Will Powell Send A Hawkish Message Despite Delta?

It might be a big day for traders and big decision for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who will have to decide which message he conveys. Even if the delta variant creates further uncertainty, the Fed must decide whether the costs of extending the commitment to maximum stimulus have come to outweigh the benefits. The risk of bubbles and financial instability is growing, so it makes sense to phase out quantitative easing. This would be positive for the U.S. dollar which could climb to fresh highs on such confirmation. In the opposite case, if the Fed delays plans to taper its bond purchases as expected, we could see a sell-off in the greenback, pushing other counterparts higher in turn.

Powell’s highly awaited symposium speech is scheduled for today at 14:00 GMT.

Going into today’s event, chances are slightly in favor of the dollar this morning.

EUR/USD

The pair marked a short-term resistance at around 1.1775. Above 1.1780, we see a next target at 1.1815. Breaking above 1.1860 could see a test of 1.1890 and possibly even a run for 1.1940. Dollar bulls will wait for a renewed break below 1.1725 and more importantly below 1.17 in order to push the pair lower towards the crucial 1.16-support.

GBP/USD

The pair rebounded and as long as it holds stable above 1.3650-10, we pencil in higher targets at 1.3830 and 1.39. An upside break of 1.3910 could spur bullish action towards 1.40. Breaking, however, significantly below 1.36 could pave the way for a sell-off towards 1.34.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

We wish you good trades!

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Preparing For Potential Short Squeeze

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to tread water but traders are on the starting blocks, waiting for bigger movements by tomorrow.

While the U.S. dollar was relatively firm and could further strengthen if the Federal Reserve assures, they are ready to taper stimulus, we also prepare for a potential short squeeze in case of any disappointment.

EUR/USD

The pair marked a short-term resistance at around 1.1775. Above 1.1780, we see a next target at 1.1815 (orange rectangle). Breaking above 1.1860 could see a test of 1.1890 and possibly even a run for 1.1940. Dollar bulls will wait for a renewed break below 1.1725 and more importantly 1.17 in order to push the pair lower towards the crucial 1.16-support.

GBP/USD

The pair rebounded and as long as it holds stable above 1.3650-20, we pencil in higher targets at 1.3830 and 1.39 (orange rectangle resistance zones). An upside break of 1.3910 could spur bullish action towards 1.40. Breaking, however, below 1.36 could result in a sell-off towards 1.34.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP report today at 12:30 UTC.

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Traders Reluctant Ahead Jackson Hole

Not much was going on in the FX market on Tuesday as traders are holding back ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium which takes place from Thursday through Saturday. Chances are currently in favor of riskier assets with the market preparing for a potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s taper timeline. The fast-spreading Delta variant may cause policy makers to potentially rethink the Fed’s taper timeline, which is why we might not get a hawkish surprise at the symposium. Continued central bank stimulus would represent a significant tailwind for risk assets and would thus lead to a sell-off in the U.S. dollar.

Traders should therefore be prepared for a potential short squeeze in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday at 14:00 GMT.

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Profitable Start To The New Week

Monday started off with a profit for traders as dollar bulls took a breather, pushing other currencies higher in return. As expected, we thus saw some rebounds in short-term time frames. The British pound rebounded from oversold price levels and took out the 1.37-barrier. We went long in the GBP/USD at 1.3665 and were able to take profit around 1.37. We now pencil in a next resistance zone between 1.38-1.3830.

The rebound in the EUR/USD proved to be slightly smaller with the euro hitting an intraday high at 1.1750.  Above 1.1770, we expect the pair to test 1.18 and possibly even the area around 1.1830.

The DAX tested the 15800-level on its hold after the short-lived breakout above 15920 failed to provide any follow-through. Our short entry provided traders a good profit. We continue to pay attention to a sustained break above 15920 in order to shift the focus to 16050.

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All Eyes on Jackson Hole This Week

We are back from our holidays and back at the trading desks, relaxed and revived. We hope that all of you are happy and healthy too.

The U.S. dollar has gained traction in August as investors sought safe havens amid rising risk aversion in the wake of concerns about Covid, the tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus and economic growth. Volatility was notably higher in recent days and traders brace for turbulences if anxiety continues.

Also, market participants are on high alert ahead of the August 26-28 symposium in Jackson Hole, an annual event that has been the setting for important announcements in the past. Traders view it as a potential venue for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lay out the timing of the Fed’s expected move to taper its bond purchases. Traders hope for more clarity at the annual conference and want to hear from the central bank on when it will reduce its $120 billion of monthly bond purchases. While many market participants expect a taper by December 2021, the greenback’s rise could gain momentum if we get an exact timeline this week. The opposite could however happen in case Powell refrains from delving into the policy outlook during the symposium. Disappointment could thus lead to a sell-off in the dollar. We could know more on Thursday.

From a technical perspective and after the U.S. dollar has gained ground against other major currencies, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were approaching crucial support barriers last week. The sell-off eased somewhat at the beginning of this week while the euro and cable seem to start a small rebound.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been in a downtrend since May 2021.

EUR/USD – 1.16- A make-it or break-it level

After the euro broke below 1.17, traders have shifted their focus to the crucial 1.16-support. If 1.16 breaks significantly, we could see a sharp sell-off with lower targets at 1.14 and 1.10. If 1.16, however holds, we anticipate rebounds towards 1.18 and 1.19. In short-term time frames we now expect the pair to trade between 1.1760 and 1.1640.

GBP/USD

After failing to climb back above 1.39, the cable went downhill towards 1.36 and thus entered its medium-term support zone which extends from 1.3650 to 1.34. We expect the pair to trade between 1.3850 and 1.3450 now. We bear in mind that the cable is currently in oversold territory, making rebounds more likely.

DAX

The index trended upwards after dipping towards 15600 last week. A break above 15920 could lead to another test of 16000 and maybe even an upward extension towards 16100. A crucial support zone is currently seen at around 15500.

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Fokus liegt auf Jackson Hole diese Woche

Wir sind aus unserem Urlaub zurück und wieder mit frischer Kraft am Trading Desk. Wir hoffen, dass die meisten von Ihnen sich bester Gesundheit erfreuen und ebenfalls fit und munter sind.

Der U.S. Dollar hat im August an Zugkraft gewonnen denn Investoren bevorzugten wieder vermehrt sichere Häfen inmitten steigender Risikoscheu durch Sorgen über Covid, die Reduzierung des Federal Reserve Stimulus und das Wirtschaftswachstum. Die Volatilität war in den letzten Tagen deutlich höher und Trader stellen sich auf Turbulenzen ein, sollten die Sorgen anhalten.

Marktakteure sind zudem auf der Hut im Vorfeld des Wirtschaftssymposiums in Jackson Hole am 26.-28. August. Das jährliche Event diente in der Vergangenheit oftmals als Umfeld wichtiger Verkündigungen. Trader sehen es als potenzielle Gelegenheit für Federal Reserve Präsident Jerome Powell den Zeitplan zur erwarteten Reduzierung der monatlichen Anleihekäufe (Taper) darzulegen. Es wird bei der Jahreskonferenz auf mehr Klarheit gehofft denn Trader wollen wissen, wann genau die monatlichen Ankäufe in Höhe von 120 Milliarden Dollar reduziert werden. Während die meisten Marktakteure von einem Taper bis Dezember 2021 ausgehen, so könnte die Dynamik im Dollar zunehmen, sollte es einen exakten Zeitplan geben. Das Gegenteil könnte hingegen der Fall sein, falls Powell während des Symposiums keine Vertiefung in den geldpolitischen Ausblick wagt. Die Enttäuschung könnte somit zum Abverkauf im Dollar führen. Wir könnten am Donnerstag mehr wissen.

Aus der technischen Sicht und nachdem der U.S. Dollar an Boden gewann gegenüber anderen Hauptwährungen, näherten sich sowohl der EUR/USD als auch der GBP/USD letzte Woche wichtigen Unterstützungszonen. Der Abverkauf hat allerdings zu Beginn dieser Woche etwas nachgelassen und der Euro und Cable scheinen aktuell zu einer kleinen Erholung bereit zu sein.

Beide Paare EUR/USD und GBP/USD befinden sich seit Mai 2021 in einem Abwärtstrend.

EUR/USD – 1.16 als Knackpunkt

Nachdem der Euro die 1.17-Marke durchbrach richteten Trader ihren Fokus auf die gewichtige 1.16-Unterstützung. Sollte diese deutlich gebrochen werden, könnten wir einen stärkeren Abverkauf erleben mit tieferen Zielen bei 1.14 und 1.10. Falls 1.16 hingegen standhält, rechnen wir mit Erholungen in Richtung von 1.18 und 1.19. Kurzfristig erwarten wir das Paar zwischen 1.1760 und 1.1640 handelnd.

GBP/USD

Nachdem das 1.39-Level nicht zurückerobert werden konnte, ging es bergab Richtung 1.36 und damit betrat der Cable die Unterstützungszone welche sich von 1.3650 bis 1.34 erstreckt. Wir erwarten das Paar nun zwischen 1.3850 und 1.3450. Wir merken allerdings an, dass sich der Cable momentan im überverkauften Bereich befindet, was Erholungen wahrscheinlicher macht.

DAX

Der Index tendierte wieder aufwärts nachdem es letzte Woche bis fast 15600 runter ging. Ein Ausbruch über 15920 könnte zu einem erneuten Test von 16000 führen und eventuell sogar zu einer Ausdehnung bis 16100. Auf der Unterseite sehen wir aktuell eine wichtige Unterstützungszone um 15500 herum.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Summer Trading Break

Summer trading break:

There will be no signal service between August 2 and August 20.

We wish you all a wonderful rest of the summer! Stay healthy and happy.

We will be back on August 23.

The MaiMarFX Team

 

EUR/USD And GBP/USD: Watch Out For Pullbacks

The euro was yesterday’s best performing currency while climbing towards 1.19. Bulls in this pair, however, will have to be somewhat cautious now, as the 1.19-area could prove as a short-term resistance. In case of a sustained break above 1.1915, we may see a test of 1.1970. On the downside, the 1.18-mark is seen as a current support.

The pound sterling extended its rebound to a high of 1.3982 amid an overbought situation. We bear in mind that the psychological 1.40-barrier is of crucial importance for traders so we may see some pullback now.

The DAX continues its consolidation phase between 15900 and 15000. We will keep tabs on price breaks above or below that range.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20.

We wish you all a wonderful rest of the summer! Stay healthy and happy. We will be back on August 23.

We wish you good trades!

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No Big Movements For Traders

The FOMC statement came in with a somewhat hawkish tone, stating that policymakers are closer to tapering. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, however, depressed the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the statement as he said that there was still some way to go. While no decision on taper timing had been made, Powell said officials “expect further progress” but they are “clearly a ways away” from liftoff. Economists now expect that a reduction in asset purchases (taper) will not happen until early 2022.

The next gathering of the FOMC is September 21-22 but before that, Powell will speak at the August 26-28 conference in Jackson Hole. Fed chairs have sometimes used the venue to signal policy shifts.

As for day trades there was nothing to gain yesterday with momentum in the Forex market still lacking. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. Better trading conditions will come after the summer doldrums.

Traders will watch the U.S. GDP data today at 12:30 UTC but chances of big market moves are small.

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No Surprises Expected From The Fed

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain a steady policy course when it concludes its two-day FOMC meeting today. Fed officials are not expected to signal a reduction in support for the U.S. economy but will debate how to scale back massive bond purchases when the time comes.

Officials have pledged to maintain bond buying until the economy shows “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment as it recovers from the pandemic.

Meanwhile, pressure on Chair Jerome Powell to start the taper sooner rather than later has probably been eased by the recent slide in bond yields, as investors worry the spreading delta coronavirus variant could sap the recovery.

While we do not expect any major surprises from today’s policy decision, we prepare for potential price breakouts in both directions.

GBP/USD

The cable surged towards 1.39 and traders wonder whether this could be the limit. Despite the fact that the pair entered overbought territory in short-term time frames, it would need an unambiguously hawkish Fed statement to derail the recent bullish movement. In other words, as long as the pair holds steady above 1.37, chances remain in favor of a breakout above 1.39 and a run for 1.40.

EUR/USD

As expected, the euro strengthened towards 1.1850 and we anticipate bullish momentum to continue towards 1.1970-1.20, unless there is a hawkish surprise from the Fed which is less likely today. On the downside, the 1.1730-1.17 support remains intact.

We wish you good trades!

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