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New Month Starts With NFP

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We wish all traders a good and successful start into the month of September. We hope that you were able to recover a little during the summer and have recharged your batteries for trading ; )

Let’s take a look at the technical chart right at the beginning.

EUR/USD

After its last high at 1.1275 in July, the euro only gave up against the U.S. dollar. The tailspin was only stopped in August at just 1.0765, the ascending trendline. If the euro remains below 1.1050 and also falls below the 1.08-mark again, we generally expect a drop to 1.05 (red ellipse). On the other side, the few euro bulls are waiting for a renewed breakout above 1.12.

GBP/USD

The British pound has also been in a downtrend channel since July. The 200-day EMA was able to stop the fall above 1.2550 for the time being, but as long as the pound trades below 1.2850, it remains vulnerable to further losses.

DAX

The index marked a high of 16533 points on July 31. However, this level could not be maintained and so it also went downhill for the German index to 15465. Currently, we see the DAX back in its sideways trading range between 16300 and 15600, which has existed since April of this year. Thus, we have to wait and see.

Today at 12:30 UTC, the U.S. labor market data are due. This news could lead to some volatility in the dollar crosses as usual. We take it leisurely.

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U.S. Dollar Gains Following Strong NFP Report

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The U.S. dollar strengthened against its peers last Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report. The payrolls report came in with 467k jobs versus 125k anticipated in January. Average hourly earnings surged 5.7 percent, fueling speculation about a fifth Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

This week all eyes turn to the U.S. Consumer Price Index scheduled for release on Thursday. Headline inflation is forecast to expand at 7.3 percent y/y, from 7.0 percent in December. A higher reading would likely benefit the greenback.

Technically, we see the EUR/USD trading above 1.14 after the pair hit our profit target at 1.1480. While we might see a steeper correction, euro bulls can hope for further highs as long as the euro remains above 1.1270. A next high is seen at 1.1520, followed by 1.16.

GBP/USD

Remaining below 1.36, our short-term forecast is slightly bearish with a next lower target seen at 1.34. Bulls, on the other side, will pay attention to a break above 1.3610 to buy sterling towards 1.37.

DAX – Bears, watch out!

The index approaches once again the 15000-threshold and could slide towards 14800 if 15000 breaks. A break below 14800 could open the door for a steeper decline towards 14400 and 14200. Above 15700 bulls will be in charge.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar With a Tailwind Ahead of Biden’s Inauguration

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Last week ended with a lack of risk appetite in the market and the anti-risk U.S. dollar benefited as a result, while short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to take a good profit.

Investors are awaiting the inauguration of Joe Biden, who ascends to the U.S. presidency on Wednesday with a speech outlining his approach to the health and economic crisis.

The current rebound in the dollar may persist going into the U.S. Presidential inauguration but we will pay close attention to the technical picture in order to shape near-term expectations. Looking however ahead, the dollar remains vulnerable to further losses over the course of the year.

EUR/USD

The euro gave up on its high price levels and the reason for the pullback was not only a stronger dollar, but also weaker GDP growth in Germany, another political crisis in Italy as well as a slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout in the EU.

Technically, the pair seems to be on its way towards a test of 1.20, or at least 1.2050 from where euro bulls could possibly try to lift the euro out of its current oversold territory. On the upside, there is a lower resistance now at around 1.2160 that could limit near-term upward movements. A break above 1.2180, however, could reinvigorate bullish momentum towards 1.2270.

GBP/USD

The cable gave up all of its recent gains after failing to overcome the 1.37-barrier. It will now be interesting whether the 1.3540-30 area serves as a support, providing some relief for sterling bulls. If the pound drops below 1.3530 we expect further losses towards 1.3450 and possibly even 1.34. For bullish momentum to accelerate we will need to see the pound breaking above 1.3660-70 but more importantly above 1.37.

DAX

The index edged lower after failing to stabilize above the 14000- threshold. We see a lower support at 13450 whereas on the upside, the 14300-level remains of interest.

This could be a quiet start to the new week with U.S. markets being shut today for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Another key event this week will be the European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday but little is expected with all the ECB’s monetary settings likely to remain unchanged.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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Lack Of Direction Ahead Of NFP Report

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Dear Traders,

Both of our major currency pairs have shown a lack of direction in the first trading week of April. In other words, there was no or only little profit for day traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and while we were looking for profitable trading opportunities we were disappointed by directionless and limited swings. However, with the GBP/USD holding above 1.40 the longer-term bullish trend remains attractive- at least for the time being.

EUR/USD

The euro continues to trade within its near-term range between 1.2350 and 1.2250. Traders should pay attention to price breaks either above 1.2360 or below 1.2235. However, we may have to wait until tomorrow’s payrolls to see more meaningful movements in the market.

Currently we see the price fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle since prices narrowed. A break below 1.2260 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.22, provided that the 1.2250-barrier gives way to the bears. Those that are looking for profitable long entries should rather wait for the price to exceed 1.23.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Powell’s Speech To Be Front And Center In The Market

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Dear Traders,

There was little follow-through after the pound broke above 1.4040 but the cause for the cable’s reverse is easy to identify. In the 4-hour chart there is a falling trendline beginning at the January high which prevented sterling bulls from pushing GBP/USD beyond 1.4070. Rather, bears were swooping in around that trendline, sending the cable back towards the 1.39-support. Whether 1.39 holds, remains to be seen. If the pound drops below 1.39 we favor a bearish stance with lower targets at 1.38 and 1.3750. On the topside, we would need to see another break above 1.4050 in order to anticipate further bullish momentum.

Unlike the GBP/USD, the EUR/USD remained within a narrow trading range between 1.2355 and 1.2275.

Today’s testimony from new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be front and center in the markets. At 13:30 UTC Powell’s Congressional Testimony will be released while Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 UTC. This important event risk could have a strong impact on the dollar’s price action which is why traders should prepare for high volatility around his speech.

Powell will testify on the economy and monetary policy and if he gets specific on rate hikes and emphasizes the potential need of even 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar could rally. If he, however, refrains from providing specific guidance on what to expect from the Fed (most likely scenario before the Fed’s next meeting on March 20-21), the dollar could be losing ground against its major counterparts.

Other economic data reports will take a backseat to Powell’s speech today.

We wish you good trades!

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Next Targets To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

For sterling traders Thursday has been another challenging trading day with GBP/USD fluctuating between 1.3990 and 1.3850. The U.K. GDP was revised lower but that report was not enough to spur bearish momentum towards 1.3830 and 1.38. The reason for yesterday’s rise was mainly a weakening USD which gave up gains from the FOMC minutes.

The euro traded higher following the ECB minutes but bullish momentum fizzled out after the euro was unable to overcome the 1.2350-level. The minutes were not overwhelmingly hawkish but what is interesting to note is that ECB officials expressed concern that the Dollar was being deflated artificially by U.S. policy which in turn was lifting the euro.

There are no major reports scheduled for release today that could lead to a major change in sentiment. Thus, we will focus on the technical picture.

EUR/USD: We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2330 and 1.2220. If the euro, however, breaks above 1.2360 bullish momentum could accelerate towards 1.24.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable remains below 1.3970 we prepare for dips towards 1.3880 and 1.3810. A sustained break above 1.40, however, will increase the chances of a bullish run for 1.42.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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USD Steady Ahead Of NFP Report

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Dear Traders,

The British pound further weakened and we got what we were looking for in yesterday’s analysis: a breakout of a symmetrical triangle even if it was a relatively small bearish breakout with losses being limited to a low of 1.3357. If the pound remains below 1.34 we expect further bearish momentum driving GBP/USD towards 1.33. For the short-term bias to shift from bearish to slightly bullish it would need a sustained break above 1.35. A higher target would then be at 1.3650.

There was little movement in the EUR/USD Wednesday while none of our entries was triggered. The euro dropped below 1.18 but found some halt at 1.1780. Whether we will see further losses towards 1.17 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for dollars ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. For bullish momentum to accelerate it would require a break above 1.1920.

ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference as Chair of the Group of Governors and Head of Supervision (GHOS) today at 16:00 UTC. If he touches on monetary policy the euro could respond with some volatile swings.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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All Eyes On The FOMC Decision Even Though No Changes Are Expected

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Dear Traders,

While the euro ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged, the pound sterling headed for a test of 1.33 but reversed some of its gains just shy of that barrier. Whether we will see a sustained breakout above 1.33 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for pounds ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Super Thursday. The bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade but this move is shrouded in suspicion. We will discuss the risk potential in tomorrow’s analysis.

Today’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve and the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars. It could thus be a turbulent trading day with traders bracing for higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC is top listing but the market is virtually certain that no change to the benchmark will be made this month. Economists expect policy makers to keep rates on hold for now and increase them at the December meeting. The probability of a December rate hike is at 83 percent. However, even if today’s Fed decision is unlikely to serve as a big market mover it could still surprise dollar bulls. In case of a less hawkish outcome, in other words, if there are a number of hawkish dissents, the dollar could give up some of its gains. Let us be surprised.

With regard to the U.S. tax reforms, the House Republicans are expected to release the tax bill text on Thursday.

We also have the ADP Report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 14:00 UTC, so there is plenty of economic data that could affect the price action in the greenback today.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD And GBP/USD: Rebounds May Be Short-Lived

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Dear Traders,

Markets were relatively quiet at the beginning of this eventful week while both GBP/USD and EUR/USD were accompanied be a slight upward tendency. We believe that the slight rebound in the euro and British pound could be of a temporary nature as the U.S. dollar faces some event risks with the FOMC decision and Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap. Dollar bulls may tend to jump back in ahead of these events.

The EUR/USD recovered some losses towards 1.1660 but this small recovery could prove to be a correction within a downtrend. For the bias to shift from bearish to neutral euro bulls would need to push the single currency beyond 1.18. As long as the euro remains below 1.18 we favor the bearish bias and focus on a price breakout below 1.1550.

The Eurozone Consumer Price report is due for release today at 10:00 UTC but if CPI print is in line with expectations it will not affect the euro’s price action.

The GBP/USD traded with a tailwind but gains were capped at 1.3215. We consider the 1.3250-barrier to be a crucial short-term resistance in the cable. If the pound drops back below 1.3120 we may see further losses towards 1.3050.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Can FOMC Minutes Fuel Demand For Dollars?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s relief rally has lost some momentum with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD heading upwards. From a technical perspective it is noteworthy that the important resistance levels in both major currency pairs are still unbroken, at least for now. The greenback may receive attraction ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes which are scheduled for release today at 18:00 UTC. Bearing in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates one more time this year followed by another three hikes next year, the minutes should confirm the hawkish outlook. While this alone is dollar positive we have to consider that a December rate hike has been largely priced in by the markets. Thus, the minutes could possibly be a non-event for traders today but let us be surprised.

On the flipside, the euro received some support from Catalonia’s president Carles Puigdemont who stepped back from an immediate declaration of independence from Spain. He said he would “suspend” the referendum result for a period of some weeks for dialogue with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration. The euro rose towards its resistance area at 1.1830-40 but as long as that barrier remains unbroken, we expect the euro to drop back towards 1.1775 and possible even 1.17.

The British pound touched the lower bound of its current resistance zone ranging from 1.3250 to 1.3220. In short-term time frames we see the cable formatting a potential double top pattern which could predict upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the cable remains below 1.3230. A break below 1.3175 could reignite bearish momentum driving the pair towards 1.3130.

Apart from the FOMC minutes there are no major drivers in the market today. Let us wait to be surprised.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co