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EUR/USD: Inverted Head-shoulder Pattern To Predict Further Gains?

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EUR/USD: Inverted head-shoulder pattern to predict further gains?

The euro held firmly above 1.05, exiting its primary downtrend channel, and is now flirting with the upper 1.07-area. Will we see a next leg up towards 1.12 or possibly 1.14? Chances for a bullish breakout increase as long as the common currency remains above 1.0450 and climbs above 1.08.

For the sentiment to shift from bullish to bearish, however, we must see a fall below 1.03.

Next interesting data release will be tomorrow’s U.S. CPI which could set the tone for the coming days.

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EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Next Targets To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

For sterling traders Thursday has been another challenging trading day with GBP/USD fluctuating between 1.3990 and 1.3850. The U.K. GDP was revised lower but that report was not enough to spur bearish momentum towards 1.3830 and 1.38. The reason for yesterday’s rise was mainly a weakening USD which gave up gains from the FOMC minutes.

The euro traded higher following the ECB minutes but bullish momentum fizzled out after the euro was unable to overcome the 1.2350-level. The minutes were not overwhelmingly hawkish but what is interesting to note is that ECB officials expressed concern that the Dollar was being deflated artificially by U.S. policy which in turn was lifting the euro.

There are no major reports scheduled for release today that could lead to a major change in sentiment. Thus, we will focus on the technical picture.

EUR/USD: We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2330 and 1.2220. If the euro, however, breaks above 1.2360 bullish momentum could accelerate towards 1.24.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable remains below 1.3970 we prepare for dips towards 1.3880 and 1.3810. A sustained break above 1.40, however, will increase the chances of a bullish run for 1.42.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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U.S. Inflation Print To Impact The Dollar’s Price Action

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Dear Traders,

We got what we were looking for in the GBP/USD: A breakout of the cable’s narrow trading range even though that breakout has proved not as strong as we had hoped for. Sterling bulls attempted to push the pound above 1.39 but bullish momentum was somewhat muted following the U.K. January inflation print which came in at 3 percent, better than the 2.9 percent forecast ahead of the release. Overall, rising prices and economic fundamentals create conditions for a stronger currency even if Brexit risks are the main concern for investors.

Technically speaking, we now expect the GBP/USD to trade with a slight upward tilt heading towards 1.3970/80. If the pound is able to take out the 1.40-hurdle again, we will focus on higher targets around 1.4160. A current support is seen around 1.3740.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.2340 and is currently heading towards 1.24. If it breaks significantly above 1.2410, we may see another leg up towards 1.2470. As long as 1.23 holds, chances are in favor of the bulls. Euro bears should better wait for prices below 1.2280.

Today’s focus turns to the U.S. inflation figures due at 13:30 UTC. The U.S. Consumer price index probably increased at a moderate pace in January. Investors will pay particular attention to that report, which is why potential surprises in the inflation print could have a significant impact on the dollar.

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Forex Market Remains Subdued

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Dear Traders,

The price action in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remains subdued amid the lack of market-moving economic reports and risk events throughout this week.

EUR/USD: The euro stabilized above the 1.1550-level and appears to be headed for another test of the 1.1615-resistance. If the 1.1615/20-barrier gives way to fresh bullish momentum we may see the euro rising towards 1.1650/60. For bearish momentum to accelerate it would need a sustained break below 1.1520.

GBP/USD: The cable traded with a tailwind after it rejected the 1.31-support. We now focus on a potential trading range between 1.3220 and 1.3130. Sterling bulls could benefit from price breakouts above 1.3180 while bears should wait for prices below 1.3130 in order to sell sterling towards 1.31 and 1.3070.

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Sterling Traders Focus On U.K. CPI Data

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Dear Traders,

We have seen a bit of a bearish reversal in EUR/USD Monday with the U.S. dollar recovering against the euro. Although yesterday’s slide in EUR/USD does not automatically mean that there will be a trend reversal, it should be noted that the technical picture may promise more downside momentum to come. If the euro falls below 1.1920 and further 1.1885 we could see a slide towards 1.1830. On the topside, buyers in the EUR/USD would first need to push the pair above 1.2030 in order to focus on higher targets at 1.21 and 1.2170.

The British pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback with GBP/USD remaining confined to a narrow trading range between 1.3225 and 1.3160. Traders await the U.K. CPI report, due for release at 8:30 UTC today and if inflation data shows an uptick in August, the Bank of England may feel pressure to turn away from its dovish monetary policy stance. This would be positive for the pound but most volatility is expected on Thursday when the BoE announces its rate decision and outlook on policy.

If the pound rises above 1.3225 we may see a run for 1.3265. We bear in mind that the August high is at 1.3268, so sellers may sweep in to sell pounds around that resistance level. On the downside, we expect a support to be at around 1.3050.

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Forex Market Unfazed By North Korea Provocations

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Dear Traders,

There was not much to gain for daytraders yesterday or, more explicitly, the Forex market was unfazed by the developments on the North Korea front. Following North Korea’s nuclear test and latest provocative actions, there was an increasing demand for safe havens such as Gold but on the currency front, there was no clear trend on Monday. In recent times, markets generally tend to ignore large risks, rather, they are betting against them. Whether this behavior is an underestimation or the right preparation remains to be seen.

EUR/USD hovered around 1.19 but with US markets closed for a holiday, insufficient liquidity hindered the currency pair to rally. We now focus on the short-term resistance at 1.1920. If the pair is able to break through that barrier, we expect higher targets at 1.1960 and possibly even another run for 1.20. On the bottom side, traders should pay attention to a break below 1.1860. A lower target could then be at 1.1825, followed by 1.1785.

GBP/USD trended lower but remained well above 1.29. As noted in yesterday’s analysis, the cable would need to break significantly below 1.29 in order to invigorate fresh bearish momentum. As long as 1.29 remains unbroken we favor a neutral stance in this pair. A break above 1.2960 could encourage buyers for another test of 1.30.

The U.K. Services PMI is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC.

From the U.S., we have Durable Goods Orders due for release at 14:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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GBP/USD: Highly Profitable Trading

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Dear Traders,

Those of you who traded the GBP/USD recently, were able to achieve a significant profit by trading our daily signal alerts. Yesterday, this was once more the case while our short trade hit the profit target in less than five minutes. The pound slid to a low of 1.2602 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he is still worried about the impact of Brexit on the economy. Carney said in yesterday’s morning statement that now is not the time to hike rates. In short, his view is still very bearish and with Brexit negotiations having just begun it could be a bumpy road for the U.K. in the next months. In case of any bad headlines, the pound will fall but looking at the technical picture, we currently see chances of a, at least short-term, recovery from sterling’s low levels.

GBP/USD

The currency pair stopped its fall at the lower bound of its recent downward channel. While this does not necessarily mean that further losses are unlikely, that halt just increases the likelihood of a potential pullback towards 1.27 and 1.28. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches oversold territory, underpinning the chances of short-term upward movements. If the pound drops however below 1.2590 we expect accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.2550 and 1.25.

The performance of the EUR/USD is lagging behind since price fluctuations narrowed. The euro declined on the back of a slightly stronger U.S. dollar but the decline was limited to a low of 1.1118. We will now pay attention to a break of 1.11. After the 1.1075-level has been breached, we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.1020. Current resistances are however seen at 1.1150 and 1.12.

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Euro And Pound Resume Uptrend

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Dear Traders,

The British pound traded higher against the greenback in the run-up to Thursday’s U.K. election. A recent poll has suggested that Theresa May’s Conservatives may still maintain a lead over the Labour Party. The GBP/USD broke significantly above 1.29 and headed towards 1.2950. We expect a next resistance to come in between 1.2985 – 1.2950. For the pound to rally, it would require a renewed break above 1.30. A current support is however seen at 1.2885.

The EUR/USD found support at 1.1235, so yesterday’s downswing might be considered a normal correction within the recent uptrend of the currency pair. If the euro falls below 1.12 we could see a steeper decline towards 1.1160/40. On the topside, we anticipate next hurdles at 1.1320 and 1.1360.

There are no major economic data reports scheduled for release today, so the market activity could be subdued.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Forex Market Is Fairly Quiet In The Absence Of Market Movers

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Dear Traders,

While concerns over French elections have disappeared after the market-favorable Macron victory, the euro’s response was anything but enthusiastic. Rather, the single currency favored lower price targets near 1.0915 after having rejected the 1.10-resistance. Euro traders should now pay attention to the 1.0890-support level which may prove to be the new lower bound of the euro’s current upward trend channel. If the 1.0890-support gives way to bearish pressure, the focus shifts to a break of 1.0850 and further 1.0820. On the topside we will pay attention to a potential re-test of 1.10 which could result in a sustained bullish breakout. In the absence of catalyst to spur further momentum we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.10 and 1.0895.

The GBP/USD did not move much and traded within a narrow 55-pips trading range. Ahead of the BoE’s quarterly inflation report on Thursday sterling traders may refrain from taking any risks, which is why we anticipate sideways movements between 1.30 and 1.2860. In short-term time frames we expect a next support at around 1.29, whereas a lower resistance could be at 1.2975.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Can The Euro Hold Onto Its High Price Level?

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Dear Traders,

The euro broke above Monday’s spike high at 1.0923 but gains were capped at 1.0950, at least for the time being. The question now is whether there is still room for further gains. Looking at the 4-hour and daily chart we see that the EUR/USD is in overbought territory, a situation that increases the likelihood of upcoming corrections. We see a next hurdle at around 1.0970 followed by a stronger resistance at 1.10. As long as the euro remains firmly below 1.10 we prepare for corrective movements towards 1.09, 1.0840 and possibly even 1.0750.

The British pound rose towards the upper bound of its recent sideways trading range but still refrained from an upside break above 1.2850. As noted in previous analysis, sterling bulls better wait for a significant break above 1.2860 in order to buy pounds towards 1.30. A break below 1.2730 however, could send the pound tumbling towards 1.2650.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so the price action could hinge on U.S. President Trump’s tax-reform speech. Trump is expected to unveil a tax plan that includes a cut of the corporate rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. If he delivers we could see some renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co