The Dollar’s Fate Is In The Hands Of The U.S. Tax Reform Bill

Dear Traders,

U.S. inflation data, at the end of the day, did not have a major impact on the U.S. dollar with the greenback ending the trading day virtually unchanged against the euro and British pound. The EUR/USD soared to a high of 1.1860 before it fell back below 1.18. Our assumption of a slight extension of gains in the EUR/USD has proved correct but the sharp intraday reversal could cause euro bulls to run out of breath now. While the 1.1910-Level remains a crucial resistance on the topside, the euro could now struggle to overcome the 1.1805-hurdle. If the single currency is able to stabilize above 1.18 we may see a run for 1.19 but with bullish momentum running out of steam the euro may head for 1.1730.

Euro traders should keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price report due at 10:00 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the euro’s price action.

The current price action in the GBP/USD frays the nerves of day traders. The pair trades without any discernable direction and for traders looking to assign a directional approach, we recommend waiting for price breakouts either above 1.3270 and 1.3350 or below 1.31 and 1.3020.

Sterling traders should pay attention to a round of Bank of England speakers including BoE Governor Carney who is scheduled to speak at 14:00 UTC.

Apart from market-moving topics like Brexit and monetary policy, the fate of the U.S. dollar is in the hands of the U.S. tax reform. Today, the House will vote on its tax-overhaul bill, aiming to take the most concrete step toward overhauling the American tax system. House Republicans aim to get the tax reform done by year-end and that is exactly what dollar bulls want to see. How the dollar will trade in the near-term could therefore hinge on the outcome of today’s vote.

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