Posts

What’s Next After The Latest Round Of U.S. Dollar Strength?

Friday’s U.S. NFP release showed the U.S. jobs market in good health with 353k new jobs created in January compared to expectations of only 180k. Following these healthy job numbers, traders pushed back on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations while a March rate cut is currently off the table.

The U.S. dollar strengthened strongly in response to Friday’s NFP report and provided short traders in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD some good gains.

Compared to last week, the economic calendar this week is light in terms of potential market-moving data and risk events. Traders should thus prepare for range-bound trades and smaller profits.

The EUR/USD slipped below 1.0790 and further towards 1.0760 but we expect that a short-term support is coming in at around 1.0750, which is why bulls could go for a test of the area around 1.0860. Falling below 1.0740, on the other side, could lead to a sell-off towards 1.0660.

The GBP/USD remained within its sideways range between 1.28 and 1.26. Looking for short entries, we will wait for price breaks below 1.2590 with a lower target at around 1.2560 and further for a fall below 1.2540 with a next target at 1.25. On the topside, a resistance is currently seen at 1.2750.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

Busy Week Ahead

We entered the last week of January which is traditionally very busy and this year is no different with a packed economic calendar of key central bank decisions and big data releases.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday will be the highlight in the days ahead and while market participants remain convinced that a dovish pivot is drawing closer, prominent Fed managers warned that expectations around future rate cuts were too optimistic and that the Fed does not intend to cut rates as quickly as the markets expect. With no change in monetary policy and no dot plot release this week, traders will be looking for fresh hints on the timing of the first rate cut by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his press conference. If Powell leaves the door open to a possible rate cut in the first half of the year, the U.S. dollar could weaken.

Furthermore, the greenback’s direction will also hinge on the latest U.S. jobs numbers which will be release on Friday. The jobs market is forecast to have cooled in January. An upside surprise in the payrolls report would diminish hopes for an early rate cut and the dollar could thus experience a short squeeze.

On Thursday, the Bank of England meets to set its monetary policy. Like the ECB and Fed, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged. There are no expectations for any rate cuts soon, but the BoE may make its first dovish tilt in its February meeting, a move that would be negative for the pound.

The overall price development remained very sluggish for traders and even a better-than-expected U.S. Core PCE report from last Friday could not really boost the U.S. dollar. However, the tight ranges are likely to be tested due to an anticipated lift in volatility in the days ahead.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Relief Rally

The euro and British pound dipped towards lower targets before we saw some kind of relief rally yesterday. The EUR/USD tested the 1.0450-support area before it climbed back above 1.05. From a technical perspective, more bullish momentum could be in store now with next targets seen at 1.0550 and 1.0650.

A mix of better-than-expected U.K. data and weaker-than-expected U.S. data helped the British pound to move back above 1.2150. Above 1.2170 we see a next higher target at around 1.2250.

DAX

The index slid to 14950 before it stabilized somewhat around 15150. If the DAX can hold above 15100, it could possible test the 15400-region as a resistance.

The next driver for the currencies will be tomorrow’s U.S. NFP report, so volatility could be muted ahead of that event.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Low Volatility

Happy Pentecost everyone!

In terms of a U.S. debt deal, traders will focus on how talks progress as the June 5 deadline approaches. Meanwhile, stronger than-expected U.S. inflation led to a repricing in rate hike expectations, bringing back the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in June. An anticipated pause in the Fed’s rate hike cycle could thus be a close call.

On Friday we will have the U.S. NFP jobs report scheduled for release. Further signs that the job market is robust will cool rate-cut bets and thus, support the greenback.

DAX: The index holds above its crucial support zone between 15650 and 15700. As long as that zone remains intact, we could imagine another bullish run for 16300.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.08 and 1.06 for the time being.

Markets are shut today for the Pentecost or Memorial Day holiday (U.S.). Volatility could thus be at muted levels.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

NFP Day

It’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls day today and it could be somewhat complicate to predict in which direction the U.S. dollar will head. Should the jobs data come in significantly better than expected, the Fed will most likely stick to its higher terminal rate pledge. If payrolls are modestly weaker than expected, the market may not move much as this is what is already priced in with expectations for a lower peak rate and a 50bp rate hike this month. If jobs figures are sharply worse, recession fears and risk aversion will direct the market’s action.

Subscribers know how we trade the NFP data today due at 13:30 UTC.

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Our trading ideas for today 2/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0560

Short @ 1.0520

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2285

Short @ 1.2190

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14490

Short @ 14420

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Four Major Events

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision. A 75-bp hike is considered a sure thing. Traders are rather looking for hints about plans to ease back from the Fed’s aggressive pace of hikes. Possible signals about a less-hawkish stance would be dollar-negative. However, given the hotter than expected September U.S. inflation report and the strong September nonfarm payrolls, the most likely scenario is continued aggressive policy tightening – at least until the end of 2022.

On Friday, the October U.S. jobs report will provide an important look at the health of the labor market.

On November 8, the U.S. mid-term elections could lead to a change in which party controls Congress. Stock bulls are hoping for a divided Congress, which has historically benefited equities.

On November 10, economists will be watching the consumer price index for signs of a further pullback in order to shape expectations for the Fed’s path. A lower reading could be dollar-negative on the back of increased risk appetite.


After an extended trading break, we have been back at the trading desk for three weeks now and have already been able to make a few profits. From 7 November 2022, we will also be offering our signals service again for all interested traders.

We wish you all good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

NFP Data In Focus

It’s U.S. Nonfarm payrolls day today.

Today’s monthly jobs report is currently forecast to show the US added 265,000 payrolls in June, the fewest jobs in over a year. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.6%, near its lowest level in decades. While June’s small jobs gain might be a natural slowdown, a number of less than 100k jobs would be a concern. However, even if data surprise to the upside, it is unlikely that the NFP report unleashes a long-lasting bullish reaction in the light of growing certainty of a recession.

Payrolls are due for release at 12:30 UTC.

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

Will Payrolls Help Dollar Bulls?

The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested the Fed is ready to raise rates sooner and higher than previously expected. According to hawkish comments of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard the central bank could raise rates as soon as March.

Today is payrolls day and the jobs report is forecast to show that the U.S. added 405,000 jobs in December. An upside surprise could help the greenback strengthening but we will take a cautious approach on payrolls day. Since much of the dollar’s strength is already priced in, traders should brace for price movements in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD: Above 1.1270, chances are in favor of the bulls. A higher target is 1.14. Below 1.1270, the focus turns to a break below 1.1220 and further 1.1185. A lower target is 1.10.

GBP/USD: We pencil in a trading range between 1.3650 and 1.3410.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 3190

Short @ 3090

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

 

Relief Rally After Sell-Off?

Welcome to a new trading week. The demand for riskier assets is taking a hit amid a new surge in covid-19 cases and uncertainty concerning the new omicron strain. Investors fled into save havens as volatility spiked. Early reports from parts of Africa suggest that the strain could be more contagious than previous variants but the impact on health may not be as severe. Investors now wait for more clarity around the consequences of omicron. However, the market got used to trade covid variants and prices touched all-time highs when the fog is clearing. Traders should thus expect the same for omicron.

The U.S. dollar remains in the spotlight this week as the U.S. November NFP report on Friday will likely further fuel expectations of faster Federal Reserve tapering. An upbeat report could keep the dollar rally going.

GBP/USD – Time for a reversal?

From a technical perspective, the pair seems to be ready for a recovery after hitting 1.33 and entering oversold territory. As long as the cable remains above 1.3250 and even better above 1.33, we see chances of a leg up with a first higher target seen at 1.35 followed by 1.36.

 

DAX – Falling like a stone

After last week’s sharp sell-off that sent the DAX tumbling below the 16000-mark, the index only found some halt at the next crucial 15000-mark. Whether that support holds, remains to be seen and depends on investor’s risk-off mood. If 15000 breaks, we see a next support at 14800 followed by 14500. On the upside, a next resistance comes in at 15800.

Have a good week everyone.

 

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4380

Short @ 4330

 

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

Pound Vulnerable to Further Losses After BoE Shock

The Bank of England shocked the market yesterday by keeping interest on hold, disappointing hawkish rate hike bets. The pound dropped almost two percent from our short entry, providing sellers a very good gain. BoE officials voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.1 percent. Defending the BoE’s decision, Governor Andrew Baily said that policy makers will focus on jobs and the risks to economic growth instead of inflation.

Bets on the first 15-bp BoE rate hike are now pushed back to February.

GBP/USD: As traders digest the shock, the pound may be vulnerable to further losses. A next lower target comes in at 1.3415, followed by 1.3330. A lower resistance is currently seen at 1.3650.

All eyes now turn to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report today at 12:30 UTC.

Analysts expect the NFP report to cross the wires at 450k for October. That is more than double the 194k September print. A better-than-expected figure will strengthen the Fed’s basis for more tightening and will benefit the U.S. dollar. Alternatively, a poor print is likely to do the opposite with the greenback vulnerable to losses.

We wish you all a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4560

Short @ 4515

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram