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The Euro Refrains To Trade Below 1.07

Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the EUR/USD Tuesday and the euro’s roller coaster ride gave traders no cause for joy. The euro peaked at 1.0816 before it ended the day in negative territory. We went long and short but no movement proved to be sustained. However, the 1.07-support level is still unbroken and as long as the euro remains firmly above that level, we shift our focus to an upside break above 1.0820.

There is no important economic data from the Eurozone today. From the U.S. we have the PPI Report at 13:30 UTC and Industrial Production figures at 14:15 UTC due for release but these reports are not expected to have a dramatic impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling fell towards 1.2380 after a report showed U.K. inflation unexpectedly slowed last month. Meanwhile, BoE policy makers shifted to a neutral stance with Carney saying in testimony that the neutral path is “appropriate” and officials are not considering expansion of any of the Bank of England’s programs. Sterling traders should pay attention to U.K. Employment Report at 9:30 UTC today as any surprises may lead to volatile swings in the GBP/USD. Technically we are waiting for a renewed break below 1.24 in order to sell the pound towards 1.2350. Above 1.2560 however, the bias may shift in favor of the bulls.

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Market Remained Unimpressed By FOMC Statement

Dear Traders,

The market reaction to the FOMC statement was muted with the U.S. dollar ending the trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound. While the Fed minutes confirmed that the central bank is moving toward tightening it also shows continuing disagreement among policy makers. Last month’s decision to hold interest rates at their current level was a close call with three FOMC members dissenting for a rate rise, the minutes showed. Market participants expect the Fed to move in December and while the market is pricing in the probability of year-end hike, the Fed may consider that move to be inevitable to preserve the central bank’s credibility.

Overall, the dollar remains bid on corrections and investors will be looking for dollar dips to buy the currency and participate on the dollar rally. Consequently, we expect further dollar gains in the medium-term but we will pay attention to potential pullbacks in the short-term.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today so trading could be quiet.

Here is where we see current resistance and support levels for both currency pairs:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.1050/60

1.11

 

1.10

1.0970

 

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2230

1.2320

1.2150

1.21

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The Lack Of Market Moving Data Could Result In Sideways Motion

Dear Traders,

Friday’s U.S. labor market report showed that the economy is still performing well overall. While the unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent as more people entered the labor force, closely-watched average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent. The uptick in wages and a solid 215k gain in payrolls add confidence that the U.S. economy will hold up against slowing global growth. The U.S. dollar strengthened in response to the report but gains were limited in the EUR/USD, whereas the cable came under increased pressure on the back of a weaker manufacturing PMI and amid concern that economic and political uncertainty could deter investment inflows from overseas.

As expected the short-term uptrend in the British pound has been reversed and the focus returns to the next support levels at 1.4150 and 1.4050. Short-traders efforts paid off last Friday as our short-entry proved to be profitable and reached our target of 90 pips. Before shifting our focus to next support zones at 1.4140 and 1.4120, the cable must break below 1.4170. After a break below 1.41 a next important support is seen at 1.4050. On the topside we expect upward movements to be limited until 1.4320 and 1.4345.

The euro marked a current resistance around the 1.1440-level. With a renewed break above 1.1415 we might see another test of that resistance level followed by a rise towards 1.1460 and further 1.15. Remaining below 1.14, we expect the 1.1350-level to lend a short-term support to the euro. However, below 1.1335 the focus will shift to the 1.13-barrier.

This week’s economic calendar is relatively light in terms of market moving data. Apart from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday we get some speeches from Fed Presidents throughout this week as well as a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi, scheduled for Thursday. The only important piece of U.S. data will be the ISM Non-Manufacturing index, due for release on Tuesday.

Sterling traders should pay attention to Tuesday’s PMI reports as well as Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures, due for release on Friday.

Today, the U.K. Construction PMI, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT could have an impact on the British pound.

The FOMC minutes are not expected to be a big market mover as Fed Chair Janet Yellen has just reiterated the Fed’s approach to proceed cautiously in raising interest rates. Given that cautious outlook, the dollar could thus show further signs of weakness.

We wish all traders a good start to this week and many profitable trades.

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Euro Benefits As Funding Currency – Sterling Under Pressure

Dear Traders,

The euro advanced as it plays an important role as a funding currency at times of market turmoil. Before rallying above 1.12 the common currency was able to gain ground above 1.1085. For the time being, we continue to expect the 1.1070/50-level to act as a current support-zone. On the upper side, next important price levels could be at 1.1260 and 1.1280. While many traders are wondering how high the euro may go, we should bear in mind, that a strong rise in the euro, much to the displeasure of the European Central Bank, brings policymakers on to the scene in order to talk down the currency. We expect verbal intervention by the ECB should the euro rise further.

The cable, however, declined towards its next important support-level at 1.4350. As long as Brexit concerns remain on the table, the currency is likely to remain under pressure. We expect increased bearish momentum as soon as sterling breaks below 1.4330/25. Lower targets could be at 1.4240 and 1.4180. A short-term resistance-zone is seen at 1.4450/65. Above 1.4475, sterling may climbs towards 1.4540.

Today we have second-tier data scheduled for release, which is expected to have only a minor impact on the currencies.

9:30 UK Trade Balance

15:00 USA Wholesale Inventories

(Timezone GMT)

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Dollar Weakens On Ambiguity About The Fed’s Tightening Path

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes have revealed nothing fundamentally new. On the contrary, the overall picture of the minutes appeared somewhat dovish as the decision to raise interest rates was a “close call” among policymakers. While many Fed officials are confident that inflation would rise in the long-run, others expressed concerns about too-low inflation. Despite the committee’s unanimity to begin the policy normalization process, the expectations between Fed officials and the market regarding the future tightening path are diverging. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said policymakers predict an estimated four interest increases throughout this year, while market participants believe that the Fed could disappoint with only two rate hikes.

Whatever the case, the U.S. dollar received no sustained support from U.S. economic data, whereupon the euro recovered some losses and climbed back above 1.08. Despite a strong uptick in ADP data, the greenback was not able to extend its gains against the euro. The British pound bounced off the 1.46-barrier but still remained below the 1.4650-hurdle this morning. We will therefore closely monitor the 1.4645-level. Once this level is breached on the upside, we could see sterling heading towards 1.4690 and 1.4725. Fresh bearish momentum may increase with a break below 1.46. A next support could be at 1.4565/55.

The euro might have difficulty breaking above 1.0840, where we see a next resistance. For euro bulls it might be smart to wait until prices exceed the 1.0860 level. On the bottom side, we see a current support at 1.0780/75, which should be significantly breached in order to sell EUR/USD towards 1.07.

There are no major important economic data releases today. Second-tier data such as Eurozone Retail Sales and U.S. Jobless Claims could only have a limited impact on the currencies.

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Corrections In The USD Are Likely To Be Short-Lived

Dear Traders,

The biggest story yesterday was the euro which rose against the U.S. dollar and traded well above 1.09. The reason for the correction can be attributed to positioning. Hedge funds reduced their dollar long positions on speculations the Federal Reserve will wait until at least April to raise interest rates again. However, we expect the dollar to resume its uptrend within the first months of the new year, but it might be difficult for dollar bulls to extend gains far beyond the 1.05-area in the EUR/USD. For the time being we expect the currency pair to remain range-bound between 1.0950/85 and 1.0810.

The British pound was accompanied by a slight bearish bias but remained firm above the 1.4875-area. In a next step, the pair will need to break the 1.4860-mark to the downside in order to gain further downward momentum. A reason for the GBP’s recent weakness is the Bank of England’s dovish monetary policy outlook. The BoE signaled the need for tighter policy is less immediate. Moreover, the U.K. Referendum on Britain’s European Union membership, which may take place as early as June, is weighing on the pound. The referendum could damp oversees investment into the U.K.. Consequently, the risk is to the downside. GBP may find a next support at around 1.4810/20. Below 1.4780 lower targets will be at 1.47, 1.4640 and 1.4590.

Today’s focus will be on U.S. data such as Personal Consumption, GDP revisions and Existing Home Sales. If data disappoints to the downside, we could see a slump in the USD.

9:30 UK Public Sector Borrowing

13:30 USA GDP & Personal Consumption

15:00 USA Existing Home Sales

(Timezone: GMT)

This is our last trading day of this year. We look forward to a successful year in 2016 and will continue to share many more profitable strategies with our subscribers.

We wish you all a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

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Quiet Trading

Dear Traders,

These are the very last days of the year and many institutional investors have already closed their books. Despite some important economic reports scheduled for release within the next 3 days, this shortened trading week is expected to be very quiet.

The most important reports coming from the U.S. will be Q3 Gross Domestic Product figures, Existing Home Sales due for release on Tuesday and Personal Income scheduled for release alongside Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday. Most of these reports are expected to show softer numbers, which may lead to a minor weakness in the U.S. dollar’s uptrend. However, going into 2016, monetary policy remains the dominant theme. With the Federal Reserve remaining on track for tighter monetary policy while other central banks are tending towards an accommodative policy stance, the dollar should receive attraction throughout 2016.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. GDP numbers, due for release on Wednesday. If data will be in line with expectations, the impact on the currency pair will be limited.

Let’s have a look at the technical side:

EUR/USD

As previously noted, the 1.08-level remains important to pay close attention to. Prices formatted a head-shoulders pattern, predicting upcoming bearish momentum once the 1.08-mark is significantly breached to the downside. Lower targets could be at 1.0708 and 1.0640. We see an important support area at 1.0550. Below 1.0520, the currency pair could free-fall towards 1.0465 and 1.04. However, current resistances could be at 1.0930 and 1.10. With sustained prices above 1.10 we consider the head-shoulders pattern as void.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot21.12.15

GBP/USD

Sterling is currently trading around the support line of its downward channel. A break below 1.4850 could reinvigorate fresh bearish potential, whereas a break above 1.4965 may drive the pair towards 1.50 and 1.5050.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot21.12.15

We wish traders profitable trades just before the Christmas holidays and recommend not to invest too much during these days and take profits at smaller targets.

Please note that we will take a Christmas break from December 23 until January 1. During this period we will not provide our signal service. We will be back on January 4.

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Rebound for the U.S. Dollar?

Dear Traders,

Last Friday the markets tended to lack direction and did not provide attractive opportunities to invest profitably. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a stronger-than expected job growth of 211k with a steady unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings were in line with expectations and showed a slightly lower rise. All in all, payrolls data supported the view that the U.S. economy can withstand a rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The reactions of the market, however, have been very modest. It could be observed that market reactions to incoming data have been fundamentally changed showing that as long as there are no major surprises, the market does not react anymore.

What is important for the week ahead?

The most relevant reports and events are scheduled for release towards the end of this week. On Thursday we will have the Bank of England’s Rate Decision and a speech by BoE Governor Carney. The U.S. Retail Sales report will be the most important piece of data from the U.S., due for release on Friday. From the Eurozone we have the Gross Domestic Product figures, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

There are no important reports scheduled for release today, but sterling traders should pay attention to a speech by BoE Governor Carney at 15:00 GMT. In short-term time frames, GBP would need to break below the current support at 1.5080 and further 1.5050 in order to reinvigorate bearish momentum. A current resistance is seen at 1.5150.

EUR/USD

Bearish Bias: Technically the currency pair is tending towards a break of the 1.0850-level. Based on the descending triangle, we will focus on a break of the 1.0850/30 area in order to sell the pair towards lower levels. Lower targets could be at 1.0790 and 1.0750. Resistances are seen at 1.09 and 1.0950.

Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot7.12.15

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Euro Appeared Unaffected By Geopolitical Tensions

Dear Traders,

The euro remained resilient amidst heightened tensions between Turkey and Russia. The European currency was capped at 1.0670/75, resulting in a barrier for any bullish engagements. While other currencies such as the JPY benefitted from safe haven flows after geopolitical tensions overshadowed financial markets, the U.S. dollar received less attraction as a safe haven. Political analysts consider a major escalation unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey as a NATO member.

The British pound traded lower on dovish comments from Bank of England officials. BoE Governor Mark Carney said in testimony to lawmakers that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane sounded even more dovish saying risks to the inflation outlook were to the downside. So all in all, given the bleak outlook, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses in the near-term. The currency pair marked a recent support at around 1.5050. Next target is 1.50.

Yesterday’s U.S. data came in mixed and failed to trigger a big reaction in the USD. The focus will now shift to Personal Consumption Expenditure and Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. U.S. New Home Sales are due for release along with Michigan Confidence at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD

The euro is trending downwards. A current resistance can be found at 1.0690/1.07. Any bullish breakouts above 1.07 are likely to be limited until 1.0760-75. A lower support could currently be at 1.0575, from where some pullback may occur.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.11.15

 

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Euro Trades Sideways, Cable Lacks Direction

Dear Traders,

There was only little consistency in the currencies’ performances yesterday. While the euro preferred to trade sideways, the cable has been torn between better than expected U.K. PMI data and the neutral outcome in U.S. Manufacturing. GBP/USD still remains below 1.55 and traders are wondering if the Inflation report, scheduled for release on Thursday, could help the pound for a break through its key resistance.

Let’s wait and see. Before “Super Thursday” we will keep an eye on the U.K. PMI reports. The U.K. Construction PMI is due for release at 9:30 GMT today. Furthermore U.S. Factory Orders are scheduled for release today at 15:00 GMT but this report is unlikely to have a significant impact on the USD.

ECB president Draghi will speak at the opening of the European Cultural Days today at 19:00 GMT.

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