Inflation ist das größte Risiko

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Der Krieg in der Ukraine geht in die dritte Woche und die Aussichten für die Finanzmärkte sind ernsthaft ungewiss. Globale geopolitische Risiken, eine Verlangsamung des Wachstums, hohe Inflation und Zentralbanken, die gezwungen sein werden, ihre Geldpolitik zu straffen, verstärken die Besorgnis über die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft.

Das größte Risiko ist die Inflation. Es wird erwartet, dass die U.S. Notenbank die Zinsen am Mittwoch um 25 Basispunkte anheben wird. Der Fokus wird jedoch auf der offiziellen Prognose der Fed und dem Ausblick, jenseits der sechs bereits eingepreisten Zinserhöhungen in diesem Jahr, liegen. Die Fragen werden daher lauten: Wie hoch könnten die Zinsen letztendlich steigen und wie schnell werden die Währungshüter handeln, um dorthin zu gelangen. Die sogenannte Dot-Plot Zinsprojektion der Fed wird daher beim Mittwoch Statement eine Schlüsselrolle spielen.

Abgesehen von der Fed wird auch von der Bank von England am Donnerstag die dritte Zinserhöhung in Folge erwartet.

Was erwarten wir technisch in beiden EUR/USD und GBP/USD Paaren?

Im Vorfeld der FOMC-Entscheidung am Mittwoch gehen wir von weiterer USD-Stärke aus mit tieferen Zielen bei 1.0730-1.07 im EUR/USD und 1.2970-1.2950 im GBP/USD.

GBP/USD: Sofern 1.2950 halten sollte, könnte der Cable bei einer hawkischen BoE eventuell einige seiner Verluste in Richtung 1.32 gutmachen.

EUR/USD: Sollte es dem Euro nicht gelingen über 1.1050 auszubrechen, bleiben die Chancen zugunsten der Bären mit nächsten niedrigeren Zielen bei 1.07 und 1.0640.

 

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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The ECB’s Hawkish Surprise

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The European Central Bank unexpectedly accelerated its wind-down of monetary stimulus which came as a surprise for market participants as it signals that the ECB is more concerned about inflation than the implications of the war. Adjustments in interest rates would take place “some time” after the end of asset purchases. In other words, yesterday’s decision can be described as hawkish while a first rate hike before the end of the year is still in the cards.

The EUR/USD surged to a high of 1.1121 on the ECB’s hawkish surprise but sellers quickly took the opportunity to sell the single currency on a higher note. We will now wait for a decline below 1.0970 in order to sell euros towards 1.09 or on the other side, a bullish break above 1.1170 to shift the focus to a test of 1.1220-30.

EUR/USD Trading ideas for 11/3/22:

Long @ 1.1035, Short @ 1.0980

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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ECB 2022 Rate Hike Off The Table?

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The anti-risk U.S. dollar weakened while we saw rebounds across the board Wednesday. The sentiment was lifted yesterday following a report that Ukraine is open to discussing Russia’s demand of neutrality as long as it’s given security guarantees. Volatility is however not over and the outcome of the war in Ukraine is still a big unknown.

Today traders will turn their eyes to the European Central Bank decision and ECB press conference at 12:30 UTC. At the same time, we will have U.S. inflation data due for release.

What to expect from the ECB?

While the ECB was already attempting to suppress the market’s rate hike speculation in 2022 before the threat to economic growth from Russia’s invasion began to rise, the new situation will possibly only harden their position. With the implications of the war in Ukraine still uncertain, it will be too early to send a hawkish message this month. While even higher inflationary pressure pushes policy makers toward policy normalization, the duration of the war could delay the exit from the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy.

In short, with chances of a 2022 rate hike tending towards zero, further gains in the EUR/USD pair might be limited.

EUR/USD – Strong rebound

Following yesterday’s incredible ‘risk on’ day with the euro’s rise towards 1.11, we may see some bullish extension until approximately 1.1170 before selling pressure accelerates again. Bears will watch out for a fresh decline below 1.0940 in order to sell euros towards 1.07.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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www.maimar.co

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EZB 2022 Zinsanhebung vom Tisch?

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Der Anti-Risiko U.S. Dollar schwächte sich ab, während wir am Mittwoch starke Erholungen auf breiter Front sahen. Die Stimmung wurde gestern nach einem Bericht aufgehellt, dass die Ukraine bereit sei, Russlands Forderung nach Neutralität zu diskutieren, solange es Sicherheitsgarantien gäbe. Die Volatilität am Markt ist jedoch noch nicht vorbei während der Ausgang des Krieges in der Ukraine noch ungewiss bleibt.

Heute werden Trader ihre Augen auf die Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank und die Pressekonferenz der EZB um 14:30 Uhr richten. Zur gleichen Zeit werden auch die U.S. Inflationsdaten zur Veröffentlichung anstehen.

Was ist von der EZB zu erwarten?

Während die EZB bereits bevor die Bedrohung des Wirtschaftswachstums durch die Invasion Russlands zuzunehmen begann, versuchte, die Zinserhöhungsspekulationen des Marktes für dieses Jahr zu unterdrücken, so wird die neue Situation die vorsichtige Position der Zentralbank möglicherweise nur erhärten. Da die Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine noch ungewiss sind, wird es in diesem Monat noch zu früh sein um eine hawkische Botschaft auszusenden. Während ein zunehmend höherer Inflationsdruck die Währungshüter zu einer Normalisierung der Geldpolitik drängt, könnte die Dauer des Krieges den Ausstieg aus der expansiven Geldpolitik der EZB verzögern.

Kurzum gesagt: Da die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer EZB Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2022 aktuell eher gegen Null tendiert, könnten weitere Gewinne im EUR/USD Paar begrenzt sein.

EUR/USD – Starke Erholung

Nach dem gestrigen unglaublichen Risikotag mit dem Anstieg des Euros auf knapp 1.11 könnten wir eventuell noch eine Ausdehnung bis etwa 1.1170 zu sehen bekommen, bevor der Verkaufsdruck wieder zunimmt. Bären werden hingegen auf einen erneuten Rückgang unter 1.0940 achten, um den Euro in Richtung 1.07 zu verkaufen.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

 

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Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals

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Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0935

Short @ 1.0885

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3140

Short @ 1.3080

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13340

Short @ 13220

ETH/USD

Long @ 2760

Short @ 2590

 

Monthly results 2022:

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

Could ECB Decision Offer Some Breathing Space For The Euro?

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It’s Tuesday and we are back at our trading desks.

Markets have been in a tailspin since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. And the war continues.

While the invasion of Ukraine remains a source of fundamental volatility for the euro and other assets, traders look to the European Central bank decision this Thursday that may offer the euro some breathing space – at least in short-term time frames.

EUR/USD – Going Downhill

The euro slid toward a low of nearly 1.08 on fundamental risk stemming from the war in Ukraine and the collateral damage. If the euro holds, however, above 1.0770 we will shift our focus to a short-term resistance zone between 1.10-1.1050. Falling below 1.0770 could see lower targets at 1.0740 and 1.0650.

GBP/USD – On the way towards 1.30?

The cable’s slide below 1.3150 opens the door for a potential leg down towards 1.30 but the downward move is unlikely to be straight-lined given the oversold situation. We expect that the pair will correct some of its losses towards at least 1.32 before falling further down.

DAX – Sell-Off

The index slid even below 12600 but could stop its fall slightly before 12400. If the index is unable to stabilize above 13800, we could see a dive towards 11300.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Panic Eased After Reports Of Fire At Ukraine Nuclear Plant

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Initial panic eased in many assets after reports of a fire at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine hit the headlines. The fire “has not affected ‘essential’ equipment,” since the fire was in an administrative building. The market’s panic eased somewhat as investors weighed the incident.

Apart from the developments in Ukraine, traders will watch the key monthly U.S. employment report today at 12:30 UTC.

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Monthly results 2022:

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals 3/3/22

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Demand for safe havens moderated a little while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell backed a quarter-point rate hike this month. He also indicated the Fed may have to take tougher action if price pressures don’t start to ease. For the market, there was no surprise.

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals 3/3/22:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1130

Short @ 1.1085

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3420

Short @ 1.3370

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 14080

Short @ 13990 Trade has hit profit target

ETH/USD

Long @ 2960

Short @ 2890

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

Monthly results 2022:

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

The Future Is Uncertain

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What is certain is that the future is uncertain at this moment with the Ukraine-Russia crisis deteriorating. Investors fear that the crisis will get worse before it gets better with the result of a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 15:00 UTC before the House and Senate panel. Traders are waiting for hints of a potential half percentage-point rate hike this month. If Powell acknowledges the risks created by the conflict and signals on high inflation, the dollar will rise.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1080, the euro may drop towards 1.10. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.12-1.1250.

GBP/USD: Below 1.3240 we will focus on a next target at 1.3175. Below 1.3170, our next lower target will be 1.30. A short-term resistance is seen at 1.3550.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Follow us on social media:

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Downside Gaps Filled, What’s Next?

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Downside gaps were filled on Monday in all of our trading instruments.

The EUR/USD pair recovered its losses towards 1.1250 and thus filled its opening gap. We are now waiting for price breakouts either above 1.13 or below 1.11.

The GBP/USD pair returned into its sideways price range between 1.3440 and 1.3350. We will watch out for price breakouts above or below that range.

The DAX hit a short-term bullish profit target at 14500 while filling its opening gap from yesterday. Prices above 14900 or below 13600 will draw attention.

 

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1235

Short @ 1.1190

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3440

Short @ 1.3380

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 14480

Short @ 14390

ETH/USD

Long @ 2940

Short @ 2820

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

Monthly results 2022:

February 2022: +531 pips

January 2022: +766 pips

 

Results 2021:

December 2021: +61 pips

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips