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U.S. Dollars Recovers On Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some strength following a slew of hawkish Fed rhetoric. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated in a town hall meeting that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. She was optimistic on the labor market and inflation and wage growth, saying that inflation is close to the Fed’s 2 percent goal.

These hawkish remarks helped the greenback to recover from its recent lows. The euro peaked at 1.0684 before falling back toward the 1.06-support level. Below 1.0570 we may see further losses towards 1.0480.

The British pound took a brief glimpse above 1.23 but was not able to stabilize above that high level. The 1.21-level will now be back in focus and if the pound drops below that mark, we expect a next lower target to be at 1.20. The beginning of next week is going to be interesting for sterling traders as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will set out her Brexit vision in a speech on Tuesday. Recent speculation about a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ has increased the pressure on the pound.

Today we will watch important economic data releases such as U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC and University of Michigan Confidence due at 15:00 UTC. The Retail Sales report is expected to show an uptick in December and should this be confirmed, the dollar could recover even more quickly.

Have a nice weekend.

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Market Remained Unimpressed By FOMC Statement

Dear Traders,

The market reaction to the FOMC statement was muted with the U.S. dollar ending the trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound. While the Fed minutes confirmed that the central bank is moving toward tightening it also shows continuing disagreement among policy makers. Last month’s decision to hold interest rates at their current level was a close call with three FOMC members dissenting for a rate rise, the minutes showed. Market participants expect the Fed to move in December and while the market is pricing in the probability of year-end hike, the Fed may consider that move to be inevitable to preserve the central bank’s credibility.

Overall, the dollar remains bid on corrections and investors will be looking for dollar dips to buy the currency and participate on the dollar rally. Consequently, we expect further dollar gains in the medium-term but we will pay attention to potential pullbacks in the short-term.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today so trading could be quiet.

Here is where we see current resistance and support levels for both currency pairs:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.1050/60

1.11

 

1.10

1.0970

 

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2230

1.2320

1.2150

1.21

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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U.S. Dollar Gains Momentum But Watch Out For Potential Corrections

Dear Traders,

Despite the lack of market moving economic data on Monday the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the euro and British pound. Short traders, therefore, continue to profit but we should remain vigilant as to potential corrections in both major currency pairs.

EUR/USD

The euro trades under pressure and is currently hovering around the 1.11-mark. Short-traders are already preparing for a break of that crucial support level. Below 1.1090 we see next support levels at 1.1050 and 1.10 while on the upside, potential pullbacks could be limited until 1.12. Only a break above 1.1250 would change the bias in favor of the bulls.

chart_eur_usd_daily_snapshot11-10-16

The Eurozone ZEW Survey is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC today but whether this report will have a significant impact on the euro remains to be seen.

The pound sterling tested its new support at 1.23. A renewed break below that level may send the pound tumbling towards 1.22 whereas any pullbacks might be currently limited until 1.2350/70. Above 1.24 however, we anticipate that the market will gain some bullish momentum towards 1.25.

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Risk-Off Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Number

Dear Traders,

There is not much news to report in the Forex market on Wednesday with both of our major currency pairs moving sideways. Despite stronger than-expected U.S. economic data, the dollar ended the day unchanged against the euro and British pound.

The euro continued to trade sideways within a tight price range of merely 50 pips. None of our entries was triggered yesterday and we will have to wait for price breakouts above 1.1270 or vice versa, below 1.1120.

The pound sterling took a breather and traded consolidated. As long as it remains firmly above 1.27 we shift our focus to the 1.2775-resistance which needs to be breached on the upside in order to invigorate bullish momentum. Below 1.2680 however, we expect the pound to extend its losses towards 1.2640.

Today we get Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC ahead of tomorrow’s big payrolls number, but we don’t expect this report to spark any major movement before the highly anticipated U.S. jobs data release.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Dull Market Allows Only Small Movements

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was another quiet trading day in the summer markets. The euro’s upward movement towards 1.12 provided bullish traders a small profit, whereas the cable lacked direction and traded sideways roughly between 1.31 and 1.30. Sterling traders should now wait for a sustained break above 1.31 to buy or, respectively, a break below 1.2990 and 1.2950 to sell pounds.

The euro flirted with the 1.12-level but proved unable to overcome the recent resistance level at 1.1190. Euro bulls would need to push the currency pair above 1.1220 in order to increase the chances of further upside momentum towards 1.1250 and 1.13.

Summer holiday break: August 12 – August 31 

During this period we will not provide our daily signal service. The signal service will be resumed on September 1.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Currency Pairs Trade Almost Motionless

Dear Traders,

The currency market was fairly quiet or rather motionless on Monday. While the euro hovered around the 1.1170-mark, the British pound traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar. Given the fact that the market is short the pound on speculation the Bank of England will ease monetary policy on Thursday, the risk is clearly to the downside. We will pay attention to a break of 1.3150 and 1.3060 in order to sell sterling towards lower levels. Upward movements however, could be limited to 1.3340 and 1.3440.

The only piece of second-tier economic data will be the U.K. Construction PMI scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. From the U.S. we only have Personal Income and Spending figures scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC alongside the PCE report. These reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the currencies.

As there will be no market movers today, the consolidation phase may continue to dominate the markets. We therefore do not expect any major movements and recommend taking smaller profits if there are any.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Summer Months

Dear Traders,

It was a quiet start to the new week with both major currency pair fluctuating within narrow trading ranges. Generally, the summer months of July and August are traditionally the quietest time of the year in the financial markets. Hence it is not unusual that the market is sluggish. Given these moderate market conditions we advise traders to take profits even at smaller targets as the market may fail to generate major moves and do not invest too much during the summer period.

The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar after figures showed the German Ifo index fell less than expected in July. However, the euro was not able to break through the 1.10-hurdle and remained in a sideways movement. Once it climbs above 1.10, we expect the 1.1025/30-level to act as a resistance for the currency pair. Today’s price action will hinge on the appetite for dollars as the focus will be on important U.S. data such as Consumer Confidence due for release at 14:00 UTC.

The cable traded sideways between 1.3165 and 1.3080. We will now focus on a break below 1.3070 in order to sell sterling toward lower levels. On the upside gains might be capped at 1.32.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Upward Movement To Be On Shaky Foundations?

Dear Traders,

While we actually got the breakouts what we have been looking for, the market’s fluctuations proved to be limited to either side Monday. Sterling traders were able to pocket some profits with both long and short-entries whereas euro traders still struggle with the euro’s poor performance. The EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.1075 and 1.1015 and neither our sell attempt nor a later buy order provided a sustained profit. Consequently, euro traders will need some more patience and wait until market conditions improve.

The pound sterling climbed towards 1.31 as the leadership certainty in the U.K. provided some relief for the currency. Theresa May will be appointed as Britain’s next prime minister and even though May will have to resist pressure to rush into the Brexit negotiations, Britain’s second female prime minister is not seen in a hurry to trigger Article 50, the formal start of an EU exit.

In the meantime, it is going to be a big week for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who faces the U.K. parliament’s Treasury Select Committee today at 10:00 UTC, ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision. Economists expect the BoE to cut rates by 25 basis points, which would be the first rate cut since 2009. With this in mind sterling is expected to remain under pressure ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision.

Furthermore, two Fed officials are scheduled to speak today around 14:00 UTC, which could influence the dollar’s performance as long as they maintain a hawkish stance.

The euro rose towards 1.11 but the technical picture has not changed significantly. Long-term swing entries are available for subscribers.

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Brexit Debate Enters Hot Phase

Dear Traders,

The British pound extended its gains towards 1.48 while the euro went into a tailspin Tuesday. Sterling benefited from reduced chances of a so-called Brexit, even if Thursday’s U.K. referendum is not a foregone conclusion. We expect the pound to be highly volatile on the last day before the vote and we will not elaborate on the technical picture today as anything is possible.

The euro dropped towards 1.1235 after it rejected the 1.1350 level. In short-term timeframes we expect the 1.1310-level to act as a resistance for the euro, whereas a lower bound could be currently found at 1.1222/1.12. Above 1.1360 the euro could climb towards 1.1395 and 1.1435. Below 1.1220 we will favor a bearish stance, targeting lower levels at 1.1185 and 1.1135.

Fed chair Yellen adopted a cautious approach to the outlook and the appropriate pace of interest rate hikes in yesterday’s testimony before lawmakers in Washington. She highlighted concerns about longer-term problems in the U.S. economy, adding to signs that the Fed may go for only one hike this year. Yellen is due to address lawmakers for a second day today at 14:00 UTC, while at the same time U.S. Existing Home Sales are scheduled for release.

The Brexit debate is entering the hot phase and traders should prepare for higher volatility ahead of tomorrow’s vote. Whatever the outcome may be, we wait to be surprised and try to get the best out of the market’s movements.

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Price Action Continues To Be Muted But Watch Out For A GBP/USD-Breakout

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar failed to trade sustainably higher against the euro and British pound Thursday. While dollar bulls may have hoped for stronger U.S. data to reaffirm the dollar’s strength, expectations have been disappointed – at least yesterday. The Philadelphia Fed index came in softer than expected and thus failed to encourage dollar bulls to push the currency higher. With the Fed’s willingness to raise rates as early as June, the main focus will be on the May Non-Farm Payrolls report due to be released on June 3. The currency market is generally looking to further dollar strength and if incoming U.S. data is surprising on the upside it could be a catalyst for some downside breakouts in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

U.S. Existing Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC but this report is unlikely to trigger significant movements.

The British pound initially rose as high as 1.4663 as the price action was boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. retail sales. However, sterling was unable to hold onto its gains and ended the day unchanged against the greenback. We now see a higher likelihood of an upcoming breakout of the cable’s recent narrow trading range. We will therefore focus on prices above 1.4620 for any bullish and vice versa on prices below 1.4590 for any bearish engagements. Given the recent uptrend channel higher targets could be at 1.4695 whereas a support could be at 1.4490.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot20.5.16

The price action in the EUR/USD was muted and the currency pair fluctuated within a narrow trading range of 50 pips. Traders should wait for an upside break above 1.1230 or vice versa, a downside break below 1.1180. Above 1.1230, higher targets could be at 1.1260 and 1.1290, whereas below 1.1180, the euro could fall towards 1.1130.

We wish good trades and a wonderful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co