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Watch Out For Higher Volatility Today

Dear Traders,

As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.

BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.

The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.

From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.

Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.

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U.S. Dollar Mixed After FOMC

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar produced a mixed reaction to the FOMC statement and unfortunately, we were caught on the wrong foot when we tried participating in yesterday’s choppy waters. While the dollar showed some pullback on the initial release of the statement, that rebound proved short-lived with the dollar finishing the trading day cautiously higher against the euro and British pound.

The FOMC announcement didn’t really disappoint dollar bulls with the Fed upgrading its view on inflation, even though not so much on economic growth. The chances of a rate hike next month are at 100 percent while odds for a September and December hike remain unchanged.

Trading the choppy swings yesterday proved unsuccessful for day traders but that’s trading and these days can happen.

The euro faces some event risk today with the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. If CPI data disappoints we might see a drop towards 1.19 in the EUR/USD. Euro bulls, however, should watch out for price breaks above 1.2030.

The British pound dropped to a low of 1.3554 in the aftermath of the FOMC. If the GBP/USD remains below 1.3620 we expect the cable to extend its losses versus the greenback.

From the U.S. we have the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC today.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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GBP/USD: Upswing Toward 1.43 or Drop Below 1.40?

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar has proven to be stable on Tuesday amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Furthermore, the greenback was supported by speculation for an extended Federal Reserve hiking-cycle following hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Elsewhere, San Francisco President John Williams will be the successor to NY President William Dudley. Williams is more hawkish than Dudley.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro but ended the trading day unchanged against the British pound.

As expected in our technical analysis from yesterday, the euro found a current support at 1.2250 from where it corrected some losses. If the euro now drops below 1.2240 we expect further losses towards 1.22. For bullish momentum to gain steam we would need to see a break above 1.2360.

Euro traders will watch the Eurozone Consumer Price Index today at 9:00 UTC, a report which could have an impact on the single currency.

The pound sterling rose towards 1.41 after it refrained from a decline below the rising trendline (see our analysis from Tuesday, April 3). If there is a renewed break below 1.4030 the pound could be vulnerable to further losses towards 1.40 and 1.39. However, as long as the pound remains above 1.40 we favor a bullish stance in the GBP/USD.

From the U.S., we have the ADP report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 14:00 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Falls Victim To Failure To Reach Brexit Agreement

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was absolutely none of our favorite trading days as we had to struggle with volatile but choppy swings in the GBP/USD after U.K. Prime Minister May and European Commission President Juncker failed to reach an agreement on Brexit negotiations due to divisions over Ireland. The pound’s performance was disastrous for breakout trades as the pound failed to determine a directional bias, trading choppily sideways between 1.3540 and 1.3410. The pound sterling remains very sensitive to new Brexit headlines and as we enter the final phase of the year when liquidity typically dries out, we must prepare for unexpected price swings and heightened volatility despite low liquidity.

The euro ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback and our short entry has unfortunately proved unsuccessful after bearish momentum faded. We will now focus on a break either above 1.1930 or below 1.1835.

Traders of the GBP/USD should better wait for price breakouts above 1.3565 (bullish) or below 1.3380 (bearish).

Important economic data today:

9:30 UK PMI Report

15:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing

(Time zone UTC)

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Dollar Directionless Despite Strong U.S. Data

Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday despite the unexpected strength of the ISM Non-Manufacturing data. The jump in the ISM services index is an argument in favor of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. While this should actually be positive for the greenback, we saw EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading sideways.

GBP/USD

Bearish momentum is not fading and it seems as if the pair tends to test the lower support zone at 1.32-1.3150 before starting a potential reversal. Based on the current downtrend channel we expect a short-term resistance to come in at around 1.33. Above 1.3315, a next target could be at 1.3350.

Looking at the economic calendar, the only interesting piece of data will be the ECB minutes due for release at 11:30 UTC. Investors brace for monetary policy changes at the European Central bank and expect such decisions to be made at the next ECB meeting on October 26. Speculation about monetary policy tightening at the ECB have a generally positive influence on the euro.

If the euro climbs back above 1.1810 and further 1.1835 it could be headed for a test of 1.19. On the bottom side, the focus remains on a break below 1.1680 and further 1.1660.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Market Is Running Out Of Steam; Focus Now On ISM And NFP Data

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes have turned out to be a non-event for traders and failed to lift the U.S. dollar. While the Federal Reserve referenced the hawkish shift in its QE plans, the FOMC was split on the timing for their balance sheet reduction. Moreover, there were some inflation concerns in the statement while Fed officials continued to view gradual interest rate increases as appropriate. With the mixed tone from the minutes, the market’s reaction was muted.

The U.S. dollar neither declined significantly nor did it recover following the minutes. We hope for better trading opportunities today with the ISM service sector and private ADP report scheduled for release. While most attention will be paid to tomorrow’s NFP data, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, due at 14:00 UTC could spark some volatile movements ahead of the U.S. Labor report. Before, the ADP employment change report is due for release at 12:15 UTC.

EUR/USD

Recent downward trend channel is still intact within an overall uptrend. The euro was recently confined to a narrow trading range between 1.1370 and 1.1310. With the pair remaining below 1.1350 we expect it to follow the downward channel towards 1.1285. If the euro breaks however above 1.1360 we could see another leg upwards, pointing towards 1.15.

The performance of the GBP/USD was muted with the pair trading more or less sideways between 1.2950 and 1.2890. We will keep an eye on prices either above 1.2960 or below 1.2890.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Remains Bid, Fed Speak Reaffirms Rate Hike Expectations

Dear Traders,

Apart from a loss-making cable, there was not much going on in the markets on Thursday. Dollar bulls remained active, sending the greenback higher against its major counter parts but trading the GBP/USD has proved unsuccessful. The pound sterling refrained from trading any lower than 1.2240 and tagged a fresh support at 1.2258. We will now wait for a sustained break below 1.2230, possibly pushing the pound for a test of 1.22. On the upside we expect a short-term resistance at 1.2330/50.  The U.K. Services PMI report is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC, but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the pound.

The EUR/USD traded slightly lower, dipping below 1.05. For the euro to fall towards lower targets the pair will need to break below 1.0485. As long as the euro remains firmly above 1.05 we could see some pullback towards 1.0540/50.

Market participants will listen to Fed speak from Janet Yellen who is expected to reaffirm the case for tightening at the next FOMC meeting in two weeks. Yellen gives an address on the economic outlook in Chicago today at 18:00 UTC.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC and could also have a minor impact on the greenback.

We generally expect further dollar strength in the coming days, even though we may see some corrective movements in both major currency pairs.

Have a good weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Drops On Prospects Of EU Instability

Dear Traders,

Italy votes ‘No’ and the euro falls. The single currency dropped more than 1% against the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister Matteo Renzi‘s program of constitutional reform was rejected by Italian voters by a clear majority in Sunday’s referendum. Renzi said he will hand in his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella on Monday and while there are fears the vote could further shake up Europe’s financial stability, investors are selling the euro and Italy’s bonds as they see Italy as the biggest risk to the future of the eurozone. Markets now assess the risk of early elections and if they happen, the eurosceptic Five-Star Movement could campaign on a promise to hold a referendum on Italy’s membership in the euro.

While a ‘No’ vote was already priced into Italy’s government bonds the most immediate concern is a potential banking crisis and the risk of contagion around Europe. So all in all, short-term prospects for the euro appear to be somewhat gloomy so let’s take a brief look at the technical picture.

EUR/USD

In an initial reaction to Renzi’s defeat, the euro dropped towards 1.05 but it was able to stabilize around 1.0560. If it falls again below 1.0530 we see a higher likelihood of further losses towards the descending trend line which is currently at 1.0470/60. Below 1.0460 however, the dollar rally could accelerate with the euro heading towards parity. For the euro to gain some ground it might need to stabilize above 1.0585 and then head back towards the 1.0660-resistance.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot5-12-16

Austria‘s presidential vote was however received with relief after Alexander Van der Bellen defeated Norbert Hofer, sending “a signal of hope and positive change throughout Europe”. The Austrian vote was seen as a victory over the populist sentiment in Europe.

The focus now shifts to the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and while a period of political uncertainty might follow after Renzi’s defeat, the ECB could announce even more aggressive measures to support the European economy.

From the U.S. we do not have any market-moving economic reports scheduled for release this week. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is due for release today at 15:00 UTC but given the fact that NFP numbers have been released before the report, it should be of less importance.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro On A Rollercoaster While Pound Continues To Weaken

Dear Traders,

The broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar drove the activities in the currency market and allowed for adequate profits for sterling and euro bears. The British pound was hit hard by Brexit concerns on the one hand and dollar strength on the other. As a result, the cable fell to a 31-year low against the greenback and traders prepare for further losses in the GBP/USD. While the pound is expected to depreciate further ahead of Britain’s planned exit from the EU, investors believe that a weaker currency will help to boost British exports, making larger U.K. companies more competitive.

Technically, we expect the 1.27-level to lend a short-term support to the pound before we may see further losses. In case that the 1.27-mark withstands the downward pressure, we anticipate a correction toward the 1.28-level.

The euro was accompanied by higher volatility on Tuesday and losses in the EUR/USD were soon erased after a report said that the European Central Bank will probably taper bond purchases before the conclusion of quantitative easing. The euro overreacted on that hawkish statement and jumped towards 1.1250. Nevertheless, the technical picture has not changed materially as the euro is still confined to its tight trading range between 1.1240 and 1.1140. Above 1.1240 we may see a renewed test of 1.1270 while a current support is still seen around the 1.1130-level.

Today, we have some interesting economic data scheduled for release, influencing the price development of both major currency pairs:

8:30 UK Services PMI

9:00 EUR Euro-zone Retail Sales

12:15 USA ADP Employment Change

14:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

(Time Zone UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sterling Traders Focus On Carney’s Testimony

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slumped against the euro and British pound after the U.S. services sector index unexpectedly dropped to a six-year low, bolstering speculation that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on lower interest rates. The ISM non-manufacturing index expanded at its weakest pace in six years and this decline was reason enough for dollar bulls to give up on their dollar long positions, sending the greenback’s counterparts significantly higher in return.

The euro jumped above 1.12 and currently attempts to sustainably overcome the next resistance level at 1.1250. Above 1.1270 it could head for a test of 1.13 and 1.1330. In the case of further dollar weakness we see a next crucial resistance zone around the 1.1360-level. Euro bears should however wait for prices below 1.1220 in order to sell the euro.

The pound sterling extended its gains and rose above 1.34. Whether there is still some more upside room remains to be seen and could hinge on today’s U.K. data and a testimony of Bank of England Governor Carney. The BoE governor will answer to a panel of lawmakers and questions will also center on the August Inflation report, in which officials lowered their growth forecasts by the most ever. The testimony is scheduled for 13:15 UTC today and could have a major impact on the pound as it will be scrutinized for clues about the U.K. outlook and the possibility of a further rate cut by the end of the year.

U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing production figures are scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC.

Last but not least, the Fed releases its Beige Book at 18:00 UTC which could have a minor impact on the dollar.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co