Summer Break 2015
Dear Traders,
We will leave for summer holiday from 17/07/2015 till 31/07/2015. During this time we will not provide our daily signal service.
We wish everyone a beautiful and enjoyable summer.
Kind regards,
MaiMarFX Team
Archive for month: July, 2015
First Fed-move expected in September – Focus now on ECB
Dear Traders,
While sterling bears had to struggle with multiple short-entries, making it a strenuous trading day, euro trader’s efforts paid off. The euro traded lower on stronger U.S. data and hawkish comments from Janet Yellen, providing euro bears many green pips.
Yellen is optimistic and expects U.S. growth to strengthen over the rest of 2015. She said that “every FOMC meeting is a Live meeting”, which means that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at any meeting. She stressed that the pace of policy tightening is more important than the timing of the first rate increase. In other words, a September liftoff is still possible, increasing the demand for U.S. dollar.
Greek parliament approved new austerity measures
229 members of the 300-seat parliament in Athens accepted the agreement with creditors, paving the way for more emergency funds. The focus shifts now to the European Central Bank which must weigh the level of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) in order to help Greek banks to re-open after more than two weeks.
The ECB will also decide on monetary policy at 11:45 GMT followed by the ECB Press Conference led by Mario Draghi at 12:30 GMT. Before the ECB decision, it should be important to watch the release of Eurozone Consumer Prices at 9:00 GMT. If data fails to meet the market’s expectation, it could lead to a strong reaction in the EUR/USD.
Furthermore, Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers her testimony at 14:00 GMT along with the release of the Philadelphia Fed survey.
Today is our last trading day before our summer holiday break.We will leave for summer holiday from tomorrow until 31/07/2015 and will resume the signal service on August 3rd.
Until then we wish you successful trading and enjoyable summer days.
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
And the winner is…the U.S. dollar
Dear Traders,
After months of tortuous negotiations between Greece and its creditors, Greece finally capitulated to the creditor’s demands and implement measures even more severe than those rejected by Greek voters in the July 5 referendum on austerity. The deal must now pass the Greek parliament, which will be the next difficult hurdle for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greece will only receive its third aid package when Tsipra’s Coalition of the radical left will approve the reforms. The deal is controversial among critics and some call the proposal nothing more than asset stripping.
While it remains to be seen if the deal will allow the country to stand on its feet in the long-run and act as a foundation for economic revival, one thing is pretty clear: The uncertainty and trauma incurred over the past months have divided Europe and increased the mistrust amongst the parties. Furthermore, the relationships within the Eurozone have been strained as a result. This is why the pressure on the euro is likely to continue.
Three main reasons why the euro declined after the Greek deal
1. The ECB will have to aggressively continue its Quantitative Easing to stabilize the eurozone’s balance sheet.
2. The Federal Reserve could reinforce the confidence that a rate hike is justified given the fact that Greek risk has been averted.
3. The Eurozone ideal has been worn away given the high level of mistrust.
The British Pound first rose against the U.S. dollar and provided traders a nice gain from our long-entry. Later during the day, the greenback was king and sterling declined below $ 1.55. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies yesterday, making it the biggest winner of the Greek debt deal and the most attractive currency.
Today, there are some interesting data releases which should be important to watch:
8:30 UK Consumer Prices
9:00 EUR German & Eurozone ZEW Survey
12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales
(timezone: GMT)
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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
Quiet Friday? Focus on Sunday
Dear Traders,
There is not much news on the market. Economic developments in Greece and China pose a risk for the financial markets but at the moment, the tone is nevertheless optimistic.
Both of our major pairs ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar. While the euro took a short dip below 1.10, it recovered its losses until the end of the day and remained comfortable near 1.11.
The pound sterling remained range-bound and traded between 1.5410 and 1.5345.
What’s important for today?
Not much. The only piece of economic data comes from the U.K. with Trade Balance reports due for release at 8:30 GMT.
The focus will be on the summit of European Union leaders Sunday. EU leaders will determine whether Greece gets a new bailout, or be forced to leave the single currency. With that in mind we may see the EUR/USD opening with a gap again on Monday morning. This time, if the decision is ‘yes’ for Greece, the euro might rally in relief.
EUR/USD
Technically, the sentiment looks more bullish. If the euro is able to trade significantly above 1.1130, it may head for another test of 1.12 and further 1.13. However, below 1.0980 the euro could be vulnerable for further losses.
We wish everyone a beautiful weekend and a nice Friday.
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
Euro stable, GBP may find bottom
Dear Traders,
The Fed minutes had no significant impact on the U.S. dollar and failed to trigger any major market reaction. While most Federal Reserve officials believe that rates will rise in 2015, the central bank registered concern over Chinese growth pace and Greece. Policy makers saw the U.S. economy moving toward conditions that would justify an interest rate increase, while minutes also signaled a potential risk from China and Greece.
The euro remained stable above $ 1.10. Investors are still optimistic that a deal for Greece could be within reach. This is the last chance for Greece and Prime Alexis Tsipras has until midnight Thursday to present European leaders with a detailed economic reform plan in exchange for a new bailout. Once the full package has been put on the table, Eurogroup leaders will decide on a bailout extension at their Emergency Summit on Sunday.
The British Pound traded sharply lower against the greenback, marking a current support at 1.5330. It will now be interesting if GBP makes it again above 1.5420. We see a small hurdle at 1.5415 and a next resistance zone at 1.5465 until 1.5485. Below 1.5350 sterling may head for a test of 1.53.
The Bank of England is scheduled to decide on monetary policy today at 11:00 GMT. However, since no changes are expected, the impact on the British Pound should be insignificant.
U.S. Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.
Daily Forex signals:
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Dear Traders,
Only yesterday we were talking about difficult market conditions without sustained consistency but finally there has been some momentum, providing traders profitable chances in both major pairs.
The GBP/USD was the best performer yesterday, falling more than 150 pips from our short-entry. A next target for sterling bears could be at 1.5320, from where the British Pound may bounce off. Above 1.5550 we would favor a bullish stance again.
The EUR/USD should still be treated with caution. While the euro declined against the U.S. dollar and surprisingly showed a linear movement to the downside, the currency pair remains vulnerable for spiky moves. Greece promised new reform proposals but Europe’s leaders warned Tsipras that only a few days are left to reach a deal. Greece has now five days to commit to its reforms and accept the terms of the Eurozone’s financial support or face ejection of the euro region.
Euro-zone fiance ministers will hold a conference call today to weigh Greece’s new aid request. If the loan from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is granted, it would give the nation some breathing space.
FOMC Minutes of secondary importance today?
The Federal Reserve releases minutes of the last FOMC meeting at 18:00 GMT. No surprises are expected as Fed chair Janet Yellen failed to provide a clear timeline for a rate hike at her last press conference. Chances are that minutes are more hawkish, but given the recent turmoil in the financial markets, the Fed’s view may have changed since the last meeting. The impact on the dollar could therefore be muted today. Let’s wait and see.
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
Euro recovered its losses after ‘No’ vote
Dear Traders,
The euro slipped sharply to 1.0970 on Greece’s ‘No’ vote. Greece voted with a 61 percent majority against further austerity demanded by creditors, rejecting of further spending cuts and tax increases. While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras described the result as a “great victory”, seeing himself with a strengthened hand now, the result also significantly raises the chances of a Greek exit from the currency bloc. The euro group must now decide if a financial rescue of the country is still possible.
Euro-area leaders called for an emergency summit on Tuesday. The European Central Bank is meeting today to discuss extending its emergency credits to Greek lenders. As long as negotiations are ongoing between Greece and the euro group the ECB is unlikely to cut the emergency liquidity for Greek banks. The next important date is the July 20 deadline, when Greece is due to pay 3.5 billion euros to the ECB. A non-payment could lead to drastic steps such as an exit of the euro-area.
Even if contagion for other peripheral economies in the euro zone is likely to be contained, investors could remain risk-averse and wait and see what happens now.
The British Pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar last Friday. We see a next support at 1.55. With a significant break below 1.5480, sterling may slide towards 1.5430 and further 1.5350. Current resistances are seen at 1.5650 and 1.5770.
Apart from eurozone financial stability risks in the near term, market participants will keep an eye on the U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes from its June 16-17 meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of England is scheduled to decide on monetary policy on Thursday.
The most important piece of economic data this week will be the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, due for release today at 14:00 GMT.
We wish you a good start to the week and good trades.
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
U.S. Economic Data in Focus
Dear Traders,
Uncertainty dominates the markets which is reflected in the directionless sideways moves of the major currency pairs. These are not good conditions for traders as the lack of a trend does not provide greater profits. In addition, spontaneous and unexpected market reactions pose a greater risk to day-trades. The Greek debt crisis and possible global economic turmoil push back U.S. rate hike expectations, which is a reason why the dollar as a safe haven currency got no strength for a rally either.
On the bottom line, the market has currently no clear focus, neither on an imminent Federal Reserve liftoff, nor on a predictable outcome and the impact of the Greek crisis.
We will have to be patient even if we suffered losses recently. As soon as the general focus shifts again to economic data and rate hike speculations, we expect the market to provide more profitable chances for traders. The next big uncertainty is the Greek referendum on Sunday. Until then currencies may remain trading sideways.
Today’s economic data may trigger some price action:
7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
8:30 UK PMI
9:30 EUR Eurozone Teleconference (Greece Proposals)
12:15 USA ADP Employment Change
14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing
Daily Forex signals:
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.
We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
