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The MaiMarFX team
Archive for month: July, 2022
DAX: Bullish Breakout In The Making?
Today is our last trading day for the time being. Meanwhile, we look back at the month of July, which was characterized by losses and consolidations. While the EUR/USD traded quite well, we had to record losses with the DAX. But even such months are part of trading, albeit painful.
The U.S. PCE Index at 12:30 UTC could be of importance today in terms of movements in the U.S. dollar.
DAX
It sees as if bulls are working on a bullish breakout above 13500. If this happens, we may see a run for 14000. On the downside, the 13000-mark remains of major importance.
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Market Overreacted To Powell’s Comments
It happened as expected: The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bp and the market misinterpreted this month’s hike as a pivot towards a dovish monetary policy stance and thus sent the U.S. dollar tumbling. This is a classic market overreaction towards a potential monetary policy shift when the current guidance is already priced in. Caution is however warranted as we could be still far from the peak.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that another big increase is possible and projected rates to be at 3.8 percent in 2023, a projection that is above market expectations. Yet investors interpreted Powell’s comments that rate hikes will slow. The key phrase was that the pace of tightening would slow at some point but that didn’t flag a pivot to lower rates or even a pause, according to Fed watchers.
However, both euro and cable overshot following Powell’s comments. The best performer was the pound sterling that broke above the descending trendline and headed towards 1.22.
We believe that gains in the GBP/USD could be limited to 1.2250 as the pair entered overbought territory.
There were no breakouts in the EUR/USD which remains in its current trading range between 1.03 and 1.01.
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Will The U.S. Dollar Retreat On A 75bp Rate Hike?
It’s the Federal Reserve’s decision day and traders brace for a 75bp rate increase. The market’s key question is whether the Fed is nearing a projected 3.4 percent rate peak around year-end before Fed policy makers can start easing again to tackle the risk of recession. We bear however in mind that the market is often ahead of itself which is why talking about easing monetary policy could be premature at this point.
Nonetheless, the growing risk of a recession may force Fed policy makers to deliver smaller rate increases towards the end of this year. A shift in the Fed’s forward guidance may produce headwinds for the U.S. dollar in the coming months. So, we may see the greenback struggling to hold onto its gains even when the Fed hikes as expected.
In other words, a 75bp rate hike may not be a bullish catalyst for the dollar if additional rate hikes this year are not signaled. And the chance of a 100bp rate hike is at only 13 percent.
Given the summer lull we do not expect market movements to be extraordinarily large.
Daily Forex And DAX Signals:
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We wish you good trades!
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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Daily Forex And DAX Signals 26/7/22
Daily Forex And DAX Signals:
If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0225
Short @ 1.0180
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.2065
Short @ 1.2040
DAX® (GER30)
Long @ 13220
Short @ 13140
Monthly results 2022:
June 2022: +333 pips
May 2022: +172 pips
April 2022: +111 pips
March 2022: +689 pips
February 2022: +531 pips
January 2022: +766 pips
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
We wish you good trades!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Is The Fed Rate Hike Cycle Nearing Its Peak?
Welcome to a new trading week and our last one before the summer holiday break.
Top even risk is Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision which where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to raise rates by another 75bp after raising rates by 75bp in June. Powell has said following the Fed’s last 75bp hike that it is an unusually large one, he does not expect rate hike moves of that size to be common. However, the market is now dealing with the debate of a 75bp or 100bp hike and the U.S. dollar’s reaction to it. According to economists, there is no appetite for a full-point increase at any time during this rate cycle.
From a seasonal perspective, the last week of July historically exhibits lower volatility and volume, which is why extraordinary large market moves might be missing.
Looking further ahead, a survey of 44 economists forecast the Fed will raise rates by another 25bp in early 2023, reaching a peak of 3.75 percent before pausing and starting to cut rates before the end of the year.
We wish you good trades!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Steht der Zinserhöhungszyklus der Fed vor seinem Höhepunkt?
Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche und unserer letzten vor der Sommerpause.
Das meistbeachtete Risikoevent ist die FOMC-Zinsentscheidung am Mittwoch, bei der erwartet wird, dass der Fed-Vorsitzende Jerome Powell und seine Kollegen die Zinssätze um weitere 75 Basispunkte anheben werden, nachdem sie sie bereits im Juni um 75 Basispunkte erhöht hatten. Powell sagte nach der letzten Zinserhöhung der Fed um 75 Basispunkte, dass es sich um eine ungewöhnlich große Anhebung handele und er nicht erwarte, dass Zinserhöhungen in dieser Größenordnung üblich seien. Der Markt befasst sich nun jedoch mit der Debatte über eine Anhebung um 75 oder 100 Basispunkte und der Reaktion des US-Dollars darauf. Nach Ansicht von Wirtschaftsexperten besteht zu keinem Zeitpunkt in diesem Zinszyklus Appetit auf eine Anhebung um einen ganzen Punkt.
Aus saisonaler Sicht sind in der letzten Juliwoche die Volatilität und das Volumen traditionell geringer, weshalb außergewöhnliche große Marktbewegungen diese Woche ausbleiben könnten.
Mit Blick auf die Zukunft prognostiziert eine Umfrage unter 44 Ökonomen, dass die Fed die Zinsen Anfang 2023 um weitere 25 Basispunkte anheben und einen Höchststand von 3,75 % erreichen wird, bevor sie eine Pause einlegt und vor Ende des Jahres mit Zinssenkungen beginnt.
Wir wünschen gute Trades!
Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.
Copyright © 2022 MaiMarFX.
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Euro Outlook Remains Bearish Despite ECB Rate Hike
The European Central Bank joined the rate hiking party and raised interest rates by 50bp, instead of 25bp. The euro reacted to the rate hike with an initial jump toward 1.0278 but gains were capped at that level. It is not surprising that the euro’s upward potential was limited with euro-zone break-up risks rising. Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned, throwing the country into turmoil and putting it on course of snap elections as early as October. The ballot may take place on October 2.
Political chaos in Italy adds to the litany of problems for the European Union, which is already grappling with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the threat of a recession.
Given all the eurozone troubles we remain bearish on the euro. Below 1.0080, we expect more losses to come. Above 1.0280, the euro may test the 1.0350-resistance.
Have a good weekend.
Our EUR/USD trading ideas for 22/7/22:
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EUR/USD
Long @ 1.0235
Short @ 1.0165
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
We wish you good trades!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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ECB Decision: How Will The Euro React?
It’s ECB decision day and it won’t be an easy task for ECB policy makers. The euro rose to a high of 1.0273 in anticipation of a bigger-than-expected rate increase today. Traders are now placing almost 50 percent odds on a half-point hike. And while we know that the market often gets ahead of itself, it may need to correct premature assumptions according to the old adage “buy the rumour but sell the fact”. There is another crisis looming in the EU: Italy’s government appears once again to be on the brink of collapsing. The markets would want to see Prime Minister Mario Draghi remaining in power because he brought stability to Italy. His departure could force the ECB to dilute or delay details of its new bond crisis tool. The tool is intended to curb unwarranted spikes in sovereign yields. If Draghi goes, Italian bond yields will rise on heightened political uncertainty. The political turmoil in Italy could thus complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade.
How will the euro react?
The common currency will rise if the ECB raises interest rates by 50bp today while signaling a faster-than-expected pace of policy tightening. However, there is a risk that a bigger hike damages the ECB’s future guidance, a risk the central bank may be unwilling to take. Even in case of a euro rise, it will probably be limited.
The euro will fall if the ECB hikes by only 25bp.
However, the devil is in the detail, so we will brace for heightened volatility today and wish everyone good trades.
The ECB rate decision is scheduled for 12:15 UTC. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 14:15 UTC.
EUR/USD: Potential SHS-pattern to predict upcoming losses?
As long as the euro trades below 1.0280, a head-shoulders-pattern could come into play as soon as the pair falls below 1.01. Another test of the parity level would be a next target for euro bears. The pattern becomes void if the euro breaks above 1.0275.
Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.
Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:
If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.
We wish you good trades!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.
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EZB Zinsentscheidung: Wie wird der Euro reagieren?
Heute ist der Tag der EZB-Entscheidung, und es wird keine leichte Aufgabe für die Währungshüter der EZB sein. Der Euro stieg in Erwartung einer unerwartet starken Zinserhöhung auf ein Hoch von 1,0273. Händler rechnen nun mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von fast 50 Prozent für eine Anhebung um einen halben Prozentpunkt. Und da wir aber wissen, dass der Markt oft vorschnell handelt, muss er möglicherweise verfrühte Annahmen korrigieren, gemäß dem alten Sprichwort “buy the rumour but sell the fact”. In der EU zeichnet sich derweil eine weitere Krise ab: Italiens Regierung scheint wieder einmal kurz vor dem Zusammenbruch zu stehen. Die Märkte würden es gerne sehen, wenn Ministerpräsident Mario Draghi an der Macht bliebe, denn er hat Italien Stabilität gebracht. Sein Abgang könnte die EZB dazu zwingen, die Details ihres neuen Kriseninstruments für Anleihen zu verwässern oder zu verzögern. Mit diesem Instrument sollen ungerechtfertigte Anstiege der Staatsanleiherenditen eingedämmt werden. Wenn Draghi geht, werden die italienischen Anleiherenditen aufgrund der zunehmenden politischen Unsicherheit steigen. Die politischen Unruhen in Italien könnten somit die Bemühungen der Europäischen Zentralbank erschweren, die Zinssätze zum ersten Mal seit einem Jahrzehnt anzuheben.
Wie wird der Euro reagieren?
Die Gemeinschaftswährung wird steigen, wenn die EZB heute die Zinssätze um 50 Basispunkte anhebt und gleichzeitig signalisiert, dass sie ihre Geldpolitik schneller als erwartet straffen wird. Es besteht jedoch die Gefahr, dass eine größere Anhebung die künftigen Leitlinien der EZB beeinträchtigt, ein Risiko, das die Zentralbank möglicherweise nicht eingehen will. Selbst wenn der Euro also steigen sollte, wird dies wahrscheinlich nur begrenzt möglich sein.
Der Euro wird fallen, wenn die EZB die Zinsen um lediglich 25 Basispunkte anhebt.
Der Teufel steckt jedoch im Detail, so dass wir uns heute auf eine erhöhte Volatilität einstellen und allen gute Trades wünschen.
Die Zinsentscheidung der EZB ist für 14:15 Uhr angesetzt. EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde wird um 16:15 UTC sprechen.
EUR/USD: Mögliches SKS-Muster zur Vorhersage bevorstehender Verluste?
Solange der Euro unter 1,0280 gehandelt wird, könnte ein Schulter-Kopf-Muster ausgespielt werden, sobald das Paar unter 1,01 fällt. Ein weiterer Test des Paritätsniveaus wäre ein nächstes Ziel für die Euro-Bären. Das Muster wird jedoch hinfällig, wenn der Euro über 1,0275 ausbricht.
Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.
Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.
Copyright © 2022 MaiMarFX.
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We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
