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Euro seems to be unstoppable

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Dear Traders,

The euro extended its gains for the second consecutive day and climbed above 1.1215 yesterday. During the Asian session the demand for euros seemed to be “unstoppable” and the common currency advanced significantly towards 1.13. Once the currency pair breaks above 1.13, it may head towards 1.14 and further 1.1450-67, which acts as a current key resistance. However, pullbacks within an intact upward trend could occur until 1.1215 and 1.1190.

In the meantime, the market’s reaction to Greek headlines concerning the resignation of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was muted. Tsipras called snap elections which could be held as soon as September 20. Since he has lost his majority in the Greek parliament , the election for the new Greek Parliament could strengthen his power and form a more manageable coalition government.

The pound sterling failed to set off in any specific direction and traded shy off the 1.57-border. The level around 1.5715 remains an important resistance zone for the time being whereas an upside break could release fresh bullish momentum towards 1.5770 and 1.58. 

Today, traders should keep an eye on the German and Eurozone PMI reports scheduled for release at 7:30 and 8:00 GMT. Furthermore, U.K.Public Finances (8:30 GMT) and U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (13:45 GMT) could be interesting reports to watch.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend!

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Euro stable, GBP may find bottom

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Dear Traders,

The Fed minutes had no significant impact on the U.S. dollar and failed to trigger any major market reaction. While most Federal Reserve officials believe that rates will rise in 2015, the central bank registered concern over Chinese growth pace and Greece. Policy makers saw the U.S. economy moving toward conditions that would justify an interest rate increase, while minutes also signaled a potential risk from China and Greece.

The euro remained stable above $ 1.10. Investors are still optimistic that a deal for Greece could be within reach. This is the last chance for Greece and Prime Alexis Tsipras has until midnight Thursday to present European leaders with a detailed economic reform plan in exchange for a new bailout. Once the full package has been put on the table, Eurogroup leaders will decide on a bailout extension at their Emergency Summit on Sunday.

The British Pound traded sharply lower against the greenback, marking a current support at 1.5330. It will now be interesting if GBP makes it again above 1.5420. We see a small hurdle at 1.5415 and a next resistance zone at 1.5465 until 1.5485. Below 1.5350 sterling may head for a test of 1.53.

The Bank of England is scheduled to decide on monetary policy today at 11:00 GMT. However, since no changes are expected, the impact on the British Pound should be insignificant.

U.S. Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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Euro recovered its losses after ‘No’ vote

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Dear Traders,

The euro slipped sharply to 1.0970 on Greece’s ‘No’ vote. Greece voted with a 61 percent majority against further austerity demanded by creditors, rejecting of further spending cuts and tax increases. While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras described the result as a “great victory”, seeing himself with a strengthened hand now, the result also significantly raises the chances of a Greek exit from the currency bloc. The euro group must now decide if a financial rescue of the country is still possible.

Euro-area leaders called for an emergency summit on Tuesday. The European Central Bank is meeting today to discuss extending its emergency credits to Greek lenders. As long as negotiations are ongoing between Greece and the euro group the ECB is unlikely to cut the emergency liquidity for Greek banks. The next important date is the July 20 deadline, when Greece is due to pay 3.5 billion euros to the ECB. A non-payment could lead to drastic steps such as an exit of the euro-area.

Even if contagion for other peripheral economies in the euro zone is likely to be contained, investors could remain risk-averse and wait and see what happens now.

The British Pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar last Friday. We see a next support at 1.55. With a significant break below 1.5480, sterling may slide towards 1.5430 and further 1.5350. Current resistances are seen at 1.5650 and 1.5770.

Apart from eurozone financial stability risks in the near term, market participants will keep an eye on the U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes from its June 16-17 meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of England is scheduled to decide on monetary policy on Thursday.

The most important piece of economic data this week will be the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, due for release today at 14:00 GMT.

We wish you a good start to the week and good trades.

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Crucial Week

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week which promises to be a week of fireworks. After the breakdown of Greek aid talks, markets will now have to deal with the possible effects for the eurozone. Currently it seems as if the optimists on a Greek debt deal were wrong after the weekend developments marked an abrupt turn from last week’s hopes. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shocked his counterparts with his call for a July 5 referendum on the austerity demanded by creditors, just a few days before the current bailout expires on Tuesday.

Greece declared a bank holiday until at least the national referendum and imposed capital controls to avert a financial collapse. Dark clouds may be looming on the financial sky, so traders should be prepared for strong market fluctuations this week.

The market will first focus on Greece and its IMF payment which is due on Tuesday. The rest of the week will focus on economic data, such as Eurozone Consumer Prices (Tuesday), ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday) and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls due for release on Thursday. U.S. markets will remain closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

EUR/USD

Based on the recent upward channel, the euro has still failed to break significantly to the downside. As long as the currency pair trades comfortable above 1.09, we do not see a technical stimuli for an aggressive sell-off. Once it breaks significantly below 1.09 we see greater chances for a drop towards 1.0810 and further 1.0720. A next key support zone could be at 1.0720-1.0660. However, if the support line proved able to withstand the pressure we see a current resistance area at around 1.1050. Above 1.1080 our focus will shift to the 1.12-level.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot29.6.15

Important economic data for today:

8:30 UK Net Consumer Credit & Mortgage Approvals

9:00 EUR Economic Confidence

12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

14:00 USA Pending Home Sales

We wish you many good trades and a profitable week.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co