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U.S. Job Report To Take Center Stage

Welcome to a new trading week which promises heightened market volatility, driven by high-impact risk events such as the European Central Bank decision, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress and the all-important U.S. payrolls.

Fed’s Powell will appear before Congress both on Wednesday and Thursday for his semiannual testimony. Traders will look for further insights into policymakers’ current thinking, the economic outlook and thus, the timing of rate cuts.

Also on Thursday the ECB will take the stage but no changes are expected. Recent weak European data could lead ECB policymakers to adopt a more dovish tone which would increase pressure on the euro. The longer the ECB waits to cut rates, the more painful the downturn might be, which is why a patient approach could force the central bank to cut rates even deeper later on.

The main event this week, however, will be the U.S. jobs report on Friday. Market participants expect another round of solid jobs numbers. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could delay the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. This would be positive for the U.S. dollar.

 

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

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Profitable Trading Day

What a trading day!

Market participants rushed to reprice Federal Reserve rate hike expectations after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkishness strengthened the U.S. dollar which rose to fresh highs against its counterparts. Powell stated the ultimate rate peak is likely to higher than expected and the Fed is ready to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. This was enough for traders to go short in the euro, cable and DAX, providing us a very good profit yesterday.

Generally speaking, the dollar looks to gain further now.

GBP/USD

The British pound looks primed for a next leg down as it attempts to break below 1.18-support. The strong bearish candle in the cable’s daily chart suggests similar.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Daily Forex And DAX Signals 23/6/22

The tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at yesterday’s testimony was consistent with his hawkish comments at the last FOMC press conference. Powell warned however that it will be “very challenging” to foster a soft-landing for the economy even if the U.S. economy is very strong to handle tighter monetary policy. While the recession risk has clearly risen, traders continue to price the prospects of a hard-landing next year. The U.S. dollar slightly weakened against its counterparts on recession fears.

EUR/USD – Chances in favor of the bulls?

We see an ascending triangle in the daily chart which may predict upcoming bullish momentum as soon as the euro breaks above 1.0610. While a next hurdle is seen at 1.0650, bulls may push for a test of the 1.08-area. However, in case the pair falls back below 1.05, chances increase in favor of the bears.

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals 23/6/22:

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EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0585

Short @ 1.0525

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2275

Short @ 1.2230 Trade hit TP

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13170

Short @ 13090 Trade hit TP100

 

Monthly results 2022:

May 2022: +172 pips

April 2022: +111 pips

March 2022: +689 pips

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Powell Testimony And Daily Signals 22/6/22

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to reinforce the commitment to fight inflation when he appears before Congress today at 13:30 UTC. Any hawkish remarks will be bearish for the market.

EUR/USD: We will pay tabs on prices above 1.0670 or below 1.0470. Above 1.0670, a higher target is at 1.0750. Below 1.0470, the focus turns back to a bearish break of 1.0340 with a lower target seen at 1.02.

GBP/USD: Currently we are looking at a trading range between 1.2450 and 1.1950. The bias remains however bearish as long as the pair trades below 1.24.

DAX: Bearish bias below 13500 with a lower target at 12440. The sentiment will change in favor of the bulls if the 14000-hurdle is cleared to the upside.

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0530

Short @ 1.0485

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2260

Short @ 1.2210 Trade has hit profit target

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13110

Short @ 13060

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Powell Testimony In Focus

Welcome to a new trading week after the challenging last one which has cost us some feathers. Many trades have failed to deliver the desired results. However, this week is not such an event-loaden one, which is why we might see more muted trading conditions.

As recessionary fears ebb and flow so too will the U.S. dollar, given its safe-haven status. The greenback’s major focus this week will be the testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. If Powell firms up already strong expectations for further monetary policy tightening, sacrificing economic growth, the dollar could rise.

GBP/USD

Traders will eye U.K. inflation figures due on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to show another increase, intensifying hawkish pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates by 50bp in August.

The outlook for the pound sterling remains bearish despite its short-term relief rally. A higher resistance is expected to come in at around 1.25 (green ellipse). The sentiment will only change from bearish to bullish in case of a clear break above 1.27. Current supports are seen at 1.2150 and 1.20.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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The Future Is Uncertain

What is certain is that the future is uncertain at this moment with the Ukraine-Russia crisis deteriorating. Investors fear that the crisis will get worse before it gets better with the result of a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 15:00 UTC before the House and Senate panel. Traders are waiting for hints of a potential half percentage-point rate hike this month. If Powell acknowledges the risks created by the conflict and signals on high inflation, the dollar will rise.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1080, the euro may drop towards 1.10. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.12-1.1250.

GBP/USD: Below 1.3240 we will focus on a next target at 1.3175. Below 1.3170, our next lower target will be 1.30. A short-term resistance is seen at 1.3550.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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No Big Movements As Powell Reiterates Dovish Stance

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday that it was still too soon to scale back asset purchases while acknowledging that recent inflation readings had been “higher than expected”. On the other hand, he said that if high inflation persisted “we would absolutely change our policy as appropriate”.

In short, Powell reiterated his dovish stance and signaled that the Fed will be patient in tightening monetary stimulus since ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ‘ways off’.

The U.S. dollar slightly weakened after Powell’s speech but there were no significant market movements.

Powell will face more questions from the Senate banking panel today.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but will adjust risk exposure even in the month of July.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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U.S. Dollar Jumps On Surprise CPI Data

U.S. dollar bulls rushed in after the surprise U.S. inflation jump, showing the highest inflation since 2008, stirred the debate on how long the Federal Reserve can keep monetary policy ultra-loose. The CPI report topped all forecasts and traders saw the data as putting more pressure on the Fed. The greenback advanced sharply, pushing EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards lower targets.

Traders will now be scrutinizing the testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell tomorrow.

EUR/USD

Dollar bulls have pushed the pair lower towards the descending trendline at around 1.1750, the lower barrier of a current downtrend channel. Whether this channel holds, remains to be seen. Falling below 1.1740 could increase bearish momentum towards 1.17 and 1.16. A current resistance is however seen at around 1.19.

DAX: There was nothing to gain for day traders on Tuesday as momentum came to a halt after the index reached a new high slightly above 15800. If the index remains above 15600, we could see an extension of gains towards 15900 and 16000.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but will adjust risk exposure even in the month of July.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Eventful Week For The Greenback

The best performer last Friday was the British pound which headed for a test of 1.39 against the U.S. dollar. Much of the GBP/USD’s recent upward move can be attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar on the back of declining Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and collapsing U.S. Treasury yields.

As for the greenback, this week will be an eventful one with the June U.S. inflation report (Tuesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony (Thursday) being potential catalysts for bigger market movements. There is a risk that market participants may shrug off an even hot inflation report and a corresponding rise in yields since the Fed continues to insists that inflation is largely transitory. This could limit dollar gains even if Tuesday’s inflation report surprises to the upside.

The latest FOMC minutes, on the other side, showed the committee had a lot of questions about how soon labor shortages and supply bottlenecks contributing to inflation would resolve. Chair Jerome Powell may shed more light on the outlook on Thursday when he appears before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The hearing is scheduled to start at 9:30 a.m. in Washington.

GBP/USD

The cable’s rebound was limited to a high of 1.3910 and we will wait for a break above 1.3920 in order to expect a test of 1.3940-50 and maybe even a run for the crucial resistance at 1.40. For bearish momentum to gain traction, we would need to see a renewed break below 1.3760 on the downside or a test of 1.40 on the upside.

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded towards 1.19 after the 1.1780-level proved to hold. We now pay attention to an upside break of 1.1910 which could spur bullish momentum towards 1.1970. On the downside, the 1.18-level could serve as a current support but if it breaks, we see a next target at around 1.1760.

Looking ahead to the next week, the European Central Bank decision on July 22, which was previously expected to be relatively uneventful amid the summer markets, will now have “some interesting variations and changes”. “It’s going to be an important meeting” and investors should prepare for new guidance in 10 days, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Television in Venice on Sunday. So, there might be some volatility in store for euro traders next week.

DAX

The index refrained from a fall below 15300 and thus extended the lower bound of its previous sideways trading range to 15300. A break below the ascending trendline at 15350 could however result in a break of the sideways range with a next lower target seen at 15100. Bulls will keep an eye on an upside break of 15800.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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U.S. Dollar Extends Decline On Powell Remarks

The U.S. dollar extended its recent decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty around increasing inflation risks at yesterday’s hearing. While Fed policy makers believe that price increases will likely wane, Powell said that inflation overshoots “have been larger than we expected and they may turn out to be more persistent than we expected.” He said the Fed will not raise interest rates preemptively while policy makers “will wait for actual evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.”

The EUR/USD extended its rebound until 1.1950. Above 1.1960 we expect the pair to head for a test of 1.20. A current support is seen at 1.1850.

The GBP/USD refrained from breaking above 1.3965 – at least until this morning. Above 1.3965 we will pay attention to a potential test of 1.40 and maybe even a run for 1.4080. A current support is seen at 1.38.


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If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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