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Will The U.S. Dollar Resume Its Rally This Week?

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Anxiety about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot eased and the market returned back to a sleepy sideways consolidation mode while volatility receded. The only market-moving event risk this week could be the June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Economists expect that payrolls have risen by 700K in June after disappointing payrolls growth in April and May. However, while predictions in both previous months were also well above the actual figures, payrolls forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt. The lifting of pandemic-related restrictions in June, however, could have boosted new employment. This means that there could be more upside potential for the U.S. dollar in the run-up to the report.

EUR/USD: The pair stuck in a tight trading range between 1.1975 and 1.1910. Above 1.1980 we may see a test of 1.20 but with potential catalysts lacking, chances are in favor of fresh bearish momentum with the dollar may gaining traction ahead of Friday’s job report. A break below 1.1910 could reignite bearish momentum towards 1.1870 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: After the 1.40-level has proved as a resistance, the focus is on a break below the 1.38-support with a next lower target at around 1.3750.

DAX: Recently, the index didn’t see any significant movements within its uptrend channel. We continue to look at a price range between 15900 and 15400.

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FOMC Event: Kurslevel auf die geachtet werden sollte

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Heute wird ein wichtiger Handelstag für Trader sein, denn dies könnte der letzte Handelstag vor der Sommerflaute sein, welcher größere Bewegungen bietet.

Alle Augen werden sich auf die Federal Reserve Entscheidung um 20:00 Uhr richten, gefolgt von Fed Präsident Jerome Powells Pressekonferenz 30 Minuten später.

Das Basis-Szenario ist dovisch: Auch wenn die U.S. Arbeitsmarktdaten solide waren, so hat die Fed dennoch nicht den erhofften Jobzuwachs von mehr als einer Million gesehen, welcher eventuell eine Kondition erfüllt hätte, um mit der Reduzierung des geldpolitischen Stimulus zu beginnen. Stattdessen fielen die Arbeitsmarktdaten der Monate April und Mai hinsichtlich der vorigen Prognosen eher enttäuschend aus, was das Argument der Fed untermauert, dass der Job Markt noch weit entfernt sei von „wesentlichen Fortschritten“. Die Fed könnte daher auf weitere Verbesserungen warten um mit der Straffungsdebatte zu beginnen. In diesem Fall, könnte der U.S. Dollar fallen aufgrund der Enttäuschung.

Die hawkische Überraschung: In dem unwahrscheinlichen Fall eines Beginns der Diskussion über die Reduzierung der Anleihekäufe wird der Greenback gegenüber anderen Gegenspielern steigen.

Der Fokus wird zudem auf den Dot-Plot Zinserwartungen liegen. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Prognose zu einer früheren Zinsanhebung in 2023 tendiert, anstelle von 2024 aus der letzten März Prognose. Dies wäre dollar-positiv.

Werfen wir einen kurzen Blick auf das technische Bild:

GBP/USD

Das Pfund rutsche unter 1.4070, konnte sich jedoch stabil oberhalb von 1.40 halten. Bleibt die 1.40-Unterstützung intakt, so rechnen wir mit einer Erholung in Richtung von 1.4150. Damit es zu signifikanten Kursausbrüchen kommt, müssten wir einen bullischen Anstieg über 1.42 oder einen bärischen Fall unter 1.40 sehen. Oberhalb von 1.42 richtet sich dann der Fokus auf ein höheres Ziel bei 1.4290, wohingegen unterhalb von 1.40 nächste Ziele bei 1.3920 und 1.38 liegen könnten.

EUR/USD: Es hat sich in diesem Paar nicht viel verändert und solange der Euro zwischen 1.2230 und 1.2080 handelt, gibt es für uns nichts Neues zu berichten. Ein Ausbruch oberhalb von 1.2250 könnte die Tür zu weiteren Gewinnen Richtung 1.2350 öffnen, wohingegen auf der Unterseite ein Unterschreiten von 1.2080 zu weiteren Verlusten Richtung 1.20 und eventuell sogar 1.1940 führen könnte.

Wir wünschen allen gute Trades heute.

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U.S. Dollar Remains Unmoved Ahead of The FOMC Meeting

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The U.S. dollar ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the British pound after the support around 1.4070 has proved to hold – at least for now.

Trading was also relatively quiet in the EUR/USD with the pair fluctuating within a narrow 40-pips-range between 1.2130 and 1.2095. The performance of this pair will now mainly hinge on the demand for U.S. dollars.

DAX: The index tested the 15800-mark while our long entry proved profitable. We now see a next hurdle at 15850 which needs to be broken before the focus shifts towards higher targets. On the downside, we see a current support at around 15500.

Today at 12:30 UTC we will keep an eye on the U.S. Retail Sales report which could impact the greenback ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

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Will The U.S. Dollar’s Rebound Continue?

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The U.S. dollar rebounded on Friday while short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to book a good profit with both major currency pairs declining towards crucial support levels. We will have a look at the technical picture further below.

This week, all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve meeting with the Fed’s policy decision and press conference due on Wednesday. The market is unanimous: The Fed will reaffirm that its ultra-loose policy remains appropriate, and that it is too soon to start the taper talk. While this might be the case at the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday, chances are slightly in favor of a modestly stronger U.S. dollar. Economists predict that policy makers won’t signal scaling back monetary stimulus until the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in late August but the quarterly rate-forecast “dot-plot” could show at least one rate increase in 2023. By way of reminder, the Fed’s forecast in March showed no liftoff until 2024. Such change would be slightly more hawkish. In a nutshell, it will be hard for the Fed to be more dovish than the market currently expects. But if there is a hawkish surprise, the greenback will soar with market participants rushing pricing in the shift.

Is the shift in monetary policy starting? To be sure, the shift is still conditional.

Fed policy makers continue to insist that higher inflation is unlikely to persist as it reflects bottlenecks as the economy rebounds from the pandemic. As for the labor market, recent weaker-than-expected job data strengthen the Fed’s wait-and-see approach.

Economists are therefore split on when the tapering announcement is most likely. One-third predict August, another third September and the last third December.

EUR/USD

The euro posted an almost linear decline until the 1.21-support last Friday. If we now see a break below 1.2080, the focus shifts to the lower support at 1.20. For the euro to resume its primary uptrend, it would need a sustained break above 1.2250.

GBP/USD

We see a mesh of support and resistance lines in the cable’s chart. Given the recent downward movement we see a next support zone between 1.4080 and 1.4060. Below 1.4070 we could see the pair drifting towards the crucial 1.40-support. On the topside, the 1.42-resistance needs to be broken before shifting the focus towards a higher target at 1.4280.

Trading could be muted at the beginning of this week with a number of holidays including Australia and China. Have a good start to the new week everyone.

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Quiet Trading: Waiting For Larger Fluctuations

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The U.S. GDP expanded at a 6.4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, supporting the Fed’s strong assessment of the economy. In addition, President Joe Biden’s proposal of two additional spending plans would infuse trillions more dollars into the U.S. economy over the next decade. The U.S. dollar, however, ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against its peers.

The DAX turned negative after failing to overcome the 15340-mark and slid below 15100. As long as the crucial 15000-support holds, we will keep an eye on the index’s recent sideways trend but if it breaks below 14950, traders should expect further losses.

The technical picture in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD has not changed since yesterday and it remains to be seen whether the support levels at 1.21 and 1.38 will hold.

Have a beautiful weekend.

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No Love For The U.S. Dollar

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U.S. retail sales increased by 9.8 percent in March, which was the second-largest increase in government data back to 1992. The huge monthly sales number can be attributed to federal stimulus payments that provided a temporary spending boost. The consumer spending boom could continue in the months ahead with consumers still sitting on a pile of accumulated savings as the economy continues to reopen.

The U.S. dollar failed to strengthen on the back of strong retail sales as Treasury yields fell.

We bear in mind, that we are still in a risk-on environment where expectations of a strong recovery are pushing equities to record levels while risky assets benefit. The anti-risk U.S. dollar, on the other hand, is not in demand in such environment.

EUR/USD – Finally due for a correction?

The euro knew only one direction in April – upwards. Now that the pair has reached a crucial resistance zone and refrained from a break above 1.20 amid its overbought situation, we expect the price to decline towards 1.19. For the uptrend to continue towards a higher resistance at 1.21, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.2020.

GBP/USD: The cable was little changed and remained below 1.38 in low volatile trading. We expect the pair to trade between 1.3850 and 1.36. As for bearish momentum, if the pound drops below 1.3720 we anticipate further losses towards 1.3670 and 1.36.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

We wish you good trades!

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USD Struggles To Find Clear Direction After U.S. Senate Sweep

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Democrats won two key Georgia runoffs and stocks advanced while the U.S. dollar was steady. The U.S. Senate sweep boosted speculation of more fiscal stimulus to revive growth and reigniting the reflation trade.

The dollar, however, struggled to find a clear direction and ended the day largely unchanged versus the euro and pound.

GBP/USD

Are chances in favor of upcoming breakouts? Maybe, since prices narrowed formatting a symmetrical triangle which could predict price breakouts to either side. Watch out for a bearish break below 1.3570 on the downside or a bullish break above 1.3660 on the upside.

The technical picture in the EUR/USD has not substantially changed since our analysis from Monday and a run for 1.24 is still in the cards. For bearish momentum to accelerate we would now need to see a significant break below 1.23.

The DAX rose again towards the 14000-level and we now see a next higher target at 14040 whereas the support remains intact at around 13600.

 

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U.S. Dollar Strengthens on Better-Than Expected PMI Data

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Dear traders,

The best performer Monday was the British pound that rallied as signs the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing a trade deal. The latest progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine bolstered the currency’s upward move.

Bulls in the GBP/USD profited while sterling rose to the highest level since early September. Looking ahead, the potential for progress in Brexit talks, growing optimism for a vaccine and fresh fiscal stimulus should keep the cable supported.

We bear in mind, that a Brexit deal is largely priced in to the pound, which is why a breakdown in talks would see a much larger move lower.

The euro experienced a sharp reversal after the U.S. dollar gained traction on better than expected flash PMI data. The monthly PMI report crushed market forecast as it came in at a five-year high.

From a technical perspective, not much has changed in the EUR/USD. Above 1.1920 gains may be extended towards 1.1960 whereas below 1.1790 the euro may slip towards 1.1690.

The U.S. dollar could experience bullish tailwinds in short-term time frames as robust U.S. economic data could downplay the urgency of another fiscal stimulus package or additional accommodation from the Federal Reserve.

 

We wish you good trades!

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This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End

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Dear traders,

We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.

The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.

In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.

Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.

Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.

While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.

The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.

The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.

This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.

We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

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Final U.S. Presidential Debate Leaves Market Unaffected

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Dear traders,

While the tone of the final U.S. presidential debate was much more civil that the first debate it gave traders little reason to shift their stances before the election on November 3 with the market showing no reaction during the debate.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the euro and pound but no big market moves were seen Thursday.

The DAX broke below 12400 and slid to a low of 12342 which was only a few pips away from our profit target TP100. However, we were able to book a good profit before the index recovered its losses.

Today is the last trading day of the week and we will save our weekly profit and wish everyone a wonderful weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

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