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EUR/USD – How Low Can The Euro Go?

What a volatile roller coaster ride! The U.S. consumer price index came in at a shocking 9.1 percent and the U.S. dollar fluctuated sharply. After gains and losses, the greenback ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound. The inflation-jump added fuel to bets that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by 100bp later this month.

EUR/USD – How low can the euro go?

Options traders have set a potential short-term bottom at 0.9850. However, the euro crisis is far from over which is why some warn a chaotic descent taking the euro even lower could be in the cards. Other strategists warn of a “non-linear” slide to 0.95.

For now, however, the pair is oversold, which is why we may see a modest rebound. In the short-term, we see the chances slightly in favor of the bulls with a rebound-target seen at around 1.0120.

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Follow The Trend Until It Ends

It’s the worst losing streak in the market since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock markets fall toward bear market, the euro drops toward parity with the U.S. dollar, the cable slides back toward 1.20 and also cryptocurrencies experience a major set-back. Market strategists expect this trend to continue and warn investors to prepare for a recession. While some optimistic traders are buying the dip while trying to pick a bottom, one thing is clear in a sell-off: You won’t know it’s over until long after it ends. And thus, we cannot predict what will happen and whether the sell-off will be over soon but we can follow the trend for now.

EUR/USD

We believe that the euro could slide even further touching 1.03 before it could try to recover some losses. A current resistance is seen at 1.06. We bear in mind that the pair’s all-time low is at 1.0340. A significant drop below 1.03 could see accelerated bearish momentum toward parity.

GBP/USD

If the pair is unable to break above 1.23, we see a next lower target at 1.20. The cable’s all-time low is at 1.1409.

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Quiet Trading On Thanksgiving?

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes did not provide any new insights but did confirm the market’s assumption that a December rate hike should be a done deal. The minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates as the labor market improved ‘appreciably’, with some saying a hike should take place next month. The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus the euro while the common currency fell to a fresh one-year low.

As stated in yesterday’s analysis, we now see next support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0470 and if these barriers fall, the next stop could be at parity. A current resistance is however seen at 1.06.

U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, which is why we expect market movements to be limited amid a low liquidity environment. Let’s see.

The only piece of economic data will be the German IFO index due at 9:00 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the euro.

The British pound remains the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar and traded resiliently between 1.2470 and 1.2360. Sterling traders were looking in vain for any profitable movements and so we had to record some losses after three failed sell attempts. However, the technical picture has not changed and we still wait for a break of 1.2515 or 1.2350 respectively.

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