Posts

Brexit Polls Dominate The Market

Dear Traders,

At present, nothing affects the market more than any new Brexit polls and the associated risks and fears determine the price action in both major currency pairs. While any incoming economic data, whether it is good or bad, is currently taking a back seat, the market seems to be only focussed on the recent U.K. referendum polls. Only yesterday, we learned how sensitive market participants are to shifts in opinion polls, whereby an online poll put the Brexit camp ahead, in contrast to a previous poll showing a lead for the ‘Remain’ camp. As stated in yesterday’s analysis, traders should expect more volatility in the run-up to the U.K. vote which is why both currency pairs remain vulnerable to wild swings.

The euro dropped on Brexit risks, but remained confined to a narrow trading range between 1.1173 and 1.1122 on Tuesday. The performance of the EUR/USD was therefore muted and unfortunately did not provide any sustained profit for day traders. However, the recent downward channel is still intact with a current resistance line at 1.1163 and on the other hand, a support line at 1.1073. The German Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 7:55 UTC but we do not expect this report to have a major impact on the euro.

The British pound fell sharply as two ICM opinion polls showed the Brexit camp ahead. Short-trader’s efforts thus paid off and we were able to pocket a nice profit on the last trading day of May. Given that bearish momentum, we will now focus on a break below the recent support at 1.4442 in order to sell the pound towards 1.4405 in a first step. If sterling drops significantly below 1.4385 we see a next support at 1.4340. A current resistance is seen at 1.4522. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI is due at 8:30 UTC and economists forecast an uptick in May. Whatever the case, Brexit concerns will continue to determine the performance in the pound.

From the U.S. the most important piece of economic data will be the ISM Manufacturing Index, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC. Any unexpected outcomes should affect the dollar accordingly.

Last but not least, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book at 18:00 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Is Undervalued After Investors Pushed Rate-Hike Expectations Into Far Distance

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of May and we hope for new profitable opportunities and greater willingness on the part of investors to take risks, increasing the volatility on the markets.

Today’s analysis will be brief due to a public holiday.

This week’s main risk event will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday but analysts doubt that the report will help the U.S. dollar strengthen. On the contrary, if labor market data fail to impress, the greenback could be vulnerable to further losses, sending its major peers even higher. Before going into Friday’s report, both ISM indices, scheduled for release on Monday and Wednesday, could help evaluating the payrolls’ possible outcome.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today at 14:00 UTC in Frankfurt, which could affect the euro in the short-term.

Important data and speeches for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

14:00 EUR Draghi speaks

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Payrolls To Be A Glimmer Of Hope For The USD

Dear Traders,

Bulls take control of both major currency pairs, although the British pound struggled with an extension of its recent gains. As noted in previous analysis, we still expect the pound to come under renewed pressure in the near-term and we anticipate a drop towards 1.4280 and 1.42. The technical picture is discussed later on. The euro, however, tested the 1.14-barrier after the 1.13-support has proved to be resilient.

All eyes will be on the U.S. Payroll report scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today. Nonetheless a strong report probably wouldn’t be a game changer for the Fed’s outlook after Mrs. Yellen sent a clear signal to proceed cautiously. In case of a strong labor market report the highest importance is attached to a much-needed acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings must show an uptick in order to revive any strength in the U.S. dollar. However, if wages fail to show acceleration the greenback could suffer further losses.

Furthermore the most important leading indicator for payrolls – the ISM Manufacturing index – is only due for release after the jobs report (14:00 GMT) but could still affect the price action in the USD.

Let’s have a look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

It all depends on the demand for USD but given the recent uptrend channel upside movements could be limited until 1.1420. Once the euro breaks above 1.1430 it could head toward the key resistance at 1.15. However if NFP numbers are strong the dollar could strengthen, leading to a correction in the recent uptrend. Current supports are seen at 1.13 and 1.1220, but given the bullish bias euro bulls are likely to buy any pullback.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

GBP/USD

After peaking at 1.4459 the pound favored the downtrend and is now facing an important support at 1.43. Once this support has been significantly breached to the downside, we expect the pound to drop towards 1.4250 and 1.42. Below 1.4190 it could even decline towards 1.4150 and 1.4060. After the break above 1.44 turned out to be unreliable for sterling bulls, it might be better to wait for prices above 1.4435 and further 1.4465.

 

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

We wish every trader profitable trades.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

EUR/USD To Remain Under Pressure- Focus On 1.08

Dear Traders,

Those who traded the British pound Monday had to have patience as the cable provided only later some gains towards the 1.3950-barrier. After a false bearish break-out below 1.3840, GBP recovered its losses and is currently facing a next resistance at 1.3950. Once it breaks above 1.3965, we might see a renewed test of 1.40/1.4020.

The most important U.K. data will be Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and if data surprises to the downside, we expect sterling to fall back below 1.39. A lower target could be at 1.3820.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus at the ECB’s next meeting on March 10. Euro-area inflation turned negative in February putting pressure on the central bank to consider further easing. Within the next few days we expect the euro to trend lower against the greenback. For the time being, we focus on the 1.08-mark, which could act as a current support for the EUR/USD. Bearish momentum could accelerate with a break below 1.0770.

Traders should keep an eye on important economic data such as the German Unemployment report, due at 8:55 GMT and from the U.S. the ISM Manufacturing index, scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro In A Waiting Mode – Cable Found Support At 1.50

Dear Traders,

The recent decline in the British pound came to a temporary halt after a short dip below the 1.50-level. As we noted in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.50-level will be important to watch this week and as long as this support remains intact, sterling bulls may push GBP for a test of 1.5130/50.

The EUR/USD appears to be in a waiting mode ahead of the ECB policy decision and there was only little consistency in the euro’s performance yesterday. The 1.06-mark acts as a current resistance for the currency pair. With a break above 1.0620, the focus will turn to higher targets at 1.0640 and 1.0660. Nevertheless, the euro is likely to favor a bearish stance going into Thursday’s big event.

What will be important today?

The German employment report is due for release at 8:55 GMT, but the impact on the euro could be limited as the market is focused on the ECB. Sterling traders should pay attention to the speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney, who is due to speak at 9:00 GMT. Despite a healthy growth of the U.K. economy, BoE officials have highlighted concerns about parts of the U.K. financial system. Carney’s comments could therefore have a significant impact on the GBP’s further direction.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT. Any positive surprises are likely to reinforce dollar buying.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Strength Ahead of NFP-Report

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of October.

The euro declined against the greenback after consumer prices in the Eurozone turned negative for the first time in six months. The drop in the region’s inflation rate fuel arguments that the European Central Bank could step-up monetary stimulus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar received support from a stronger than anticipated ADP employment report. The improving outlook for the labor market is among the Federal Reserves’s reasons to raise interest rates.

The pound sterling took a brief look above 1.5210 but was not able to maintain that level and headed for a test of 1.5110. As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, the level around 1.5110 – 1.5090 may lend a support for the currency pair. We will wait and see.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. PMI Manufacturing report, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. If data surprises to the upside, GBP could gain ground.

Furthermore, we will watch the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing index, due at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fasten your seatbelt for another volatile week

Dear Traders,

The recent trading days have been very profitable for traders due to high volatility amid concern over China and global uncertainty. Given this week’s major risk events, volatility is likely to persist, providing traders new chances for some profitable moves.

While the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve should determine the market’s price action, the focus will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. The monthly job report could be a key factor for the Fed’s decision to raise rates in September. If there is a solid job growth with payrolls exceeding 200k and average hourly earnings moving up, the Fed could hike rates on their next FOMC meeting despite global turmoil. Nonetheless, investors have reduced the probability of a Fed move next month.

An important indicator before payrolls are due for release will be the ISM Manufacturing index, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Moreover, ECB president Mario Draghi will present the quarterly economic forecasts at the press conference. Market participants are looking for further easing to be announced before year-end.

It should be an interesting week for traders and regardless of which way the financial markets move, we will try to gain a nice profit in either direction.

The week starts off with important data releases such as Eurozone Consumer Prices at 9:00 GMT.

EUR/USD

We see the euro currently trading between 1.13 and 1.12. If the currency pair is able to break significantly above 1.13, chances are that it heads for a test of 1.14. Below 1.12 we favor a bearish stance but note that the support line could still act as a small hurdle for euro bears.

Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot31.8.15

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co