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Will NFP Help Or Hurt U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Thursday was the rise of the euro which has surged to a high of 1.0987. The euro is currently supported by expectations of a Macron win in the final round of French elections this Sunday. While we bear in mind that if Le Pen surprises on Sunday, the market’s reaction would be far greater, the most likely scenario is however a victory of the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Macron. Markets are therefore unlikely to budge much if Macron wins.

Apart from the French election, great attention will be paid to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which appears to be the market-moving event for this week. The U.S. Jobs report is forecast to show a job growth of 190K jobs last month but the focus will also be on Average Hourly earnings. A large miss in this key figure or a disappointment in payrolls growth may raise doubts about a Fed June rate hike. In other words, a disappointment would have a greater impact on the market than a strong report. In case of a weaker jobs report the U.S. dollar could come under strong selling pressure.

The NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

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Euro Steady Ahead Of French Elections – The Calm Before The Storm?

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Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after the euro had risen to a high of 1.0777 whereas the cable had rejected the 1.2850-resistance. The limited upward movement was due to a slight increase in the dollar after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spread optimism that the Trump administration is close to bringing forward major tax reform. He said the White House will unveil a tax plan “very soon”.

Meanwhile, the euro held steady above 1.07 after a police officer was killed in Paris just days before France’s presidential election starts. The incident could have an impact on the outcome of the first round of the election on Sunday since the Islamic State is claiming responsibility for the attack.

Polling is suggesting it will be a close call between independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. The two leading candidates will run off in a winner-takes-all contest on May 7.

EUR/USD- The calm before the storm?

The euro performed quite resiliently ahead of the most tightly contested elections in France.

On a technical basis, we will focus on a current trading range between 1.0740 and 1.0680. A renewed break above 1.0740 may boost bullish momentum until a fresh high at 1.08. We would speak of a bullish breakout in case the euro climbs above 1.0820. A higher target could be at 1.0950. However, below 1.0680/70 we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.0640 and 1.06. A break below 1.0590 could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

The British pound was unable to take the hurdle at 1.2850 and dropped back below 1.28. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading between 1.2860 and 1.2770 we do not pay much attention to the cable’s price action. A break below 1.2770 would shift the focus to lower targets near 1.27 and 1.26 whereas it would need a sustained break above 1.2860 to spark bullish momentum towards 1.2950.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and will draw traders’ attention.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Drops On Fears The EU Could Collapse

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Dear Traders,

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar after investors have been reminded that the French election is one of the biggest risks this year with the prospect of a victory of Marine Le Pen fueling concern that the European Union will collapse. France’s far-right leader Le Pen unveiled a manifesto pledge on Monday in which she said that she would take the country out of the EU should she win. Within this climate of increasing anti-globalism there is not much that is positive and currencies become victims of these policies. The euro fell towards 1.07 and we will now wait for a sustained break below that support-level. If the euro falls below 1.0680 we expect further losses towards 1.0620. On the upside we see a current resistance around 1.0780.

The British pound’s downward movement came to a short-term halt near 1.2425. We are anticipating further losses in the cable and thus focus on a significant break below 1.24. A short-term resistance is however seen around 1.2550.

With no major economic data on the docket, the price action will be determined by political developments and global risk appetite.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co