U.S. Job Report To Take Center Stage

Welcome to a new trading week which promises heightened market volatility, driven by high-impact risk events such as the European Central Bank decision, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress and the all-important U.S. payrolls.

Fed’s Powell will appear before Congress both on Wednesday and Thursday for his semiannual testimony. Traders will look for further insights into policymakers’ current thinking, the economic outlook and thus, the timing of rate cuts.

Also on Thursday the ECB will take the stage but no changes are expected. Recent weak European data could lead ECB policymakers to adopt a more dovish tone which would increase pressure on the euro. The longer the ECB waits to cut rates, the more painful the downturn might be, which is why a patient approach could force the central bank to cut rates even deeper later on.

The main event this week, however, will be the U.S. jobs report on Friday. Market participants expect another round of solid jobs numbers. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could delay the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. This would be positive for the U.S. dollar.


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Focus On U.K. Job Report, U.S. Retail Sales

Dear Traders,

Despite the upswing in the euro and British pound, Monday proved to be a fairly quiet trading day with any larger market moves lacking. While the upside potential in the EUR/USD was limited to a high of 1.1996, none of our daily signal entries was triggered in the GBP/USD. With the crucial 1.20-barrier remaining a hart nut to crack for euro bulls, the focus shifts back to the euro’s down trend and the next support around 1.19. If the single currency drops below 1.1880 we may see a continuation of the euro’s down move.

Revisions to the Eurozone GDP Q1 figures are scheduled for release along with the ZEW Surveys today at 9:00 UTC but both reports might take a backseat to the final April CPI release on Wednesday.

The British pound refrained from a sustained climb above 1.36 and fell back towards 1.3550.

On the data front, we have the U.K. jobs figures scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and these numbers have the potential to spark volatility in the pound, provided that the report surprises. Sterling traders should thus keep an eye on the job numbers this morning. Technically speaking, the GBP/USD still finds itself within a trading range between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. Looking for sustained breakouts, we will keep tabs on prices either above 1.3650 or below 1.3440.

From the U.S. we have Advance Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could have a short-term impact on the price action in the dollar.

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