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Can The Euro Hold Onto Its High Price Level?

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Dear Traders,

The euro broke above Monday’s spike high at 1.0923 but gains were capped at 1.0950, at least for the time being. The question now is whether there is still room for further gains. Looking at the 4-hour and daily chart we see that the EUR/USD is in overbought territory, a situation that increases the likelihood of upcoming corrections. We see a next hurdle at around 1.0970 followed by a stronger resistance at 1.10. As long as the euro remains firmly below 1.10 we prepare for corrective movements towards 1.09, 1.0840 and possibly even 1.0750.

The British pound rose towards the upper bound of its recent sideways trading range but still refrained from an upside break above 1.2850. As noted in previous analysis, sterling bulls better wait for a significant break above 1.2860 in order to buy pounds towards 1.30. A break below 1.2730 however, could send the pound tumbling towards 1.2650.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so the price action could hinge on U.S. President Trump’s tax-reform speech. Trump is expected to unveil a tax plan that includes a cut of the corporate rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. If he delivers we could see some renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

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Trump Speech Leaves Investors Unimpressed

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Dear Traders,

Well, as a trader, we were expecting much more from Donald Trump’s address to Congress. The market reaction to Trump’s speech was muted as specific details on infrastructure have been elusive. Trump promised to spend as much as 1 trillion dollars on infrastructure but he did not specify the timing and what spending he is referring to. While there were no details, Trump’s speech was notably less confrontational than his inaugural address. The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened following the speech but large market movements are still yet to come.

The pound sterling dropped below 1.2380 and we now expect the GBP/USD to trend lower towards 1.2260/20. The pound will now need to break below 1.2340 but before we could see accelerating bearish momentum it may head back towards a test of the current resistance at around 1.2430.

The U.K. PMI Manufacturing is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could have a minor impact on the pound.

The euro depreciated against the greenback after failing to break above 1.0630. We will now wait for a sustained break below 1.0520 before anticipating further losses. Below 1.0520 we could see the EUR/USD tumbling towards 1.0450. On the upside we expect the 1.0620-level to lend a current resistance to the currency pair.

From the Eurozone, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release today at 8:55 UTC followed by the German Consumer Price Index at 13:00 UTC.

The most interesting piece of U.S. economic data will be the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 15:00 UTC which could have a significant impact on the dollar, provided that there is a surprise.

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Trump’s Promises Are Not Enough To Lift The USD

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Dear Traders,

There is still nothing new to report at this time. No trend, no breakout and consequently no sustained profit. It is thus difficult for day traders to benefit from directionless market swings.

When will a breakout finally come? This is the key question amongst traders and the answer could lie in President Trump’s speech to the joint-session of Congress today. His speech could be a catalyst as long as he provides enough details about his purported stimulus plan. During a speech on Monday, Trump promised that “we’re going to start spending on infrastructure, big”, without giving any details but promises alone are not enough to put an end to the dollar’s lethargy. With no reassuring details the greenback could suffer further pullbacks. Either way, we will prepare for higher volatility during his speech and hope for some larger market moves.

Trump’s speech is set for today at 21:00 ET (Wednesday morning 2:00 a.m. UTC).

The euro rose against the greenback but gains were limited to a high of 1.0630. EUR/USD bulls shall now wait for a break above 1.0620 and 1.0660 whereas bears may profit from a downside break of 1.0520. If Trump delivers details on his spending plans, we could see the euro free-falling against the dollar.

The British pound initially dropped against the dollar on reports that PM Theresa May’s team is preparing for Scotland to potentially call for an independence referendum. However, the impact was short-lived and the pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar. We still wait for a break below the important support at 1.2380 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2250. On the upside, the 1.2550/70 level remains a crucial resistance for sterling bulls.

Before Trump’s address to Congress, we will watch important economic data such as the U.S. GDP figures, due at 13:30 UTC, followed by Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you good trades!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co