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GBP Tests Support, What’s Next?

Dear Traders,

It came as it had to come in the GBP/USD: The British pound retreated from its highs and corrected some of its recent gains. Before yesterday’s pullback happened, we saw the pound touching a fresh post-Brexit high at 1.4377 but the U.K. employment report put an end to the cable’s rally. As we warned traders yesterday, the pullback was inevitable given the overbought situation in the GBP/USD. The job report was, however, generally positive and likely to keep the Bank of England on track to raise interest rates next month.

Today we have the U.K. Consumer Price Report scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. If inflation numbers come in weaker than expected, the pound could drop towards 1.4230/20. A significant break below 1.4220 could even open the door for a larger decline towards 1.4150. If the pound sterling is, however, able to gain ground above 1.43, buyers may take the opportunity to buy pounds at lower levels with a higher target at 1.4420.

The euro’s climb above 1.24 had been brief while the pair EUR/USD was unable to hold above that important threshold – at least for the time being. With the 1.24-barrier being a hart nut to crack, we now focus on the 1.2350-support which is equivalent to a rising trendline of the recent uptrend channel. Euro bulls should pay attention to a break above 1.2425 which could justify accelerated bullish momentum towards higher targets.

The Eurozone Consumer Price report is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but as long as there is no surprise in the headline figure, the report’s impact on the price action could be limited.

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British Pound: Further Gains Or Bearish Pullback Ahead?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the markets on Monday was the bullish breakout of the British pound, which soared to a high of 1.4088 after it broke above the psychological level of 1.40. The bullish breakout was triggered shortly after the announcement of an agreement on a transition plan for the period after Brexit. The big question among traders is now whether there could be further gains in the pound.

Today, we have U.K. Inflation numbers due for release at 9:30 UTC and the expectation is for a 2.8 percent read from previously 3 percent. A weaker reading could be an excuse for sterling bulls to take profit on long positions. In a nutshell, there is a risk of a bearish pullback if inflation disappoints.

GBP/USD: If the pound drops below the 1.40-barrier it may extend its slide towards 1.3950. On the topside, if the pound climbs back above 1.4050 it could extend its gains towards 1.41.

The euro was able to stabilize above 1.23 and appears to be heading towards 1.2370 now. For euro bulls it will be interesting whether the euro could also overcome the 1.24-hurdle in the near-term.

From the Eurozone we have the ZEW Survey scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC.

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Monetary Policy Speak And U.K. CPI Data Could Boost Risk Appetite

Dear Traders,

The price trend in both GBP/USD and EUR/USD remains disappointing overall. The price of the euro has barely changed with the currency pair still oscillating around 1.1670. The British pound found some halt near 1.3060 and ended the trading day above 1.31.

The lethargic market situation might soon come to an end as market participants brace for higher volatility ahead of today’s upcoming high-profile event. The Heads of the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England are scheduled to speak on a panel in Frankfurt at 10:00 UTC. Chances are slim that policymakers will reveal anything new that the market does not already know but traders should prepare for heightened volatility around this event. If none of today’s speakers touches on monetary policy, the round table discussion will be a non-event for traders.

Shortly before that, sterling traders will pay close attention to the U.K. Consumer Price Report at 9:30 UTC. If inflation data beats expectations the pound could soar towards 1.32 and 1.3250. On the bottom side we will wait for a break below 1.3020 and more importantly 1.30.

EUR/USD

In short-term time frames the euro seems to be primed for an upside breakout. If the price climbs above 1.1680 we may see some bullish continuation towards 1.1715/25. For bearish momentum to accelerate the single currency must significantly drop below 1.1640.

 

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Pound Falls On Fears Of Collapse Of Brexit, Focus Now On Inflation

Dear Traders,

Trading was relatively quiet on Monday with the EUR/USD trading within a narrow 40-pip range. The picture was different in the GBP/USD, which started the week with volatile swings ranging from a daily high of 1.3312 to a low of 1.3225. As mentioned in our analysis from Monday, the pound sterling is currently torn between rising inflation and thus, higher interest rates on the one side and Brexit uncertainty on the other side. Yesterday, the pound came under selling pressure on speculation that Brexit talks could break down, unless the European Union gives ground at a summit of EU leaders later this week. A person familiar with the matter said the entire Brexit process will be in danger of collapse as long as negotiations are failing to make progress. The pound fell to a low of 1.3225 on the concerns about the lack of progress.

The focus will now shift to the U.K. Consumer Price Report, due at 8:30 UTC followed by BoE Governor Carney’s appearance before congress at 10:15 UTC. We expect the GBP/USD to remain vulnerable to volatile swings while we currently see the chances in favor of further bearish movement towards 1.30. If the cable breaks above 1.33 again, it may head for a test of 1.34 but the upward movement could be limited as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the currency.

From the Eurozone we have the Consumer Price Report and ZEW Survey scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. These reports may have a short-lived impact on the euro.

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Sterling Traders Focus On U.K. CPI Data

Dear Traders,

We have seen a bit of a bearish reversal in EUR/USD Monday with the U.S. dollar recovering against the euro. Although yesterday’s slide in EUR/USD does not automatically mean that there will be a trend reversal, it should be noted that the technical picture may promise more downside momentum to come. If the euro falls below 1.1920 and further 1.1885 we could see a slide towards 1.1830. On the topside, buyers in the EUR/USD would first need to push the pair above 1.2030 in order to focus on higher targets at 1.21 and 1.2170.

The British pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback with GBP/USD remaining confined to a narrow trading range between 1.3225 and 1.3160. Traders await the U.K. CPI report, due for release at 8:30 UTC today and if inflation data shows an uptick in August, the Bank of England may feel pressure to turn away from its dovish monetary policy stance. This would be positive for the pound but most volatility is expected on Thursday when the BoE announces its rate decision and outlook on policy.

If the pound rises above 1.3225 we may see a run for 1.3265. We bear in mind that the August high is at 1.3268, so sellers may sweep in to sell pounds around that resistance level. On the downside, we expect a support to be at around 1.3050.

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U.S. Dollar Falls On Healthcare Reform Failure

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s trading was quiet for most of the day and both of our currency pairs fluctuated within narrow trading ranges. The big move occurred during the Asian session after two Republican senators said they oppose the Trump-backed healthcare reform bill, leaving it with insufficient votes for passage. The U.S. dollar fell sharply on signs the U.S. healthcare reform bill is effectively dead in its current form. Investors appear to be losing confidence in U.S. President Trump’s ability to deliver, not just on healthcare but on the rest of his revitalization agenda too.

EUR/USD surged to a high of 1.1538 and traders wonder whether the euro is on its way toward higher targets at 1.1565 and 1.1620. Let’s be surprised.

The German and Eurozone ZEW Survey are due for release at 9:00 UTC and could have a short-term impact on the euro.

GBP/USD rose in tandem with the greenback’s opponents and climbed back above 1.31. Whether the pound is able to maintain its high level remains to be seen but once 1.3120 is significantly broken, the chances are in favor of further bullish momentum. If the cable falls back below 1.3040 it could head for a test of the 1.30-support.

The U.K. Consumer Price Report scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC receives most attention and should be watched closely.

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Pound’s Upward Movement Could Be Limited

Dear Traders,

It has been a profitable trading day for sterling bears and so we were able to benefit from the fall in the pound while our short trade has hit all profit targets. The pound slid to a low of 1.2638 on political uncertainty following last week’s snap election.

The most important piece of U.K. data will be the Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. CPI data is expected to print 2.7 percent in May, unchanged from the prior month. A disappointing CPI figure could however increase the pressure on the pound.

GBP/USD

Watch out for higher resistances. From a technical perspective, there could be an upper barrier at around 1.2730/40, a level from where sellers may take the opportunity to sell pounds. If that barrier proves correct, we will shift our focus to the 1.2635-mark. A break of that support level may result in a steeper slide towards 1.2530.

The euro traded more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Monday. Germany’s ZEW survey, due for release at 9:00 UTC will draw euro traders’ attention. However, given the euro’s recent sideways trading range, gains might be limited until 1.1270/80.

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Euro And Pound Steady Ahead Of FOMC Decision

Dear Traders,

The British pound stabilized above 1.27 after touching a fresh low at 1.2635 on Friday. It seems that sterling at least temporarily reached bottom after Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party unexpectedly lost the majority in Thursday’s U.K. election. This makes Brexit negotiations with the EU more difficult, leading to new complications in the U.K. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy on Thursday but BoE policy makers are in no position to alter their course in the near-term. Sterling traders shall pay attention to the U.K. Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release on Tuesday. As long as GBP/USD trades above 1.27, we anticipate some upward movements towards 1.2850 and possibly even 1.2950. A significant decline below 1.27 could however open the door for further losses towards 1.26 and 1.24.

 

The highly anticipated FOMC decision on Wednesday is expected to end with a rate hike. How the U.S. dollar will trade, hinges however on the Fed forecasts for the second half of 2017. If the Federal Reserve calls for three rate hikes this year despite recent disappointing U.S. economic data outcomes, the greenback could strengthen. However, given the low probability the Fed will embark on an aggressive tightening cycle, traders should prepare for a weakening dollar, especially ahead of U.S. inflation data due to be released on Wednesday.

The EUR/USD traded little changed between 1.1215 and 1.1165. Technically, the recent sideways trading range is still unbroken and as long as there is no breakout either above 1.1285 or below 1.11, there is nothing new to report.

From the Eurozone, the most important piece of economic data will be the German ZEW survey scheduled for release on Tuesday morning.

 

With no major market drivers and given the typical seasonal lull in market activity, we do not expect exaggerated currency moves.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Will U.K. CPI Data Prompt Sterling Bulls For A Run For 1.30?

Dear Traders,

Euro bulls have regained control and pushed the EUR/USD up to a test of 1.10 this morning. Traders are now on the look-out for a sustained upside-break of that psychological level. If the euro breaks above 1.1023, the opening price following the first round of French elections, we see chances of a climb towards 1.1070. On the bottom side, we expect a current support to be around 1.09. The most important piece of Eurozone data this morning will be the Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. At the same time, the German ZEW Survey is due for release. Any upside surprises could translate into further euro strength.

The British pound found some halt near 1.2880 after an attempt to break the 1.2940-level has failed. All eyes will be on the Consumer Price report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and if inflation data is upbeat, the pound could trade higher targeting 1.2970 and 1.3020. Current support levels are however seen at 1.2860 and 1.28.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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GBP/USD: U.K. Inflation Report To Dictate Price Action

Dear Traders,

While the U.S. dollar ended the day virtually unchanged against the euro, it traded slightly lower versus the British pound Monday. Meanwhile, there were no new insights from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. She reiterated several previously stated positions when speaking at the University of Michigan. Yellen said she expected the U.S. economy to continue to grow at a moderate pace and that gradual interest rate increases “can get us where we need to be”. Fed policy makers expect two additional rate hikes in 2017.

The British pound recovered some losses and rose towards 1.2430. However, as long as the pound remains below 1.2450/70, we favor a bearish stance. For sterling to rally it would possibly require a break above 1.2480 and further 1.2505. Today’s price action will hinge on the U.K. inflation report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. If Consumer Price growth comes in with a downtick, sterling could fall towards 1.2340. Stronger inflation however, may encourage sterling bulls to push the currency beyond the 1.2470-level.

The euro trod water with the price reluctant to push above the 1.06-mark. Euro traders remain risk-averse ahead of the French elections and with no market-moving data on the calendar, the euro might continue to trade sideways within tight trading ranges. The German ZEW Survey is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but this report cannot be considered important enough to free the euro from its lethargy. In short-term time frames we expect the euro’s price action to be limited to a trading range of 1.0640 and 1.0530.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co