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Bearish Momentum To Continue? All Eyes On NFP Numbers

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s Super Thursday disappointed the market’s expectations with the Bank of England’s moderate inflation expectations making a potential rate hike this year less likely. Sterling bulls have hoped for a change in the central bank’s policy stance as well as higher inflation forecasts. However, the opposite turned out to be the case: While growth forecasts were raised slightly higher, inflation forecasts for 2017 were lowered down to 2.7% from 2.8%. Furthermore there was no change in the BoE’s monetary policy stance as Brexit and Trump lead to uncertainty, making it difficult for the BoE to consider higher rates anytime soon.

The pound dropped in response to the ‘less-hawkish’ statement and is currently hovering just above the 1.25 level. From a technical perspective, we now expect further near-term losses in the GBP/USD and still focus on a break below 1.24. Lower targets could be at 1.23 and 1.2270.

The euro traded confined to a narrow 80-pips trading range. While a break above 1.0810 failed to provide any sustained profit, bearish momentum appears to be not yet enough to push the euro significantly lower. We recommend waiting for a break below 1.0730 in order to sell euros towards 1.0680.

Today’s price action will however mainly hinge on the outcome of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect a 175,000 increase in payrolls for January with unemployment likely to remain relatively stable. The focus will also be on wage pressures.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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Traders Prepare For Volatile Swings This Week

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. Financial markets are dominated by uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s administration, prompting large investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after Trump’s order halting some immigration, causing geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion has therefore led to a recent sideways trend with both major currency pairs trading in relatively narrow trading ranges. This phase of trendless and uncertain markets makes it difficult for day traders to benefit from limited fluctuations and the lack of price breakouts.

This week’s major event risks might bring some new momentum to the markets and trigger profitable breakouts. The economic calendar is very busy in terms of market moving data and traders await high volatility throughout the entire week. The week starts off with the German Consumer Price report, scheduled for release today at 13:00 UTC which could lend a support to the euro. On Tuesday, the Eurozone Consumer Price report will be important to watch while an upbeat report could lead to speculation that the European Central Bank might start to reduce its asset purchases in the near future. With regard to top-tier U.S. economic data, the FOMC rate decision and the Non-Farm Payrolls report (Friday) will take center stage this week. The FOMC committee will deliver an update on its policy stance on Wednesday and while the FOMC statement is expected to be relatively upbeat, the fiscal policy uncertainty may frustrate the greenback’s recovery.

For sterling traders, the most interesting event will be the Bank of England‘s ‘Super Thursday‘ which may shape expectations for the near-term outlook for sterling. The BoE releases its Quarterly Inflation Report alongside its monthly monetary policy decision. If BoE policymakers show greater willingness to drop their dovish tone and gradually move away from their easing cycle, the pound could be vulnerable to further gains, heading for a test of 1.2780/90.

Important data for today:

13:00 EUR German CPI data

13:30 USA PCE Report

15:00 USA Pending Home Sales

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Investors’ Appetite For U.S. Dollars Will Determine This Week’s Price Action

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you the trading month of October. Even though, the last trading month has proved to be non-profitable for day traders, it was a great month for swing traders while our swing signal trades generated an overall profit of 357 pips in September. Also this month we will again provide swing- and long-term entries for subscribers to get the best out of the current market conditions.

The British pound declined gapped lower at the open of the trading week after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she will start pulling the Brexit trigger in the first quarter of 2017. May made a clear statement when she said on Sunday that they “will invoke Article 50 no later than the end of March next year.” From a technical perspective the support at 1.2915 is still intact and sterling bears may wait for a break below 1.29 in order to send the pound lower towards 1.2850. A current resistance is however seen around the 1.30-level.

The euro is still trading sideways within its recent trading range between 1.1250 and 1.1150. As long as the EUR/USD remains confined to a price range between 1.1280 and 1.1130 there is nothing new to report.

The focus this week will again shift to the U.S. Payrolls report on Friday while the report is expected to show steady labor-market improvement. An upbeat result may boost the U.S. dollar as it would bolster Federal Reserve rate hike speculation before year-end.

Today’s ISM Manufacturing Survey, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC will be important to watch. Supportive ISM data may push the dollar higher versus its counterparts.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Can U.S. Payrolls Increase Investor’s Appetite For Risk?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Thursday was again a trading day without any profitable movements in the EUR/USD. Our short-entry has proven unsuccessful as the euro found a short-term support at 1.1050. We now focus on an upside break above 1.1120 for bullish and vice versa, below 1.1025 for bearish engagements. Unlike the euro, the cable fluctuated within larger ranges, marking a current trading range between 1.3050 and 1.2875. As we generally expect further losses in the pound, a break below 1.2875 will be the most closely watched scenario in the near-term.

All eyes will be on today’s U.S. jobs report with market participants wanting to see if the disappointing May Non-Farm Payrolls were an aberration or a signal that the U.S. economy lost momentum. The payrolls report is expected to show a job growth of 180,000 workers, confirming that last month’s drop was a temporary thing. If data disappoints, however, the U.S. dollar could be vulnerable to losses, sending the euro and pound higher in return. In general terms, the dollar’s performance will hinge on investor’s risk appetite.

The June Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. On every payrolls day we remind traders that this is a high risk event which should be traded with caution. In phases of extreme high volatility, pending orders can be triggered and stopped out within seconds, which is why we recommend waiting until payroll figures are released before entering the market.

EUR/USD

As long as the euro trades below 1.11, the bias remains slightly bearish. Provided that the short-term downward channel remains intact, we will focus on a break below 1.1050 and 1.1020, which could send the euro towards 1.0970 and 1.0850. The descending triangle becomes void as soon as the euro climbs above 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot8.7.16

 

 

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Price Action Continues To Be Muted But Watch Out For A GBP/USD-Breakout

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar failed to trade sustainably higher against the euro and British pound Thursday. While dollar bulls may have hoped for stronger U.S. data to reaffirm the dollar’s strength, expectations have been disappointed – at least yesterday. The Philadelphia Fed index came in softer than expected and thus failed to encourage dollar bulls to push the currency higher. With the Fed’s willingness to raise rates as early as June, the main focus will be on the May Non-Farm Payrolls report due to be released on June 3. The currency market is generally looking to further dollar strength and if incoming U.S. data is surprising on the upside it could be a catalyst for some downside breakouts in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

U.S. Existing Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC but this report is unlikely to trigger significant movements.

The British pound initially rose as high as 1.4663 as the price action was boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. retail sales. However, sterling was unable to hold onto its gains and ended the day unchanged against the greenback. We now see a higher likelihood of an upcoming breakout of the cable’s recent narrow trading range. We will therefore focus on prices above 1.4620 for any bullish and vice versa on prices below 1.4590 for any bearish engagements. Given the recent uptrend channel higher targets could be at 1.4695 whereas a support could be at 1.4490.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot20.5.16

The price action in the EUR/USD was muted and the currency pair fluctuated within a narrow trading range of 50 pips. Traders should wait for an upside break above 1.1230 or vice versa, a downside break below 1.1180. Above 1.1230, higher targets could be at 1.1260 and 1.1290, whereas below 1.1180, the euro could fall towards 1.1130.

We wish good trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Jobs Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro traded lower ahead of today’s highly anticipated U.S. jobs report, which may shed light on U.S. growth and whether the economy is strong enough for higher interest rates. The payrolls report is forecast to show a 200k jobs-increase for April but it would require an upside surprise in the headline figures of the report. We can speak of a strong jobs report if the unemployment rate shows a decline, average hourly earnings are on the rise and payrolls growth exceeds at least 220k. If there will be no upside surprise, supporting the case for tighter monetary policy in the near-term, the dollar could give up some of its recent gains.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD

It all depends on today’s key employment data, but from a technical perspective traders should focus on the overall picture. In the medium-term the euro is still trading within an upward-channel. Given the recent downward move we will now focus on the lower bound of that channel which is currently around 1.1360/40. If the euro breaks below 1.1335 we see chances of further losses towards 1.12 and 1.1150. If, on the other hand, the euro is able to climb again above 1.15 and farther 1.1530, it could even head for a test of 1.1630. However, if NFP data fails to impress, the EUR/USD could remain confined to a trading range between 1.15 and 1.1350.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot6.5.16

The British pound, however, refrained from trading lower than 1.4443. After a break below 1.4440, sterling could be vulnerable to further losses and we will shift our focus to lower targets at 1.4330. A current resistance is seen at 1.4520.

We wish all traders a profitable trading day but bear in mind that the trading on payrolls day is highly risky and is therefore not for the faint-hearted. Personally, we will not invest our weekly profits and take it easy today.

Have a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Is Undervalued After Investors Pushed Rate-Hike Expectations Into Far Distance

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of May and we hope for new profitable opportunities and greater willingness on the part of investors to take risks, increasing the volatility on the markets.

Today’s analysis will be brief due to a public holiday.

This week’s main risk event will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday but analysts doubt that the report will help the U.S. dollar strengthen. On the contrary, if labor market data fail to impress, the greenback could be vulnerable to further losses, sending its major peers even higher. Before going into Friday’s report, both ISM indices, scheduled for release on Monday and Wednesday, could help evaluating the payrolls’ possible outcome.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today at 14:00 UTC in Frankfurt, which could affect the euro in the short-term.

Important data and speeches for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

14:00 EUR Draghi speaks

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Payrolls To Be A Glimmer Of Hope For The USD

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Bulls take control of both major currency pairs, although the British pound struggled with an extension of its recent gains. As noted in previous analysis, we still expect the pound to come under renewed pressure in the near-term and we anticipate a drop towards 1.4280 and 1.42. The technical picture is discussed later on. The euro, however, tested the 1.14-barrier after the 1.13-support has proved to be resilient.

All eyes will be on the U.S. Payroll report scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today. Nonetheless a strong report probably wouldn’t be a game changer for the Fed’s outlook after Mrs. Yellen sent a clear signal to proceed cautiously. In case of a strong labor market report the highest importance is attached to a much-needed acceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings must show an uptick in order to revive any strength in the U.S. dollar. However, if wages fail to show acceleration the greenback could suffer further losses.

Furthermore the most important leading indicator for payrolls – the ISM Manufacturing index – is only due for release after the jobs report (14:00 GMT) but could still affect the price action in the USD.

Let’s have a look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD

It all depends on the demand for USD but given the recent uptrend channel upside movements could be limited until 1.1420. Once the euro breaks above 1.1430 it could head toward the key resistance at 1.15. However if NFP numbers are strong the dollar could strengthen, leading to a correction in the recent uptrend. Current supports are seen at 1.13 and 1.1220, but given the bullish bias euro bulls are likely to buy any pullback.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

GBP/USD

After peaking at 1.4459 the pound favored the downtrend and is now facing an important support at 1.43. Once this support has been significantly breached to the downside, we expect the pound to drop towards 1.4250 and 1.42. Below 1.4190 it could even decline towards 1.4150 and 1.4060. After the break above 1.44 turned out to be unreliable for sterling bulls, it might be better to wait for prices above 1.4435 and further 1.4465.

 

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.4.16

We wish every trader profitable trades.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will U.S. Payrolls Trigger A Second Round Of Dollar Weakness?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Choppy fluctuations in the GBP/USD Thursday left much to be desired for traders. Any upward movements were oriented towards the rising trend-line, limiting further gains in the currency pair. The short-lived downward move during the release of the Bank of England’s inflation report also failed to show sustained momentum. In the light of the latest inflation forecast the outlook has become cloudy, at least until 2018. The Bank of England cut its inflation forecast once again, while the Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold. The MPC reflected the possibility of greater persistence of low inflation in the near-term, while the forecast shows inflation will rise in two years.

In a nutshell, the bearish bias is likely to continue into the second half of 2016 before a trend reversal.

The euro appeared to be unaffected by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that policy makers must not surrender to low inflation and reiterated the ECB’s dovish monetary policy stance. On the contrary, the EUR/USD preferred the upward trend on speculations the Fed will delay tightening policy.

Going into today’s’ highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, the current weakness of the U.S. dollar is dominating the markets and we are eager to see whether payrolls data will trigger another round of dollar weakness.

The odds are in favor of further dollar weakness as the January U.S. jobs report is forecast to show a smaller expansion, rising only by 190K last month. The focus will also be on Average Hourly Earnings and if payrolls and wage growth surprise to the downside, the USD is in trouble.

As the expectations are very high, trading is very risky at the time when payrolls are due for release. Traders should therefore use a proper risk management in order to avoid disappointments.

Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Dollar Weakness To Continue?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

What a day for the USD! The U.S. dollar depreciated sharply against all of the major currencies as signs of a slowing U.S. economy pushed the 2016 rate-hike likelihood lower. Despite a stronger-than anticipated ADP report, the USD was exposed to strong selling pressure after a report showed U.S. services industries expanded last month at the slowest pace in nearly two years, clouding the economic outlook. In addition, comments from New York Fed President William C. Dudley, who said that the recent financial turmoil “may alter the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward” set off the dollar’s weakness.

The subsequent rise in the euro and cable was also technical driven as stops were triggered, sending both pairs even higher. The focus now shifts to the Non-Farm Payrolls report due for release tomorrow, which is expected to show fewer than 200K jobs for the first time since September. The payrolls report may determine whether the dollar weakness will continue. In the meantime, let us focus on the technical side:

EUR/USD

The euro rose as high as 1.1145 on the back of broad-based dollar weakness. Depending on tomorrow’s U.S. labor market data, we may see another round of a dollar selloff, which could send the euro towards 1.12 and 1.1280 in a next step. For the time being, we expect the 1.1160-level to act as a current resistance, while downward moves may be limited until 1.10/1.0980. An important support zone is currently seen at 1.0850.

ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 8:00 GMT today, which could have a short-term impact on the EUR/USD.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot4.2.16

GBP/USD

The Bank of England will present its Quarterly Inflation report along with the monetary policy announcement at 12:00 GMT today. While the Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, BoE Governor Mark Carney may offer some insight when he presents the BoE’s latest economic projections at a press conference 45 minutes later. The expectations are high and traders should be prepared for everything. If the February predictions look bright, predicting inflation would overshoot the BoE’s target over the medium term, the pound sterling could extend its gains versus the greenback. Let’s wait and see.

Taking a look at the 4-hour chart the risk seems to be to the downside. The cable tagged a fresh resistance at 1.4650 and it might be smarter to wait for a significant break above 1.4665/70 in order to buy GBP towards key resistances at 1.47 and 1.48. The direction will hinge on the BoE Inflation report and Carney’s comments but in case of a dovish tilt, we may see the cable sliding back towards 1.4440, 1.4370 and 1.43.

Chart_GBP_USD_4 Hours_snapshot4.2.16

U.S. data such as Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) and Factory Orders (15:00 GMT) may take a back seat.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co