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Further U.S. Dollar Strength Ahead? Waiting For NFP Outcome

Dear Traders,

Bullish exposure seems to be fading ahead of the March U.S. employment report with bears gaining control of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, we are hesitant in our assessment of further dollar strength as we know that payrolls can catch traders on the wrong foot.

While U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed last month, the jobless rate was forecast to have fallen to 4.0 percent amid stronger wage growth. If the latter headline figure meets or even exceeds expectations it might be dollar-positive but traders should be careful. There is plenty of room for a surprise and volatile swings can make today’s trading difficult.

Sign-up for our professional day trading support if you want to know how we trade the NFP report.

The NFP Report is due at 12:30 UTC.

GBP/USD

The worst performing currency was the British pound which dropped below its crucial support at 1.40 and extended its slide towards 1.3965. As mentioned in previous analysis, our focus now shifts to a lower target of 1.3880, provided that the pound remains below 1.4050. A break above 1.4060, however, could encourage sterling bulls for a test of 1.41 but it all depends on the outcome of the payrolls.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped below 1.2235 and this pair seems to be heading towards 1.2190 now. A break below 1.2180 could spark bearish momentum towards 1.2150 and possibly even 1.2050 but that remains to be seen. The 1.23-level could act as a short-term resistance.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Weaker Ahead Of NFPs

Dear Traders,

The best performing currency pair on Thursday was the EUR/USD, which took another glimpse above 1.25 but was yet unable to hold that level. Our yesterday’s long signal has proved profitable while euro bulls lie in wait for a next leg up, targeting at 1.27. The question whether the single currency could be vulnerable to further gains will mainly depend on the demand for dollars following today’s U.S. labor market data.

One reason for the euro’s surge were reports that some ECB policymakers are pushing President Mario Draghi to give investors clearer guidance on when rates might rise. In a nutshell, these rumors confirm that the ECB is comfortable with the euro’s appreciation.

The most prominent event risk on the last trading day of this week will be the January Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 UTC and if payrolls exceed expectations combined with an uptick in wage growth we could see the dollar recovering some of its recent losses. However, traders should bear in mind that given the dollar’s strong downtrend, market participants might be inclined to sell USD at higher levels.

Recently, the release of the monthly NFP report failed to generate extreme volatility in the market, which is why traders now brace for a more muted market reaction. Whatever the case, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

EUR/USD

The current uptrend channel is still intact and after the euro refrained from falling below 1.2385 the chances are in favor of further bullish momentum, driving the pair towards 1.2650 and possibly 1.27.

GBP/USD: There has been no significant correction in the recent performance of the cable with the pair following a clear uptrend. How the cable will trade within the next hours will however depend on the outcome of the payrolls. If the pound finds its way above 1.43 we focus on higher targets at 1.4380 and 1.4450. For bearish momentum to accelerate, the pound would first need to fall below 1.4220 and further 1.4185.

Have a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Will Payrolls Help Or Hurt The Greenback?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day again and today’s U.S. jobs numbers could matter more than usual as investors assess the possibility of a steeper Federal reserve rate hike path in 2018. While the Fed has established a commitment to gradual monetary policy pacing even under the chairmanship of Mr. Powell, job and wage growth will shape the expectations for 2018 tightening. The central bank is expected to endorse a wait-and-see approach in the first half of the next year after a last rate hike in 2017, which is widely expected to be announced on next week’s Fed meeting.

In short, there is a greater risk of disappointment than an upside surprise when coming to the latest job numbers. If job growth comes in below expectations amid slowing wage growth, the dollar will give up its recent gains. If today’s NFP report surprises to the upside, the dollar will continue to rise amid progress on the tax-cut legislation.

Traders around the world will watch the NFP release at 13:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on speculation that Ireland and Britain were close to a Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will have time until Sunday to resolve the deadlocked Brexit talks. The GBP/USD jumped back towards 1.3520 after it found support at 1.3320. With the pound trading above 1.3330 we now expect the pair to head for a test of 1.3630/50.

EUR/USD: The euro further declined against the greenback and appears to be headed for a test of the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. We anticipate a crucial support area between 1.1740 and 1.1710 and if that threshold remains intact we could see some pullback towards 1.1805 and possibly 1.1850.

We wish you profitable trades for today and a cozy and relaxing winter weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Greenback Strengthens Pre-NFP

Dear Traders,

Finally, the U.S. dollar returned to its former strength pre-NFP with also EUR/USD joining the downward trend. The euro gave way to the strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD dropped below 1.17 after gains were capped at 1.1780.

The main topic in the market was however the fall of the British pound which came under severe downward pressure after chaotic U.K. politics put the country’s outlook on very shaky foundations. The pound came under selling pressure after UK Prime Minister Theresa May put in a disastrous performance at the annual conference of her Conservative Party. Her speech was disrupted by prankster and then by a coughing fit. That disastrous speech weakened her position as PM while the idea of replacing May in the middle of Brexit negotiations is widely viewed with horror. A replacement by Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson could make a deal with the EU harder rather than easier to reach.

The GBP/USD fell below important support-levels at 1.3150 and 1.31 and could now be headed towards a test of 1.30.

Today, all eyes will be on the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The U.S. September Employment report is expected to show a weaker reading due to the impact of hurricanes on southern states. Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials reinforced optimism ahead of the jobs report, saying Fed policymakers “pencil in” a rate hike in December and three hikes next year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is currently at 75 percent.

If payrolls beat expectations, the greenback will receive a boost and could further rise against the euro and pound.

If you want to know how we trade the payrolls release sign up for our daily signal service.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

NFP Outcome Will Seal The Dollar’s Fate

Dear Traders,

The BoE’s Super Thursday is behind us and we got what we were looking for: A breakout in GBP/USD. Our forecast of further bearish momentum toward 1.3110 following a break below 1.3190 proved to be correct. Thus, sterling bears were able to pocket a nice gain yesterday. What prompted the pound to decline? The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted 6-2 to keep interest rates unchanged but more importantly, policy makers lowered their economic growth projections to 1.7 from 1.9 percent. Furthermore, the BoE cut its forecast for wage growth for 2018 and 2019. The market was betting on a surprise hawkishness but what it got was some uncertainty when Carney expressed concerns about a “smooth transition to a new economic relationship with the EU”. While he also pointed towards some tightening in the next three years, yesterday’s policy statement was interpreted as negative.

The euro favored the upward movement after correcting towards 1.1830. Based on the recent uptrend we generally expect further gains towards 1.1960 and 1.20. A break below 1.1850 however, could send the euro towards its lower support at 1.18.

The pound now faces a crucial support at around 1.31. A significant break below that barrier may result in further bearish momentum towards 1.30.

All eyes will be on the U.S. employment report scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. Market participants hope that the NFP report will provide clues on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s next policy move. So the U.S. Dollar’s fate will depend on the NFP outcome. Let’s be surprised.

If you want to know how we will trade the payrolls, sign up for our daily signal service here.

We would like to inform all subscribers and readers that we will take a summer trading break until end of August. Our signal service and all daily analysis will be resumed in September.  

We wish you a very enjoyable summer.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Hurt Or Help The U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the euro already started to show some bullish price action ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. In our analysis of Thursday we highlighted the chance of a bullish continuation in the EUR/USD and this is precisely what has happened yesterday. The euro was Thursday’s best performer and rose toward 1.1425 on speculation the European Central bank is slowly starting to prepare the market for stimulus tapering.

All eyes now turn to the NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. While the ADP report fell short of expectations, there is a risk that also NFP data miss and this would be poison for the U.S. dollar. The jobs report is expected to show 178K workers in June while wage growth is expected to have strengthened. If the headlines figures exceed expectations we could see the greenback strengthening but we bear in mind that any disappointment will have a greater impact on the market.

As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario but recommend not investing too much – at least ahead of the payrolls report. If you want to know how to trade the payrolls report and how to adjust your money management, sign up for our signal service here.

We wish you profitable trades and a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

All Eyes On NFP Data

Dear Traders,

It is U.S. jobs day and the May Nonfarm Payrolls report is considered the top event risk this week as it could generate big swings for the U.S. dollar. The greenback’s performance was only modestly affected by yesterday’s solid ADP report and a strong ISM manufacturing report, so traders hope for more profitable swings today. The expectation is for 180K jobs to have been added in May and while a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting on June 13 and 14 is widely expected, investors will read between the lines to assess the economic environment in the U.S. The dollar has been weak throughout the month of May and dollar bulls need a good reason in order to reinvest into the dollar trade.

The first trading day of June has been a challenging one for sterling traders as the cable traded choppily sideways, triggering and eliminating pending orders easily. We hope for more profitable trading opportunities today.

The euro refrained from falling below the 1.12-mark and hold steadily above that threshold. In case of a dip below 1.1190 we will once again shift our focus to the 1.1160-support. Lower barriers are seen at 1.11/1.1080 and 1.10 whereas any upward movements above 1.1265 could be limited to a high of 1.1350.

The Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will NFP Help Or Hurt U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Thursday was the rise of the euro which has surged to a high of 1.0987. The euro is currently supported by expectations of a Macron win in the final round of French elections this Sunday. While we bear in mind that if Le Pen surprises on Sunday, the market’s reaction would be far greater, the most likely scenario is however a victory of the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Macron. Markets are therefore unlikely to budge much if Macron wins.

Apart from the French election, great attention will be paid to the Non-Farm Payrolls report which appears to be the market-moving event for this week. The U.S. Jobs report is forecast to show a job growth of 190K jobs last month but the focus will also be on Average Hourly earnings. A large miss in this key figure or a disappointment in payrolls growth may raise doubts about a Fed June rate hike. In other words, a disappointment would have a greater impact on the market than a strong report. In case of a weaker jobs report the U.S. dollar could come under strong selling pressure.

The NFP report is due at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Payrolls Inject Momentum To The Sluggish Market?

Dear Traders,

Overall, yesterday’s trading was not to our liking with the euro remaining confined to its three-week range between 1.0640 – 1.05 and the cable trading choppily in between our daily entry levels. In a nutshell, there was more to lose than to win from an unsteady market environment.

The euro benefited from a positive assessment of the euro-area economy while the ECB’s monetary policy stance has not fundamentally changed. The ECB statement came in as expected while Mario Draghi said downside risks to the euro zone economy were less pronounced. Even if the next change from the ECB will be towards removing accommodation and not adding stimulus, it is still too early for a shift in monetary policy.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.0615 and that was it. The price development remained relatively moderate and major market moves are still lacking. The short-term bias has slightly changed in favor of the bulls but it is the appetite for U.S. dollars that will dictate the price action and thus, traders are eagerly waiting for the March Non-farm Payrolls to determine direction.

The GBP/USD was moving sideways between 1.2195 and 1.2135. Unfortunately, our entries were placed on top and below that sideways trading range. Therefore we have been struggling with false breakouts. U.K. Industrial production is due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report will take a backseat to the highly anticipated NFP report.

Today’s U.S. jobs report is the last top event risk before the Fed meeting next week. A healthy report is widely expected but the expectations are very high. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment, which would carry a higher impact than an upbeat report.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading

Dear Traders,

The euro’s short-lived break above 1.0630 proved unsuccessful after euro bulls got fooled by the false breakout. It may require another test of that resistance level to finally invigorate further bullish momentum but the price action will also hinge on the appetite for U.S. dollars ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. However, from a technical perspective, nothing has changed and we still wait for prices either above 1.0630/40 or, on the other side, below 1.0490.

The pound sterling depreciated against the U.S. dollar but held steady above its 1.22-support. In short-term time frames, we now wait for a renewed break below 1.2230 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2190.  On the topside we anticipate the 1.2285-level to act as a current resistance. For the pound to rally, it would need to significantly break through the 1.23-level.

There are no major important economic reports scheduled for release today, so trading could be quiet again with market participants remaining risk-averse until the end of the week.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co