and 1.11 and traders should rather wait for any sustained breakout above or below that range. If the euro breaks above 1.1215, there is a next hurdle at 1.1240/50, which needs to be broken before we can shift our focus to 1.13 again. On the downside, we expect the 1.1085-70 area to be crucial for further bearish momentum. With a break of 1.1070, we could see the euro falling towards 1.1050 and 1.0990.

The GBP/USD remained well above 1.4240 but was not able to exceed the 1.4340-level. Once the 1.4340-level will be breached to the upside, sterling could rally towards 1.4380 and 1.44. Above 1.4410 the next crucial level could be at 1.4450. However, below 1.4270 we will turn our focus towards the 1.42-mark.

Today we will keep an eye on the following important economic reports which may have an impact on the currencies:

12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Minutes

13:30 USA Philly Fed Index

16:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories

(Time zone GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Advanced Amid Optimistic Fed Comments

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. Dollar traded higher against the euro and British pound amid optimistic comments from Federal Reserve policy makers. Fed officials view the U.S. economy as strong enough to withstand a rate hike in 2015. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart said yesterday he remains confident the central bank will tighten this year and he indicated that the September FOMC decision was a close call.

Investors were relieved and drove the greenback higher, even though yesterday’s Existing Home Sales report was below expectations.

GBP/USD

Sterling declined against the greenback but stopped its slide slightly above 1.5480. Today’s focus will be on U.K. Public Sector Finances, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. Borrowing is expected to show a rise in August, increasing the chances for an upward move towards 1.5570 and 1.5625.

The only piece of eurozone data will be Consumer Confidence, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT. Prior to that, U.S. House Price Index is due for release at 13:00 GMT, but the impact on the currencies could be limited.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fed delays Rate Hike – No appetite for U.S. dollars

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Dear Traders,

The Federal Reserve delayed its rate hike and left interest rates unchanged. Reasons for the Fed’s decision were recent global economic and financial developments which may put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nevertheless, the committee’s outlook has not changed and they repeated to raise rates when they see further improvement in the labor market and stronger inflation.

The question of whether the Fed’s move was right or wrong continues to be controversial.

Those who have hoped for a rate hike were disappointed and sold U.S. dollar as an initial reaction to the decision. We went long and gained a nice profit of 100 pips in the EUR/USD and 91 pips in the GBP/USD. So all in all a profitable trading day even though we had to record some losing trades during the day, but with the right risk-management these losses have been less serious.

There are no important economic reports scheduled for release today. It could therefore be a quiet trading day.

We wish you a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co