Euro And Cable: Sideways Movement Continues

Dear Traders,

Despite better than-expected U.S. economic data the greenback refused to trade higher versus its major peers – this was at least the case in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Having already fully discounted a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, investors will now wait for fresh hints about the future rate hike path before entering new long-term positions.

The euro traded sideways and, as expected, the currency pair remained confined to a trading range of nearly 100 pips. While the support at 1.0560 is still intact the euro might tend to test the 1.0715-resistance level, before resuming its overall downtrend. However, if the euro is unable to trade above 1.0670 we will shift our focus to a renewed break below 1.0580.

The cable remained stuck between 1.2530 and 1.2385. A break above 1.2530 may send the pound slightly higher towards 1.2550 but for the pound to rise towards higher targets this resistance level must be significantly breached in order to ignite fresh bullish potential. On the downside we will keep an eye on a break below 1.24.

The Bank of England publishes the results of its annual bank stress tests alongside its Financial Stability Report at 7:00 UTC. Following the report, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, so sterling traders should keep an eye on the price development as the pound might be vulnerable to volatile swings.

From the Eurozone we have the German Unemployment Report scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC, followed by Eurozone CPI data at 10:00 UTC. Chances are that these reports will have a positive impact on the euro, pushing it towards 1.0715. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Madrid at 12:30 UTC.

Last but not least, it should be worth watching the release of upcoming U.S. data, such as the ADP report due at 13:15 UTC, PCE numbers at 13:30 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 UTC.

So it could be an interesting trading day with hopefully profitable trading chances.

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Is The U.S. Dollar Poised For A New Round Of Strength

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some of its strength, pushing the euro and cable lower. While the euro stopped its fall slightly above 1.0560, the British pound turned out to be Monday’s worst performer and dropped towards 1.2385. British companies are increasingly pessimistic about the future outlook and with the Brexit debate intensifying, the pound remains vulnerable to larger losses. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bearish breakout in the GBP/USD but we recommend traders waiting for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell sterling.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that Britain, rather than the Eurozone, would be the first to suffer from the consequences of a Brexit. When speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday he described a cocktail of political risks hanging over the global economy, including the Brexit vote, Donald Trump’s election and the looming Italian referendum. Draghi also signaled the ECB’s readiness to continue its monetary stimulus. At the ECB meeting next week, the central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of its bond-buying program.

EUR/USD – Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot29-11-16

Important economic data for today:

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA GDP Report

15:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

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More To Lose Than To Gain Amid Liquidity Drain

Dear Traders,

With many U.S. market participants being on holiday for a long weekend, there was not much consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar and given the unsteady fluctuation there was more to lose than to gain. With liquidity running short we recommend traders not investing much or doing a trading break until market liquidity stabilizes next week.

The euro was little changed and refrained from trading any higher than 1.0585. On the downside, it marked a fresh low at 1.0518 which was much to the displeasure of short traders as our short entry was triggered and quickly stopped out. We expect the euro to trade between 1.0610 and 1.0540 today whereas a break above 1.0615 may drive the euro higher towards 1.0640 or even 1.0660. Below 1.0540 we see chances of accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.05 and 1.0480.

The trading range in the GBP/USD narrowed and breakouts are becoming more likely in the near-term. Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. GDP report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. Any surprises may boost the price action in the cable.

As the US rests we do not expect big market movements but nonetheless the U.S. Advance Goods Trade Balance due at 13:30 UTC might be worth watching.

Have a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

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Quiet Trading On Thanksgiving?

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes did not provide any new insights but did confirm the market’s assumption that a December rate hike should be a done deal. The minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials saw a strengthening case to raise interest rates as the labor market improved ‘appreciably’, with some saying a hike should take place next month. The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus the euro while the common currency fell to a fresh one-year low.

As stated in yesterday’s analysis, we now see next support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0470 and if these barriers fall, the next stop could be at parity. A current resistance is however seen at 1.06.

U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, which is why we expect market movements to be limited amid a low liquidity environment. Let’s see.

The only piece of economic data will be the German IFO index due at 9:00 UTC, which could have a minor impact on the euro.

The British pound remains the only major currency to outperform the U.S. dollar and traded resiliently between 1.2470 and 1.2360. Sterling traders were looking in vain for any profitable movements and so we had to record some losses after three failed sell attempts. However, the technical picture has not changed and we still wait for a break of 1.2515 or 1.2350 respectively.

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GBP/USD: Still Room For Further Gains?

Dear Traders,

We finally saw some corrections in both major currency pairs at the beginning of this holiday-shortened week as investors took profit on long dollar positions. While the euro rose only moderately to 1.0650, the British pound proved to be the best performer and surged to a high of 1.2513. While we believe that the upward movement in the EUR/USD may be limited until 1.0660/90, there could be some room for further gains in the GBP/USD. If the cable is able to break above the 1.2515-level, the focus shifts to the higher target at 1.2550. As stated in previous analysis, a sustained break above 1.2550 could reinvigorate fresh bullish momentum, driving the pair even higher towards 1.2770. Current supports are however seen at 1.2380 and 1.23.

Euro bears should however wait for a renewed break below 1.0570 in order to sell euro towards 1.05.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The U.S. Existing Home Sales report due at 15:00 UTC is not expected to have a significant impact on the dollar.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Quiet Trading Over US Thanksgiving Holiday?

Dear Traders,

The market’s sentiment was recently strongly influenced by political events and while political risks in the Eurozone continue to build up, the euro went into a tailspin. With the Italian constitutional referendum coming in on December 4, the situation for the euro may deteriorate as political risks are rising across Europe.

Trump’s win seems to have reinvigorated populist sentiment across the continent and if the UK can Brexit, the US can elect Trump, it is also possible that France and Italy could pull out of the EU. In this uncertain political environment, the euro remains vulnerable to losses. However, bearing in mind that the euro is oversold in short-term time frames, we expect some corrections in the EUR/USD.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market-moving data. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday usually leads to low liquidity in the market, which is why we do not expect significant market movements this week. The only interesting piece of U.S. data will be Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are expected to confirm the hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve. Everything else than a Fed rate hike next month would be a big surprise.

From the Eurozone, we have the PMI Report (Wednesday) and the German IFO Report (Thursday) due for release this week. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg today at 16:00 UTC.

Technically we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.07 and 1.0530 in the near-term while a break above 1.0720 may invigorate some bullish momentum towards 1.0770 and 1.08 whereas a break below 1.0520 would increase the pressure on the currency pair.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling dropped towards 1.23 and sterling bears are eager to see whether the cable will break below that crucial support. After a break below 1.23 we see a next lower target at 1.2150. A break above 1.2550 however, would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

chart_gbp_usd_daily_snapshot21-11-16

From the U.K. , the only interesting piece of economic data will be the Autumn Budget Statement (Wednesday) and Friday’s GDP Report.

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Yellen Confirmed Rate Hike Expectations But Watch Out For Corrections Now

Dear Traders,

And the winners were once again: Dollar bulls. However, it was no surprise that the dollar further strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the likelihood of a December rate hike. She said that a rate increase “could well become appropriately relatively soon”, giving investors the green light to expect a move next month. Yellen cautioned that the Fed did not want to wait “too long”. Regarding the future economic outlook under Trump she said that policy makers “don’t know what’s going to happen” and that the Fed “will be watching the decisions that Congress makes and updating their economic outlook as the policy outlook becomes clearer”.

In a nutshell, the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates as Trump’s election has not altered the central bank’s short-term plans whereas in the future, “there’s a great deal of uncertainty”.

From a technical perspective, we all know that a rate increase is being well priced in BUT with more than three weeks to go before the FOMC rate decision in mid-December the dollar is clearly overbought, making corrections more likely in the near-term.

EUR/USD

The euro trades in a well-defined downward channel and based on that channel the euro might tend to drop towards 1.0525 before it corrects some losses. But be careful: The pair is oversold and we should now expect upcoming corrections towards 1.07 and 1.0750.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot18-11-16

The technical picture in the GBP/USD has not changed much. After dipping below 1.24 sterling bears will have to wait for a significant break below 1.2330 and further 1.23.

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. The only interesting event for euro traders could be Draghi‘s speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt scheduled at 8:30 UTC.

We gained again a good profit this week and wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

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The Euro Refrains To Trade Below 1.07

Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the EUR/USD Tuesday and the euro’s roller coaster ride gave traders no cause for joy. The euro peaked at 1.0816 before it ended the day in negative territory. We went long and short but no movement proved to be sustained. However, the 1.07-support level is still unbroken and as long as the euro remains firmly above that level, we shift our focus to an upside break above 1.0820.

There is no important economic data from the Eurozone today. From the U.S. we have the PPI Report at 13:30 UTC and Industrial Production figures at 14:15 UTC due for release but these reports are not expected to have a dramatic impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling fell towards 1.2380 after a report showed U.K. inflation unexpectedly slowed last month. Meanwhile, BoE policy makers shifted to a neutral stance with Carney saying in testimony that the neutral path is “appropriate” and officials are not considering expansion of any of the Bank of England’s programs. Sterling traders should pay attention to U.K. Employment Report at 9:30 UTC today as any surprises may lead to volatile swings in the GBP/USD. Technically we are waiting for a renewed break below 1.24 in order to sell the pound towards 1.2350. Above 1.2560 however, the bias may shift in favor of the bulls.

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Fed December Rate Hike Has Been Almost Completely Priced In; Time For A Correction?

Dear Traders,

After the dust settled around the U.S. Presidential elections, market participants returned to business as usual while risk appetite has been boosted by the Trump reflation trade. The focus now shifts back to Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while there was some concern that a Trump victory would give the Fed reason to delay further tightening. Instead the U.S. dollar and U.S. yields are running higher amid speculation Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending will spur rate hikes as inflation and economic growth pick up. Fed rate hike odds are currently holding above 80 percent and economic data this week may further support the Fed’s hawkish bias.

Most attention will be paid to Tuesday’s economic calendar with Eurozone GDP data, U.K. Consumer Prices and U.S. Retail Sales due for release. On Thursday, U.S. Consumer Prices are worth watching followed by Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. CPI figures should be strong enough to keep the Fed on track to hike rates next month while Yellen is expected to maintain her bias towards higher rates. Last but not least, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt on Friday. The European Central Bank is expected to hold its course while analysts focus on a small alteration in the size and scope of the QE program in December rather than a rate cut.

Overall, economic conditions for the Eurozone remain stable and euro traders should bear in mind that the recent dip in EUR/USD can be attributed to the dollar’s rate expectations. Thus, the appetite for USD will continue to dominate the price action for the time being.The currency pair tested the support area around 1.0770 and it will now be interesting whether this support proves to be strong enough to withstand the downward pressure. If the euro drops below 1.0770 we expect further losses towards 1.07 and 1.0630. Near-term resistances are seen at 1.0850 and 1.0950.

The GBP/USD dropped back below 1.26 but the decline came to a halt slightly above 1.25. If the pound is able to climb back above 1.26, we expect further gains towards 1.2720. Sterling bears should however focus on a break below 1.2440, reinvigorating fresh bearish momentum towards 1.2350 and 1.2270. U.K. CPI data on Tuesday will receive most attention but Wednesday’s U.K. Employment Report may also be worth watching.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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The Unimaginable Became Reality

Dear Traders,

What was feared is now official: Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

What a thrilling election night! The results showed a much closer contest than expected while markets are even more nervous as Republicans maintained their control of both houses. It is perhaps a little like the Brexit vote in June when many analysts and market participants could not imagine that Britons would finally vote for an exit of the EU. And then it happened: Brexit. Today it is the same scenario and the unimaginable becomes real. Trump showed surprising strength over Clinton, shocking financial markets.

The impact of a Trump presidency on the U.S. economy is yet uncertain and it is precisely this uncertainty that worries the market. As a trader however, we are not influenced by political developments as long as there is some volatility to drive our trades. As a result, we are looking back at a profitable trading night with the euro rising towards 1.1270, providing euro bulls a good profit of 128 pips by our long-entry. The British pound lagged behind as the upward momentum of the currency was initially limited by the future Brexit outlook.

EUR/USD: The euro was showing an upward trend this morning and based on this initial trend we are now looking for higher targets at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1420. If the euro breaks significantly above 1.1450, the next bullish target should be at 1.15. A trend reversal only occurs with a renewed break below 1.1040/20.

GBP/USD: The pound benefited from the sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar. A next resistance is seen at 1.2550 while a break above that level may invigorate fresh bullish momentum towards 1.2670. Sterling bears should however wait for a break below 1.24 in order to sell the pound.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co