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New Month Starts With NFP

We wish all traders a good and successful start into the month of September. We hope that you were able to recover a little during the summer and have recharged your batteries for trading ; )

Let’s take a look at the technical chart right at the beginning.

EUR/USD

After its last high at 1.1275 in July, the euro only gave up against the U.S. dollar. The tailspin was only stopped in August at just 1.0765, the ascending trendline. If the euro remains below 1.1050 and also falls below the 1.08-mark again, we generally expect a drop to 1.05 (red ellipse). On the other side, the few euro bulls are waiting for a renewed breakout above 1.12.

GBP/USD

The British pound has also been in a downtrend channel since July. The 200-day EMA was able to stop the fall above 1.2550 for the time being, but as long as the pound trades below 1.2850, it remains vulnerable to further losses.

DAX

The index marked a high of 16533 points on July 31. However, this level could not be maintained and so it also went downhill for the German index to 15465. Currently, we see the DAX back in its sideways trading range between 16300 and 15600, which has existed since April of this year. Thus, we have to wait and see.

Today at 12:30 UTC, the U.S. labor market data are due. This news could lead to some volatility in the dollar crosses as usual. We take it leisurely.

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U.S. Dollar Gains Following Strong NFP Report

The U.S. dollar strengthened against its peers last Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report. The payrolls report came in with 467k jobs versus 125k anticipated in January. Average hourly earnings surged 5.7 percent, fueling speculation about a fifth Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

This week all eyes turn to the U.S. Consumer Price Index scheduled for release on Thursday. Headline inflation is forecast to expand at 7.3 percent y/y, from 7.0 percent in December. A higher reading would likely benefit the greenback.

Technically, we see the EUR/USD trading above 1.14 after the pair hit our profit target at 1.1480. While we might see a steeper correction, euro bulls can hope for further highs as long as the euro remains above 1.1270. A next high is seen at 1.1520, followed by 1.16.

GBP/USD

Remaining below 1.36, our short-term forecast is slightly bearish with a next lower target seen at 1.34. Bulls, on the other side, will pay attention to a break above 1.3610 to buy sterling towards 1.37.

DAX – Bears, watch out!

The index approaches once again the 15000-threshold and could slide towards 14800 if 15000 breaks. A break below 14800 could open the door for a steeper decline towards 14400 and 14200. Above 15700 bulls will be in charge.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar With a Tailwind Ahead of Biden’s Inauguration

Last week ended with a lack of risk appetite in the market and the anti-risk U.S. dollar benefited as a result, while short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to take a good profit.

Investors are awaiting the inauguration of Joe Biden, who ascends to the U.S. presidency on Wednesday with a speech outlining his approach to the health and economic crisis.

The current rebound in the dollar may persist going into the U.S. Presidential inauguration but we will pay close attention to the technical picture in order to shape near-term expectations. Looking however ahead, the dollar remains vulnerable to further losses over the course of the year.

EUR/USD

The euro gave up on its high price levels and the reason for the pullback was not only a stronger dollar, but also weaker GDP growth in Germany, another political crisis in Italy as well as a slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout in the EU.

Technically, the pair seems to be on its way towards a test of 1.20, or at least 1.2050 from where euro bulls could possibly try to lift the euro out of its current oversold territory. On the upside, there is a lower resistance now at around 1.2160 that could limit near-term upward movements. A break above 1.2180, however, could reinvigorate bullish momentum towards 1.2270.

GBP/USD

The cable gave up all of its recent gains after failing to overcome the 1.37-barrier. It will now be interesting whether the 1.3540-30 area serves as a support, providing some relief for sterling bulls. If the pound drops below 1.3530 we expect further losses towards 1.3450 and possibly even 1.34. For bullish momentum to accelerate we will need to see the pound breaking above 1.3660-70 but more importantly above 1.37.

DAX

The index edged lower after failing to stabilize above the 14000- threshold. We see a lower support at 13450 whereas on the upside, the 14300-level remains of interest.

This could be a quiet start to the new week with U.S. markets being shut today for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Another key event this week will be the European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday but little is expected with all the ECB’s monetary settings likely to remain unchanged.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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GBP/USD: Primed For a Run Towards 1.35?

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British Pound Climbs on Optimism About Brexit Deal By Mid-November

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