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Low Volatility Ahead?

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Last week ended with an increase in risk sentiment with the euro and British pound strengthening against the U.S. dollar and the DAX jumping back towards 16200. Friday’s U.S. PCE index came in lower-than-expected, erasing recent gains in the dollar.

The U.S. markets will be shut for the Independence Day holiday tomorrow, which could result in a quiet trading session to the start of the week.

On the economical docket, the only interesting data release will be the U.S. labor market report on Friday.

We bear in mind that the summer doldrums now in July could lead to quieter trading conditions and less chances to profit. Traders should therefore not invest too much, trade with smaller positions or just take a summer trading break.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Focus This Week On U.S. CPI And BoE

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Last week was characterized by an U.S. dollar decline on optimism that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle. On Wednesday, U.S. CPI data for April will show whether inflation has eased according the forecast to 5.5 percent in April from 5.6 percent in March, backing the hawkish market assumption.

Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report triggered a scaling back in Fed rate cut speculation for July, down to 36 percent from a 60 percent chance for a rate cut before the data. If CPI comes in higher, the dollar might regain some strength as the market has to reassess its rate cut speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bp. With U.K. inflation still high at 10.1 percent, the BoE is likely to remain hawkish.

GBP/USD

The cable has hit the next higher target at 1.2650 while remaining within its recent uptrend channel. If the pair now breaks above 1.2675, we could see an extension towards 1.2720 but caution is advised. The pair entered overbought territory and is due for a correction. A support is seen at around 1.25.

Waiting for breakouts in the EUR/USD and DAX…

EUR/USD: A sustained break above 1.11 or below 1.09 is needed to revive momentum after days of consolidated movement.

In the DAX we still wait for a sustained break above 16000 which could lead to a run for 16300. On the downside, a recent support area remains intact between 15700 and 15600.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Eventful Week Gives Hope For New Momentum

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After several weeks of lackluster momentum, market participants are now bracing for a heavy loaded week of event risk with not only three crucial Central Bank meetings on tap but also the U.S. nonfarm payrolls at the end of this week.

The first risk event will be Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. The Federal Reserve is expected to slow the pace of tightening to 25 basis points. The problem is that the markets are ahead of themselves, appearing more dovish than the Fed. Rate cuts are already priced in looking two years out while inflation is still far above target. In other words, while the Fed may keep the focus on near-term tightening, the market is already speculating on an end of the tightening cycle instead of the possibility of keeping rates restrictive for some time. This sets the stage for disappointment rather than for confirmation of the speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions are due.

The BoE has hinted at yet another 50bp rate hike which is largely priced into GBP crosses. What could be bearish for the pound would be an additional vote split between 50bp and 25bp among BoE policy makers.

GBP/USD: The current bias is still bullish, provided the pair remains above 1.2250. A break below 1.2240 would possibly result in a quick sell-off towards 1.2170/1.21 and possibly even 1.20. On the top side, sterling bulls were still unable to push through the resistance zone at 1.2450 but this week’s fundamental drivers could provide a catalyst for a leg higher – or lower.

EUR/USD: The euro’s uptrend is still intact even though overbought conditions and the solid resistance around 1.09 raise the odds for a correction. If the ECB hints at a more aggressive approach in hiking rates to fight inflation while the Fed remains comfortable with slowing the pace of hikes, we could see a test of 1.10 and possibly even 1.11. On the downside, we keep tabs on the 1.0650-area as a potential support zone.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Trading Signals 27/1/23

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U.S. GDP data came in better than expected, bolstering slightly the dollar. However, larger and profitable market moves were missing with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remaining in tight ranges.

Traders will keep an eye on the PCE deflator today at 13:30 UTC.

Let’s see if we can lock in some profits today. We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 27/1/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0910

Short @ 1.0835

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2420

Short @ 1.2335

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15190

Short @ 15120

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Price Action Leaves Much To Be Desired

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This was definitely not the volatility what would be expected from the last large risk event of the year. The price action in the U.S. dollar was noticeably more constrained and there was no traction following the event.

Overall, yesterday’s outcome was in-line with expectations, even though Fed chair Jerome Powell warned the Fed is not close to ending its anti-inflation campaign of rate hikes while saying “we still have some ways o go”. In terms of terminal rates, policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1 percent before being cut to 4.1 percent in 2024 (see dot plot). Even though these are higher levels than previously indicated, the market didn’t see reason for a repricing.

The focus now shifts to the Bank of England and European Central bank decisions.

Both central banks are expected to announce a 50bp rate hike today. The BoE is expected to have further to run before hitting its own terminal in 2023 compared to its US counterpart while as for the ECB, there seems more potential for further tightening into 2023. with recession risks remarkably high for Europe and the rest of the world combatting inflation more aggressively, the Eurozone’s policy authority may find it reasonable to tapering its efforts with a lower terminal rate.

EUR/USD: The euro finds itself within the resistance zone between 1.06 and 1.08. The technical outlook has not noticeably changed which is why we still focus on price breakouts either above 1.08 or below 1.0350.

GBP/USD: The cable’s recent upward channel is still intact, showing a price range between 1.25 and 1.2150.

Given the December liquidity drain around the holiday, we do not expect to see larger movements after traction was all but absent even yesterday.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

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DAX Holds Above 14000

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The GBP/USD slipped again below 1.30 but bearish momentum faded quickly which is why we had to record a stop-loss with our sell position at 1.2985. If the cable now remains above 1.2990, we expect further gains towards 1.31. However, negative headlines about the war in Ukraine will weigh on the current market sentiment.

Trading the DAX paid off while we were able to book a good profit with our yesterday’s sell order. Above 14000 we pencil in a higher target at 14500, whereas below 13950, we will focus on lower price areas such as 13600.

Our adding ideas for today 20/4/22:

Long @ 14210

Short @ 14120

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Debt Ceiling Fears Ease, Focus Shifts To NFP Report

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Good morning, it’s NFP day. The U.S. payrolls report is estimated to show a gain of 500k jobs in September that could also cement expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start tapering bond purchases.

As for the U.S. debt ceiling, the risk of a potential default later this month had been averted (at least for now) as Congressional leaders in Washington appeared to agree to a short-term deal to raise the debt limit. However, the short-term agreement does not solve the larger problem of a looming default for the largest global economy.

The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of today’s NFP report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. If data beat expectations the greenback will further rise as the market can start to price in a more aggressive Fed rate hike cycle.

We will know more later. However, traders should be cautious and brace for higher volatility.

If you want to know how we trade the NFP release, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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No Big Movements

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Investors shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s dovish message and Treasury yields surged amid concern the Federal Reserve risks letting inflation accelerate. The U.S. dollar strengthened in response to rising yields.

Both of our currency pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD trended lower Thursday but bearish momentum was not enough to trigger any significant downward move.

The current low-volatile market environment could persist given that there are no major risk events scheduled in the coming days, providing very little chances of profitable opportunities.

We will keep an eye on the technical picture in order to evaluate profitable chances.

EUR/USD: Watch out for an upside break above 1.20 and 1.2060 or on the bottom side, for a break below 1.1890.  A lower target is seen at 1.1810.

GBP/USD: There is nothing new to report while cable remains trading between 1.40 and 1.3780.

DAX: The index becomes vulnerable to a correction but as long as 14600-14550 holds, there is a chance of a bullish extension until 14880.

Have a good weekend.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar weak, Pound Jumps to Fresh Highs – Next Targets in Focus

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The biggest story in the Forex market was the rise of the British pound which jumped to the highest level since April 2018. Falling coronavirus cases, the U.K.’s successful vaccination drive and a neutral stance of the Bank of England could bolster the pound’s uptrend in the short-term. However, traders who are betting on the pound’s long-term strength should be careful since the pound is behaving like a risk-on currency, making it vulnerable to a reversal.

Some strategists are already becoming more bearish on the pound, saying that trade disruptions, a widening current account deficit and under-priced political risk around another Scottish independence referendum are providing a headwind for the pound.

In short-term time-frames we saw GBP/USD testing the 1.39-level, bringing a higher target of 1.3970 in focus. However, the currency pair remains in overbought territory, making a correction more likely than a linear continuation of the pair’s uptrend. A current support is seen at around 1.3750.

The anti-risk U.S. dollar depreciated Friday. With the pace of coronavirus outbreaks slowing further, investors are banking on U.S. government spending and the vaccine rollout to boost the economic recovery, even though new variants of the virus are threatening to temper the outlook.

The EUR/USD was able to stabilize above 1.21 after Friday’s decline below 1.21 has proved short-lived as bearish momentum faded. As long as the currency pair trades above 1.2080, we will focus on a test of 1.2170-80.

The DAX seems to be on its way towards a test of 14200. If the index breaks above that level, we may see a continuation of the upward movement towards 14400. A current support is however seen at 14000.

U.S. markets are shut for President’s Day today, so we might have a quiet start to the new week.

Upcoming key events this week:

  • EU finance ministers will discuss the bloc’s current economic situation and outlook on Tuesday.
  • FOMC minutes from the January meeting are due Wednesday.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Daily Forex Signals

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The British pound dropped below 1.36 and slid to an intraday low of 1.3541 after England entered its third lockdown. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a national lockdown starting from Monday night until mid-February.

Elsewhere, Germany is set to extend its lockdown.

GBP/USD gave up some of its recent gains after bulls failed to push the pair above 1.3705. A next important support area will be around the 1.35-level and if that area proves to hold, chances are in favor of another leg up with a next target at 1.3740. However, bulls will first need to overcome the 1.3650-level in short-term time frames.

EUR/USD reversed shy of 1.2310 and finally ended the trading day virtually unchanged. Bulls in this pair will continue to focus on a break above 1.2310 while bears may wait for a break below 1.22.

The DAX experienced a roller-coaster ride Monday and finally gave up on 13900 and dipped slightly below 13600. We continue to focus on a trading range between 14000 and 13400.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.2280

Short @ 1.2225

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3615

Short @ 1.3535

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13760

Short @ 13640

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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