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Rebound for the U.S. Dollar?

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Dear Traders,

Last Friday the markets tended to lack direction and did not provide attractive opportunities to invest profitably. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a stronger-than expected job growth of 211k with a steady unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings were in line with expectations and showed a slightly lower rise. All in all, payrolls data supported the view that the U.S. economy can withstand a rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The reactions of the market, however, have been very modest. It could be observed that market reactions to incoming data have been fundamentally changed showing that as long as there are no major surprises, the market does not react anymore.

What is important for the week ahead?

The most relevant reports and events are scheduled for release towards the end of this week. On Thursday we will have the Bank of England’s Rate Decision and a speech by BoE Governor Carney. The U.S. Retail Sales report will be the most important piece of data from the U.S., due for release on Friday. From the Eurozone we have the Gross Domestic Product figures, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

There are no important reports scheduled for release today, but sterling traders should pay attention to a speech by BoE Governor Carney at 15:00 GMT. In short-term time frames, GBP would need to break below the current support at 1.5080 and further 1.5050 in order to reinvigorate bearish momentum. A current resistance is seen at 1.5150.

EUR/USD

Bearish Bias: Technically the currency pair is tending towards a break of the 1.0850-level. Based on the descending triangle, we will focus on a break of the 1.0850/30 area in order to sell the pair towards lower levels. Lower targets could be at 1.0790 and 1.0750. Resistances are seen at 1.09 and 1.0950.

Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot7.12.15

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Euro Appeared Unaffected By Geopolitical Tensions

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Dear Traders,

The euro remained resilient amidst heightened tensions between Turkey and Russia. The European currency was capped at 1.0670/75, resulting in a barrier for any bullish engagements. While other currencies such as the JPY benefitted from safe haven flows after geopolitical tensions overshadowed financial markets, the U.S. dollar received less attraction as a safe haven. Political analysts consider a major escalation unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey as a NATO member.

The British pound traded lower on dovish comments from Bank of England officials. BoE Governor Mark Carney said in testimony to lawmakers that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time. BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane sounded even more dovish saying risks to the inflation outlook were to the downside. So all in all, given the bleak outlook, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses in the near-term. The currency pair marked a recent support at around 1.5050. Next target is 1.50.

Yesterday’s U.S. data came in mixed and failed to trigger a big reaction in the USD. The focus will now shift to Personal Consumption Expenditure and Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. U.S. New Home Sales are due for release along with Michigan Confidence at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD

The euro is trending downwards. A current resistance can be found at 1.0690/1.07. Any bullish breakouts above 1.07 are likely to be limited until 1.0760-75. A lower support could currently be at 1.0575, from where some pullback may occur.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.11.15

 

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Euro Trades Sideways, Cable Lacks Direction

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Dear Traders,

There was only little consistency in the currencies’ performances yesterday. While the euro preferred to trade sideways, the cable has been torn between better than expected U.K. PMI data and the neutral outcome in U.S. Manufacturing. GBP/USD still remains below 1.55 and traders are wondering if the Inflation report, scheduled for release on Thursday, could help the pound for a break through its key resistance.

Let’s wait and see. Before “Super Thursday” we will keep an eye on the U.K. PMI reports. The U.K. Construction PMI is due for release at 9:30 GMT today. Furthermore U.S. Factory Orders are scheduled for release today at 15:00 GMT but this report is unlikely to have a significant impact on the USD.

ECB president Draghi will speak at the opening of the European Cultural Days today at 19:00 GMT.

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U.S. Data will determine the market’s appetite for USD

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Dear Traders,

Welcome to a new trading week.

Last Friday was characterized by a steady uptrend in the EUR/USD, providing traders a nice profit. The GBP/USD, however, played a spoiling rule and tortured traders with choppy moves and losing trades within a narrow 80-pip range.

New week, new chances

There are plenty of economic data reports this week which should be worthwhile to pay special attention to. On Tuesday, U.K. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release, followed by the German ZEW survey, which will be the only market-moving eurozone data this week.

On Wednesday the focus will be on U.K. labor market data, U.S. Retail Sales and the Fed Beige Book.

U.S. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release on Thursday. Market participants are likely to pay close attention to this report, as the Federal Reserve’s main concern is inflation and a further decline may increase concerns about the timing for a liftoff.

Technical perspective:

EUR/USD

We got what we were looking for last week – a breakout of the euro’s narrow trading range. The euro now faces a next resistance area at 1.1435 – 1.1460. Fresh bullish momentum should only be considered with a break above 1.1470. Remaining below 1.14, current supports could be at 1.1320, 1.1290 and 1.1220.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot12.10.15

GBP/USD

The British Pound corrected its recent uptrend, marking a current resistance at 1.5370-80. Chances are that a significant break above 1.5340 drives the pair towards a test of 1.54 and 1.5430. A current support is seen at around 1.5250. Below 1.5240, GBP is likely to drop towards 1.5150.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot12.10.15

Have a good start to the week.

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Euro is losing strength – GBP at lofty height

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Dear Traders,

After the euro’s brief rebound against the greenback, the common currency failed to extend its gains. We believe that the upside potential in the EUR/USD could be limited ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC meeting next week. A current resistance is seen at 1.1215 and euro bulls would need to clear that hurdle significantly in order to revive fresh bullish momentum towards 1.1270. However, we generally favor a bearish bias on the euro and expect the downward pressure to increase in the near term.

The British Pound experienced a significant recovery against the U.S. dollar. Ahead of tomorrow’s BoE monetary policy announcement, investors might be risk-averse, dampening the demand for sterling. As long as GBP remains below its next resistance at 1.5435, we expect the currency to be vulnerable to bearish corrections.

U.K. Industrial Production and Trade Balance are scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. Apart from that, there are no major economic reports due for release today.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Upside breakouts

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Dear Traders,

With no market-moving data and U.S. markets being closed for the Labor Day yesterday, trading has been very tranquilly. While the euro continued to trade consolidated between 1.1175 and 1.1120 , the British Pound gained some ground above 1.52 and climbed towards the 1.53-mark. Early this morning sterling has surged significant above 1.53, facing a next hurdle at 1.5360.

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product reports are scheduled for release today at 9:00 GMT. If numbers deviate from expectations, we may see further volatile swings in the EUR/USD.

Relief Rally in the EUR/USD

Technically, prices formatted an ascending triangle early this morning, which favored upcoming bullish momentum with a break of 1.1180. It has already proved correct when the euro jumped above 1.12 in the early trading hours. We see a next resistance at around 1.1236.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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U.K. Inflation Data

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Dear Traders,

While the U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against most of its major peers, fluctuations have been unsteady – particularly for EUR/USD traders it has been a tough day, characterized by loss-making fake-outs rather than profitable break-outs.

The British Pound dropped below 1.56 after peaking at higher levels within its current resistance zone. U.K. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release today at 8:30 GMT. Economists forecast that consumer prices stagnated in July for a second month. The Inflation Data is of major importance and we expect high volatility.

Furthermore, U.S. Building Permits and Housing starts are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today.

We wish you a profitable trading day.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Quiet Friday? Focus on Sunday

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Dear Traders,

There is not much news on the market. Economic developments in Greece and China pose a risk for the financial markets but at the moment, the tone is nevertheless optimistic.

Both of our major pairs ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar. While the euro took a short dip below 1.10, it recovered its losses until the end of the day and remained comfortable near 1.11.

The pound sterling remained range-bound and traded between 1.5410 and 1.5345.

What’s important for today?

Not much. The only piece of economic data comes from the U.K. with Trade Balance reports due for release at 8:30 GMT.

The focus will be on the summit of European Union leaders Sunday. EU leaders will determine whether Greece gets a new bailout, or be forced to leave the single currency. With that in mind we may see the EUR/USD opening with a gap again on Monday morning. This time, if the decision is ‘yes’ for Greece, the euro might rally in relief.

EUR/USD

Technically, the sentiment looks more bullish. If the euro is able to trade significantly above 1.1130, it may head for another test of 1.12 and further 1.13. However, below 1.0980 the euro could be vulnerable for further losses.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot10.7.15

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend and a nice Friday.

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Euro still remains immune to Grexit fears

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Dear Traders,

It has been another day without any progress in the Greek debt crisis. Euro-area leaders will now hold an emergency summit Monday. While Greece lurched closer to an exit from the euro, the currency still keeps its head about water and traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Although, investors have faith that a deal will be reached there is a high downside risk for the currency in the event of a Grexit.

We will wait and see. Technically we see a current support at 1.1330. If the euro breaks below that support area we might see the euro tumbling towards 1.1260. The next key support is at 1.12/1.1180. On the upper side there is a next resistance at 1.1450/67, but given the ongoing Grexit fears it could be hard to believe that the euro will break above this zone in the near-term.

For sterling traders it has been another profitable trading day. The British Pound extended its gains and rose above 1.59. A next bullish target could be at 1.60. Current support areas are seen at 1.5850 and 1.58. U.K. Public Sector Finances are scheduled for release today at 8:30 GMT. After a 9-day rally in the GBP/USD the pair is likely to show some consolidated moves.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Will today’s economic data push the euro towards $1.15?

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Dear Traders,

the U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British Pound, as a result of a “patient” Federal Reserve. The Fed has made it clear that there is no rush to raise rates in the next couple of months and also the Eurozone’s concerns about a Greek default are off the table, at least for the short term.

Yesterday afternoon, ECB President Mario Draghi expressed optimism when he said that stimulus starts to a have positive impact on growth. His comments suggest that the ECB may no longer be looking to increase stimulus in the near term.

On the bottom line, there are chances that the euro is prime for a test of 1.15.

While the euro continued to trade sideways within narrow ranges, the British Pound broke above 1.55. We expect further strength up to 1.5585. With a significant break above 1.56 sterling could make its way towards 1.5750.

Today, there is a bunch of important economic data scheduled for release. A decline in U.S. Consumer Prices and Durable Goods Orders could lead to further losses in the USD.

9:55 EUR German Unemployment Data

10:30 UK GDP

14:30 USA Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders

timezone: UTC+1

We wish you a good trading day!

Daily Forex Signals:

EUR/USD

Long @  1.1387                   SL           25           TP 20, 50

Short @ 1.1335                   SL           25           TP 30 -40

GBP/USD

Long @  1.5565                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Short @ 1.5490                   SL           25           TP 20, 40

Daily Signal- performance in pips:

January 2015: EUR/USD: +240 pips, GBP/USD: +200 pips

December 2014: EUR/USD: +405 pips, GBP/USD: +230 pips

November 2014: EUR/USD: + 135 pips, GBP/USD: + 190 pips

October 2014: EUR/USD: + 255 pips, GBP/USD: +390 pips

September 2014: EUR/USD: + 336 pips, GBP/USD: + 424 pips

 

Signal success rate: EUR/USD: 69 %, GBP/USD: 65 %

February 2015

  • EUR/USD: +320  pips
  • GBP/USD: +115  pips

 

Trading Management via email support (Trailing Stops, Risk-/Money Management per trade and Strategy) is only offered to our signal subscribers. Our daily signals will be sent from Mon-Fri at 8:15 (UTC +1) to all subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Please be advised that we are not registered as a forex broker-dealer or an investment adviser. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice.

Our daily signals are neither an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell any of the currency pairs EUR/USD or GBP/USD. The signals are purely hypothetical and have only been prepared for informational and educational purpose and are not intended to be used as a complete source for any trading decision.

Trading may involve significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, performance strategies, prices, charts or other information are not necessarily predictive of any particular result and do not constitute advice. Past performance is no indication of future results.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimarfx.com