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Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the euro already started to show some bullish price action ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. In our analysis of Thursday we highlighted the chance of a bullish continuation in the EUR/USD and this is precisely what has happened yesterday. The euro was Thursday’s best performer and rose toward 1.1425 on speculation the European Central bank is slowly starting to prepare the market for stimulus tapering.

All eyes now turn to the NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. While the ADP report fell short of expectations, there is a risk that also NFP data miss and this would be poison for the U.S. dollar. The jobs report is expected to show 178K workers in June while wage growth is expected to have strengthened. If the headlines figures exceed expectations we could see the greenback strengthening but we bear in mind that any disappointment will have a greater impact on the market.

As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario but recommend not investing too much – at least ahead of the payrolls report. If you want to know how to trade the payrolls report and how to adjust your money management, sign up for our signal service here.

We wish you profitable trades and a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Inject Momentum To The Sluggish Market?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Overall, yesterday’s trading was not to our liking with the euro remaining confined to its three-week range between 1.0640 – 1.05 and the cable trading choppily in between our daily entry levels. In a nutshell, there was more to lose than to win from an unsteady market environment.

The euro benefited from a positive assessment of the euro-area economy while the ECB’s monetary policy stance has not fundamentally changed. The ECB statement came in as expected while Mario Draghi said downside risks to the euro zone economy were less pronounced. Even if the next change from the ECB will be towards removing accommodation and not adding stimulus, it is still too early for a shift in monetary policy.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.0615 and that was it. The price development remained relatively moderate and major market moves are still lacking. The short-term bias has slightly changed in favor of the bulls but it is the appetite for U.S. dollars that will dictate the price action and thus, traders are eagerly waiting for the March Non-farm Payrolls to determine direction.

The GBP/USD was moving sideways between 1.2195 and 1.2135. Unfortunately, our entries were placed on top and below that sideways trading range. Therefore we have been struggling with false breakouts. U.K. Industrial production is due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report will take a backseat to the highly anticipated NFP report.

Today’s U.S. jobs report is the last top event risk before the Fed meeting next week. A healthy report is widely expected but the expectations are very high. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment, which would carry a higher impact than an upbeat report.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Traders Prepare For Weaker Payrolls – Are They Right?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the dollar is clearly tending toward weakness ahead of the first relevant event of the year. Yesterday’s employment data came in mixed with private-sector payroll growth slowing in December while the non-manufacturing ISM index was in line with expectations. Many market participants expect the December employment figures to be weaker, putting the greenback under further selling pressure in the run up to the report. Even if this assumption is correct, wage growth will take center stage in today’s job report. After disappointing November figures average hourly earnings are expected to tick up to 0.3 percent and it is precisely this or a stronger uptick that is needed to put the dollar back in the bullish track. If, however, all key figures of the report disappoint, the greenback will suffer further losses. Let’s wait and see.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

The euro took a glimpse at the upper side of 1.06 but was not able to hold onto that high level. It will now hinge on the jobs report whether there is still room for further gains toward 1.0650/70. On the downside, traders should keep an eye on the 1.0480-support level. Below 1.0480 we expect the euro to fall back toward the 1.04-mark.

The British pound rose above 1.24 but fell back into its former 1.2350-90-resistance area, which now could prove as a new support for the pound. Below 1.2350 we see a lower bound at around 1.2320. If the pound declines below 1.2270 we expect the bias to shift from bullish to bearish. Above 1.2440, however, we may see a continuation of the upward move, heading for 1.25 and 1.2550. But the price action will depend on the outcome of the payrolls.

We wish you a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Payrolls Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar suffered a significant correction after the ISM Manufacturing index showed an unexpected contraction in August, raising doubts about global growth optimism. The British pound started to rise against the greenback in the wake of an unexpected strong U.K. manufacturing PMI, showing signs of expansion in the U.K. after the Brexit vote. Even though our buy order in the GBP/USD was triggered slightly later due to high slippage around the release time of the U.K. data, we were able to get a piece of the pie and secure some profit.

The euro flirted with the 1.12-level on the back of a weakening dollar and it will be interesting to see whether the euro is able to hold onto its higher price level going into the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. Economists predict job growth will slow to 180k in August from 255k in July. While traders are waiting for the payrolls to determine the direction in the market, there is a risk that the outcome could disappoint the market’s high expectations. However, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios but advise traders to trade the payrolls report with caution.

The U.S. Jobs Report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Sterling traders should also keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI due at 8:30 UTC.

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Can U.S. Payrolls Increase Investor’s Appetite For Risk?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Thursday was again a trading day without any profitable movements in the EUR/USD. Our short-entry has proven unsuccessful as the euro found a short-term support at 1.1050. We now focus on an upside break above 1.1120 for bullish and vice versa, below 1.1025 for bearish engagements. Unlike the euro, the cable fluctuated within larger ranges, marking a current trading range between 1.3050 and 1.2875. As we generally expect further losses in the pound, a break below 1.2875 will be the most closely watched scenario in the near-term.

All eyes will be on today’s U.S. jobs report with market participants wanting to see if the disappointing May Non-Farm Payrolls were an aberration or a signal that the U.S. economy lost momentum. The payrolls report is expected to show a job growth of 180,000 workers, confirming that last month’s drop was a temporary thing. If data disappoints, however, the U.S. dollar could be vulnerable to losses, sending the euro and pound higher in return. In general terms, the dollar’s performance will hinge on investor’s risk appetite.

The June Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. On every payrolls day we remind traders that this is a high risk event which should be traded with caution. In phases of extreme high volatility, pending orders can be triggered and stopped out within seconds, which is why we recommend waiting until payroll figures are released before entering the market.

EUR/USD

As long as the euro trades below 1.11, the bias remains slightly bearish. Provided that the short-term downward channel remains intact, we will focus on a break below 1.1050 and 1.1020, which could send the euro towards 1.0970 and 1.0850. The descending triangle becomes void as soon as the euro climbs above 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.7.16

 

 

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Jobs Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro traded lower ahead of today’s highly anticipated U.S. jobs report, which may shed light on U.S. growth and whether the economy is strong enough for higher interest rates. The payrolls report is forecast to show a 200k jobs-increase for April but it would require an upside surprise in the headline figures of the report. We can speak of a strong jobs report if the unemployment rate shows a decline, average hourly earnings are on the rise and payrolls growth exceeds at least 220k. If there will be no upside surprise, supporting the case for tighter monetary policy in the near-term, the dollar could give up some of its recent gains.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD

It all depends on today’s key employment data, but from a technical perspective traders should focus on the overall picture. In the medium-term the euro is still trading within an upward-channel. Given the recent downward move we will now focus on the lower bound of that channel which is currently around 1.1360/40. If the euro breaks below 1.1335 we see chances of further losses towards 1.12 and 1.1150. If, on the other hand, the euro is able to climb again above 1.15 and farther 1.1530, it could even head for a test of 1.1630. However, if NFP data fails to impress, the EUR/USD could remain confined to a trading range between 1.15 and 1.1350.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot6.5.16

The British pound, however, refrained from trading lower than 1.4443. After a break below 1.4440, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses and we will shift our focus to lower targets at 1.4330. A current resistance is seen at 1.4520.

We wish all traders a profitable trading day but bear in mind that the trading on payrolls day is highly risky and is therefore not for the faint-hearted. Personally, we will not invest our weekly profits and take it easy today.

Have a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co