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GBP/USD Tests Crucial Price Levels

Dear Traders,

The British pound has broken lower against the U.S. dollar after rejecting the 1.34-hurdle. The cable is still trading within a bullish channel, at least as long as 1.33 holds. We therefore may see a run for 1.3420, provided that the pound remains above 1.3290.

The EUR/USD failed to show any signs of a sustained recovery Monday while the upward movement was limited to a high of 1.1744. As long as the euro holds above 1.1675 we may see a leg higher towards 1.1850. On the bottom side we will pay attention to lower supports at 1.16 and 1.1550.

This week we will see a slew of Bank of England speakers as well as ECB President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt today at 13:00 UTC.

For sterling traders, the U.K. Services PMI due at 8:30 UTC might be of interest, followed by a speech of BoE member Cunliffe.

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Yen Serves As Safe Haven On Korea Worry; Euro And Pound Unmoved

Dear Traders,

Nothing much has changed in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD while a holiday trade was clearly in effect on Tuesday. Other currencies, such as the yen were sought as a safer haven after North Korea said Tuesday it successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, escalating tensions between North Korea and the U.S.

The political turmoil comes ahead of the G-20 summit in Hamburg this weekend. U.S. President Trump will attend the G-20 summit and is expected to hold his first meeting with Putin.

Today, market participants will focus on the Federal Reserve and its minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. Investors are looking for clues on the path for interest rates ahead of the U.S. jobs report due on Friday. With a number of market participants doubting the Fed rate hike plans, the FOMC meeting minutes could be an interesting event for traders.

The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC.

The EUR/USD found some near-term support at 1.1335 but we expect a stronger support to be at 1.13. If the euro falls below 1.1280 we could see a slide towards 1.1220. Euro bulls should however focus on a renewed break above 1.14 in order to buy euros towards 1.15.

The GBP/USD refrained from dipping significantly below 1.29, at least for the time being. In order to sell pounds we will keep an eye on prices below 1.2880. Lower supports are seen at 1.2850 and 1.28. Buyers of the GBP/USD should either take advantage of corrections towards 1.2885 and 1.28 or wait for a breakout above 1.3030.

The U.K. PMI report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have a short-term impact on the pound.

We wish you good trades for today!

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Euro On A Rollercoaster While Pound Continues To Weaken

Dear Traders,

The broad-based strength of the U.S. dollar drove the activities in the currency market and allowed for adequate profits for sterling and euro bears. The British pound was hit hard by Brexit concerns on the one hand and dollar strength on the other. As a result, the cable fell to a 31-year low against the greenback and traders prepare for further losses in the GBP/USD. While the pound is expected to depreciate further ahead of Britain’s planned exit from the EU, investors believe that a weaker currency will help to boost British exports, making larger U.K. companies more competitive.

Technically, we expect the 1.27-level to lend a short-term support to the pound before we may see further losses. In case that the 1.27-mark withstands the downward pressure, we anticipate a correction toward the 1.28-level.

The euro was accompanied by higher volatility on Tuesday and losses in the EUR/USD were soon erased after a report said that the European Central Bank will probably taper bond purchases before the conclusion of quantitative easing. The euro overreacted on that hawkish statement and jumped towards 1.1250. Nevertheless, the technical picture has not changed materially as the euro is still confined to its tight trading range between 1.1240 and 1.1140. Above 1.1240 we may see a renewed test of 1.1270 while a current support is still seen around the 1.1130-level.

Today, we have some interesting economic data scheduled for release, influencing the price development of both major currency pairs:

8:30 UK Services PMI

9:00 EUR Euro-zone Retail Sales

12:15 USA ADP Employment Change

14:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

(Time Zone UTC)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Market Still Seems To Be In Its State of Summer Lethargy

Dear Traders,

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to put an end to the market’s summer lethargy and instead of giving direction, most major currency pairs remained virtually unchanged after some short-term fluctuations during payrolls release. While the August jobs report came in weaker than-expected, tempering speculation of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, the market’s reaction to the report was restrained with both euro and cable rising only marginally. The market environment therefore became somewhat unattractive for traders since large market movements have become a rarity.

In terms of economic market moving data, there is not much going on this week. From the U.S., the only important pieces of economic data are the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Tuesday) and the Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday). The most important event this week will be the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The ECB meeting could trigger some market moves as the central bank is expected to lengthen quantitative easing for a second time. Although the ECB is not expected to cut interest rates, Thursday’s meeting is the most likely opportunity to announce more stimulus or change the QE program. We therefore expect the euro to come under pressure ahead of the announcement. Technically, we will focus on a break of the 1.1120-level in order to sell euros towards 1.1080 and 1.1050. On the upside, a break above 1.1330 could change the bias in favor of the bulls.

The British pound was able to maintain its price level around the 1.33-mark. Above 1.3350 we see chances of a test of 1.3370 and 1.34. However, any further gains could be limited until the pound’s current key resistance at 1.3480. Sterling traders should keep an eye on the Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures (Wednesday) as well as on the Services PMI report, due for release today at 8:30 UTC.

The U.S. market will remain closed for a public holiday on Monday, so we expect volatility to be low and recommend traders to take profits at lower targets given the calm market.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable: Muted Price Development

Dear Traders,

There is nothing new to report as yesterday’s price development was anything but spectacular.

The euro hovered around the 1.15-level while gains were capped at 1.1530. Consequently, euro bulls’ efforts didn’t pay off and we suffered some losses with our long-entry. As expected, the 1.1510-1.1540 zone proved to be a short-term resistance for the EUR/USD and we will now wait for prices above 1.1540 or even better for a break above 1.1565 in order to buy euros. On the bottom side, the 1.1450-level remains in focus and euro bears might have to wait for prices below 1.1440 and 1.1430 before downward momentum may intensifies.

There are no important economic reports from the eurozone scheduled for release today. The only second-tier report from the U.S. will be Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims due at 12:30 UTC.

The British pound initially dropped towards 1.4460 but the downward move was not sustained and so GBP ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar. The U.K. Services PMI is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and if data disappoints, sterling could fall towards 1.4430.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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British Pound Recovers, Euro Remains Sideways – What’s Next?

Dear Traders,

The stronger-than-expected ADP report failed to have a major impact on the U.S. dollar. The private report showed companies added 214k workers in February, indicating the U.S. labor market remains strong. However, ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated payrolls report, traders should not expect too much. It would need an unambiguous strong report with payrolls figures exceeding 200k and average hourly earnings showing an accelerated growth in order to revive the dollar rally. Expectations of imminent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are being pushed back while market participants are currently seeing a 38 percent chance of an increase in June. Consequently, the dollar rally could be paused until the market will receive fresh hawkish hints from the Fed.

The best performer yesterday was the British pound which experienced a relief rally towards 1.41. But traders should not get fooled by the recent recovery as sterling remains vulnerable to losses in the medium-term. We expect the rebound in the currency pair to be short-lived with gains being capped at 1.41 or 1.4160. If GBP breaks above 1.4160 a bullish extension would be possible until 1.4230. However, the risk is to the downside and traders should focus on a break below 1.39.

The most important data from the U.K. will be Services PMI, scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and if the report disappoints sterling could start giving up its gains.

GBP/USD

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot3.3.16

 

EUR/USD

The euro continued its sideways move and traded well above 1.08. Whether we will see increased momentum in the near-term will hinge on the performance of the U.S. dollar and thus U.S. data.

We see the currency pair trading within a downward channel. Based on that channel corrections could be currently limited until 1.0940 before shifting the focus to a break of 1.08.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot3.3.16

The most important piece of economic data before the NFP report will be the ISM Non-Manufacturing index, due for release at 15:00 GMT. Any significant change could affect the USD accordingly. Before coming to the ISM index, we will also keep any eye on U.S. Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) even if data is not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Upcoming Breakouts?

Dear Traders,

Not much has happened yesterday. While the euro slightly extended its gains as far as 1.0940, the British pound fluctuated more or less sideways versus the U.S. dollar. The limited fluctuations in both currency pairs did not permit any sustained profit for traders on Tuesday.

Ahead of Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report and monetary policy announcement on Thursday we expect GBP to trade nervous between 1.4470 and 1.4310/1.4290. The Bank of England is forecast to keep interest rates on hold until after Britain’s referendum on EU membership. In the medium term, investors are pessimistic and pushed back their expectations on the timing of a rate hike. The U.K. Services PMI is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and may spur the cable for a breakout of its narrow trading range.

GBP/USD

Prices narrowed and formatted a symmetrical triangle this morning. Traders should focus on a breakout above or below that pattern, which may ignite fresh momentum in any direction.

Chart_GBP_USD_Hourly_snapshot3.2.16

EUR/USD

The technical outlook remains unchanged. Based on a symmetrical triangle in the daily chart, we will focus on an upside break of 1.0960 for any bullish and, vice versa, on a downside break of 1.0835 for bearish engagements.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot3.2.16

All eyes will be on ADP numbers and the ISM Non-Manufacturing index. Both reports are expected to show a small pullback in comparison with the previous month but if numbers show a steeper decline, the USD could further weaken.

13:15 USA ADP Employment Change

15:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

(Timezone GMT) 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co