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Will NFP Help Or Hurt U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Thursday was the rise of the euro which has surged to a high of 1.0987. The euro is currently supported by expectations of a Macron win in the final round of French elections this Sunday. While we bear in mind that if Le Pen surprises on Sunday, the market’s reaction would be far greater, the most likely scenario is however a victory of the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Macron. Markets are therefore unlikely to budge much if Macron wins.

Apart from the French election, great attention will be paid to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which appears to be the market-moving event for this week. The U.S. Jobs report is forecast to show a job growth of 190K jobs last month but the focus will also be on Average Hourly earnings. A large miss in this key figure or a disappointment in payrolls growth may raise doubts about a Fed June rate hike. In other words, a disappointment would have a greater impact on the market than a strong report. In case of a weaker jobs report the U.S. dollar could come under strong selling pressure.

The NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

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Euro Steady Ahead Of French Elections – The Calm Before The Storm?

Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after the euro had risen to a high of 1.0777 whereas the cable had rejected the 1.2850-resistance. The limited upward movement was due to a slight increase in the dollar after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spread optimism that the Trump administration is close to bringing forward major tax reform. He said the White House will unveil a tax plan “very soon”.

Meanwhile, the euro held steady above 1.07 after a police officer was killed in Paris just days before France’s presidential election starts. The incident could have an impact on the outcome of the first round of the election on Sunday since the Islamic State is claiming responsibility for the attack.

Polling is suggesting it will be a close call between independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. The two leading candidates will run off in a winner-takes-all contest on May 7.

EUR/USD- The calm before the storm?

The euro performed quite resiliently ahead of the most tightly contested elections in France.

On a technical basis, we will focus on a current trading range between 1.0740 and 1.0680. A renewed break above 1.0740 may boost bullish momentum until a fresh high at 1.08. We would speak of a bullish breakout in case the euro climbs above 1.0820. A higher target could be at 1.0950. However, below 1.0680/70 we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.0640 and 1.06. A break below 1.0590 could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

The British pound was unable to take the hurdle at 1.2850 and dropped back below 1.28. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading between 1.2860 and 1.2770 we do not pay much attention to the cable’s price action. A break below 1.2770 would shift the focus to lower targets near 1.27 and 1.26 whereas it would need a sustained break above 1.2860 to spark bullish momentum towards 1.2950.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and will draw traders’ attention.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable Consolidate Following Strong Moves

Dear Traders,

The British pound gave up some of the gains it had made on Tuesday and fell back below 1.28. As long as the pound remains above the 1.26-mark, the recent drop could be considered a correction within the recent uptrend. We will now focus on a break above the short-term resistance at 1.2860. Once that level has been breached to the upside, sterling could make a run for 1.2950. A short-term support could however be at 1.2750 and 1.2720.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at an event in Washington today at 17:30 UTC and his comments could have an impact on the pound, provided that he refers to the BoE’s monetary policy.

The euro held above the 1.07-level and market participants seem to be shying away from taking any positions in the EUR/USD ahead of France’s presidential election this weekend. From a technical perspective, we see a symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour chart which could predict small breakouts.

Above 1.0720 the euro could rise towards 1.0760, whereas a break below 1.07 may send the euro towards 1.0675. However, given the risk aversion in the market we do not expect larger fluctuations within the next 48 hours.

 

From the U.S., we have the Philadelphia Fed Index due for release at 12:30 UTC but we doubt that this report will have a major impact on the greenback.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sluggish Market Conditions Persist Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Dear Traders,

Risk aversion and the liquidity drain ahead of the Easter holiday are hobbling the market. Tuesday’s best performer, however, was the British pound which soared to a high of 1.2494. The pound sterling benefited from a weakening U.S. dollar, which suffered some losses amid geopolitical tensions. The U.S.’s recent tougher stance created a new round of risk aversion in the market. However, the longer-term outlook for the dollar is still positive, including higher interest rates from the Fed while dollar bulls are likely to return to the market after the Easter break.

GBP/USD

The bullish movement has stalled near 1.25, a level that is considered a short-term resistance for the currency pair. The pound could possibly extend its gains to 1.2510/15 before we see a stronger correction. A break above 1.2525 however, could open the door for further bullish momentum, driving the cable towards the higher resistance zone around 1.2550/85. A current support is seen around 1.2430.

The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the price action. At the same time, Bank of England Governor Carney will speak at an event in London.

EUR/USD

The euro rose to a weekly high of 1.0630 but the currency pair’s price action is still confined to a narrow trading range. For breakout traders there was nothing to gain amid this subdued price development. The situation could persist until the French presidential election on April 23 as investors remain cautious ahead of that trend-setting event. For the time being we expect the euro’s price development to be limited to a range of 1.0650 and 1.0575.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sluggish Market Environment Continues

Dear Traders,

Euro and sterling traders had no reason for rejoicing, even though we saw a slight increase in volatility on Wednesday. Yet there were no breakouts in both major currency pairs and while the cable rose to a high of 1.25, the currency pair was unable to overcome that hurdle, at least until now. The euro – how could it be different – remained sideways between 1.07 and 1.0630. With elections looming in France, investors are risk-averse and refrain from making any new investments in the euro until the political situation becomes more stable. This explains the moderate price development.

The FOMC minutes did little to alter the market’s view on the Fed’s 3-hike total policy outlook in 2017. While minutes restated an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, the discussion on shrinking the U.S. central bank’s balance sheet later this year drew most attention. There is speculation that the balance-sheet reduction could damp the need for further tightening from the Fed. The U.S. dollar weakened in response to the Fed’s comments on its balance sheet policy.

From a technical view, there is nothing new to report. We are still waiting for sustained breakouts in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. With no fresh impetus to the market we expect the cable to remain between 1.2520 and 1.2430, whereas trading the euro only becomes interesting if the pair breaks above 1.07 or below 1.06.

Apart from a speech of ECB president Mario Draghi in the morning at 7:00 UTC, the U.S.-China summit will be of high importance.

Daily Forex signals:

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View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co