After Hawkish Fed Focus Shifts To BoE

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and left the door open for one more rate hike before the end of the year. The Summary of Economic Projections showed 50bp fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously indicated. The Fed sees just two rate cuts next year which would put the funds rate around 5.1 percent.

The U.S. dollar rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and pushed both euro and pound sterling lower in turn.

This morning we see GBP/USD trading around 1.23. Below 1.2270 we expect further losses.

The focus today shifts to the Bank of England rate decision (due 13:00 UTC) while the BoE could go either way. Previous expectations were firmly in favor of another 25bp rate hike today but yesterday’s U.K. Consumer Price Index showed softening inflationary pressures which is why market pricing significantly shifts towards a rate pause now. However, according to a statement from UK Chancellor Hunt saying that “Inflation is still too high” and “It’s all the more important to stick to our plan to halve inflation”. In other words, a BoE 25bp rate hike is still well in the cards.

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Our trading ideas for today 21/9/23:

 

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2380

Short @ 1.2290

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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All Eyes On The Fed

Very little movement was seen in both pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the beginning of the week and before the FOMC meeting. In the euro we currently focus on a trading range between 1.08 and 1.06 while in the cable it will be interesting whether the pound also drops below 1.2330 and further towards 1.23. On the upside, resistance is seen at around 1.2550.

Today is Federal Reserve decision day and it is widely expected that the central bank will pause rate hikes. Instead, the focus will be on fresh economic projections and the dot plot forecast and whether another 2023 hike is in the cards. Traders expect that the Fed’s tightening campaign has ended. Thus, the U.S. dollar will rise if there are signals for further tightening, triggering a hawkish repricing of rate expectations.

The Fed decision and release of economic projections is scheduled for 18:00 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Our trading ideas for today 20/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0715

Short @ 1.0660

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2435

Short @ 1.2330

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15740

Short @ 15640

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Euro: Längste Verlustserie seit 1997

Der Euro bestätigte den 9. wöchentlichen Verlust in Folge, die längste Verlustserie seit 1997.

Die Gemeinschaftswährung fiel wie ein Stein in Richtung 1,0630, nachdem die Europäische Zentralbank am vergangenen Donnerstag die Zinssätze zwar abermals erhöht hatte, es jedoch Anzeichen dafür gab, dass die Zinssätze ihren Höhepunkt erreicht hatten. Das Rezessionsrisiko und die sich verschlechternden Stimmungsindikatoren in Deutschland sprechen gegen weitere Erhöhungen.

Ein Blick auf den Wochenchart zeigt, dass der Euro trotz seines steilen Rückgangs immer noch über dem entscheidenden Unterstützungsbereich um 1,05 liegt. Angesichts der jüngsten bärischen Stärke könnten wir uns vorstellen, dass das Paar die 1,06er-Marke testet, bevor ein Pullback in Richtung 1,08 ansteht. Allerdings wird der US-Dollar in dieser Woche eine wichtige Rolle spielen, so dass Händler wahrscheinlich die Entscheidung der US-Notenbank abwarten werden, bevor sie sich entscheiden, in welche Richtung sie gehen.

EUR/USD

Auch in dieser Woche stehen wieder zahlreiche Ereignisse an, darunter mehrere Zentralbankentscheidungen. Wir werden uns auf die Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank am Mittwoch konzentrieren, und obwohl allgemein erwartet wird, dass die Fed die Zinssätze in diesem Monat unverändert lässt, gehen Händler von einer weiteren Anhebung bis zum Ende des Jahres aus.

Von der Bank von England wird am Donnerstag eine Zinserhöhung um 25 Basispunkte erwartet. Im Falle einer dovishen Zinserhöhung oder genauer gesagt, wenn die BoE andeutet, dass die Zinssätze sich ihrem Höhepunkt nähern, wird das Pfund Sterling fallen.

 

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Euro: The Longest Losing Streak Since 1997

The euro confirmed a 9th consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 1997.

The common currency dropped like a stone towards 1.0630 after the European Central Bank raised interest rates last Thursday but there were signs that rates had peaked. Recession risk and worsening sentiment indicators in Germany fuel arguments against further hikes.

Looking at the weekly chart we see, that despite the euro’s steep fall, it remains still above the crucial support area around 1.05. Given the recent bearish strength we could imagine that the pair tests the 1.06-level before a pullback towards 1.08 is in the cards. However, the U.S. dollar will play a major role this week, so traders will likely wait for the Fed decision before deciding which way to go.

EUR/USD

This week is again loaded with event risk, including multiple central bank decisions. We will focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday and while the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged this month, traders access the prospects of a further hike by the end of this year.

The Bank of England is expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike on Thursday. In case of a dovish hike or more precisely, if the BoE give a hint that rates are near their peak, the pound sterling will fall.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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ECB Decision: 50/50 Chance Of A Rate Hike

Yesterday’s mixed U.S. inflation figures did not serve us well in terms of profitable trades as the dollar choppily whipsawed without a clear direction. This has led to a false breakout in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. While the core inflation gauge was in line with estimates, the 12-month reading came in slightly higher than forecast. Traders are mostly anticipating no monetary action from the Federal Reserve next week with a view to a possible hike in November.

Today, the European Central Bank will decide whether to hike rates again amid worsening economic conditions in the Euro Area. Sources have suggested the ECB policymakers are about to upgrade their inflation outlook for 2024 to above 3 percent. This would mean a hawkish repricing of rate hike expectations. In short, it is now a 50/50 chance on whether the ECB raises rates today or not.

From a purely technical view, we now see short-term momentum in favor of the dollar, but if the ECB hikes today, the euro will rally.

Let’s see.

The ECB decision is due at 12:15 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

In case the euro rallies, the next target is at 1.0835, while slipping below 1.0685, the next lower target is seen at 1.0630.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

U.S. CPI In Focus

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were little changed Tuesday with the focus today turning to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Market participants expect a mixed picture in the data while the key focus will be on whether a softer core inflation will be sufficient for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold.

Traders anticipate increased volatility around the CPI release.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Our trading ideas for today 13/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0675

Short @ 1.0725

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2515

Short @ 1.2440

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15660

Short @ 15580

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Daily Trading Signals

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 12/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0775

Short @ 1.0715

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2560

Short @ 1.2480

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15840

Short @ 15780

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Nach U.S. Dollarstärke etwas Erholung für Euro und Pfund?

Die vergangene Woche war durch einen stärkeren US-Dollar aufgrund höherer Treasury-Renditen gekennzeichnet, was sowohl den Euro als auch das britische Pfund nach unten drückte.

Aus technischer Sicht haben beide Währungspaare sekundäre Abwärtstrendkanäle ausgebildet, die nun eine gewisse Erleichterung für den Euro und das Pfund Sterling darstellen könnten.

EUR/USD

Der Euro berührte 1,0686, was der unteren absteigenden Trendlinie eines kurzfristigen Abwärtskanals entspricht. Oberhalb von 1,0760 stehen die Chancen gut für die Bullen mit einem höheren Ziel bei etwa 1,0840. Auf der Unterseite erwarten wir, dass die 1,0650-Unterstützung etwas Halt bieten wird.

Beim GBP/USD zeigt sich fast das gleiche Bild wie beim Euro. Nach dem jüngsten Tief bei 1,2445 könnten die Bären eine Verschnaufpause einlegen, so dass die Bullen die 1,2550 und 1,2630 anpeilen könnten. Sollte das Pfund jedoch unter 1,2440 fallen, liegt die nächste wichtige Unterstützung bei 1,24.

Was ist für diese Woche wichtig?

Am Mittwoch richtet sich das Augenmerk auf den US-Inflationsbericht. Es wird mit einem gemischten Bericht gerechnet: Die Kerninflation dürfte sich abschwächen, während die Gesamtinflationsrate von 3,2 Prozent auf 3,6 Prozent steigen dürfte.

Am Donnerstag richten sich alle Augen auf die Zinsentscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank. Bullen und Bären sind geteilter Meinung über die diesmonatige Entscheidung, während die Preise eher in Richtung einer Zinspause tendieren. Die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen verschlechtern sich, so dass dieser Monat die letzte Gelegenheit für die EZB sein könnte, die Zinsen zu erhöhen.

Am Donnerstag werden wir mehr wissen.

Wir wünschen allen eine gute und erfolgreiche Woche.

 

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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After U.S. Dollar Strength Relief For The Euro And Pound?

The last week was characterized by a strengthening U.S. dollar due to higher Treasury yields, pushing both euro and British pound lower in turn.

Looking at the technical picture, both currency pairs formatted secondary downtrend channels which now could be a reason providing some relief for the euro and sterling.

EUR/USD

The euro touched 1.0686 which corresponds with the lower descending trendline of a short-term downside channel. Above 1.0760 chances are in favor of bulls with a higher target at around 1.0840. On the downside we expect that the 1.0650-support will provide some hold.

Like the euro, we almost see the same picture in the GBP/USD. After a recent low at 1.2445, bears could take a breather, allowing bulls to go for 1.2550 and 1.2630. If, however, the pound falls below 1.2440, the next crucial support lies at 1.24.

What is important for this week?

On Wednesday the focus turns to the U.S. inflation report. A mixed report is expected with core inflation seen weakening while the headline rate is estimated to rise from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

On Thursday all eyes turn to the European Central bank rate decision. Bulls and bears are divided on this month’s decision while pricing is skewed towards a rate pause. Economic conditions deteriorate so this month might be the last opportunity for the ECB to raise rates.

We will know more on Thursday.

We wish everyone a good and successful week ahead.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Work-Life-Balance

This week went quite well in terms of trading and although the DAX eliminated some previous profits yesterday, we were able to close our performance on balance positive. Thus, we stand this week +41 pips in EUR/USD, +56 pips in GBP/USD and still +40 points in the DAX in profit. This is enough for us for now, which is why we will not invest much more today.

We advise traders again and again to set a weekly profit target and as soon as this is reached, to let the trading rest and dedicate themselves to life :)

In this sense, we wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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German translation:

Diese Woche lief handelstechnisch ganz gut und obwohl der DAX uns gestern noch einen Strich durch die Rechnung machte, konnten wir unsere Performance unterm Strich positiv abschließen. Somit stehen wir diese Woche +41 pips im EUR/USD, +56 pips im GBP/USD und noch +40 Punkte im DAX im Gewinn. Das reicht uns erstmal weshalb wir heute nicht mehr viel investieren werden.

Wir raten Tradern immer wieder sich ein Wochengewinnziel zu setzten und sobald dieses erreicht ist, das Trading mal ruhen zu lassen und sich dem Leben zu widmen :)

In diesem Sinne wünschen wir allen ein schönes Wochenende.

 

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.