Posts

Pound Falls On Fears Of Collapse Of Brexit, Focus Now On Inflation

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Trading was relatively quiet on Monday with the EUR/USD trading within a narrow 40-pip range. The picture was different in the GBP/USD, which started the week with volatile swings ranging from a daily high of 1.3312 to a low of 1.3225. As mentioned in our analysis from Monday, the pound sterling is currently torn between rising inflation and thus, higher interest rates on the one side and Brexit uncertainty on the other side. Yesterday, the pound came under selling pressure on speculation that Brexit talks could break down, unless the European Union gives ground at a summit of EU leaders later this week. A person familiar with the matter said the entire Brexit process will be in danger of collapse as long as negotiations are failing to make progress. The pound fell to a low of 1.3225 on the concerns about the lack of progress.

The focus will now shift to the U.K. Consumer Price Report, due at 8:30 UTC followed by BoE Governor Carney’s appearance before congress at 10:15 UTC. We expect the GBP/USD to remain vulnerable to volatile swings while we currently see the chances in favor of further bearish movement towards 1.30. If the cable breaks above 1.33 again, it may head for a test of 1.34 but the upward movement could be limited as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the currency.

From the Eurozone we have the Consumer Price Report and ZEW Survey scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. These reports may have a short-lived impact on the euro.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Greenback Strengthens Pre-NFP

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Finally, the U.S. dollar returned to its former strength pre-NFP with also EUR/USD joining the downward trend. The euro gave way to the strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD dropped below 1.17 after gains were capped at 1.1780.

The main topic in the market was however the fall of the British pound which came under severe downward pressure after chaotic U.K. politics put the country’s outlook on very shaky foundations. The pound came under selling pressure after UK Prime Minister Theresa May put in a disastrous performance at the annual conference of her Conservative Party. Her speech was disrupted by prankster and then by a coughing fit. That disastrous speech weakened her position as PM while the idea of replacing May in the middle of Brexit negotiations is widely viewed with horror. A replacement by Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson could make a deal with the EU harder rather than easier to reach.

The GBP/USD fell below important support-levels at 1.3150 and 1.31 and could now be headed towards a test of 1.30.

Today, all eyes will be on the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The U.S. September Employment report is expected to show a weaker reading due to the impact of hurricanes on southern states. Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials reinforced optimism ahead of the jobs report, saying Fed policymakers “pencil in” a rate hike in December and three hikes next year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is currently at 75 percent.

If payrolls beat expectations, the greenback will receive a boost and could further rise against the euro and pound.

If you want to know how we trade the payrolls release sign up for our daily signal service.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Euro Trends Sideways While Cable Extends Losses

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the euro showed only little movement on Tuesday, short traders that sold the British pound have benefited from the downswing until a low of 1.2169. Volatility in the EUR/USD is still low with the currency pair remaining range bound. Euro traders await tomorrow’s ECB meeting for further direction. Until then, we may have to watch the euro trading between 1.0640 and 1.0490.  In the hourly chart we currently see a higher likelihood of upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the euro drops significantly below 1.0560. This assumption is based on a descending triangle in the hourly chart. If the euro breaks however above 1.0575, that chart pattern becomes void.

Unlike the euro, the GBP/USD could be vulnerable to pullbacks after having dropped as low as 1.2169. If the pound breaks above 1.2215 we may see a correction towards 1.2250 and 1.2280.However, if sterling falls back below 1.2190 it could extend its losses towards 1.2140/30.

In short-term time frames we see an ascending triangle which could predict upcoming bullish momentum.

 

From a fundamental perspective, the only interesting piece of economic data will be the ADP Employment report scheduled for release at 13:15 UTC which could have an impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Euro And Pound Trade Near Crucial Price Levels

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the market was the sharp decline of the British pound on Monday. Sterling touched its lowest level since October on hardening Brexit talk and we are curious to see whether the 1.21-level will be able to withstand the downward pressure. In case of a dip below 1.21 a next lower target could be at 1.2080 but this should be the lower bound of a short-lived downward trend. Those who bet on a pullback now, should focus on prices above 1.2080 to evaluate their positions. If the pound drops below that level we expect accelerated bearish momentum, driving the pound towards 1.19. In case of pullback in the GBP/USD, we expect the 1.2230-level to act as a short-term resistance. Anyway, yesterday was a profitable trading day for sterling traders with our short entry providing a good gain.

The euro rose towards the upper bound of its current trading range and we will now focus on the 1.0640/60-resistance area. There is a risk that the single currency may overshoot the 1.0670-level and head for 1.0850 following a stronger upward correction. On the downside, the 1.0480-level remains in focus.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Takes A Breather While Euro And Pound Recover Slightly

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We got what we have been looking for: A breakout of the cable’s narrow trading range. While an initial attempt to buy sterling above 1.2235 proved unsuccessful, breakout traders were later able to profit from the pound’s sharp drop towards 1.2080. Sterling tumbled before BoE Governor Carney’s testimony to the House of Lords Tuesday but bounced back from its fresh low of 1.2082 as Carney said there were limits to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) willingness to look beyond an overshoot of their inflation target. In other words, his comments on inflation mean that further easing is unlikely in the near term, highlighting policy makers’ concerns about the risk of stagflation, which arises from the depreciation of the pound.

Carney’s recent comments suggest the MPC will stick to the sidelines at the next ‘super Thursday’ event on November 3.

Technically the pound remains confined to a recent 100-pips trading range between 1.2250 and 1.2150. Above 1.2250 it could head for a test of 1.2320 whereas a break below 1.2130 may drive the GBP/USD to fresh lows around 1.2050.

The EUR/USD however, failed to show larger movements yesterday and remained stuck between 1.09 and 1.0850. It was the second consecutive trading day on which none of our signal entries was triggered. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s easy monetary policy but conceded that low interest rates are not ‘costless’ for the eurozone and policy makers “certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates at such low levels for an excessively long time”. Draghi’s ‘neutral position’ drove the euro higher but gains were capped at 1.09 for the time being. We are still looking for a significant break above 1.09 but any upward movements could be on a shaky footing as a next resistance is seen at 1.0950.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The only reports come from the U.S. and will be Advance Goods Trade Balance at 12:30 UTC, Services PMI at 13:45 UTC and New Home Sales at 16:00 but none of these reports is expected to have a major impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound In Free Fall Amidst Uncertainty

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The free fall of the British pound continues with the U.K. economy facing difficult times in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU-bloc. The huge sell-off in the pound was the biggest story in the market yesterday and it continued even during the Asian trading session, sending the pound to a record low of 1.2797. The effects of Brexit on the U.K. economy and its confidence are becoming more and more evident. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney outlined more tools to contain the Brexit fallout, pledging to implement any other measures needed. Carney warned of prospects for “a material slowing of the economy” amid concern over the health of the global economy.Given the high level of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market, three of the U.K.’s largest real estate funds have frozen almost 9.1 billion pounds of assets to halt Brexit retreat. All in all, the pound’s future does not look bright and traders should expect further losses given the uncertain environment. Dark clouds are gathering on Britain’s horizon and this is only the beginning.

Given the pound’s sharp depreciation, investors seek for safer assets, flocking into the U.S. dollar. The euro dropped towards 1.1035 as a result of that risk aversion. A next important support is seen around the 1.0990-level. Below 1.0980, we expect the euro to fall towards 1.0940 and 1.0870. On the upper side, the euro rejected the 1.1186-level, from where it went into a tailspin. With the 1.12-resistance being intact for the time being, euro bulls should wait for a break above 1.1215/20 in order to buy euros towards higher targets.

Market participants pushed back their bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, even though the Fed is likely to stay on track to raise interest rates if growth and inflation expectations are met.

The Fed releases minutes from its June 14-15 FOMC meeting, but the FOMC minutes are expected to take a backseat to heightened concerns about global growth and risk aversion.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC will be watched closely whereby a better figure could add further strength to the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Brexit! Will The Euro Crash?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

What can we say about the market today? Awesome, sad, impressive or the reaction was foreseeable? One thing is certain, however: Traders were able to get a substantial slice of the pie. From our point of view, the nighttime trading went very well. We achieved a reasonable profit with each of our entries in both currency pairs and we are therefore more than satisfied with our performance. Incidentally, our biggest single gain last night was a 420-pip profit, which was recorded by our short-entry in the GBP/USD.

The pound sterling crashed as the U.K. voted to quit the European Union. The first reaction has led to a massive sell-off in the pound. The euro moved in tandem with pound while the euro’s trading range was confined to 500 pips (5 percent), whereas the pound’s range extended to 1700! pips (17 percent). The pound’s downward move is the biggest drop of all time as Britain’s future is highly uncertain after the vote to exit the EU. The next steps are unclear, EU leaders and finance ministers could confer as soon as this weekend. The future path of the EU and U.K. is clearly subject to downside risk, this is the only (sad) certainty at the moment.

EUR/USD downside risks: If the euro breaks below 1.0890, a next support could be around 1.0820. Below 1.0780 the euro could tumble towards 1.0710 and 1.0560.

The storm in the Forex market is not yet over and traders should be cautious. If you already gained a good weekly profit then stop trading for this week. If you don’t mind getting your fingers burnt, then go ahead.

We say goodbye to this fateful week and wish you a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co