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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.30

Dear Traders,

Sellers in the GBP/USD remained in control after the U.K. CPI fell short of expectations. The soft inflation report is making a BoE rate hike next month less likely than previously expected. The pound tested the 1.3010-mark but was later able to stabilize above 1.3050. Higher resistances could now come in at 1.3150 and 1.3230. As long as the pound remains below 1.3230 we may see a dip towards 1.2950.

Sterling traders may keep an eye on U.K. Retail Sales today at 8:30 UTC.

For day traders of the EUR/USD there was nothing to gain Wednesday. The euro fell victim to a strengthening dollar but losses were limited to the 1.16-handle. As long as 1.16 holds we expect the pair to trade between 1.1720 and 1.1620.

Given the liquidity drain, traders should bear in mind that trading conditions could be challenging during the summer months. A proper risk management is therefore indispensable.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Profitable Sell-Off In EUR/USD And GBP/USD

Dear Traders,

After several days of sluggish price fluctuations, yesterday has proved to be a profitable trading day in particular for short traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The British pound continued its slide versus the U.S. dollar on the back of worse-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The annual CPI fell to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent while the core CPI fell to 2.1 from 2.3 percent. Lower inflation could keep interest rates lower for longer with the Bank of England being in no rush to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. Thus, BoE rate hike expectations are pushed back to November.

The pound marked a fresh support at 1.3305 from where a slight recovery started. As long as pullbacks are limited to 1.34 and 1.3450, sterling bears might retain control.

The euro fell below 1.17 after the weak PMI reading put further pressure on the single currency. We now focus on the 1.1810-level which could act as a short-term resistance. A break below 1.1650 could open the door for further losses towards 1.1620 and 1.1550.

The FOMC Minutes had only a limited impact on the dollar’s price action. With the markets widely anticipating a Fed rate hike in June the minutes were not expected to reveal anything new. The only note in the statement that weighed on the dollar was that “it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2 percent”.

Today we have U.K. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. Furthermore, BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at the BoE Markets Forum in London.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Slumps On Disappointing Inflation Data

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the Forex market on Wednesday was the sharp drop of the British pound. The pound extended its losses towards 1.4170 following the release of disappointing U.K. inflation data. Inflation fell to 2.5 percent, the lowest level in a year and investors fear that the lower reading could encourage Bank of England policy makers to postpone an imminent rate hike in May. Consequently, expectations for a rate hike next month dropped to a 65 percent probability, down from 87 percent.

GBP/USD

From a technical perspective, we saw the pound rushing through a previous support-area between 1.4250 and 1.4220 which turned into a current resistance now. A lower support now comes in at around 1.4145. However, traders should bear in mind that the overall uptrend is still intact and with the next BoE meeting (and a potential rate hike) still three weeks away, buyers may take the opportunity to buy pounds at lower levels.

We will keep tabs on a price range between 1.4250 and 1.4140 now. If the pound breaks out of that range we might see momentum accelerating to the respective direction. A lower support is seen at 1.4090, whereas for the bullish bias to resume it would need a renewed break above 1.4315.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due for release today at 8:30 UTC.

In contrast to the high volatility in the GBP/USD, we have seen a lackluster price development in the EUR/USD. The pair is still range-bound and this long period of range (three months already) has discouraged many traders from trading the EUR/USD. However, there have been some profitable trading opportunities but larger swings tend to be rare at the moment.

We are still looking for an upside break of the 1.24-barrier and if that breakout happens our patience could pay off. Based on the recent uptrend channel we expect a higher bullish target to come in at around 1.2470. Bears in the EUR/USD should, however, wait for a significant break below 1.23.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Potential U.S. Government Shutdown And Germany’s Coalition Talks In Focus

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar continues to disappoint dollar bulls while being unable to find its footing against other major currencies. Market participants remain focused on the political risk potential around the U.S. government shutdown, which could take effect at the end of today’s trading day if no budget deal is reached. With developments in Washington being the primary focus, the dollar could remain under pressure.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 15:00 UTC, but this report might only have a limited impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling gained further ground against the dollar and seems to be well on track to recover its post-Brexit referendum losses. The GBP/USD followed the recent uptrend and climbed back above 1.39 after finding fresh support at 1.38. If the pound holds above 1.3850 we could see a bullish run for 1.40 and possibly 1.4040.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due at 9:30 UTC today and could have a minor impact on the pound’s price action.

The Euro held above 1.22 but traders should be aware of profit-taking ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting next week. There is increased speculation that ECB President Draghi will seek to talk the Euro lower following its rapid appreciation. Apart from the ECB’s monetary policy, there will be a vote by the Social Democrats in Germany to begin talks regarding a grand coalition this weekend. If the SPD votes against a coalition the euro could suffer a setback.

From a technical perspective we keep tabs on the 1.2350-level which could serve as a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. Euro bears should however wait for prices below 1.2190 in order to expect accelerating bearish momentum.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Euro Traders Profit From Weakening U.S. Dollar

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar is taking its cue from political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration. In times of political uncertainty and unpredictability in the U.S., many investors got rid of their dollar positions which contribute to the recent dollar weakness. The euro, in return, benefited from the weakening greenback and rose towards 1.1175. There is no major resistance until 1.12, so euro bulls may tend to test that level before taking profits on euro long positions. Following the strong rally in the EUR/USD and four consecutive days of higher highs the pair finds itself in overbought territory, a fact that increases the likelihood of near-term corrections.

While we see a next hurdle at around 1.12, a break above 1.1220 could push the euro even higher towards 1.13. However, traders should now prepare for potential corrections. Current support levels are seen at 1.11, 1.1080 and 1.1020.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release from the Eurozone but it might be worth watching ECB President Draghi‘s remarks on monetary policy when he speaks in Tel Aviv at 17:00 UTC.

The pound sterling was accompanied by a slight upward tilt, even if the 1.30-resistance level still remains unbroken. Once that level is breached to the upside, we could see sterling rising towards 1.3040 and possibly even 1.3120.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the price action in the cable. If the pound drops back below 1.2930 it could find a next halt at around 1.2870.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Steady Ahead Of French Elections – The Calm Before The Storm?

Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after the euro had risen to a high of 1.0777 whereas the cable had rejected the 1.2850-resistance. The limited upward movement was due to a slight increase in the dollar after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spread optimism that the Trump administration is close to bringing forward major tax reform. He said the White House will unveil a tax plan “very soon”.

Meanwhile, the euro held steady above 1.07 after a police officer was killed in Paris just days before France’s presidential election starts. The incident could have an impact on the outcome of the first round of the election on Sunday since the Islamic State is claiming responsibility for the attack.

Polling is suggesting it will be a close call between independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. The two leading candidates will run off in a winner-takes-all contest on May 7.

EUR/USD- The calm before the storm?

The euro performed quite resiliently ahead of the most tightly contested elections in France.

On a technical basis, we will focus on a current trading range between 1.0740 and 1.0680. A renewed break above 1.0740 may boost bullish momentum until a fresh high at 1.08. We would speak of a bullish breakout in case the euro climbs above 1.0820. A higher target could be at 1.0950. However, below 1.0680/70 we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.0640 and 1.06. A break below 1.0590 could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

The British pound was unable to take the hurdle at 1.2850 and dropped back below 1.28. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading between 1.2860 and 1.2770 we do not pay much attention to the cable’s price action. A break below 1.2770 would shift the focus to lower targets near 1.27 and 1.26 whereas it would need a sustained break above 1.2860 to spark bullish momentum towards 1.2950.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and will draw traders’ attention.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Weakness Continues

Dear Traders,

The greenback continued to weaken against the euro and British pound. While the euro was Thursday’s best performer, rising towards 1.0680 and providing euro bulls a good profit, there was less consistency in the performance of the pound sterling. The pound traded sideways after peaking at 1.2524 and buyers had to be content with a modest profit. U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the pound.

Apart from the second-tier U.K. Retail Sales report, there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus, the price action might be oriented towards resistance- and support levels. Let’s have a look at the current important price levels:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.0705

1.0750

1.0775

1.0630

1.06

1.0550

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2550

1.26

1.2675

1.2440

1.2410

1.2330

We wish you a relaxing weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Risk-Off Mode Before Trump’s Inauguration

Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s trading was not to our liking and euro traders in particular, had to struggle with loss-making price swings. A trading idea’s success often depends on the details and so we finally had to record losses with our short entry in the EUR/USD mainly because we have set our profit target 5 pips too low. However, although such days are challenging they are part of trading.

The euro tested the 1.06-support which proved able to withstand yesterday’s downward pressure. For the euro to ignite fresh bearish momentum traders should now wait for prices below 1.0580. On the upside, the 1.0750-level remains interesting and may limit potential gains in the EUR/USD. A break above 1.0760 however, could prompt bulls to buy euros towards 1.08 and 1.0850.

Meanwhile, the ECB announcement proved to be a non-event for traders as Mario Draghi refrained from commenting on interesting topics such as tapering, Trump or Brexit. With no changes to the ECB’s monetary policy course and the lack of new statements the meeting was of minor importance.

The pound sterling traded firmly above 1.2280 while gains have been capped at 1.2340. Only during the Asian session the pound was finally able to overcome the 1.2350-level. We will now focus on a break above 1.2370 which may drive the pound towards 1.2440. Above 1.2460 we see a next hurdle at 1.25. Sterling bears shall however focus on important support levels at 1.22 and 1.2150. If the pound drops below these levels we expect accelerated bearish momentum.

Traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Retail Sales report due at 9:30 UTC which could have a short-term impact on the pound.

Risk-off mode in the market before Trump’s inauguration 

Investors stayed on the sidelines in view of the market uncertainties. The dollar rally faded as market participants remember that there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the unpredictable Trump administration. Only time will tell what the new U.S. president has to offer.

Traders will look to Trump’s inauguration speech for further details that may shape the dollar’s outlook over the coming months. We expect high volatility in the markets when the speech is due at around 17:00 UTC. Let’s be surprised.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Market May Underestimate The Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Dear Traders,

Despite the relatively low volatility in the currency market the U.S. dollar appreciated against all other major currencies. Trading conditions in the EUR/USD were overall quiet and short-traders had to be satisfied with smaller profits. Given the low volatility environment before the Easter break we do not expect the euro to show larger movements today even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and forecasts point to a decline in the headline figure, which may trigger short-term pullbacks in the greenback.

Unlike the euro the GBP/USD showed more volatile swings which have unfortunately resulted in two false breakouts before sterling was able to break below 1.4150. According to the saying “all good things come in threes” a third sell order would have finally hit all profit targets but as we always abide by our trading rules we missed out on that profitable downward move.

Having digested the recent terror attacks in Brussels the interest of investors is once again increasingly directed towards the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Comments from Fed speakers seem to be suggesting a more hawkish outlook for interest rates than the market is currently pricing in. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in an interview yesterday that policy makers should consider an interest rate increase at their next meeting in April. He sees the case for a move in April if another strong jobs report confirms that the labor market is improving, underlining the unchanged economic outlook and prospects for higher inflation. Bullard stressed that the committee might “raise rates more rapidly later on” if unemployment exceeds targets. Fed officials will now “look at April and see what the data looks like” when the next meet on April 26-27.

The focus will therefore shift to March Nonfarm payrolls data due for release next Friday April 1. As a rate hike next month has not been priced in, the dollar could rally strongly if the jobs report is strong.

U.K. Retail Sales (9:30 GMT) and U.S. Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) are due for release today and could trigger the last volatile swings this week.

GBP/USD: Technically we see current resistances at 1.4155 and 1.4190, whereas lower support levels could be at 1.4035 and 1.40.

EUR/USD: Amidst low volatility conditions we see current resistances at 1.1205 and 1.1235. However, lower supports are seen at 1.1135 and 1.1110.

Please note that we will not provide any signal alerts on Good Friday and Easter Monday. We will be back on Tuesday, March 29.

We wish you a very Happy Easter!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Back In Focus: CPI To Determine Direction

Dear Traders,

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced short breakouts of their recent trading ranges but ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar. While the euro dropped below the 1.11-level the pair was able to stop its fall just slightly above the current support at 1.1070. The cable, however, traded higher on hopes the UK could reach a deal with the EU on terms of Britain’s membership. As negotiations could last for some time before reaching an agreement and even then, Brexit concerns are not off the table, the pound could be vulnerable to larger losses at any time.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Retail Sales report scheduled for release along with Public Finances at 9:30 GMT. Retail sales are forecast to show an increase and if figures beat expectations, GBP could head for a renewed test of 1.44 and further 1.4425 and 1.4445. Below 1.4270 we favor a bearish stance, shifting the focus to lower levels at 1.4250 and 1.42.

The euro bounced back from the 1.1070-level and climbed above 1.11 again. Whether the common currency is able to stay above that level remains to be seen and could hinge on the appetite for U.S. dollars. U.S. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT and if CPI data surprise to the upside the greenback could rally in response. Bear in mind that a break below 1.1070 could send the euro quickly towards 1.1050 and 1.0990. Current resistances are seen at 1.1150 and 1.12.

We wish you many green pips and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co