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Lack Of Direction Ahead Of NFP Report

Dear Traders,

Both of our major currency pairs have shown a lack of direction in the first trading week of April. In other words, there was no or only little profit for day traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and while we were looking for profitable trading opportunities we were disappointed by directionless and limited swings. However, with the GBP/USD holding above 1.40 the longer-term bullish trend remains attractive- at least for the time being.

EUR/USD

The euro continues to trade within its near-term range between 1.2350 and 1.2250. Traders should pay attention to price breaks either above 1.2360 or below 1.2235. However, we may have to wait until tomorrow’s payrolls to see more meaningful movements in the market.

Currently we see the price fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle since prices narrowed. A break below 1.2260 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.22, provided that the 1.2250-barrier gives way to the bears. Those that are looking for profitable long entries should rather wait for the price to exceed 1.23.

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Powell’s Speech To Be Front And Center In The Market

Dear Traders,

There was little follow-through after the pound broke above 1.4040 but the cause for the cable’s reverse is easy to identify. In the 4-hour chart there is a falling trendline beginning at the January high which prevented sterling bulls from pushing GBP/USD beyond 1.4070. Rather, bears were swooping in around that trendline, sending the cable back towards the 1.39-support. Whether 1.39 holds, remains to be seen. If the pound drops below 1.39 we favor a bearish stance with lower targets at 1.38 and 1.3750. On the topside, we would need to see another break above 1.4050 in order to anticipate further bullish momentum.

Unlike the GBP/USD, the EUR/USD remained within a narrow trading range between 1.2355 and 1.2275.

Today’s testimony from new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be front and center in the markets. At 13:30 UTC Powell’s Congressional Testimony will be released while Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 UTC. This important event risk could have a strong impact on the dollar’s price action which is why traders should prepare for high volatility around his speech.

Powell will testify on the economy and monetary policy and if he gets specific on rate hikes and emphasizes the potential need of even 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar could rally. If he, however, refrains from providing specific guidance on what to expect from the Fed (most likely scenario before the Fed’s next meeting on March 20-21), the dollar could be losing ground against its major counterparts.

Other economic data reports will take a backseat to Powell’s speech today.

We wish you good trades!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Next Targets To Watch Out For

Dear Traders,

For sterling traders Thursday has been another challenging trading day with GBP/USD fluctuating between 1.3990 and 1.3850. The U.K. GDP was revised lower but that report was not enough to spur bearish momentum towards 1.3830 and 1.38. The reason for yesterday’s rise was mainly a weakening USD which gave up gains from the FOMC minutes.

The euro traded higher following the ECB minutes but bullish momentum fizzled out after the euro was unable to overcome the 1.2350-level. The minutes were not overwhelmingly hawkish but what is interesting to note is that ECB officials expressed concern that the Dollar was being deflated artificially by U.S. policy which in turn was lifting the euro.

There are no major reports scheduled for release today that could lead to a major change in sentiment. Thus, we will focus on the technical picture.

EUR/USD: We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2330 and 1.2220. If the euro, however, breaks above 1.2360 bullish momentum could accelerate towards 1.24.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable remains below 1.3970 we prepare for dips towards 1.3880 and 1.3810. A sustained break above 1.40, however, will increase the chances of a bullish run for 1.42.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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USD Steady Ahead Of NFP Report

Dear Traders,

The British pound further weakened and we got what we were looking for in yesterday’s analysis: a breakout of a symmetrical triangle even if it was a relatively small bearish breakout with losses being limited to a low of 1.3357. If the pound remains below 1.34 we expect further bearish momentum driving GBP/USD towards 1.33. For the short-term bias to shift from bearish to slightly bullish it would need a sustained break above 1.35. A higher target would then be at 1.3650.

There was little movement in the EUR/USD Wednesday while none of our entries was triggered. The euro dropped below 1.18 but found some halt at 1.1780. Whether we will see further losses towards 1.17 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for dollars ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. For bullish momentum to accelerate it would require a break above 1.1920.

ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference as Chair of the Group of Governors and Head of Supervision (GHOS) today at 16:00 UTC. If he touches on monetary policy the euro could respond with some volatile swings.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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All Eyes On The FOMC Decision Even Though No Changes Are Expected

Dear Traders,

While the euro ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged, the pound sterling headed for a test of 1.33 but reversed some of its gains just shy of that barrier. Whether we will see a sustained breakout above 1.33 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for pounds ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Super Thursday. The bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade but this move is shrouded in suspicion. We will discuss the risk potential in tomorrow’s analysis.

Today’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve and the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars. It could thus be a turbulent trading day with traders bracing for higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC is top listing but the market is virtually certain that no change to the benchmark will be made this month. Economists expect policy makers to keep rates on hold for now and increase them at the December meeting. The probability of a December rate hike is at 83 percent. However, even if today’s Fed decision is unlikely to serve as a big market mover it could still surprise dollar bulls. In case of a less hawkish outcome, in other words, if there are a number of hawkish dissents, the dollar could give up some of its gains. Let us be surprised.

With regard to the U.S. tax reforms, the House Republicans are expected to release the tax bill text on Thursday.

We also have the ADP Report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 14:00 UTC, so there is plenty of economic data that could affect the price action in the greenback today.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

EUR/USD And GBP/USD: Rebounds May Be Short-Lived

Dear Traders,

Markets were relatively quiet at the beginning of this eventful week while both GBP/USD and EUR/USD were accompanied be a slight upward tendency. We believe that the slight rebound in the euro and British pound could be of a temporary nature as the U.S. dollar faces some event risks with the FOMC decision and Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap. Dollar bulls may tend to jump back in ahead of these events.

The EUR/USD recovered some losses towards 1.1660 but this small recovery could prove to be a correction within a downtrend. For the bias to shift from bearish to neutral euro bulls would need to push the single currency beyond 1.18. As long as the euro remains below 1.18 we favor the bearish bias and focus on a price breakout below 1.1550.

The Eurozone Consumer Price report is due for release today at 10:00 UTC but if CPI print is in line with expectations it will not affect the euro’s price action.

The GBP/USD traded with a tailwind but gains were capped at 1.3215. We consider the 1.3250-barrier to be a crucial short-term resistance in the cable. If the pound drops back below 1.3120 we may see further losses towards 1.3050.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Can FOMC Minutes Fuel Demand For Dollars?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s relief rally has lost some momentum with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD heading upwards. From a technical perspective it is noteworthy that the important resistance levels in both major currency pairs are still unbroken, at least for now. The greenback may receive attraction ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes which are scheduled for release today at 18:00 UTC. Bearing in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates one more time this year followed by another three hikes next year, the minutes should confirm the hawkish outlook. While this alone is dollar positive we have to consider that a December rate hike has been largely priced in by the markets. Thus, the minutes could possibly be a non-event for traders today but let us be surprised.

On the flipside, the euro received some support from Catalonia’s president Carles Puigdemont who stepped back from an immediate declaration of independence from Spain. He said he would “suspend” the referendum result for a period of some weeks for dialogue with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration. The euro rose towards its resistance area at 1.1830-40 but as long as that barrier remains unbroken, we expect the euro to drop back towards 1.1775 and possible even 1.17.

The British pound touched the lower bound of its current resistance zone ranging from 1.3250 to 1.3220. In short-term time frames we see the cable formatting a potential double top pattern which could predict upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the cable remains below 1.3230. A break below 1.3175 could reignite bearish momentum driving the pair towards 1.3130.

Apart from the FOMC minutes there are no major drivers in the market today. Let us wait to be surprised.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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British Pound Takes Breather On Carney Comments

Dear Traders,

Monday has been a quite challenging trading day for traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. While the British pound declined against the U.S. dollar after Bank of England Governor Carney’s comments were interpreted as more dovish following last week’s MPC statement, we have shot all our powder and finally missed out on the profitable bearish movement in the GBP/USD.

Carney reinforced the BoE’s view that the rate hike cycle in the U.K. will be “limited and gradual” and acknowledged that there was still clear concern over the health of the economy amid Brexit. His comments weakened the pound in the short term. GBP/USD traded consolidated and fell towards 1.3460. We now see a lower support at 1.34/1.3380 and if the pound drops below that level we may see a correction towards 1.33. On the topside, the 1.3620-level remains unbroken and sterling bulls may focus on a bullish break of that resistance level in order to buy pounds towards 1.38.

The euro traded sideways between 1.1970 and 1.1915. We now focus on price breakouts either above 1.1990 or below 1.1935. The German and Eurozone ZEW Survey are both scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC today and may have a slight impact on the euro.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro And Cable Fall In Thin Trading

Dear Traders,

Trading was quiet on Monday with the euro and cable trading within tight trading ranges. Only at the end of the trading day, prices gathered momentum. The euro fell in thin trading below 1.1160 and headed towards 1.11. The cable dipped slightly below 1.28 but was able to hold above that support level. We now expect the 1.2760-level to lend some short-term support to the pound. Above 1.2865 however, the pound could head for a test of 1.2950/60.

EUR/USD

The euro broke below the 1.1160-support and as a result, bearish momentum accelerated. The euro might tend to test the 1.11-threshold before we see a reversal. On the upside we see a resistance at 1.1170 until which potential gains could be limited while on the bottom side, a crucial support area is currently seen at around 1.1080.

Important economic data for today:

12:00 EUR German Consumer Price

12:30 USA PCE Report

14:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Euro Strength: No End In Sight, Next Target 1.13?

Dear Traders,

The euro further advanced against the U.S. dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro is “too weak” because of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Her statement gave traders yet another reason to buy euros towards the next resistance level at 1.13. Speaking of euro strength, an end to the rally is not yet in sight and if the euro overcomes the 1.13-reistance significantly, we may see a run for 1.1420/50. A current support is however seen at around 1.1215, followed by a stronger support zone near 1.1170.

The German PMI report is scheduled for release at 7:30 UTC, followed by the German IFO Index 30 minutes later. However, none of these reports is expected to have a significant impact on the euro’s price action.

The British pound failed to make significant progress above the 1.30 level, whereas, on the other side, it was little affected by a terrorist attack at a concert in Manchester in which 22 people were killed. The pound traded resiliently between 1.3050 and 1.2965 and as long as it remains firmly above 1.29 we do not see any major downside risks. On the topside, the 1.3065-mark needs to be broken in order to spark fresh bullish momentum.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co