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This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End

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Dear traders,

We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.

The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.

In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.

Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.

Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.

While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.

The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.

The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.

This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.

We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Final U.S. Presidential Debate Leaves Market Unaffected

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Dear traders,

While the tone of the final U.S. presidential debate was much more civil that the first debate it gave traders little reason to shift their stances before the election on November 3 with the market showing no reaction during the debate.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the euro and pound but no big market moves were seen Thursday.

The DAX broke below 12400 and slid to a low of 12342 which was only a few pips away from our profit target TP100. However, we were able to book a good profit before the index recovered its losses.

Today is the last trading day of the week and we will save our weekly profit and wish everyone a wonderful weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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USD Remains Weak, EUR And GBP With a Slight Tailwind

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Good morning everyone!

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure amid optimism about progress on stimulus talks in Washington. White House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is hopeful for a stimulus agreement this week which would be bigger, better and retroactive. However, with the U.S. election looming the dollar’s fate will mainly hinge on the election outcome.

Looking ahead to the European Central Bank meeting next Thursday ECB President Christine Lagarde said the unexpectedly early pickup in coronavirus infections is a “clear risk” to the economic outlook, which could be a sign that policy makers are preparing for more monetary stimulus. Investors largely expect the ECB to wait until December before boosting its 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program. Updated projections for growth and inflation that could justify more action will be announced at the ECB meeting in December.

As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, the EUR/USD broke its narrow price range and could now be heading toward 1.1880 or even 1.1915, provided that the 1.1850-level gives way to further bullish momentum in this pair.

The picture was completely different in the GBP/USD, which consolidated between 1.2980 and 1.2910 Tuesday.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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US Election: A Fateful Day?

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Dear Traders,

It’s Election Day in the U.S. and no other event matters financial markets more than this historical presidential election. The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened amid speculation that a Clinton win is more likely and therefore will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

Let’s briefly summarize the main points:

  • Final polls show a small but not insurmountable lead for Clinton
  • Results will start to come in after polls begin closing at 23:00 UTC (6 p.m. Eastern time)
  • Voting across the country will finish at 6:00 UTC (1 a.m. EST)
  • 4:00 UTC (11 p.m. EST) Earliest possible time to announce the winner.
  • Trump win would send the USD lower, at least initially. In the long-run, the dollar may strengthen on tax cuts and spending increases. The markets will face increased volatility and uncertainty. Risk-aversion will dominate.
  • Clinton win would send the USD higher as the focus shifts to Fed rate hike in December. Her victory could reinvigorate a fresh dollar rally while investors would become less risk-averse.
  • A tight race between Clinton and Trump would add uncertainty, which would be dollar-negative in the hours after the election.

As the price action will be determined by the latest polls, traders should prepare for both scenarios. In case of a Trump win, both of our major currency pairs will trade higher. Thus the euro could rise towards 1.12-1.1250 and even towards 1.14. The British pound could rise towards 1.2670/1.27. In case of a Clinton win however, the euro could fall towards 1.08 whereas the British pound might drop back towards 1.21. Let’s be surprised.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Payrolls To Take Back Seat To Election Uncertainty

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Dear Traders,

It is payrolls-day again but this time, U.S. employment data is however not the market’s main concern. Market participants are bracing for election volatility and severe turbulence with only few days to go before the Nov. 8 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Traders are adjusting dollar positions to avoid risks ahead of the historical U.S. vote. The market became more nervous since Clinton’s lead over Trump has shrunk in the past days while a Trump victory has not yet been priced in. The dollar recently weakened against its counterparts in the light of that increasing uncertainty about the outcome.

Economists are looking for U.S. nonfarm payrolls to climb by 175k last month whereas a healthy report would reinforce the assumption that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. If the report falls however short of expectations, the greenback could face another round of weakness. The payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Technically, the euro finds itself in a current trading range between 1.1125 and 1.1050. Looking at the daily chart we see that the downward channel is still unbroken, which could predict upcoming bearish momentum in the EUR/USD. As long as the euro remains below 1.1150 we see a higher likelihood for a downward movement.

chart_eur_usd_daily_snapshot4-11-16

However, we do not expect today’s NFP report to change the sentiment in the euro as big market players remain risk-averse ahead of next Tuesday/Wednesday – and that’s what we are doing.

The GBP/USD broke above the falling trend line of its recent downward channel and further gains might be possible but let’s be surprised and prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario. A new support could be at 1.2340 whereas a next major resistance is only seen around 1.2670.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot4-11-16

Have a nice weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Risk-Aversion Dominates The Market Ahead Of Major Risk Events

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar received less attention as investors turned risk-averse in the light of the latest twist in the U.S. election, causing uncertainty about the outcome of the looming vote. The euro still remained within a narrow trading range and none of our entries was triggered Monday. In order to expect an increase in momentum we now wait for an upside break above 1.0980 or, on the other side, a downside break below 1.0935.

Unlike the non-moving euro, the British pound rose to a high of 1.2249 as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney announced that he will remain in the role until 2019. Carney’s decision to stay at the BoE was seen as a positive for the U.K. even though the pound remains vulnerable to further losses in the medium term. The GBP/USD trades sideways between 1.2275 and 1.21 ans as long as there is no breakout of this range we will have to wait.

The U.K. PMI Manufacturing is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the pound.

More important will be the ISM Manufacturing index, due for release at 14:00 UTC which should affect the performance of the U.S. dollar provided that the report surprises to the upside.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Presidential Debate In Full Swing But Investors Remain Risk-Averse

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Dear Traders,

This week started with some volatile swings in the Forex market with GBP/USD being the most volatile currency pair on Monday. The British pound dropped again towards its current support at 1.2910 before it started a relief rally. The cable has been torn between the rising fears of a “hard Brexit” and the weakening dollar.  The euro, however, rebounded against the U.S. dollar and the pair tested its resistance zone around 1.1275/85. As stated in yesterday’s analysis euro bulls should better wait for prices above 1.13 and even better above 1.1350. As long as the euro remains below 1.13, our focus shifts to a break of the 1.12-support.

The pound sterling traded volatile during the Asian session as the first U.S. presidential debate is in full swing. A Clinton win is seen as dollar-positive while a Trump victory would lead to chaos in the markets and has not yet been priced in. Investors remain risk-averse in the run-up to the presidential election in November and seek safe havens. Recent polls show a close head-to-head contest between the two candidates.

Apart from the U.S. debate and safe haven flows, U.S. Consumer Confidence, due at 14:00 UTC could have an impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co