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Price Breakouts In Preparation?

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Not much has changed in the price development of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD Wednesday.

While the pound traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar on the back of higher U.K. inflation, the euro remained confined to a very small trading range between 1.1835 and 1.18.

Is it time for a breakout? Given the sluggish price development in recent days we keep tabs on potential price breakouts providing bigger moves and thus larger gains for traders. Today we will have U.S. retail sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could have an impact on the greenback.

Let’s take a brief look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

Above 1.1825 we expect the pair to test the 1.1830-40 area again. Euro bulls should watch out for a break above 1.1860 that could lead to a test of 1.1870-80. A bearish breakout, on the other side, could start with a dip below 1.1790. A lower target is seen at 1.1750-40.

GBP/USD

The cable holds above 1.38 and thus, chances are still in favor of a bullish move towards 1.39 and 1.40. For the bears to regain control, we must need to see a break below 1.3780.

DAX

We will watch out for rise above 15735 in order to anticipate more gains towards 15850. Below 15620, we expect the index to fall towards 15550 and possibly even 15400.

 

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Euro And Cable Correct Gains

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The EUR/USD extended its gains to a high of 1.1845 before we finally saw a correction. The pullback was anticipated and could continue until 1.1750. If the euro is, however, able to hold above 1.18 traders will shift their focus to the crucial 1.1880-1.19 resistance.

The GBP/USD remained consolidated between 1.3810 and 1.3740. A break below 1.3710 could spur bearish momentum towards 1.3650, whereas on the upside, the 1.3820-hurdle remains an important resistance in the short-term.

The DAX touched 16000 but refrained from an excursion beyond that level – at least until now. As long as the current support at 15700 holds, we still favor further upward moves towards 16100.

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Profitable Start To The New Week

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Monday started off with a profit for traders as dollar bulls took a breather, pushing other currencies higher in return. As expected, we thus saw some rebounds in short-term time frames. The British pound rebounded from oversold price levels and took out the 1.37-barrier. We went long in the GBP/USD at 1.3665 and were able to take profit around 1.37. We now pencil in a next resistance zone between 1.38-1.3830.

The rebound in the EUR/USD proved to be slightly smaller with the euro hitting an intraday high at 1.1750.  Above 1.1770, we expect the pair to test 1.18 and possibly even the area around 1.1830.

The DAX tested the 15800-level on its hold after the short-lived breakout above 15920 failed to provide any follow-through. Our short entry provided traders a good profit. We continue to pay attention to a sustained break above 15920 in order to shift the focus to 16050.

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We wish you good trades!

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GBP/USD Tests 1.3830, EUR/USD To Follow The Uptrend?

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Sterling bulls were able to book a good profit in the GBP/USD Monday with the pair extending its current rebound towards the 1.3830-50-region, which we expect to serve as a short-term resistance. A break above 1.39, however, could open the door for a run towards 1.40. Below 1.3650, the focus shifts towards 1.35.

EUR/USD: Chances are currently slightly in favor of more upside potential with our focus shifting to the 1.1840-50-area. An upside break of 1.1860 could lead to a test of 1.19 but we do not expect too much amid quiet trading conditions. On the downside, we expect the 1.1735 and 1.1715-levels to act as a support.

DAX: We keep an eye on the price range between 15900 and 15000. A sustained break above 15900 could open the door for a run for 16250. On the downside, a break below 15000 could see a next lower target at 14800.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but we adjusted risk exposure even in the month of July.

We wish you good trades!

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DAX Sees Strong Rebound – 15000 In Sight?

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The biggest story of yesterday’s trading was the DAX which went on a roller coaster ride, providing short traders a huge gain, or more precisely, hitting our take-profit of 100 points before we saw a strong rebound towards 14700. The fact that the support area around 14400 remains unbreached confirms the uptrend and strengthens the case for a next leg up towards 15000. Technically, the recent correction was as expected, formatting a bull flag within an intact uptrend. This bull flag was now broken to the upside predicting further gains and slowly shifting the focus towards a higher target at 15000. A current support is now seen at around 14620.

EUR/USD: After hitting our lower target at 1.1770 the pair is now in oversold territory, increasing the chances for a rebound. Bulls in this pair should now watch out for price breaks above 1.1815 that could lead to further gains towards 1.1835-50. If the euro falls, however, below 1.1740 next lower targets will be at 1.17 and 1.1620.

GBP/USD: The cable found a halt at 1.3670 and was able to stabilize above 1.37. A current resistance zone is seen between 1.3850 and 1.39 and as long as that zone remains unbroken, bears could regain control in this pair.

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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Further Bullish Breakouts On The Horizon?

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Dear traders,

Nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of the technical outlook.

GBP/USD: The cable was able to stabilize above 1.41 after a dip below 1.41 proved to be short-lived. A bullish break above 1.4160 could open the door for another leg up towards 1.42 and maybe even 1.4250. However, sentiment could slightly change in favor of the bears if the pound drops below 1.4050 with a lower target coming in at 1.40.

EUR/USD: The pair remained within a relatively tight price range between 1.2175 and 1.21 and provided no profitable trading chances yesterday. We still wait for a sustained break above 1.2180 in order to mark a higher target at 1.2220-30. A current support is seen at around 1.2080.

DAX: After dipping to a low of almost 13660 on Monday we saw accelerated upward momentum in the index. Now the chances are in favor of further bullish momentum with higher targets seen at 14110 and 14150. A break above 14200 could pave the way for a bull run towards 14500. On the downside we see a support at 13780.

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We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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GBP/USD: Pound Jumps To 1.4243-High

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The pound sterling soared to a high of 1.4243 against the U.S. dollar despite heavily overbought conditions. The pound’s uptrend has been bolstered by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s lockdown easing roadmap that is expected to put the U.K. economy on course for a strong rebound. Economists expect the reopening roadmap will allow the economy to climb back to its February 2020 level late this year. A fast economic recovery and loose monetary policy could even lead to a rise to 1.45 in the GBP/USD. However, while this upside forecast target could be achievable in the near-term, we remember that conditions are heavily overbought, increasing the likelihood for a pullback.

Technically, traders should watch out for a sustained break above 1.4250/60 now. A next higher target could be at 1.4345 – the January 2018 high. On the downside, the 1.40-level could now serve as a support.

The dollar fell against its major peers Tuesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank was nowhere close unwinding its easy policy. The dovish comments bolstered the current market sentiment and support risk assets. As Powell reassured investors on stimulus, he voiced cautious expectations for a return to more normal activity later this year and said that higher bond yields reflected economic optimism, not inflation fears.

We wish you good trades!

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We Are Back

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Will The Euro Rise Or Fall? Waiting For Draghi

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Dear Traders,

It’s decision day at the European Central Bank and traders are eagerly awaiting ECB President Draghi’s comments. Today’s ECB meeting is a very important event as it is expected to provide clarity on the withdrawal of stimulus. The majority of analysts expect Mario Draghi to delay announcing a timetable for cutting its monthly bond purchases at this meeting. The reason is the strength of the euro which may prevent the central bank from announcing a big change in monetary policy. Moreover, improving economic conditions in the Eurozone are likely to balance out near-term concerns over the euro’s strength. Ongoing EU improvements thus give room for the ECB to forego an announcement of a QE taper. If the ECB downplays tapering, the euro could fall. In the bullish case of a surprise announcement particularly a reduction of 30 billion or more, the euro will further rise. Whatever the case, the central bank has little choice but to cut asset purchases by next year, simply because it has no more bonds to purchase. In a first step, the ECB could reduce its monthly purchases to 40 billion from 60 billion which could happen at the start of 2018.

It all depends on Draghi’s rhetoric but even in the case of a dovish announcement, the medium-term trend is towards euro strength.

The U.S. dollar, in contrast, has become incredibly oversold. So any disappointments on the Eurozone front would be sufficient to trigger a correction in the EUR/USD, even though a setback may not last very long. Let’s be surprised.

The European Central Bank decision is scheduled for 11:45 UTC, followed by the highly anticipated ECB press conference 45 minutes later.

The euro traded virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar while the price action of the EUR/USD was limited to a tight range between 1.1950 and 1.1910. We are still waiting for breakouts of that narrow range and prepare for larger swings today. Above 1.1960 the euro could head for 1.2120. Below 1.1890 it could fall back towards 1.18 and possibly even 1.17.

We wish you good trades!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Dollar Weakness Continues

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Dear Traders,

The greenback continued to weaken against the euro and British pound. While the euro was Thursday’s best performer, rising towards 1.0680 and providing euro bulls a good profit, there was less consistency in the performance of the pound sterling. The pound traded sideways after peaking at 1.2524 and buyers had to be content with a modest profit. U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the pound.

Apart from the second-tier U.K. Retail Sales report, there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus, the price action might be oriented towards resistance- and support levels. Let’s have a look at the current important price levels:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.0705

1.0750

1.0775

 1.0630

1.06

1.0550

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2550

1.26

1.2675

 1.2440

1.2410

1.2330

We wish you a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co