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GBP/USD Trends Lower But Prepare For Pullbacks

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Dear Traders,

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax-plan announcement had little impact on the market as it foreshadows an uphill battle in U.S. Congress. While Trump said the tax-cut plan was aimed at helping working people and making the tax code fairer, there is concern about the budget deficit. The plan contained only few details on how to pay for the tax cuts without expanding the budget deficit and adding to the nation’s amount of debt. The plan must be turned into legislation and investors are still skeptical that Congress could approve a tax bill in the near future.

The U.S. dollar slightly extended its climb against the euro and British pound as market participants raised their expectations for one more Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is now 70 percent.

Traders should keep an eye on the U.S. GDP figures, due for release at 12:30 UTC. In case of a surprise we will see more volatile fluctuations in the USD crosses.

GBP/USD

The British pound extended its slide and fell below 1.3380. However, the dip below that support level was not sufficient to increase bearish momentum and we now expect the pair to find some support around 1.3350. Looking at the 4-hour chart we see the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching oversold territory. This situation may encourage buyers to take long positions above 1.3340. If the pound climbs back above 1.3430 we could see a run for 1.35.

Traders await a speech of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at the BoE Independence conference at 8:15 UTC. If Carney raises rate hike expectations the pound could quickly recover from its lows.

The euro continued its short-term downtrend and fell towards 1.17. As stated in yesterday’s analysis we expect a stronger support coming in between 1.1710 and 1.1680. Buyers of the EUR/USD should now wait for prices above 1.1825 in order to buy euros towards 1.19.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Rises As BoE Hints At Rate Hike

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Dear Traders,

What a trading day for Sterling traders! The pound jumped to 1.34 as the Bank of England hinted at a rate hike “in the coming months”. While the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold, it was talking in much stronger terms about tightening. The pound initially plunged to 1.3150 before jumping to fresh one-year highs. Sterling traders’ efforts paid off and we were able to gain a nice profit of more than 100 pips by trading our yesterday’s long entry.

BoE Governor Carney said that the majority of the MPC see that “the balancing act is beginning to shift” and that “some adjustment of interest rates may be needed in the coming months”. The market is now looking to the November meeting as a possible time for a BoE rate hike. The Bank of England meeting in November is a Super Thursday on which the central bank releases its inflation report, along with the economic outlook and its rate decision. However, there is some doubt about the BoE’s strong rhetoric: If MPC officials have deliberately taken a hawkish tone to support the market’s appetite for sterling in order to slow inflation it may be some time before they are going to raise rates.

We currently see GBP/USD trading around 1.34. Next hurdles will be at 1.3450 and 1.3480 before the focus shifts to a potential bullish breakout beyond 1.35. Looking at larger time frames, a break of the 1.35-level will be crucial for a long-term bullish trend.

The U.S. dollar in contrast benefitted from the U.S. CPI which fueled hopes for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Furthermore, the Trump reflation trade came back into focus, providing some relief for the greenback.

U.S. Retail Sales are due for release at 12:30 UTC but today’s report is not expected to help the USD strengthening.

EUR/USD: The support around 1.1830 is still unbroken but this could change in the near-term – provided that the euro remains below 1.1950. We now expect the pair to trade between 1.1950 and 1.18. Any breakouts above or below that range could accelerate the respective momentum.

We wish everyone a relaxing weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Profitable Trading For Euro Bulls, Now What?

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Dear Traders,

There was nothing stopping euro bulls from pushing the euro beyond 1.20 despite the absence of changes in the ECB’s monetary policy. The euro owes its recent appreciation in large part to the further improved outlook for economic growth in the Eurozone. The European Central Bank upgraded its forecast for growth this year to 2.2 percent, which is the fastest pace in a decade. While the ECB refrained from reducing asset purchases this time, Mario Draghi did suggest that decision on the quantitative easing program (QE) could be made next month. The strength of the EU economy has prompted the market to discount a policy shift, which is most obvious in the strong uptrend of the EUR/USD. While the currency pair has already charged remarkably high, the level of intervention rhetoric from the ECB was too mild to prevent euro bulls from pushing the single currency higher. Moreover, when coming to the currency’s sharp appreciation, Draghi didn’t seem overly concerned.

In other words, there was nothing in the way of further euro strength since the ECB will start tapering and if not today, then certainly next time.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar continues its downtrend. Market participants are concerned that the impact from Hurricane Harvey and now Irma are causing data distortions, and thus, undermine the chances of a year-end Federal Reserve rate hike.

EUR/USD

We got what we have been looking for: A breakout of the euro’s narrow trading range. Our yesterday’s long entry has proven to be sustainably profitable. We now focus on a next target at 1.2135, from where we may see some pullback. On the downside, we expect the 1.20-area to lend a support for the time being. However, bear in mind that the pair approaches overbought territory, a fact that increases the chances of a reversal.

GBP/USD: The pound sterling headed for 1.3150 on the back of broad-based dollar weakness. Sterling bulls were able to gain a good profit by using our long entry at 1.3061. Once the cable breaks above 1.3165 we will shift our focus to the August high near 1.3270. Important supports are seen at 1.3050 and 1.30. Traders should keep an eye on the U.K. data (Industrial Production, Trade Balance) at 8:30 UTC.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

NFP Outcome Will Seal The Dollar’s Fate

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Dear Traders,

The BoE’s Super Thursday is behind us and we got what we were looking for: A breakout in GBP/USD. Our forecast of further bearish momentum toward 1.3110 following a break below 1.3190 proved to be correct. Thus, sterling bears were able to pocket a nice gain yesterday. What prompted the pound to decline? The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted 6-2 to keep interest rates unchanged but more importantly, policy makers lowered their economic growth projections to 1.7 from 1.9 percent. Furthermore, the BoE cut its forecast for wage growth for 2018 and 2019. The market was betting on a surprise hawkishness but what it got was some uncertainty when Carney expressed concerns about a “smooth transition to a new economic relationship with the EU”. While he also pointed towards some tightening in the next three years, yesterday’s policy statement was interpreted as negative.

The euro favored the upward movement after correcting towards 1.1830. Based on the recent uptrend we generally expect further gains towards 1.1960 and 1.20. A break below 1.1850 however, could send the euro towards its lower support at 1.18.

The pound now faces a crucial support at around 1.31. A significant break below that barrier may result in further bearish momentum towards 1.30.

All eyes will be on the U.S. employment report scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. Market participants hope that the NFP report will provide clues on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s next policy move. So the U.S. Dollar’s fate will depend on the NFP outcome. Let’s be surprised.

If you want to know how we will trade the payrolls, sign up for our daily signal service here.

We would like to inform all subscribers and readers that we will take a summer trading break until end of August. Our signal service and all daily analysis will be resumed in September.  

We wish you a very enjoyable summer.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Profitable Trading Week: Secure Your Profits And Lean Back

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Dear Traders,

Things turned out differently than many market participants had hoped. Almost everyone was expecting a very dovish tone from European Central Bank President Draghi but what we got, was a neutral Draghi who talked up the EU economy, saying officials will reassess stimulus in autumn. His remarks that the economy is finally enjoying a robust recovery outweighed concerns about the rise in the common currency. The market fully ignored Draghi’s assertion of the need for continued accommodation and pushed the euro to its strongest level in 23 months.

Investors will have to get used to the prospects of less ECB stimulus even though no decision has been made on timing or form of any tapering yet. Draghi only signaled the ECB would discuss its bond purchase program in the autumn.

The euro rallied to a fresh high of 1.1658 and many analysts already expect the euro rising toward higher targets at 1.17 and even 1.20. Time will tell.

The cable tumbled back below the 1.30 level as initial Brexit talks did not produce a breakthrough on any of the key issues between the UK and EU. Our short entry at 1.3015 has proved highly profitable and gave us a nice profit while using it twice.

For our part, since we have gained a good profit this week we will not reinvest our weekly profits and will thus do a trading break today. Have a good weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Further U.S. Dollar Weakness Expected

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We hope you successfully weathered the first day of Yellen’s testimony and the currencies’ whipsaw performance.

The Federal Reserve Chair sounded slightly more cautious on the inflation outlook while saying the U.S. economy should continue to expand over the next few years, allowing the central bank to stick to its path of higher interest rates. In the Q&A session, Yellen indicated the Fed is still considering risks around the inflation outlook while inflation is running below the Fed’s 2 percent target. Concerning the Fed’s balance sheet, Yellen mentioned that the central bank anticipates it will start reducing its balance sheet “this year” while the size of the balance sheet is uncertain.

The Fed chair will continue testifying today at 14:00 UTC before the Senate Banking Committee.

In short, Yellen’s comments suggest that the Fed is in no rush to tighten monetary policy because of too-low inflation, even though the U.S. economy is in good shape. This slightly less hawkish tone bodes well for U.S. stocks but weakens the U.S. dollar.

Traders of the EUR/USD now might argue that the U.S. dollar strengthened instead in the aftermath of the testimony. One reason for the euro’s short-term decline might be speculation the ECB could follow the Fed’s low inflation expectations and may put the awaited taper in question, at least in the near future.

For our part, we expect the EUR/USD to strengthen, heading for a test of 1.15. Euro bears should however wait for a break below 1.1380 or, on the other hand, sell euros at higher levels following a test of 1.15.

As expected, the GBP/USD received a boost from stronger-than-expected U.K. labor market data and started its relief rally towards 1.29. If the pound breaks above 1.2930 we expect further gains towards 1.2970 and possibly even 1.3020. A significant break below 1.2850 however, could spark bearish momentum towards 1.28.

If you want to know how to exactly trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD including an appropriate money management per trade and day, sign up for our daily signal service here.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

EUR/USD Forecast Met; Focus Now On Further Upside Momentum

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Dear Traders,

We got what we were looking for in yesterday’s analysis: A breakout in the EUR/USD. The euro broke out of its narrow trading range and surpassed the 1.1445-barrier. Our long entry has thus proved a success. We are now looking for additional upside in this pair and look at higher targets at 1.15, 1.1530 and 1.1580. With the EUR/USD gradually approaching overbought territory we also anticipate pullbacks which may drive the euro back toward 1.1415. With the euro remaining above 1.1460 however, there is no cause for concern for euro bulls, at least for a while.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives testimony today and tomorrow with market participants looking for guidance on when the Fed could start shrinking its balance sheet. Ms. Yellen is due to start her prepared remarks at 12:30 UTC followed by Q&A at 14:00 UTC. Yellen’s testimony is the prime monetary policy event for dollar traders and so we expect higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The British pound depreciated against the U.S. dollar Tuesday and fell toward a low of 1.2830. The catalyst for the decline was a speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent who refrained from commenting on interest rates. Broadbent instead warned of Brexit risks and hence the pound weakened as the market has hoped that there would be anything hawkish in his speech.

From a technical perspective, we now expect the GBP/USD to trade with a tailwind since the pair refrained from a break of its recent downtrend channel. Based on that channel, it could be time for a pullback and hence upcoming bullish momentum toward 1.2920. Let us be surprised.

The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the pound. Signs of stronger job growth may encourage the BoE to start normalizing monetary policy. Stronger job/wage growth figures would thus have a positive impact on the pound sterling.

We wish you profitable trades for today!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Profitable Trading Month June

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound extended their rallies and further strengthened against the struggling U.S. dollar. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England gradually shifting the tone toward a more hawkish stance, the euro and pound benefited against the greenback.

The EUR/USD approaches 1.15 and if U.S. key inflation data due at 12:30 UTC misses, we could see at least a test of the crucial 1.15-level. The PCE deflator is considered the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge and analysts expect the annual rate slowed to 1.4 percent.

The EUR/USD trades currently at 1.1445 and if the pair passes 1.1470, we could see the euro heading for a test of 1.15 and possibly even 1.1550. Sellers of the EUR/USD should either enter at higher resistance levels, taking advantage of potential pullbacks or wait for a decline below 1.1370.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC.

The GBP/USD was able to hold above 1.30, at least for the time being. If the price breaks above 1.3060 we expect the cable to head for 1.3120. A crucial resistance is however seen at 1.3240/50. As long as the pair remains above 1.29, there is no cause for concern for sterling bulls.

The U.K. GDP is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC.

Having gained a very good profit this month by our daily signals we will sit back today and secure our monthly profits. Have a good weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Quiet Trading But Prepare For Upcoming Momentum

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Dear Traders,

The market was quiet- surprisingly quiet compared to other summer months in the past. However, we were able to profit even amidst this low volatile market and look back on a profitable performance this month. While the performance of the EUR/USD is still lagging behind, recording a small profit of currently 33 pips, traders of the GBP/USD can be happy about the exceptional level of profits. Here we already gained a nice profit of 301 pips in June.

There is nothing new to report, at least nothing that changes the technical outlook in the near-term. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded within very tight ranges, ending yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged. Consequently, none of our daily signal entries was triggered.

We may see some accelerated momentum today. While today’s economic data reports are only of secondary importance, there are at least two reports on the economic calendar which are worth mentioning. The Eurozone PMI reports are due for release at 7:30 and 8:00 UTC and could have a short-lived impact on the euro. From the U.S. we have the PMI reports scheduled for release at 13:45 UTC followed by New Home Sales (14:00 UTC).

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

GBP/USD: Highly Profitable Trading

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Those of you who traded the GBP/USD recently, were able to achieve a significant profit by trading our daily signal alerts. Yesterday, this was once more the case while our short trade hit the profit target in less than five minutes. The pound slid to a low of 1.2602 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he is still worried about the impact of Brexit on the economy. Carney said in yesterday’s morning statement that now is not the time to hike rates. In short, his view is still very bearish and with Brexit negotiations having just begun it could be a bumpy road for the U.K. in the next months. In case of any bad headlines, the pound will fall but looking at the technical picture, we currently see chances of a, at least short-term, recovery from sterling’s low levels.

GBP/USD

The currency pair stopped its fall at the lower bound of its recent downward channel. While this does not necessarily mean that further losses are unlikely, that halt just increases the likelihood of a potential pullback towards 1.27 and 1.28. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches oversold territory, underpinning the chances of short-term upward movements. If the pound drops however below 1.2590 we expect accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.2550 and 1.25.

The performance of the EUR/USD is lagging behind since price fluctuations narrowed. The euro declined on the back of a slightly stronger U.S. dollar but the decline was limited to a low of 1.1118. We will now pay attention to a break of 1.11. After the 1.1075-level has been breached, we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.1020. Current resistances are however seen at 1.1150 and 1.12.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co