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All Eyes On May’s Speech

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Dear Traders,

Those who traded yesterday’s consolidation in the GBP/USD had to struggle with volatile but choppy price swings, generating only losses ahead of today’s key event risk. Sterling traders are in the starting blocks for high volatility when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to give a speech on the Brexit approach and we hope for more profitable trading opportunities today. May’s speech will be closely watched as it is designed to set out the government’s position and goals over the upcoming Brexit negotiations. Traders will look for any hints as to whether the U.K. will pursue a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit. The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of a hard Brexit approach with the U.K. being likely to pull out of the European Union’s single market for goods and services. May will use her speech to explicitly say she expects the U.K. to leave the single market (hard Brexit), according to a person familiar with the matter. Given the fact that May is expected to be aiming for full separation from the EU, we expect the pound to remain under pressure. Pullbacks may therefore be an attractive opportunity to sell the pound at higher levels. However, we bear in mind that when market’s expectations are very high, there is a greater potential for disappointment and thus there is also a small chance of a short squeeze in the pound. In short, anything can happen today and we recommend traders to prepare for both bullish and bearish scenario even if the risk is to the downside.

PM May’s speech is scheduled for 11:45 UTC.

Until this morning, the pound traded sideways between 1.2085 and 1.1985 and the focus has therefore shifted to breakouts above or below this range. Bearing in mind that Monday’s gap was not yet closed, the pound might tend to test the 1.2170 area before falling back towards 1.1965. A significant break above 1.22 however, could send the pound toward 1.23. On the downside, the 1.1960-level needs to be broken in order to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

Before May’s important speech we have the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. Analysts are looking for an uptick in inflation while this report alone could help the pound strengthening in short-term time frames. With inflation being on the rise, the Bank of England could intend to raise interest rates in a next move, unless Brexit developments undermine the economy.

Trading in the EUR/USD was very quiet and none of our yesterday’s entries was triggered. Today, euro traders will watch the German ZEW Survey at 10:00 UTC, which could have a impact on the euro. The 1.0685-resistance area remains in focus and if the single currency climbs above that level we may see an extended upward move toward 1.07/1.0715.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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U.S. Dollars Recovers On Hawkish Fed Rhetoric

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some strength following a slew of hawkish Fed rhetoric. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated in a town hall meeting that the U.S. economy is doing quite well. She was optimistic on the labor market and inflation and wage growth, saying that inflation is close to the Fed’s 2 percent goal.

These hawkish remarks helped the greenback to recover from its recent lows. The euro peaked at 1.0684 before falling back toward the 1.06-support level. Below 1.0570 we may see further losses towards 1.0480.

The British pound took a brief glimpse above 1.23 but was not able to stabilize above that high level. The 1.21-level will now be back in focus and if the pound drops below that mark, we expect a next lower target to be at 1.20. The beginning of next week is going to be interesting for sterling traders as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will set out her Brexit vision in a speech on Tuesday. Recent speculation about a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ has increased the pressure on the pound.

Today we will watch important economic data releases such as U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC and University of Michigan Confidence due at 15:00 UTC. The Retail Sales report is expected to show an uptick in December and should this be confirmed, the dollar could recover even more quickly.

Have a nice weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Comes Under Selling Pressure After May Comments

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. While liquidity returns to the markets, providing a more volatile trading environment, there will be no top-tier economic reports until late in the week. Thus, with no market-moving data scheduled for release until Friday, trading could be quieter and prices more range-bound in the first half of the week.

Those who did a trading break last Friday and did not reinvest weekly profits (as recommended), have not missed out on anything. On the contrary, trading during U.S. payrolls release has once again proved to be more loss-making rather than profitable as high volatile swings bear a high risk for both pending and open orders. The U.S. dollar received a small boost as wage growth rose by 0.4 percent, giving reason for optimism that growth in the U.S. economy is poised to accelerate. While the focus was on wages, monthly payrolls fell short of analysts’ expectations but this decline is not enough to change the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance.

The euro tumbled toward the lower bound of 1.05 and we shall now turn our focus to the 1.0480-level. If the euro falls below that support level we expect further losses towards 1.04 and 1.0370. However, considering that the euro recently traded sideways, we anticipate the price action to be limited to a price range between 1.0640 and 1.0340.

The pound’s price action is dominated by political risk and fears of a so-called hard Brexit.The pound sterling traded lower against the greenback after comments by Prime Minister Theresa May on the U.K.’s European Union negotiations. May signaled regaining control of immigration and lawmaking are her Brexit priorities even if that means quitting Europe’s single market. Bearish momentum accelerated this morning, pushing the pound below its crucial support at 1.22. If the currency pair is unable to stabilize above 1.22, we expect further losses towards 1.2120 and 1.21. Looking at the technical picture we see that the descending trend line of the recent downward channel is currently at 1.2120, providing an attractive opportunity to buy sterling towards 1.22. A short-term resistance is however seen at 1.2270.

Apart from a busy docket of scheduled speeches from several central bank officials, the only interesting piece of economic data will be U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence on Friday.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound Near Post-Brexit Low as U.K. Sets EU-Exit Date

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Dear Traders,

The British pound came under huge pressure after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May set a March 2017 date to trigger Article 50 and begin exiting from the European Union. The pound subsequently went into a tailspin as market participants now prepare for a “hard Brexit“.

GBP/USD

The cable may face a next support around its post-Brexit low at 1.2798. Technically, we see an oversold situation in the 4- hour chart, which could increase the probability of some corrections toward the 1.29-level in the near-term. In case of a break below 1.2790 however, sterling could fall towards 1.2720.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot4-10-16

From the U.K. we have the Construction PMI scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the pound.

The euro traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar Monday. With no major market moving data we expect the 1.1160/50- area to lend a short-term support to the EUR/USD while a current resistance is still intact at 1.1250.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Investors’ Appetite For U.S. Dollars Will Determine This Week’s Price Action

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you the trading month of October. Even though, the last trading month has proved to be non-profitable for day traders, it was a great month for swing traders while our swing signal trades generated an overall profit of 357 pips in September. Also this month we will again provide swing- and long-term entries for subscribers to get the best out of the current market conditions.

The British pound declined gapped lower at the open of the trading week after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she will start pulling the Brexit trigger in the first quarter of 2017. May made a clear statement when she said on Sunday that they “will invoke Article 50 no later than the end of March next year.” From a technical perspective the support at 1.2915 is still intact and sterling bears may wait for a break below 1.29 in order to send the pound lower towards 1.2850. A current resistance is however seen around the 1.30-level.

The euro is still trading sideways within its recent trading range between 1.1250 and 1.1150. As long as the EUR/USD remains confined to a price range between 1.1280 and 1.1130 there is nothing new to report.

The focus this week will again shift to the U.S. Payrolls report on Friday while the report is expected to show steady labor-market improvement. An upbeat result may boost the U.S. dollar as it would bolster Federal Reserve rate hike speculation before year-end.

Today’s ISM Manufacturing Survey, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC will be important to watch. Supportive ISM data may push the dollar higher versus its counterparts.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Upward Movement To Be On Shaky Foundations?

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Dear Traders,

While we actually got the breakouts what we have been looking for, the market’s fluctuations proved to be limited to either side Monday. Sterling traders were able to pocket some profits with both long and short-entries whereas euro traders still struggle with the euro’s poor performance. The EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.1075 and 1.1015 and neither our sell attempt nor a later buy order provided a sustained profit. Consequently, euro traders will need some more patience and wait until market conditions improve.

The pound sterling climbed towards 1.31 as the leadership certainty in the U.K. provided some relief for the currency. Theresa May will be appointed as Britain’s next prime minister and even though May will have to resist pressure to rush into the Brexit negotiations, Britain’s second female prime minister is not seen in a hurry to trigger Article 50, the formal start of an EU exit.

In the meantime, it is going to be a big week for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who faces the U.K. parliament’s Treasury Select Committee today at 10:00 UTC, ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision. Economists expect the BoE to cut rates by 25 basis points, which would be the first rate cut since 2009. With this in mind sterling is expected to remain under pressure ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision.

Furthermore, two Fed officials are scheduled to speak today around 14:00 UTC, which could influence the dollar’s performance as long as they maintain a hawkish stance.

The euro rose towards 1.11 but the technical picture has not changed significantly. Long-term swing entries are available for subscribers.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co