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All Eyes On U.S. CPI

All eyes will be on the U.S. consumer price index scheduled for release today at 13:30 UTC. Market participants expect the index to show a deceleration in price pressures. In case of any disappointment, the dollar will rally whereas a core CPI reading below 6 percent should ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Our trading ideas for today 13/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0565

Short @ 1.0520

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2320

Short @ 1.2235

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14380

Short @ 14320

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Pivotal Week

Welcome to a new and pivotal trading week. After smaller market movements on the back of a low liquidity backdrop the past week, the fundamental docket will get far busier this week. We get the last run of major data before the Christmas holidays with several high-profile event risk coming up within the next days.

The Federal Reserve is getting close to pivoting to easier policy and is thus expected to announce a 50bp rate hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to follow suit on Thursday.

In terms of volatility, the Fed will carry the greatest weight this week and since much of the central bank’s less-hawkish stance is already priced in into the market’s recent risk appetite and subsequent upward momentum, the greatest risk of volatility would be a sharp move to the downside.

The U.S. dollar started this week with an uptick against other peers and traders now turn their eyes to Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation data ahead of the Fed meeting. For the dollar to rally we would need to see core CPI above 6.3 percent whereas a reading below 6 percent could ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Technical view

EUR/USD: Looking at larger time frames the euro has been in a downtrend since May 2021. The only driving force behind the euro’s recent ascendency has been a softer U.S. dollar which traded lower on signs of easing U.S. inflation. In other words, the fundamental picture and developments in the US the next days will dictate the euro’s price action.

From a purely technical view, the currency pair remains stretched to the upside with a need for correction. Below 1.0340, chances increase in favor of the bears with a lower target seen at 1.01. Bulls on the other side will have to overcome the resistance zone between 1.06 and 1.08 in order to change the sentiment in favor of further bullish action.

GBP/USD: Like in the euro, the U.S. data and Fed decision will dictate the cable’s direction in the next days. It seems as if bullish momentum is waning and if the pound breaks below 1.21, we may see a steeper correction towards 1.18. Above 1.2350, however, bulls may push for a test of 1.25.

Our trading ideas for today 12/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0540

Short @ 1.0490

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2265

Short @ 1.2190

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14330

Short @ 14270

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Roller Coaster Ride

Inflation-Thursday proved to be a roller-coaster ride in the markets. U.S. inflation came in at 7.5 percent and was thus higher-than-expected. While the initial market reaction sent the U.S. dollar higher, the following whipsaw performance wiped out any previous gains. At the end of the trading day and after three fake-outs we had to record a small loss. However, also these days happen in trading and we will get over it.

After yesterday’s wild ride we may see some more profitable movements today.

Have a nice weekend.

 

Our trading ideas for 11/2/22:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1440

Short @ 1.1365

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3565

Short @ 1.3510

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15410

Short @ 15340

ETH/USD

Long @ 3170

Short @ 3070

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Will U.S. Inflation Spur The U.S. Dollar Rally?

For now, the Federal Reserve is not worried about inflation but could they be at some point? Traders are awaiting today’s U.S. consumer price report at 13:30 UTC and should brace for an upside surprise amid persistent supply chain bottlenecks and elevated energy prices. Higher-than-expected CPI numbers bring forward interest rate hike bets, which is positive for the U.S. dollar, while lower-than expected inflation figures could lift risk-assets across the board.

EUR/USD technical view:

Euro bulls weren’t able to push the pair back above 1.16, at least not until now. As long as the 1.1620-30 price area remains a hurdle, we favor a test of the crucial 1.15-support with a potential break of that support-mark. A next lower target would be at 1.14. Above 1.1630, however, bulls could push the pair for a test of 1.17.

GBP/USD technical view:

After testing the lower bound of the cable’s support-zone around 1.34 we saw the pound recovering some of its losses, testing the 1.36-hurdle. If 1.36 was the limit, traders should brace for steeper losses towards 1.3350 and 1.33. Only a significant break above 1.3650 could change the sentiment in favor of the bulls with a higher target seen at 1.38.

 

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4760

Short @ 4690

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. CPI Data to Spur Volatility

Not much has happened in the market on Tuesday with the U.S. dollar being little changed.

Traders are awaiting reports on the U.S. consumer-price index (today at 12:30 UTC) and retail sales (Friday). The figures will help to shape expectations about the likely timeline for Fed tapering and any eventual rate hikes. Today’s CPI numbers will be the last such release ahead of the FOMC November rate decision at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the start of tapering asset purchases.

Meanwhile, the upcoming data releases could spur added stagflation concerns. September inflation could be higher than expected and retail sales lower.

The release of CPI numbers could come as a big driver for U.S. dollar flows, so traders should brace for some volatility today.

EUR/USD: The pair extended its losses to a low of 1.1524 and if we now get a break below 1.1490, we could see the pair further tumbling towards 1.1450 and maybe even 1.1410. In case of a pullback, bulls will have to watch out for a rise above 1.1610 and further above 1.1670 in order to anticipate higher targets at 1.17 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. A next lower target is however seen at around 1.3370.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. CPI Data To Underpin Fed Taper Talks?

The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

If August CPI data shows that inflationary pressures slowed-down, we will see a bearish reaction in the dollar, pushing both EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher. An upside surprise, on the other side, would lead to a stronger dollar as traders pull forward bets on the timing of monetary tightening. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last month, the Federal Reserve led market participants believe that policy makers would wait longer before withdrawing stimulus but there has been speculation in recent days that the Fed may drop a hint of a forthcoming taper announcement at their FOMC meeting next week. This would be dollar-positive. But a hawkish signal will also depend on elevated inflationary pressures.

We could know more in the afternoon.

EUR/USD: The pair was able to stabilize again above 1.18 after testing 1.1770. Above 1.1830 we could see a run for 1.1870-80. Below 1.1790, the pair could test 1.1750.

GBP/USD: Remaining above 1.3750, chances are slightly in favor of a bullish move towards 1.3970. Below 1.3730, the focus shifts to a lower target at 1.3630.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Traders Eye Inflation Reports

Welcome to a new trading week. Traders will likely be eyeing key inflation data from the U.S., U.K. and eurozone this week to shape expectations for monetary policy tightening. The U.S. dollar in the meantime strengthened slightly against other peers, pushing the euro and British pound lower and below crucial support levels.

U.S. inflation is expected to slow down for the first time this year, increasing the chances of a bearish reaction in the greenback. Evidence of slower price growth would warrant the Federal Reserve’s current path for monetary policy, while a higher than forecast inflation reading could generate a bullish reaction in the dollar. The U.S. inflation report is due for release on Tuesday.

EUR/USD

The pair held above the 1.18-barrier until this morning but now that the threshold was breached, we could see the euro falling towards 1.1750 and 1.1730 in a next move. On the topside, we look at a resistance at 1.1880 that could attract sellers. For a bullish breakout, however, we would need to see prices above 1.1910.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable holds above 1.3750, we pencil in higher targets between 1.3950-70.

DAX: After 15700 broke, the index slid lower towards 15400 but if current support levels seen at 15400 and 15250 hold, we anticipate a bullish move back towards 15900.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar Vulnerable To Further Losses Ahead Of CPI

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major peers ahead of today’s closely-watched inflation report.

The CPI report is scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. For Federal Reserve taper risk to intensify we will need to see an unambiguously upward surprise to CPI data with headline inflation topping 5 percent YoY. If inflation figures are in line or below forecasts, the dollar could be vulnerable to further losses.

GBP/USD: Above 1.3925, it will be interesting whether sterling bulls are able to clear the 1.3950-barrier, the last hurdle before 1.40. The psychological level at 1.40 could serve as a crucial resistance for bulls in the short-term. Remaining however below 1.3920, our focus shifts to a lower target at 1.3770.

EUR/USD: As long as the pair remains trading above 1.1850, chances are in favor of the bulls with higher targets seen at 1.19 and 1.1950.

Elsewhere, the DAX reached a fresh record high at 15817 this morning and as long as the index holds firmly above 15500, there is nothing in the way of a run for 16000.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Eventful Week For The Greenback

The best performer last Friday was the British pound which headed for a test of 1.39 against the U.S. dollar. Much of the GBP/USD’s recent upward move can be attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar on the back of declining Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and collapsing U.S. Treasury yields.

As for the greenback, this week will be an eventful one with the June U.S. inflation report (Tuesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony (Thursday) being potential catalysts for bigger market movements. There is a risk that market participants may shrug off an even hot inflation report and a corresponding rise in yields since the Fed continues to insists that inflation is largely transitory. This could limit dollar gains even if Tuesday’s inflation report surprises to the upside.

The latest FOMC minutes, on the other side, showed the committee had a lot of questions about how soon labor shortages and supply bottlenecks contributing to inflation would resolve. Chair Jerome Powell may shed more light on the outlook on Thursday when he appears before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The hearing is scheduled to start at 9:30 a.m. in Washington.

GBP/USD

The cable’s rebound was limited to a high of 1.3910 and we will wait for a break above 1.3920 in order to expect a test of 1.3940-50 and maybe even a run for the crucial resistance at 1.40. For bearish momentum to gain traction, we would need to see a renewed break below 1.3760 on the downside or a test of 1.40 on the upside.

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded towards 1.19 after the 1.1780-level proved to hold. We now pay attention to an upside break of 1.1910 which could spur bullish momentum towards 1.1970. On the downside, the 1.18-level could serve as a current support but if it breaks, we see a next target at around 1.1760.

Looking ahead to the next week, the European Central Bank decision on July 22, which was previously expected to be relatively uneventful amid the summer markets, will now have “some interesting variations and changes”. “It’s going to be an important meeting” and investors should prepare for new guidance in 10 days, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Television in Venice on Sunday. So, there might be some volatility in store for euro traders next week.

DAX

The index refrained from a fall below 15300 and thus extended the lower bound of its previous sideways trading range to 15300. A break below the ascending trendline at 15350 could however result in a break of the sideways range with a next lower target seen at 15100. Bulls will keep an eye on an upside break of 15800.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Traders Eye ECB Decision And U.S. Inflation

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been trading in tight price ranges given the onset of the summer lull, making it difficult for traders to profit from low volatile swings. Even technical price breakouts provided little follow-through as volatility ebbs. However, today might be different with traders eyeing the U.S. key inflation report and European Central Bank decision for clues on the direction of monetary policies. We brace for bigger market moves around the ECB decision at 11:45 UTC and the inflation report due at 12:30 UTC.

As for the inflation report, expectations are that even a little higher reading won’t change the Fed’s monetary policy path right now. Fed policy makers are in a wait-and-see mode and do not intend to surprise the market with premature policy changes at their meeting next week. If there is, however, a significant higher inflation reading, taper talk is about to intensify with the U.S. dollar soaring ahead of the Fed meeting.

The ECB is likely to follow the Fed’s lead and keep ultra-loose monetary stimulus in place. Neither the Fed nor the ECB is expected to slow the pandemic bond buying at their meetings this month. Economists expect policy makers to opt for another three months of the very accommodative monetary policy. Central banks could taper bond-buying in September at the earliest.

In a nutshell, while we do not expect fireworks today, we brace for higher volatility that could provide profitable trading opportunities.

EUR/USD: Bulls were unable to stabilize the pair above 1.22 ahead of today’s risk events. We will keep tabs on a significant break above 1.2250 in order to expect further gains. Above 1.2270, the next higher target is 1.2350. On the downside, if the euro breaks below 1.2130 and further 1.2090, we could see accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.1950.

GBP/USD: After the cable failed to hold above 1.42 the focus shifts to a break below 1.4090 that could lead to further losses towards 1.40. On the upside and following a renewed break above 1.42, a higher target is seen at 1.4280. How the pair will trade in short-term time frames could however mainly hinge on the greenback’s performance today.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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