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GBP’s Sell-Off: Only A Steep Correction?

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Dear Traders,

The biggest story yesterday was the sharp sell-off in the British pound. The cable was crushed as UK inflation unexpectedly dropped below zero. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in September, which was even worse than economist’s forecast of stagnation. The decline will reinforce the view that the Bank of England is far away from raising interest rates in the near future. Interestingly, the pound already weakened before inflation data was due for release. Traders have therefore reason to believe, that there was a leak and that some market participants were already aware of the weak CPI report.

Today’s focus shifts to the U.K. Labor Market report, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. Economists predict that wage growth accelerated in August, which could incite sterling bulls to buy GBP towards 1.54 again. A strong labor market report would have the potential to turn yesterday’s decline into a sharp correction of the recent uptrend.

The EUR/USD has nothing new to report. The German ZEW survey came in even weaker than anticipated, but the euro was unaffected by the deterioration in investor sentiment. The currency remained trading within its narrow range between 1.1410 and 1.1345.

The most important piece of U.S. data will be today’s Retail Sales report, due for release at 12:30 GMT. If data disappoints, we could see a sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar, pushing its major peers towards fresh highs. Independently of the outcome, this report should have a significant impact on the greenback.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT.

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U.S. Data will determine the market’s appetite for USD

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Dear Traders,

Welcome to a new trading week.

Last Friday was characterized by a steady uptrend in the EUR/USD, providing traders a nice profit. The GBP/USD, however, played a spoiling rule and tortured traders with choppy moves and losing trades within a narrow 80-pip range.

New week, new chances

There are plenty of economic data reports this week which should be worthwhile to pay special attention to. On Tuesday, U.K. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release, followed by the German ZEW survey, which will be the only market-moving eurozone data this week.

On Wednesday the focus will be on U.K. labor market data, U.S. Retail Sales and the Fed Beige Book.

U.S. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release on Thursday. Market participants are likely to pay close attention to this report, as the Federal Reserve’s main concern is inflation and a further decline may increase concerns about the timing for a liftoff.

Technical perspective:

EUR/USD

We got what we were looking for last week – a breakout of the euro’s narrow trading range. The euro now faces a next resistance area at 1.1435 – 1.1460. Fresh bullish momentum should only be considered with a break above 1.1470. Remaining below 1.14, current supports could be at 1.1320, 1.1290 and 1.1220.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot12.10.15

GBP/USD

The British Pound corrected its recent uptrend, marking a current resistance at 1.5370-80. Chances are that a significant break above 1.5340 drives the pair towards a test of 1.54 and 1.5430. A current support is seen at around 1.5250. Below 1.5240, GBP is likely to drop towards 1.5150.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot12.10.15

Have a good start to the week.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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Will today’s economic data trigger big moves?

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Dear Traders,

Market participants are very cautious ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday. Price fluctuations have been muted as a result. Nonetheless short-traders were able to gain a small profit by yesterday’s decline in the EUR and GBP.

Today, we will pay closer attention to important economic data such as U.K. Consumer Prices, the German ZEW survey and U.S. Retail Sales. Each report could have a more or less significant impact on the currency pairs, but since the market is dominated by uncertainty and risk-aversion, the reaction to these reports could result in unsteady and choppy swings.

EUR/USD

Technically we see the next major resistance zone at around 1.14. Euro traders might look for an upside move until 1.14/ 1.1420. However, with a significant break below 1.1250, we expect the euro to depreciate towards 1.1180 and 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot15.9.15

 

Important economic data:

8:30 UK CPI

9:00 EUR German ZEW Survey

12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales

(timezone: GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro as a safe-haven currency

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Dear Traders,

Who would have thought it: Not long ago, the euro seemed to depreciate to parity against the U.S. dollar. Now, however, on the back of China’s devaluation and a cloudy outlook for a Federal Reserve rate increase, the euro is trading as a safe-haven. A September liftoff is still on the table, but expectations for the first rate hike since 2006 have been pushed back.

EUR/USD

The euro broke above its 1.11- resistance, touching a one-month high of $ 1.1213. This level could meanwhile act as a new hurdle for the currency pair. Above 1.1215, chances are that the euro heads for a test of 1.1279 and further 1.1375.

Below 1.1040 the euro could again tend towards its support around 1.09-1.0850.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot13.8.15

The British Pound did not move much yesterday. Our long-trade has exactly reached its profit target, and that was yet the highest level. GBP/USD is still captured within a consolidated trading range between its resistance zone 1.5650-90 and a current support at 1.5450. Traders will need to wait for break-outs of this range before expecting fresh momentum to either side.

U.S. Advance Retail Sales are scheduled for release today at 12:30 GMT, an important report which could trigger a strong reaction in the dollar.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

U.S. Dollar lost strength

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Dear Traders,

Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls have led to a rollercoaster ride in both major pairs. While the release met economist’s expectations, the U.S. Dollar was unable to maintain its gains and experienced a sharp correction. At the end of the day, the greenback traded more or less unchanged against its major peers. Despite the fact that a September lift-off remains unambiguously on the table, the dollar’s correction was due to profit taking within quiet market conditions and less participation during the holiday season.

This week’s economic calendar is relatively light with only German ZEW Survey (Tuesday), U.S. Retail Sales (Thursday), Eurozone GDP reports and Michigan Confidence (Friday) scheduled for release.

We wish you a good start to the week.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

And the winner is…the U.S. dollar

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Dear Traders,

After months of tortuous negotiations between Greece and its creditors, Greece finally capitulated to the creditor’s demands and implement measures even more severe than those rejected by Greek voters in the July 5 referendum on austerity. The deal must now pass the Greek parliament, which will be the next difficult hurdle for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greece will only receive its third aid package when Tsipra’s Coalition of the radical left will approve the reforms. The deal is controversial among critics and some call the proposal nothing more than asset stripping.

While it remains to be seen if the deal will allow the country to stand on its feet in the long-run and act as a foundation for economic revival, one thing is pretty clear: The uncertainty and trauma incurred over the past months have divided Europe and increased the mistrust amongst the parties. Furthermore, the relationships within the Eurozone have been strained as a result. This is why the pressure on the euro is likely to continue.

Three main reasons why the euro declined after the Greek deal

1. The ECB will have to aggressively continue its Quantitative Easing to stabilize the eurozone’s balance sheet.

2. The Federal Reserve could reinforce the confidence that a rate hike is justified given the fact that Greek risk has been averted.

3. The Eurozone ideal has been worn away given the high level of mistrust.

The British Pound first rose against the U.S. dollar and provided traders a nice gain from our long-entry. Later during the day, the greenback was king and sterling declined below $ 1.55. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies yesterday, making it the biggest winner of the Greek debt deal and the most attractive currency.

Today, there are some interesting data releases which should be important to watch:

8:30 UK Consumer Prices

9:00 EUR German & Eurozone ZEW Survey

12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales

(timezone: GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co