There Is No Reasonable Explanation For The Dollar’s reversal

Dear Traders,

It seemed as if dollar bulls just sought an excuse for taking profits on dollar positions after the U.S. dollar rose to new highs on evidence of firming inflation. Whereas for the U.S. all signs are pointing to higher inflation and thus, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, there was no reasonable explanation for the sharp reversal of the USD towards the end of the trading day. During the House Financial Services Committee hearing, conservatives Republicans pressed Fed Chair Janet Yellen to concede that economic growth is still disappointing and that the Fed has failed to fix underlying problems. For the most part, Yellen’s tone was positive, defending the Fed’s efforts that had contributed to strong job growth. The only negative point during the hearing was that Yellen acknowledged that economic growth has been “quite disappointing”. This seemed to be the reason for the weakening dollar in short-term time frames.

The EUR/USD traded higher, heading towards 1.0630 and it will now be interesting whether the 1.0660-resistance is going to hold. If the euro breaks through 1.0665/70 we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.0710 and possibly even 1.0750. A current support area is however seen at 1.0580-60. If the euro falls back below 1.0560 it could extend its losses towards 1.0510.

The pound sterling ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback. A break above 1.2520 could boost bullish momentum but we bear in mind that the barrier at 1.2550 is still unbroken. Crucial support levels are seen at 1.2350 and 1.2310 and as long as the pound remains firmly above these zones we will rather focus on higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and those of you who have already made a good profit this week, shall better not reinvest their profits.

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