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Will U.S. Dollar Strength Persist?

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Welcome to a new trading week.

The U.S. dollar has strongly recovered after the Federal Reserve showed a tighter monetary policy stance than other central banks, which have already eased policy. Market participants now expect only one Fed rate cut this year versus two or three earlier. The hawkish Fed statement from last week attracted buyers in the greenback and thus, dragged the euro and British pound lower.

The Bank of England is likely to pave the way towards a rate cut this summer as inflation and the labour market show signs of continued easing. However, the BoE is unlikely to surprise the market with a rate cut when they meet this Thursday but their messaging will be eagerly anticipated. If UK inflation data, released one day before the BoE decision, is in line or better, the central bank may be able to give a more dovish forecast. And a more dovish BoE could extend the current downward move in the cable.

GBP/USD

Looking at the weekly chart we see that the pair fell back below the 1.27-benchmark (blue EMA200). Remaining below 1.27 could see a next leg lower towards 1.2550 (orange EMA100). We recommend traders to wait for a break below 1.2640 in order to sell the pound towards 1.2620 and 1.26. Below 1.2590 we will go for 1.2550 and 1.2520.

DAX

Investors continue to exit the market in the wake of a shift to the far right in the European elections and the index corrected sharply. Only the crucial 18000-threshold could stop the fall – for now. Traders will now pay attention to a break below 17940 with a lower target at around 17700. Bulls may engage, however, only above 18250.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Greenback Weakens

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The U.S. dollar sold off Wednesday and we got what we have been looking for: A technical upside breakout in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. All of our yesterday’s long orders have reached their profit targets.

While the U.S. CPI print came in largely in line with estimates, the greenback eased on the back of easing in the U.S. job market and moderating economic growth.

Technically, the euro and pound sterling broke above crucial resistances. Given the strong bullish day-candles in both pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD we expect some more bullish momentum to come and thus anticipate higher price targets.

As long as 1.0850 holds, a next higher price area in the EUR/USD could be between 1.0950 and 1.0970. In the GBP/USD we will focus on a sustained break above 1.2710 in order to pencil in a higher target at 1.2770.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

After GDP Disappointment Focus Shifts To U.S. PCE

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Prices fluctuated sharply yesterday and provided almost no profitable trading chance in terms of our signal entries. The U.S. dollar fell on the GDP figure disappointment but turned around straight as traders factored in the PCE increases. Today’s Core PCE Price index, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT is expected to come in at 2.6 percent.

However, the market fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in November, which is why today’s release is unlikely to be the game changer.

As always, we wish everyone a beautiful weekend!

Note that we will be on vacation from 29/4/24 until 13/5/24 so there will be no signal service during that period.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 26/4/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0760

Short @ 1.0670

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2515

Short @ 1.2490

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 18060

Short @ 17990

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Daily Trading Signals

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Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 16/4/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0640

Short @ 1.0585

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2475

Short @ 1.2415

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 17840

Short @ 17760

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Weitere Euroschwäche voraus?

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Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche.

Auch diese Woche steht fundamental eigentlich nicht viel auf dem Programm, weshalb die Inflationsdaten der Eurozone am Donnerstag und die BIP-Daten aus Deutschland am Freitag schon die Highlights darstellen. Es könnte demnach wieder unbehaglich für den Euro werden. Deutschland ist durch den Abbau als Wirtschaftsmotor in der EU mit seinem BIP ins Minus gerutscht und sollten sich diese negativen Bilanzen weiter festigen, könnte die Europäischer Zentralbank die erste Zentralbank sein, die ihre Zinssätze senken muss um die angeschlagene Wirtschaft zu stützen. Das würde demnach zu einer Schwäche im Euro führen. Wichtig werden deshalb auch die Inflationsdaten der EU sein, ob man sich potenzielle Zinssenkungen überhaupt „leisten“ kann.

Aus rein technischer Sicht befinden sich sowohl der EUR/USD als auch der GBP/USD in größeren Zeitfenstern streng seitwärts orientiert.

EUR/USD

Die Unterstützung bei 1.07 konnte Halt bieten und ließ ein Vorrücken in Richtung von 1.0830 möglich werden. Sollte die 1.0830-Grenze von den Bullen allerdings nicht geknackt werden können, so könnte es wieder steil bergab gehen und zwar diesmal in Richtung von 1.06.

Die Chancen stehen jedenfalls zugunsten der Bären.

GBP/USD

Der Cable scheint fast zum Stillstand gekommen zu sein mit einer Handelsspanne zwischen 1.27 und 1.25. Interesse für dieses Paar kommt bei uns erst wieder oberhalb von 1.28 oder unterhalb von 1.2490 auf.

DAX

Der Index wäscht alle Sorgen weg und fliegt im Höhenrausch in Richtung 17200. Ob dieses hohe Niveau gehalten werden kann, ist angesichts der aktuellen Wirtschaftssorgen recht fraglich.

 

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

 

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Low Volatility Ahead?

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Last week ended with an increase in risk sentiment with the euro and British pound strengthening against the U.S. dollar and the DAX jumping back towards 16200. Friday’s U.S. PCE index came in lower-than-expected, erasing recent gains in the dollar.

The U.S. markets will be shut for the Independence Day holiday tomorrow, which could result in a quiet trading session to the start of the week.

On the economical docket, the only interesting data release will be the U.S. labor market report on Friday.

We bear in mind that the summer doldrums now in July could lead to quieter trading conditions and less chances to profit. Traders should therefore not invest too much, trade with smaller positions or just take a summer trading break.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Focus This Week On U.S. CPI And BoE

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Last week was characterized by an U.S. dollar decline on optimism that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle. On Wednesday, U.S. CPI data for April will show whether inflation has eased according the forecast to 5.5 percent in April from 5.6 percent in March, backing the hawkish market assumption.

Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report triggered a scaling back in Fed rate cut speculation for July, down to 36 percent from a 60 percent chance for a rate cut before the data. If CPI comes in higher, the dollar might regain some strength as the market has to reassess its rate cut speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bp. With U.K. inflation still high at 10.1 percent, the BoE is likely to remain hawkish.

GBP/USD

The cable has hit the next higher target at 1.2650 while remaining within its recent uptrend channel. If the pair now breaks above 1.2675, we could see an extension towards 1.2720 but caution is advised. The pair entered overbought territory and is due for a correction. A support is seen at around 1.25.

Waiting for breakouts in the EUR/USD and DAX…

EUR/USD: A sustained break above 1.11 or below 1.09 is needed to revive momentum after days of consolidated movement.

In the DAX we still wait for a sustained break above 16000 which could lead to a run for 16300. On the downside, a recent support area remains intact between 15700 and 15600.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Eventful Week Gives Hope For New Momentum

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After several weeks of lackluster momentum, market participants are now bracing for a heavy loaded week of event risk with not only three crucial Central Bank meetings on tap but also the U.S. nonfarm payrolls at the end of this week.

The first risk event will be Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. The Federal Reserve is expected to slow the pace of tightening to 25 basis points. The problem is that the markets are ahead of themselves, appearing more dovish than the Fed. Rate cuts are already priced in looking two years out while inflation is still far above target. In other words, while the Fed may keep the focus on near-term tightening, the market is already speculating on an end of the tightening cycle instead of the possibility of keeping rates restrictive for some time. This sets the stage for disappointment rather than for confirmation of the speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions are due.

The BoE has hinted at yet another 50bp rate hike which is largely priced into GBP crosses. What could be bearish for the pound would be an additional vote split between 50bp and 25bp among BoE policy makers.

GBP/USD: The current bias is still bullish, provided the pair remains above 1.2250. A break below 1.2240 would possibly result in a quick sell-off towards 1.2170/1.21 and possibly even 1.20. On the top side, sterling bulls were still unable to push through the resistance zone at 1.2450 but this week’s fundamental drivers could provide a catalyst for a leg higher – or lower.

EUR/USD: The euro’s uptrend is still intact even though overbought conditions and the solid resistance around 1.09 raise the odds for a correction. If the ECB hints at a more aggressive approach in hiking rates to fight inflation while the Fed remains comfortable with slowing the pace of hikes, we could see a test of 1.10 and possibly even 1.11. On the downside, we keep tabs on the 1.0650-area as a potential support zone.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Trading Signals 27/1/23

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U.S. GDP data came in better than expected, bolstering slightly the dollar. However, larger and profitable market moves were missing with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remaining in tight ranges.

Traders will keep an eye on the PCE deflator today at 13:30 UTC.

Let’s see if we can lock in some profits today. We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 27/1/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0910

Short @ 1.0835

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2420

Short @ 1.2335

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15190

Short @ 15120

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Instagram

Price Action Leaves Much To Be Desired

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This was definitely not the volatility what would be expected from the last large risk event of the year. The price action in the U.S. dollar was noticeably more constrained and there was no traction following the event.

Overall, yesterday’s outcome was in-line with expectations, even though Fed chair Jerome Powell warned the Fed is not close to ending its anti-inflation campaign of rate hikes while saying “we still have some ways o go”. In terms of terminal rates, policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1 percent before being cut to 4.1 percent in 2024 (see dot plot). Even though these are higher levels than previously indicated, the market didn’t see reason for a repricing.

The focus now shifts to the Bank of England and European Central bank decisions.

Both central banks are expected to announce a 50bp rate hike today. The BoE is expected to have further to run before hitting its own terminal in 2023 compared to its US counterpart while as for the ECB, there seems more potential for further tightening into 2023. with recession risks remarkably high for Europe and the rest of the world combatting inflation more aggressively, the Eurozone’s policy authority may find it reasonable to tapering its efforts with a lower terminal rate.

EUR/USD: The euro finds itself within the resistance zone between 1.06 and 1.08. The technical outlook has not noticeably changed which is why we still focus on price breakouts either above 1.08 or below 1.0350.

GBP/USD: The cable’s recent upward channel is still intact, showing a price range between 1.25 and 1.2150.

Given the December liquidity drain around the holiday, we do not expect to see larger movements after traction was all but absent even yesterday.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

Facebook

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