Global Equities Rally, U.S. Dollar Weakens

Dear traders,

Global equities were on course for the best month on record amid a usually quiet Thanksgiving holiday week.

The U.S. dollar held its decline while speculation that Coronavirus vaccines and a possibly peaceful presidential transition are steps toward normalization in the economy drove U.S. shares higher and the Dow Jones to a record high.

Elsewhere, the euro benefited from the dollar’s weakness and rose back above 1.19 this morning. Also, the DAX was spurred by the market’s rally and touched an early September-high at 13383.

The only currency pair that treated water Tuesday was the GBP/USD remaining within an 80-pips trading range.

Today we have some key events coming up:

USD: Minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due in the evening (19:00 UTC)

USD: U.S. jobless claims, GDP and personal spending data (13:30 & 15:00 UTC)

GBP: U.K. expected today to deliver the government’s spending plans for next year.

 

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Strengthens on Better-Than Expected PMI Data

Dear traders,

The best performer Monday was the British pound that rallied as signs the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing a trade deal. The latest progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine bolstered the currency’s upward move.

Bulls in the GBP/USD profited while sterling rose to the highest level since early September. Looking ahead, the potential for progress in Brexit talks, growing optimism for a vaccine and fresh fiscal stimulus should keep the cable supported.

We bear in mind, that a Brexit deal is largely priced in to the pound, which is why a breakdown in talks would see a much larger move lower.

The euro experienced a sharp reversal after the U.S. dollar gained traction on better than expected flash PMI data. The monthly PMI report crushed market forecast as it came in at a five-year high.

From a technical perspective, not much has changed in the EUR/USD. Above 1.1920 gains may be extended towards 1.1960 whereas below 1.1790 the euro may slip towards 1.1690.

The U.S. dollar could experience bullish tailwinds in short-term time frames as robust U.S. economic data could downplay the urgency of another fiscal stimulus package or additional accommodation from the Federal Reserve.

 

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No Big Market Moves

Dear traders,

The British pound rose to a high of 1.3273 Tuesday as the U.K. and European Union edge closer to agreement on longstanding sticking points. A possible breakthrough could be announced as soon as Monday while there is still potential for the negotiations to collapse.

GBP/USD: The cable will now need to overcome the 1.33-1.3310 hurdle and if that bullish breakout happens, we will turn our focus to a higher target at 1.3480. On the downside, the 1.32-level will now play an important role and if the pound falls below 1.3190 we may see a dip toward 1.31.

No Big Market Moves

With the election uncertainty behind us, the market’s focus turned to Covid and the vaccines but we remember that wide distribution of a shot is still months away, which is why big market movements are currently missing. We may get some news on the stimulus front in the next weeks that could breathe new life into the market. We will wait and see.

EUR/USD: We still see a current resistance at 1.1940-50. If the euro, however, falls back below 1.1840 in short-term time frames it may extend losses toward 1.18 and 1.1750.

DAX: Traders should pay attention to breakouts either above 13280 or below 13000 that could generate further bullish or bearish momentum.

 

We wish you good trades!

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DAX Jumps To Almost 13300 on Covid-19 Vaccine Hopes

Dear traders,

Stocks surged amid Covid-19 vaccine developments that fueled optimism that the world will soon have a potential way out of the pandemic. However, questions about safety and efficacy of the shot remain while it is still too early.

The DAX jumped to the highest level in almost two months, reversing shy of 13300. Our profit target appeared to be small, compared to the fact that yesterday’s bullish move turned out to be a more than 400-points-jump.

The euro hit 1.1920 before price reversed. In short-term time frames we now expect further losses in the EUR/USD.

The cable failed to find a clear direction and traded between 1.3210 and 1.3115.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the instructions are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Euro And Pound With a Tailwind – Is The Rise Going To Continue?

Dear traders,

Basically, we got what we have been looking for – price breakouts that provided some profits for traders- even though not as big as we hoped for.

The EUR/USD broke above 1.1830 but stopped its rise at 1.1859 – for now. If the pair is able to hold above 1.18, we focus on a higher target at 1.1950. If bulls are however unable to stabilize the euro’s price above 1.1830, bears might regain control and push the pair back into its recent downtrend channel.

The GBP/USD broke above 1.31 and headed towards 1.3160 on the back of a weakening U.S. dollar on the one hand and a bigger-than-expected increase of the Bank of England’s QE program on the other hand. A higher target is seen at 1.32 while the 1.30-level turns into a crucial support again.

The Federal Reserve made no change to asset purchases while stressing that the U.S. economy needs more fiscal and monetary policy support, opening the door to a possible shift in coming months.

As for the U.S. election, Joe Biden holds his lead in many battleground states while President Donald Trump questions the credibility of the election. The results still remain uncertain.

This crucial trading week comes to an end and the last but important report will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due today at 13:30 UTC.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!

 

We wish you good trades!

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This Week To Set The Tone Until Year-End

Dear traders,

We welcome you to a crucial trading week that has a potential to set the tone for financial markets for the rest of the year.

The main event will be tomorrow’s U.S. election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in polls. However, the senate may matter more for the markets than the President since a so-called “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) scenario is believed to be priced in and if Biden wins the presidency but his party does not gain enough seats in the Senate than we will have the worst scenario for the market.

In short, a divided government will be poison for the markets while a shift in control in the Senate (blue wave congress) could quickly pass a large stimulus plan, which is considered market friendly. But we bear in mind, that despite a Biden lead, Trump has a narrow but viable path to an election win, even though the surprise 2016 election result is less likely this time.

Given the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is driving record numbers of people to vote by mail and counting all votes could take days, or weeks we may need to wait longer than usual to learn who won the presidential race this year.

Whatever the outcome, we will prepare for swings on either side to get the best out of the market’s reaction.

While the U.S. election is front and center in the coming days, we also have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meeting (Thursday) as well as the U.S. labor market report (Friday) on this week’s calendar.

The Bank of England is widely expected to add to its own bond-buying program as new coronavirus lockdowns put pressure on policy makers to act. The new lockdown in U.K. could also bolster talk of negative interest rates, which could weigh on the pound.

The Federal Reserve, which also meets this Thursday, has signaled that it’ll do what’s needed to keep borrowing costs contained.

This week will most likely be accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, which is why traders should prepare for larger and sharper market movements.

We wish everyone good trades and hopefully a good profit!

We wish you good trades!

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Secure Your Profit Now And Fasten Your Seat-belt For Next Week

Dear traders,

The European Central Bank stood pat for now and finally did not surprise the market at yesterday’s policy decision. Policy makers, however, paved the way for a fresh easing package in December. The ECB held its pandemic bond-buying program at 1.35 trillion euros, reiterating that it will run until at least June 2021 and won’t be stopped until the “crisis phase” of the pandemic is past.

The euro reacted in line with the market’s expectations and slid slightly lower to a low of 1.1650. We were able to book a good profit yesterday by trading our short entry.

Fasten your seat-belts for next week’s U.S. election while uncertainty remains elevated. Volatility is expected to pick up next week and traders around the globe prepare for large market movements.

We will be back on Monday and until then we wish you a wonderful and relaxing weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

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Final U.S. Presidential Debate Leaves Market Unaffected

Dear traders,

While the tone of the final U.S. presidential debate was much more civil that the first debate it gave traders little reason to shift their stances before the election on November 3 with the market showing no reaction during the debate.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against the euro and pound but no big market moves were seen Thursday.

The DAX broke below 12400 and slid to a low of 12342 which was only a few pips away from our profit target TP100. However, we were able to book a good profit before the index recovered its losses.

Today is the last trading day of the week and we will save our weekly profit and wish everyone a wonderful weekend!

 

We wish you good trades!

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USD Remains Weak, EUR And GBP With a Slight Tailwind

Good morning everyone!

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure amid optimism about progress on stimulus talks in Washington. White House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is hopeful for a stimulus agreement this week which would be bigger, better and retroactive. However, with the U.S. election looming the dollar’s fate will mainly hinge on the election outcome.

Looking ahead to the European Central Bank meeting next Thursday ECB President Christine Lagarde said the unexpectedly early pickup in coronavirus infections is a “clear risk” to the economic outlook, which could be a sign that policy makers are preparing for more monetary stimulus. Investors largely expect the ECB to wait until December before boosting its 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program. Updated projections for growth and inflation that could justify more action will be announced at the ECB meeting in December.

As anticipated in yesterday’s analysis, the EUR/USD broke its narrow price range and could now be heading toward 1.1880 or even 1.1915, provided that the 1.1850-level gives way to further bullish momentum in this pair.

The picture was completely different in the GBP/USD, which consolidated between 1.2980 and 1.2910 Tuesday.

 

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Pound Trades Resiliently Amid Brexit Headlines

Dear traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week.

Traders of the GBP/USD have been on a roller-coaster ride Friday with the pound failing to find a clear direction and trading choppily between 1.2963 and 1.2863.

The British pound was resilient to negative Brexit headlines after negotiations over a Brexit deal have stalled with Boris Johnson announcing on Friday that he will focus on preparations to leave the EU’s single market and customs union at the year-end without a trade deal. End of October/ Early November is the last likely moment a deal can be struck and implemented until year-end.

With 15 days to go until the U.S. election, polls show increasing odds of a Democratic sweep and the market thus sees increasing chances of larger economic stimulus. The upcoming election will determine main market moves and if polls suggest a too-close-to-call election volatility will rise quickly.

The final presidential debate before the U.S. election, between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, will be live from Nashville, Tennessee on Thursday.

 

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

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