Posts

Brexit Or Bremain? A Fateful Day

/in /by

Dear Traders,

This is a crucial day for the U.K. with Britain’s vote on membership of the European Union. The island nation will determine its future with or without the EU and the market is eagerly awaiting the decision. The voting booths are set to open at 7 a.m. London time, while first projections are likely to be announced during the evening hours.

The final outcome is anything but certain. Recent polls showed the ‘Remain’ camp being in the lead with 48 percent ‘Remain’ and 42 percent ‘Leave’.  The pound strengthened beyond 1.48 based on the assumption of a victory for the “Remain” campaign. But beware: Sterling is moving in tandem with bookmakers’ odds, while the chances of ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ are equal. The sentiment can therefore change very quickly at any time.

“Bremain” scenario: Traders should bear in mind that, even in the case of a pro-EU victory, unlimited upside swings won’t be a foregone conclusion. In other words, gains in the British pound could be limited as the focus will shift to the U.K. economy and the prospects of interest hikes in the aftermath of the vote. Since the Federal Reserve will be the first central bank to raise interest rates, the attention will switch to the U.S. dollar and the prospects of further Fed tightening. This fact may discourage investors to buy the pound unlimitedly.

“Brexit” scenario: In the event of an exit from the European Union, the pound will be vulnerable to huge losses as the consequences are incalculable. The market is currently pricing out a Brexit scenario which is why the market’s reaction on unexpected surprises could be excessive.

GBP/USD

Looking on the big picture, we see chances of an imminent trend reversal. Once the pound is able to climb above 1.4850, it could head for the next major resistance zone which we expect to be at 1.52-1.5350. Above 1.55 it could be tempting to anticipate a test of 1.60 but this would be the most optimistic forecast. However, in case of any negative headlines, the focus will be on the 1.40-support level. If sterling breaks below that level, it could easily fall towards 1.3840, 1.3550 or even lower.

Chart_GBP_USD_Weekly_snapshot23.6.16

EUR/USD

Upcoming breakout? The euro traded with a tailwind, heading for a renewed test of 1.1350. In the light of the highly anticipated result of the U.K. vote traders should prepare for volatile swings in this pair. Above 1.1365 we see a higher likelihood of further bullish momentum, driving the euro towards 1.14 and 1.1440. Above 1.1470 it may head for 1.1520 and 1.1615. Bear in mind, that like the British pound, upswings might be limited as the focus will shift back to Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations in the aftermath of the vote. Extended upswings might be subject to a possible short squeeze which could be short-lived.

Below 1.1280 next lower targets could be at 1.1220 and 1.1160. Below 1.1150 the euro could drop towards 1.10 and even as low as 1.0830.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot23.6.16

It all depends on the results of the Bexit vote and we prepare for large movements to either side. We recommend traders to trade cautiously during the day as wild swings may wipe out open trades, making trading highly risky.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Brexit oder EU-Verbleib? Ein Schicksalstag für das Vereinigte Königreich

/in /by

Liebe Trader,

dies ist ein entscheidender Tag für das Vereinigte Königreich, denn der Inselstaat entscheidet heute über seine Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union und somit über die Zukunft mit oder ohne die EU. Der Markt erwartet mit Spannung die Entscheidung. Die Wahllokale eröffnen heute um 7:00 Uhr Ortszeit, wobei die ersten Hochrechnungen wohl erst in den Abendstunden bekannt gegeben werden.

Das finale Ergebnis ist indes alles andere als sicher. Die letzten Umfragen zeigten das ‚Verbleib‘ Lager in Führung mit 48 Prozent für die EU-Befürworter im Gegensatz zu 42 Prozent für die EU-Gegner. Das Pfund erweiterte seine Gewinne jenseits der 1.48-Marke aufgrund der Annahme die Verbleib Kampagne könnte letztendlich siegen. Jedoch ist Vorsicht geboten: Sterling bewegt sich synchron mit den Quoten der Buchmacher, während die Gewinnchancen für beide Seiten weiterhin gleich sind. Das Sentiment kann sich somit zu jeder Zeit sehr schnell verändern.

„Bremain“ Szenario (EU Verbleib): Trader sollten hierbei berücksichtigen, dass, selbst im Falle eines Sieges der EU Befürworter, unbegrenzte Aufwärtsbewegungen keine ausgemachte Sache sind. Mit anderen Worten, könnten Gewinne im Britischen Pfund und Euro begrenzt bleiben, da der Fokus sich sofort nach der Wahl wieder der U.K. Wirtschaft und den Aussichten auf weitere Zinserhöhungen seitens der Federal Reserve richten wird. Da die Fed die erste Zentralbank sein wird, welche die Zinsen weiter anhebt, wird die Aufmerksamkeit dann wieder dem U.S. Dollar gewidmet. Diese Tatsache könnte Investoren davon abhalten massenhaft Käufe im Pfund und Euro zu tätigen.

„Brexit“ Szenario (EU Austritt): Im Falle eines Austritts aus der EU könnten die Währungen für massive Verluste anfällig sein, denn die Konsequenzen sind unkalkulierbar. Der Markt preist momentan einen möglichen Brexit aus, ein Grund dafür warum die Reaktion, im Falle von unerwarteten Überraschungen, überschießend sein könnte.

GBP/USD

Werfen wir einen Blick auf das Gesamtbild, so besteht die Möglichkeit einer bevorstehenden Trendumkehr. Kann das Pfund die 1.4850-Marke überwinden, so könnte es danach weiter bergauf gehen in Richtung der nächsten wichtigen Widerstandszone bei 1.52-1.5350. Oberhalb von 1.55 könnte es verlockend sein, einen Test von 1.60 zu antizipieren, jedoch wäre dies die optimistischste Vorhersage. Im umgekehrten Fall von negativen Schlagzeilen, richtet sich der Fokus wieder auf die 1.40-Unterstützung. Falls Sterling unterhalb jenes Levels ausbricht, so könnte es danach zügig bergab gehen gen 1.3840, 1.3550 oder sogar tiefer.

Chart_GBP_USD_Weekly_snapshot23.6.16

EUR/USD

Bevorstehender Ausbruch? Der Euro handelte mit Rückenwind in Richtung eines erneuten Tests von 1.1350. Aufgrund der hohen Erwartungen im Vorfeld des Ergebnisses der U.K. Wahl sollten sich Trader auf volatile Schwingungen in diesem Paar einstellen. Oberhalb von 1.1365 sehen wir Chancen auf weitere bullische Dynamik, welche den Euro bis 1.14 und 1.1440 steigen lassen könnte. Oberhalb von 1.1470 könnte es sogar bis 1.1520 und 1.1615 gehen. Berücksichtigt werden sollte, dass genauso wie im Britischen Pfund, Aufwärtsbewegungen womöglich begrenzt sein könnten. Der Fokus wird sich im Nachhinein wieder den Zinserwartungen widmen. Ausgiebige Aufwärtsbewegungen könnten eher eine Folge von einem kurzfristigen sogenannten „Short-Squeeze“ sein, welcher von kurzer Dauer sein könnte.

Unterhalb von 1.1280 wären tiefere Ziele bei 1.1220 und 1.1160 möglich. Unterhalb von 1.1150 könnte der Euro bis 1.10 und sogar bis zu einem Tief von 1.0830 absacken.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot23.6.16

Es hängt alles von dem Ergebnis des Referendums ab und wir werden uns auf große Bewegungen zu jeglicher Seite einstellen. Wir raten Tradern zur Vorsicht im Vorfeld der Hochrechnungen, denn wilde Schwingungen können offene Trades leicht ausradieren, was das Trading heute hoch-riskant macht.

Signale können abonniert werden unter:

https://www.maimar.co/signals/

Verfolgen Sie unsere täglichen kostenfreien Signale unter:

https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Vorteile für Signalabonnenten:

  • Zusendung der börsentäglichen Signale ab ca. 8:00 Uhr via E-Mail.
  • Zugang zu den Live-Signals Updates auf unserer Webseite (Professional Service)

(wann wird ein Trade nachgezogen, wann wird nicht mehr eingestiegen, wann wird über Nacht laufen gelassen, wann wird Risiko raus genommen, wann wird mehr riskiert usw.) So müssen Sie nicht die ganze Zeit den Chart beobachten.

  • Profitieren Sie durch unsere Erfahrung, wir geben all unser Wissen an Kunden weiter um das bestmögliche Ergebnis zu erzielen.
  • Gesammeltes Brokerwissen durch den zweitgrößten Finanzplatz Zypern. Wir beraten Kunden worauf man bei der Brokerwahl achten sollte.
  • Die Signale werden dem Markt stetig angepasst, haben so den Vorteil gegenüber Expert Advisern, welche erst neu codiert und somit neu gekauft werden müssen.

Viel Erfolg und beste Grüße von Zypern

Maimar-FX

www.maimar.co

Sie handeln auf Ihr eigenes Risiko. Jegliche Haftung der Autoren dieses Artikels ist ausgeschlossen.

Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr.

MaiMarFX © 2016

 

 

Fasten Your Seatbelt For The Most Important (Volatile) Week Of The Year

/in /by

Dear Traders,

This week is the most important week of the year with Thursday’s U.K. referendum paving the way for new trends in the market. The British pound jumped to a high of 1.4624 on eased concerns about the Brexit vote. The euro benefited from that optimistic tone and rose towards 1.14 on increased risk appetite.

The first poll taken after the murder of UK lawmaker Jo Cox showed the ‘Remain’ camp is gaining ground. The tragic death of pro-EU supporter Cox shifted some support back to ‘Remain’ and helped the pound and euro to recover from their lows. However, traders should be careful ahead of Thursday’s vote as volatility is likely to remain extremely high and large fluctuations in both directions are possible.

Ahead of the U.K. vote, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday but no one expects her to reveal anything new about the guidance of future rate hikes. Policymakers are likely to wait for the outcome of the U.K. vote before setting the right course.

Traders should prepare for a volatile week in the Forex market and should bear in mind that anything can happen. We are curious to see how the market reacts and wish all traders many profitable trades.

EUR/USD

The euro rallied towards the upper bound of its recent downtrend channel. Once this barrier is significantly breached to the upside, the next important price level will be the crucial resistance zone at 1.14-1.1450. In search of attractive buying opportunities, the 1.1465- level may serve as a profitable long-entry. Above that level, the euro may head for a test of 1.15. Above 1.1530 it could even rally towards 1.1750. For the time being, we see a current support around the 1.13-level. Below 1.1230 the euro could drop back to 1.1130.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot20.6.16

GBP/USD

Looking at larger time frames, the pound sterling is still trading within its range between 1.4750 and 1.40. We expect high-volatile swings ahead of Thursday’s referendum but as long as the currency pair remains confined to that range, there is no new trend. Let’s wait and see.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot20.6.16

 

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Massive Increase In Volatility: Sterling Jumps 180 Pips This Morning

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Watch out for extreme volatility in the British pound with only two weeks to go before the U.K. referendum. Today’s sharp rise demonstrates the enormous potential despite uncertainties surrounding the U.K. vote. Only this morning we saw a higher likelihood for upcoming bullish momentum if the cable was able to break above 1.4480 but the cable came up first with its strong upward move before we published today’s analysis. The British pound has soared within seconds by 180 pips towards a high of 1.4661 but was not able to hold onto its huge gains. The currency pair remains vulnerable to high-volatile swings and traders should be prepared for huge breakouts at any time.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will Draghi Liberate The Euro From Its Narrow Trading Range?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We can call the latest FOMC minutes a non-event for traders as the minutes revealed nothing fundamentally new. Several Federal Reserve policy makers argued against an April interest rate hike while some favored it. Although the minutes reflect inconsistency in terms of the timing of rate hikes, the Fed’s fundamental stance remains more hawkish than dovish. All Fed officials agreed on the relative health of the U.S. economy amidst persistent global risks. Nonetheless, several officials advocated a cautious approach as they worried that slowing global growth could hurt U.S. exports and reduce corporate investments.

While market participants see no chance of an April hike the odds increase slightly for a June hike but first top 50 percent for a rate increase in December. The market has a difficulty in pricing in rate hikes for 2016 but if future U.S. data show that the economy continues to improve, the dollar will begin to rally.

The British pound confirmed its bearish bias and showed that there is still room for a further decline ahead of the upcoming U.K. referendum in June. The currency pair tested the 1.40-support but was able to recover most of its losses towards the end of the day. For any bullish engagements the 1.4175-level should be of primary interest as a break above that level could send the pound towards 1.4230. However the trend is down and if GBP falls back below 1.4080, we could see another dip lower.

The euro is still captured between 1.1430 and 1.13 and every attempt to break significantly above 1.14 has resulted in a reversal. Once the 1.1440-level has been breached to the upside we might see an attempt to test the 1.1480/1.15 level. However, if the pair remains below 1.14 we will favor a bearish stance and focus again on a break below 1.1335 and further 1.13. A break below 1.1285 could drive the euro as low as 1.1240/20.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot7.4.16

The most important risk event for the euro will be the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi in a meeting at the Council of State in Lisbon, Portugal. The speech is scheduled for around 14:00 GMT. The risk for the euro is to the downside as Draghi might take the opportunity to put pressure on the common currency.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro and Sterling Rose Against The Greenback

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound traded higher against the greenback Monday. The best performing currency pair was the cable, which experienced a short squeeze and broke through all recent resistance-levels. A next resistance is seen at 1.4470/75 and if sterling is able to break above that level, we may see a test of 1.45. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the U.K. referendum, which is possible as early as June, the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. Current support levels are seen at 1.4350, 1.4310, 1.4240 and 1.4180.

The EUR/USD flirted with the 1.09-barrier  but as long as there is no sustained break above 1.0915/25, the euro may drop back towards 1.0840 and 1.0810. On the upper side, the 1.0955/60-level remains in focus and euro-bulls should wait for prices above that level.

Meanwhile, ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s plan to review its stimulus program in March and thus confirmed its dovish tilt. The euro is therefore more vulnerable to losses going into the next monetary policy meeting in March.

The German Unemployment report is scheduled for release at 8:55 GMT which could have a short-term impact on the euro if numbers surprise to the upside.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI, due for release at 9:30 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will FOMC Statement Pose A Risk To Dollar Bulls?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story Friday was the sharp rise in the GBP/USD. After hitting a fresh five-year low at 1.4079 on Thursday, the currency pair rallied towards 1.4365 despite Friday’s weaker-than expected retail sales report. The rise can be attributed to the result of profit-taking after the recent linear decline in the British pound. The cable now faces the 1.4250/30 support-area once again but as long as the pair remains trading above that zone we expect some possible upward swings which may occur in the near-term (see technical analysis below).

The most important piece of U.K. economic data will be Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release on Thursday and if data disappoints to the downside, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses again. On Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney appears in Parliament to speak on financial-stability risks and a major topic could be the U.K. referendum on its membership in the EU and a potential “Brexit“.

The EUR/USD trended slightly lower, moving around the 1.08 support level. For the time being, we anticipate the 1.0770-level to be the next support before a renewed downswing toward 1.0730/15. On the upper side, we see current resistance-levels at 1.0835 and 1.0860.

The most important piece of Eurozone data this week will be the German IFO report, due for release at 9:00 GMT today. If IFO numbers fall short of expectations, the euro could tumble toward lower targets. Furthermore, German Consumer Prices are scheduled for release on Thursday.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is not expected to alter its monetary policy and there will be no press conference, the statement could fail to add further strength to the U.S. dollar. Rather, the risk for the USD is to the downside, in case the FOMC statement turns out to be more dovish, suggesting a rate hike in March is less likely.

Further important U.S. economic reports are due for release with Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), Durable Goods Orders (Thursday) and U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Friday).

GBP/USD

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see that there could be some upside room after a break of 1.4365. A next bullish target could be at 1.4420/45 with a possible extension until 1.4470. However a current support-zone is seen at 1.4250/30 and if the cable falls again below that level, we expect bearish momentum to accelerate towards 1.4170 and 1.4130.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot25.1.16

 

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Corrections In The USD Are Likely To Be Short-Lived

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The biggest story yesterday was the euro which rose against the U.S. dollar and traded well above 1.09. The reason for the correction can be attributed to positioning. Hedge funds reduced their dollar long positions on speculations the Federal Reserve will wait until at least April to raise interest rates again. However, we expect the dollar to resume its uptrend within the first months of the new year, but it might be difficult for dollar bulls to extend gains far beyond the 1.05-area in the EUR/USD. For the time being we expect the currency pair to remain range-bound between 1.0950/85 and 1.0810.

The British pound was accompanied by a slight bearish bias but remained firm above the 1.4875-area. In a next step, the pair will need to break the 1.4860-mark to the downside in order to gain further downward momentum. A reason for the GBP’s recent weakness is the Bank of England’s dovish monetary policy outlook. The BoE signaled the need for tighter policy is less immediate. Moreover, the U.K. Referendum on Britain’s European Union membership, which may take place as early as June, is weighing on the pound. The referendum could damp oversees investment into the U.K.. Consequently, the risk is to the downside. GBP may find a next support at around 1.4810/20. Below 1.4780 lower targets will be at 1.47, 1.4640 and 1.4590.

Today’s focus will be on U.S. data such as Personal Consumption, GDP revisions and Existing Home Sales. If data disappoints to the downside, we could see a slump in the USD.

9:30 UK Public Sector Borrowing

13:30 USA GDP & Personal Consumption

15:00 USA Existing Home Sales

(Timezone: GMT)

This is our last trading day of this year. We look forward to a successful year in 2016 and will continue to share many more profitable strategies with our subscribers.

We wish you all a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co