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New Month Starts With NFP

We wish all traders a good and successful start into the month of September. We hope that you were able to recover a little during the summer and have recharged your batteries for trading ; )

Let’s take a look at the technical chart right at the beginning.

EUR/USD

After its last high at 1.1275 in July, the euro only gave up against the U.S. dollar. The tailspin was only stopped in August at just 1.0765, the ascending trendline. If the euro remains below 1.1050 and also falls below the 1.08-mark again, we generally expect a drop to 1.05 (red ellipse). On the other side, the few euro bulls are waiting for a renewed breakout above 1.12.

GBP/USD

The British pound has also been in a downtrend channel since July. The 200-day EMA was able to stop the fall above 1.2550 for the time being, but as long as the pound trades below 1.2850, it remains vulnerable to further losses.

DAX

The index marked a high of 16533 points on July 31. However, this level could not be maintained and so it also went downhill for the German index to 15465. Currently, we see the DAX back in its sideways trading range between 16300 and 15600, which has existed since April of this year. Thus, we have to wait and see.

Today at 12:30 UTC, the U.S. labor market data are due. This news could lead to some volatility in the dollar crosses as usual. We take it leisurely.

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Will Payrolls Help Or Hurt The Greenback?

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day again and today’s U.S. jobs numbers could matter more than usual as investors assess the possibility of a steeper Federal reserve rate hike path in 2018. While the Fed has established a commitment to gradual monetary policy pacing even under the chairmanship of Mr. Powell, job and wage growth will shape the expectations for 2018 tightening. The central bank is expected to endorse a wait-and-see approach in the first half of the next year after a last rate hike in 2017, which is widely expected to be announced on next week’s Fed meeting.

In short, there is a greater risk of disappointment than an upside surprise when coming to the latest job numbers. If job growth comes in below expectations amid slowing wage growth, the dollar will give up its recent gains. If today’s NFP report surprises to the upside, the dollar will continue to rise amid progress on the tax-cut legislation.

Traders around the world will watch the NFP release at 13:30 UTC.

GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on speculation that Ireland and Britain were close to a Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will have time until Sunday to resolve the deadlocked Brexit talks. The GBP/USD jumped back towards 1.3520 after it found support at 1.3320. With the pound trading above 1.3330 we now expect the pair to head for a test of 1.3630/50.

EUR/USD: The euro further declined against the greenback and appears to be headed for a test of the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. We anticipate a crucial support area between 1.1740 and 1.1710 and if that threshold remains intact we could see some pullback towards 1.1805 and possibly 1.1850.

We wish you profitable trades for today and a cozy and relaxing winter weekend.

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BoE Super Thursday: Watch Out For Breakouts

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Market May Underestimate The Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Dear Traders,

Despite the relatively low volatility in the currency market the U.S. dollar appreciated against all other major currencies. Trading conditions in the EUR/USD were overall quiet and short-traders had to be satisfied with smaller profits. Given the low volatility environment before the Easter break we do not expect the euro to show larger movements today even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and forecasts point to a decline in the headline figure, which may trigger short-term pullbacks in the greenback.

Unlike the euro the GBP/USD showed more volatile swings which have unfortunately resulted in two false breakouts before sterling was able to break below 1.4150. According to the saying “all good things come in threes” a third sell order would have finally hit all profit targets but as we always abide by our trading rules we missed out on that profitable downward move.

Having digested the recent terror attacks in Brussels the interest of investors is once again increasingly directed towards the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Comments from Fed speakers seem to be suggesting a more hawkish outlook for interest rates than the market is currently pricing in. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in an interview yesterday that policy makers should consider an interest rate increase at their next meeting in April. He sees the case for a move in April if another strong jobs report confirms that the labor market is improving, underlining the unchanged economic outlook and prospects for higher inflation. Bullard stressed that the committee might “raise rates more rapidly later on” if unemployment exceeds targets. Fed officials will now “look at April and see what the data looks like” when the next meet on April 26-27.

The focus will therefore shift to March Nonfarm payrolls data due for release next Friday April 1. As a rate hike next month has not been priced in, the dollar could rally strongly if the jobs report is strong.

U.K. Retail Sales (9:30 GMT) and U.S. Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) are due for release today and could trigger the last volatile swings this week.

GBP/USD: Technically we see current resistances at 1.4155 and 1.4190, whereas lower support levels could be at 1.4035 and 1.40.

EUR/USD: Amidst low volatility conditions we see current resistances at 1.1205 and 1.1235. However, lower supports are seen at 1.1135 and 1.1110.

Please note that we will not provide any signal alerts on Good Friday and Easter Monday. We will be back on Tuesday, March 29.

We wish you a very Happy Easter!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Will Payrolls Confirm The Fed’s Hawkish View?

Dear Traders,

As expected, the U.K. inflation report has been the catalyst for the the big downward move in the British pound yesterday. The pound dropped like a stone and provided short-traders a nice profit. The Bank of England indicated it remains cautious about raising rates and lowered its growth and inflation forecasts. The MPC minutes showed that only one member voted for a rate hike this month, with the majority saying underlying price pressures were not strong enough to warrant a rate increase. Despite the dovish report, BoE governor Mark Carney signaled in a later interview that investors should be ready for tightening in 2016. “At some point, rates are going to move. It’s not today, unfortunately”, he said.

The euro took a breather and traded directionless sideways. Traders had to struggle with fake-outs, eliminating previous gains in the EUR/USD.

Today all eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. The majority of economists expect payrolls to rise by a larger amount than the previous month. Investors are waiting for a confirmation of a healthy U.S. growth, justifying an imminent rate increase. Dollar bulls would get a strong signal when payrolls exceed 200k, average hourly earnings increase and the unemployment rate remains either steady or shows a decline. On the other side, if the market will be caught by surprise and labor market data disappoints, the USD could fall quickly and forcefully.

Before payrolls are due for release,  U.K. data such as Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance (9:30 GMT) could impact on the pound sterling.

We wish you a wonderful weekend and a profitable trading day!

Daily Forex signals:

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Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Dear Traders,

We got what we were looking for with our short-entry in the GBP/USD, and we took advantage of almost the entire downward move which has ended in a profit of 110 pips. The British pound dropped sharply after the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement did not satisfy investor’s expectations. Only 1 member of the monetary policy committee voted for a rate hike – investors had been looking for more than 2 hawks and sold-off the pound as a result. Moreover, the BoE lowered its inflation forecast with Governor Mark Carney indicating that “negative inflation wouldn’t be surprising”. The bottom line is, that the central bank is in no rush to change its monetary policy in the near term.

The euro failed to provide any profitable trading chance yesterday, remaining sideways between 1.0935 and 1.0875. Let’s see if we see more momentum coming up with the U.S. labor-market numbers today.

What to expect from today’s Non-Farm Payrolls?

Economists are looking for a healthy job report with payrolls growth exceeding 200K, a steady unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings to grow at a steady pace. If one of these conditions will miss, dollar bulls could be disappointed and drive the USD lower. Arguments for weaker payrolls could be the smaller increase in private-sector jobs according to the ADP report on Wednesday. On the other hand, the ISM index rose by a record level, an argument for stronger payroll growth.

Payrolls are due for release at 12:30 GMT.

We wish you a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

 

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Quiet Trading

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s trading was relatively quiet with only small market movements. The U.S. Dollar advanced slightly against both of our major currencies but failed to show any big moves on the back of mixed economic data. The ISM index fell to its lowest level in 3 months but going into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, economists are still looking for job growth to hold steady by more than 200K.

Today there are only few important economic data scheduled for release. The U.K. Construction PMI (8:30 GMT) and U.S. Factory Orders (14:00 GMT) could have an impact on the currencies.

Further analysis for subscribers.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Non-Farm Payrolls

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